Posted: 3/28/2013 11:02:55 AM EDT
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Assuming that things go hot over on the Korean peninsula, what could we realistically expect to see? I've heard all sorts of speculation, but haven't read anything that's more than internet chest pounding or out dated.
How strong is North Korea's artillery that's massed along the border? How much of it is in range of Seoul and it's population centers, and manufacturing centers? I have read everything from it's zeroed in on downtown and is capable of sending 60,000 rounds per minute over the border to it's not in range of the city and would only hit suburbs. How good is the US and South Korea's counter battery fire systems? Exactly what would it take to neutralize the Norks artillery? Do they have Chemical/Biological shells? Could the Norks push a massive infantry charge across the DMZ under a heavy artillery barrage? If not what assets do we have to stop them? The Norks claim to have Nuclear weapons. Do they have a delivery method to hit Seoul? Do the Norks have a credible air force? How about SAMs? I know many think the North Korean regime is a joke, but it appears that they could do some serious damage to South Korea and our forces based there before we could get things under control. Our military is damn good, but they are not invincible. |
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My assumption (I'm not a military expert), is that they've had over 60 years of time to setup their artillery to precisely hit our camps and positions close to the DMZ; they also have tunnels underground to move under our minefields; with Seoul so close to the DMZ; they will setup a massive charge under the cover of artillery and rockets and will advance through within the first 24-48 hours in the middle of the confusion; they will probably take Seoul or be close enough to barrage the city until our air forces can be deployed from bases in the south, along with our assets in Okinawa, mainland Japan and Guam. Once our air assets are in theather, then we'll gain air superiority and begin to force the Norks back to the 38th Parallel; combined US/ROK ground forces will bear the brunt of the onslaught and will suffer a lot of casualties, mainly because of the suprise artillery bombardment.
A good book to read would be "PROUD LEGIONS" by John Antal. |
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Speed is the primary factor. If the North could capture/overun the south and take control of the country in a short time they would be in the drivers seat.
Would the world place sanctions on the entire Korean peninsula? Make the south suffer with the north? How about China? What would their take on it be? Tell the rest of the world to stay out or risk getting into a conflict with them also. Not sure they would do that but what if? Would we come in a try to take the South back again? Not like we have a land connection to set up our forces on, like in the middle east. Set up in Japan? |
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Pesonally I think North Korea is a paper tiger. They may have the artillery assets but how willing are the troops willing to die for President Sugar Cookie?
You have to believe the artillery assets are ancient, not maintained and the stocks of shells haven't been replaced in years, possibly decades. And easily taken out by air bombardment. |
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With the previous NK Leader I think it was safe to assume the threats made against the USA or others were blind threats..
Even here I keep hearing how a lot of ppl still think that is the case with the new leader With this new leader my thoughts are no one really knows for certain what might happen, he is young and probably feels he needs to prove himself. I think another Korean war is definitely possible, if that happens I could see a draft started up again. my 2 cents. |
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My assumption (I'm not a military expert), is that they've had over 60 years of time to setup their artillery to precisely hit our camps and positions close to the DMZ; they also have tunnels underground to move under our minefields; with Seoul so close to the DMZ; they will setup a massive charge under the cover of artillery and rockets and will advance through within the first 24-48 hours in the middle of the confusion; they will probably take Seoul or be close enough to barrage the city until our air forces can be deployed from bases in the south, along with our assets in Okinawa, mainland Japan and Guam. Once our air assets are in theather, then we'll gain air superiority and begin to force the Norks back to the 38th Parallel; combined US/ROK ground forces will bear the brunt of the onslaught and will suffer a lot of casualties, mainly because of the suprise artillery bombardment. A good book to read would be "PROUD LEGIONS" by John Antal. In other words, if something were to happen, we'd looking at the first really bloody conventional war since Vietnam. |
China is definitely the wild card. If SHTF and the Chinese are smart, they'll leave the NKs to their own devices (AKA getting their undernourished asses handed to them by the South Koreans), and probably get some nice goodies out the FBHO for keeping their noses out of it. If the Chinese for whatever reason decide to get frisky... things could get really shitty. Interesting times indeed. 
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The Korean war never ended. They have been fighting every night on the DMZ.
How strong is North Korea's artillery that's massed along the border? Very Strong dug in Artillery How much of it is in range of Seoul and it's population centers, and manufacturing centers? They can hit northern Seoul with Artillery. How good is the US and South Korea's counter battery fire systems? We can find them that's all I'll say. 
Exactly what would it take to neutralize the Norks artillery? Artillery is dug in fortified positions. Do they have Chemical/Biological shells? Some Could the Norks push a massive infantry charge across the DMZ under a heavy artillery barrage? Yes but they would get stuck in traffic. 
They don't have the fuel to drive to Seoul. If not what assets do we have to stop them? OPSEC The Norks claim to have Nuclear weapons. Do they have a delivery method to hit Seoul? Delivery yes hit a target and have it go off no. Do the Norks have a credible air force? Air force yes Credible no. How about SAMs? yes but dated Our military is damn good, but they are not invincible. ROK has an great military also. |
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Assuming that things go hot over on the Korean peninsula, what could we realistically expect to see? I've heard all sorts of speculation, but haven't read anything that's more than internet chest pounding or out dated. How strong is North Korea's artillery that's massed along the border? How much of it is in range of Seoul and it's population centers, and manufacturing centers? I have read everything from it's zeroed in on downtown and is capable of sending 60,000 rounds per minute over the border to it's not in range of the city and would only hit suburbs. How good is the US and South Korea's counter battery fire systems? Exactly what would it take to neutralize the Norks artillery? Do they have Chemical/Biological shells? Could the Norks push a massive infantry charge across the DMZ under a heavy artillery barrage? If not what assets do we have to stop them? The Norks claim to have Nuclear weapons. Do they have a delivery method to hit Seoul? Do the Norks have a credible air force? How about SAMs? I know many think the North Korean regime is a joke, but it appears that they could do some serious damage to South Korea and our forces based there before we could get things under control. Our military is damn good, but they are not invincible. It depends on how much support North Korea gets from China and Russia, and how much advanced weaponry they were able to obtain from China and Russia over the past few years. There are some reports that North Korea has the S-300/HQ 9 system, and may also have some UAV's from China. |
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Starts with hot arty tubes and several million Seoul residents and soldiers pulped.
NorK land invasion of SoK eventually stopped by lack of supply and air power. Ends with NorK looking much like a moonscape, and Caterpillar/Hyundai machines cutting mass graves on both sides. Can't end well any way one looks at it. |
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Quoted: My assumption (I'm not a military expert), is that they've had over 60 years of time to setup their artillery to precisely hit our camps and positions close to the DMZ; they also have tunnels underground to move under our minefields; with Seoul so close to the DMZ; they will setup a massive charge under the cover of artillery and rockets and will advance through within the first 24-48 hours in the middle of the confusion; they will probably take Seoul or be close enough to barrage the city until our air forces can be deployed from bases in the south, along with our assets in Okinawa, mainland Japan and Guam. Once our air assets are in theather, then we'll gain air superiority and begin to force the Norks back to the 38th Parallel; combined US/ROK ground forces will bear the brunt of the onslaught and will suffer a lot of casualties, mainly because of the suprise artillery bombardment. A good book to read would be "PROUD LEGIONS" by John Antal. Initial casualties would be devastating. After that it would get one sided in a hurry. |
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Speed is the primary factor. If the North could capture/overun the south and take control of the country in a short time they would be in the drivers seat. Would the world place sanctions on the entire Korean peninsula? Make the south suffer with the north? How about China? What would their take on it be? Tell the rest of the world to stay out or risk getting into a conflict with them also. Not sure they would do that but what if? Would we come in a try to take the South back again? Not like we have a land connection to set up our forces on, like in the middle east. Set up in Japan? Would we take the South back? Great question. I think the US public would be very resistant to spending American lives and dollars on South Korea. Been there, done that, have the casualties. |
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Pesonally I think North Korea is a paper tiger. They may have the artillery assets but how willing are the troops willing to die for President Sugar Cookie? You have to believe the artillery assets are ancient, not maintained and the stocks of shells haven't been replaced in years, possibly decades. And easily taken out by air bombardment. Are they? I've read that they have hardened bunkers/caves that they can push the tubes back in to shelter from an air attack. Also, if they have the number of tubes they claim to, it would take a long time to neutralize them all. Especially if the environment has SAMs that could make things difficult for our guys in the air. |
| Seoul suffers heavy casualties until we are able to suppress all their arty. The Norks would otherwise have a short but exciting war. Then the interesting part begins; the post-war. Mass starvation in North Korea, floods of refugees, an insurgency against South Korean/US/UN occupation forces, China maybe comes south and sets up a buffer zone...who knows. |
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Kim Jong Jun Juck Whatever is just rattling that tired old dusty sabre because he sees Obama throwing hundreds of millions at everyone else for no good reason and figures get some while the gettin's good.
Same old song and dance......looking for cash or at least a food and oil deal. NK isn't going to do anything, IMO |
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They will all throw down their guns as soon as they see the opulence of Seoul. Like the Panmunjom food market and Oh Pal Pal red light district. I recall reading stories from the war about NORKs and PLA soldiers overrunning American positions and then getting cut down by the soldiers/Marines when the commies hit the food supplies/field kitchens and suddenly stopped fighting so they could eat. |
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Nothing. The Norks can't do shit. Just like Saddam's cronies, there's the lies that the leader tells, and then there's the lies told to the leader. The latter is greater than the former. The guys at the top THINK they have a bunch of stuff they simply don't have. Crack open Google Maps and go take a look. MAYBE there is artillery there but either their tunnels go all the way to the Chinese border or they aren't moving much of it. And, they sure ass fuck don't have the ability to move troops in big numbers. Deployment of anti-personnel mines from the air and attacking in back via the sea would stop them almost immediately. You don't build up a biggass army that is effective by being an isolated little shitty economy for 50 years. It won't come to a fight though. China is in a lose-lose situation if it comes to a fight. |
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Quoted: Pesonally I think North Korea is a paper tiger. They may have the artillery assets but how willing are the troops willing to die for President Sugar Cookie? You have to believe the artillery assets are ancient, not maintained and the stocks of shells haven't been replaced in years, possibly decades. And easily taken out by air bombardment. If you have to ask that, you don't know much about the DPRK. They literally think that the Kims are Gods. I'm currently reading a book written by a defector who spent 10 years in one of their prison camps. When he grew up in North Korea, everyone believed that Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il didn't urinate or defecate. They couldn't imagine a God doing such a thing. The arty near the DMZ is in hardened shelters, dug into mountains. The guns are on rails, and will roll out to fire, then roll back. It's 1950's tech but they have a metric fuck ton of it.
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Quoted: Quoted: Speed is the primary factor. If the North could capture/overun the south and take control of the country in a short time they would be in the drivers seat. Would the world place sanctions on the entire Korean peninsula? Make the south suffer with the north? How about China? What would their take on it be? Tell the rest of the world to stay out or risk getting into a conflict with them also. Not sure they would do that but what if? Would we come in a try to take the South back again? Not like we have a land connection to set up our forces on, like in the middle east. Set up in Japan? Would we take the South back? Great question. I think the US public would be very resistant to spending American lives and dollars on South Korea. Been there, done that, have the casualties. We'd have to take it back in the extremely unlikely scenario that the Norks managed to roll all the way down the peninsula. There's multiple reasons why it wouldn't be optional. |
| The spooky thing is, both Koreas have relatively new leadership, and both are eager to prove themselves. With all this chest thumping, shit can go wrong in a hurry. I can see what would otherwise be a skirmish getting out of hand very quickly, considering the tensions and postures |
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Pesonally I think North Korea is a paper tiger. They may have the artillery assets but how willing are the troops willing to die for President Sugar Cookie? You have to believe the artillery assets are ancient, not maintained and the stocks of shells haven't been replaced in years, possibly decades. And easily taken out by air bombardment. If you have to ask that, you don't know much about the DPRK. They literally think that the Kims are Gods. I'm currently reading a book written by a defector who spent 10 years in one of their prison camps. When he grew up in North Korea, everyone believed that Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il didn't urinate or defecate. They couldn't imagine a God doing such a thing. The arty near the DMZ is in hardened shelters, dug into mountains. The guns are on rails, and will roll out to fire, then roll back. It's 1950's tech but they have a metric fuck ton of it. Maybe you are right about loyalty to the Kims, but I am hearing they are having big issues with black markets and people immigrating. Wouldn't loyalists not use the black market and be escaping into China? |
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It looks like NK could attack and do terrible damage to the South, and perhaps even defeat the SK army in the field before large scale American reinforcements can arrive. Holding the entire Korean peninsula without major re supply from an outside power does not look like it is possible. The American counterattack would be earth shaking even without nukes.
So the only realistic way this could work out for NK is if China provides support or if America folds. If not, the end result would be death, exile, or war crimes trials for the NK leadership. |
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My assumption (I'm not a military expert), is that they've had over 60 years of time to setup their artillery to precisely hit our camps and positions close to the DMZ; they also have tunnels underground to move under our minefields; with Seoul so close to the DMZ; they will setup a massive charge under the cover of artillery and rockets and will advance through within the first 24-48 hours in the middle of the confusion; they will probably take Seoul or be close enough to barrage the city until our air forces can be deployed from bases in the south, along with our assets in Okinawa, mainland Japan and Guam. Once our air assets are in theather, then we'll gain air superiority and begin to force the Norks back to the 38th Parallel; combined US/ROK ground forces will bear the brunt of the onslaught and will suffer a lot of casualties, mainly because of the suprise artillery bombardment. A good book to read would be "PROUD LEGIONS" by John Antal. In other words, if something were to happen, we'd looking at the first really bloody conventional war since Vietnam. doubtful. we have the tools to destroy them without a large invasion. the country is tired of sending soldiers to bring democracy to heathens and its about time we used some of our smaller nukes. if you could decapitate the top of the NK government, and make a deal with china for raw resources in NK (supposedly they have a bunch) and let the south take up the burden of rebuilding the north you could solve the whole problem in less than a year. |
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My assumption (I'm not a military expert), is that they've had over 60 years of time to setup their artillery to precisely hit our camps and positions close to the DMZ; they also have tunnels underground to move under our minefields; with Seoul so close to the DMZ; they will setup a massive charge under the cover of artillery and rockets and will advance through within the first 24-48 hours in the middle of the confusion; they will probably take Seoul or be close enough to barrage the city until our air forces can be deployed from bases in the south, along with our assets in Okinawa, mainland Japan and Guam. Once our air assets are in theather, then we'll gain air superiority and begin to force the Norks back to the 38th Parallel; combined US/ROK ground forces will bear the brunt of the onslaught and will suffer a lot of casualties, mainly because of the suprise artillery bombardment. A good book to read would be "PROUD LEGIONS" by John Antal. In other words, if something were to happen, we'd looking at the first really bloody conventional war since Vietnam. doubtful. we have the tools to destroy them without a large invasion. the country is tired of sending soldiers to bring democracy to heathens and its about time we used some of our smaller nukes. if you could decapitate the top of the NK government, and make a deal with china for raw resources in NK (supposedly they have a bunch) and let the south take up the burden of rebuilding the north you could solve the whole problem in less than a year. If they have the artillery power to totally blitz Seoul and US and S. Korean troop positions in an initial artillery barrage, things could get very bloody very quick. They would be on the offensive, and it would be up to the US and the S. Koreans to push them back. Nukes on Pyongyang to kill their leadership would be a quick way to end it, but I don't think China would take kindly to that. Plus I don't think the US would use nukes first. The only scenario that I could see the US using nukes is if the Norks lobbed a bunch of gas shells into Seoul and into US troop positions.... |
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In my humble opinion, the North could wipe out Seoul with artillery. They could over run the south, but could not hold it. If the north starts a hot war there is no doubt Nukes will be used by us. The losses on both sides would be horrifying. I agree....The north will try to collapse the world economy by trying to nuke Seoul and Tokyo. |
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They will all throw down their guns as soon as they see the opulence of Seoul. Like the Panmunjom food market and Oh Pal Pal red light district. I recall reading stories from the war about NORKs and PLA soldiers overrunning American positions and then getting cut down by the soldiers/Marines when the commies hit the food supplies/field kitchens and suddenly stopped fighting so they could eat. Other than their spy's and a few Spec-Ops most of them have no idea what the rest of the world is like. Even though for Norks the soldiers are better fed than the civilians, none of them have seen anything near what Seoul has to offer. Seoul is huge and it has everything anyone could ever want, food, women, luxury, it's an adult playground on top of being the New York of the Korea Peninsula. If they invaded, I think most of them would stop fighting and just wander around aimlessly, in awe. I wander around aimlessly in awe and I have been to 100's of cities and nearly 40 different countries...Seoul blows my mind. |
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In my humble opinion, the North could wipe out Seoul with artillery. They could over run the south, but could not hold it. If the north starts a hot war there is no doubt Nukes will be used by us. The losses on both sides would be horrifying. I agree....The north will try to collapse the world economy by trying to nuke Seoul and Tokyo. And it would be a disaster either way you look at it. As intertwined as the world economy is, Seoul being devastated would sink the already fragile world economy. |
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Quoted: If they have the artillery power to totally blitz Seoul and US and S. Korean troop positions in an initial artillery barrage, things could get very bloody very quick. They would be on the offensive, and it would be up to the US and the S. Koreans to push them back. Nukes on Pyongyang to kill their leadership would be a quick way to end it, but I don't think China would take kindly to that. Plus I don't think the US would use nukes first. The only scenario that I could see the US using nukes is if the Norks lobbed a bunch of gas shells into Seoul and into US troop positions.... They don't. They can just about hit the Northern suburbs and after the first salvo everyone is in bomb shelters. The approaches to Seoul from the north are limited and easy to block/defend. If NK used chemical weapons/nukes on US troops it would only take a couple of B-52s to depopulate the north side of the DMZ with 3 megatons of nuke equipped cruise missiles per plane.
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We were told there would be a 95% casualty rate at our location within the first 48 hours. The 5% that would live would be the pilots in the air.
None of what I saw in S. Korea is very hardened. N. Korea would pretty much win the inital war, then get bombed into oblivion in the second part of the war. |
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The ONLY thing I am certain of is that.............
The S. Korean Army will fall. The Govt of S. Korea will ask for help. America will ride to the rescue. Americans will die in a foreign land. Protecting the interest of American businesses and the rich S. Koreans. Repeat. Aloha, Mark |
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north korea has the largest army in the world. I think this would actually be a good thing. Unlike Afghanistan, where we don't know who our targets are, north korea would have huge lots of soldiers all wearing nicely ironed uniforms that might as well be bulls eyes. Also, we wouldn't have to worry about trying to set up a police force or government. Just wipe out everyone and be done with it. I think it would be a much easier war to fight
Also, unlike the norks, we don't parade around all our war tactics. Some sure, but im willing to be our government has a few secrets for fighting north korea that isn't public |
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If I were wargaming it I'd assume Nork attacks on US bases in the region, especially airbases in Japan, Okinowa, and Guam, including commando attacks. Long artillery barrages and use of bio and chem, possibly nuke weapons.
They'd need fuel to get to Pusan and I don't think they have the gas or transport to make it that far. US airpower grinds down emplaced troops and C4I sites, and then the Norks collapse. The actions of the Chinese are an open question. That's assuming no other countries are involved. If the Norks had anything on the ball they'd coordinate with Iran or China. |
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north korea has the largest army in the world. I think this would actually be a good thing. Unlike Afghanistan, where we don't know who our targets are, north korea would have huge lots of soldiers all wearing nicely ironed uniforms that might as well be bulls eyes. Also, we wouldn't have to worry about trying to set up a police force or government. Just wipe out everyone and be done with it. I think it would be a much easier war to fight Also, unlike the norks, we don't parade around all our war tactics. Some sure, but im willing to be our government has a few secrets for fighting north korea that isn't public 3rd largest AFAIK, but still.. Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile |
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1) NK refugees would sweep into China across the border. China doesn't want that.
2) It will give China an excuse to make moves elsewhere while we're focused on NK 3) The SK people know that the NK has them by the balls - and can do serious damage to Seoul (up to and including nukes). This is why the SK people are VERY hesitant to do anything to the NKs. 4) The NKs aren't dumb. They have run pretty amazing operations in SK and definitely have sleeper cells ready to jump into action. 5) We'll eventually win - but it may cost a LOT of US and SK lives. 6) If war breaks out, NK will definitely TRY to nuke the West Coast of the US. Fortunately our missile defense... sucks... There's an interesting book worth checking out by an American author that teaches History in SK. It talks about the NK's mindset and outlook which is... unique. The Cleanest Race: How North Koreans See Themselves and Why it Matters Book TV discussion with the author Slate Article on the book - A Nation of Racist Dwarfs Kim Jong-il's regime is even weirder and more despicable than you thought. - By the late Christopher Hitchens |
| It would be nice if we could depose Kim and free the people of N. Korea. Of course, then they'd have the same situation as when E. Germany was opened up and all those poor commies flooded into W. Germany. Guess they could put them to work at PMC churning out ammo for the U.S. commercial market. |
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As someone who was with 2ID for a year, and on the DMZ for much of that time, I think the North believes they could do it.
That is an important distinction, as they knew with every president previous, that any invasion of the south would be met with nukes. Obama has publicly stated that the US policy of a nuclear reprisal for any chemical attack against the US or its allies is void. He has also stated that he may not respond with nukes if we or our allies are attacked. He did not punish the north when they tested rockets over Japan. Dont think for a minute that we shot down anything they had. Additionally, he has allowed several incursions by multiple nations/groups into our air and sea space, without reprisal. He has failed to take strong actions against enemies in the middle east, dont think the NK didnt notice his non-response to the latest sept 11 attack in Benghazi. It is a matter of public record that he does not attend his own daily presidential security briefs, as he is too busy and can cimply get the same info on his tablet... I think the new child in charge in the north sees Obama as many of us do;totally impetant(sp?), and unwilling to substantially defend the US, much less it's allies, as he views the West, and the US in particular, as racist, anti-environment, and elitists who have taken advantage of the worlds poor in order to create our wealth here. The ROK forces are strong, but the NK artillery lined up within the DMZ alone will make you swallow hard when you see it at night, when they open the doors and stick those tubes out. NK infantry is fanatical, and worships their leader, regardless of the condition of the people. They have made other improvements to their comm, armor, air defense, logistics, etc. They will fight as a combined arms team this time. The key question is: "Do THEY think they can do it"? I believe they see this as the best opportunity to start a hot war again on the peninsula, since they tried to attack and kill the SK president during TET. That is another story, one you do not read about, but I am convinced the global communists tied that attack to the TET offensive in Vietnam on purpose. If the murder of the SK president had succeeded, they would have invaded in '68, and the American public would not have had a stomach for two wars. Sound familiar? |
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north korea has the largest army in the world. I think this would actually be a good thing. Unlike Afghanistan, where we don't know who our targets are, north korea would have huge lots of soldiers all wearing nicely ironed uniforms that might as well be bulls eyes. Also, we wouldn't have to worry about trying to set up a police force or government. Just wipe out everyone and be done with it. I think it would be a much easier war to fight Also, unlike the norks, we don't parade around all our war tactics. Some sure, but im willing to be our government has a few secrets for fighting north korea that isn't public FWIW, the NKPA has a highly developed special operations program, constantly has infiltrators in the south, has cells in the south, and will absolutely blend in with civilian refugee groups/other to accomplish strategic objectives, especially in the initial hours of any attack. It will not be a simple turkey shoot. |
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north korea has the largest army in the world. I think this would actually be a good thing. Unlike Afghanistan, where we don't know who our targets are, north korea would have huge lots of soldiers all wearing nicely ironed uniforms that might as well be bulls eyes. Also, we wouldn't have to worry about trying to set up a police force or government. Just wipe out everyone and be done with it. I think it would be a much easier war to fight Also, unlike the norks, we don't parade around all our war tactics. Some sure, but im willing to be our government has a few secrets for fighting north korea that isn't public 3rd largest AFAIK, but still.. Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile 3rd largest active duty military. 1st largest if you count reserves. If they were in an active war, you can be your sweet ass that those reserves would be called to duty along with anyone else between the ages of 7 and 70 |
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The Bluffer's Guide to North Korea should be mandatory before replying to one of these threads.
Bluffer's Guide; North Korea Strikes! You can open the .kmz file in Google Earth (if you already have GE it will automatically open in your Temp Folder. It shows all the artillery & missile firing locations and ranges as well as airbases and such. It cuts out some of the bullshit propagated by 50 years of bullshit rumors. |