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AR15.COM
11/5/2012 9:07:11 AM EDT
49-48... ROMNEY
11/5/2012 9:08:40 AM EDT
[#1]
Margin of error aka voter fraud and all that, not to mention the electoral college, could favor Obama.

I am hopeful, but I'm not gonna hold my breath.
11/5/2012 9:09:03 AM EDT
[#2]
nationwide polls are useless, show me the swing states.
11/5/2012 9:09:28 AM EDT
[#3]
It ain't going to be that close...
11/5/2012 9:10:56 AM EDT
[#4]
So +5 R down to +1 R in a week.  Pretty sure that Gallup didn't want to stick their neck out as the outlier.
11/5/2012 9:11:31 AM EDT
[#5]
Is that going off of voter turnout from last election?
11/5/2012 9:14:12 AM EDT
[#6]
Source?  Link?  Polling method?  Registered voters or likely voters?  More information is needed other to give the numbers any relevance.
11/5/2012 10:21:28 AM EDT
[#7]





Quoted:



Source?  Link?  Polling method?  Registered voters or likely voters?  More information is needed other to give the numbers any relevance.



Ah, I think that since this was a Gallup poll, you could try that Google thing and look up gallup.com.





 
11/5/2012 10:39:23 AM EDT
[#8]
Quoted:

Quoted:
Source?  Link?  Polling method?  Registered voters or likely voters?  More information is needed other to give the numbers any relevance.

Ah, I think that since this was a Gallup poll, you could try that Google thing and look up gallup.com.
 


http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx
11/5/2012 10:41:28 AM EDT
[#9]

11/5/2012 10:43:00 AM EDT
[#10]
49% 46% Obama for registered voters. Just leave that part out though...
11/5/2012 10:44:48 AM EDT
[#11]
Quoted:
49% 46% Obama for registered voters. Just leave that part out though...


Registered voter polls are less accurate than likely voter polls. Just leave that part out though...
11/5/2012 10:47:46 AM EDT
[#12]




Quoted:

nationwide polls are useless, show me the swing states.




OK





FL: R 52% O 47%...



MI: R 47% O 46%...



VA: R 50% O 48%...



OH: O 49% R 49%...





And that is with D+3  to D+ 8 methodology.



PA was tied last I saw as well.
11/5/2012 10:49:44 AM EDT
[#13]
Quoted:
So +5 R down to +1 R in a week.  Pretty sure that Gallup didn't want to stick their neck out as the outlier.


Right on the money.  Pollsters don't want to look bad in the future, so lets just call it to close to call.  I hope this backfires bigtime.
11/5/2012 10:49:50 AM EDT
[#14]



Quoted:





Quoted:

nationwide polls are useless, show me the swing states.




OK





FL: R 52% O 47%...



MI: R 47% O 46%...



VA: R 50% O 48%...



OH: O 49% R 49%...





And that is with D+3  to D+ 8 methodology.



PA was tied last I saw as well.


The sample data is so skewed in favor of dem turnout and yet the polls are showing Romney with a lead.  I don't know why so many people are completely ignoring this fact.



Willful ignorance?

 
11/5/2012 10:50:32 AM EDT
[#15]
I'm going out to buy a gallon of Jack Daniels just for this event tomorrow.    

I'm torn, though!  Do I drink the night away for celebration/depression, or do I stay sober in case Romney wins and SHTF with rioters?   Decisions decisions
11/5/2012 1:05:12 PM EDT
[#16]




Quoted:





Quoted:

Source? Link? Polling method? Registered voters or likely voters? More information is needed other to give the numbers any relevance.


Ah, I think that since this was a Gallup poll, you could try that Google thing and look up gallup.com.





Or people could actually put in the details needed to make their post relevant.  Would it really have been that hard to add "Gallup's final pre-election survey of likely voters" and a link to http://www.gallup.com/poll/158519/romney-obama-gallup-final-election-survey.aspx
11/5/2012 1:07:33 PM EDT
[#17]




Quoted:





Quoted:





Quoted:

nationwide polls are useless, show me the swing states.




OK





FL: R 52% O 47%...



MI: R 47% O 46%...



VA: R 50% O 48%...



OH: O 49% R 49%...





And that is with D+3 to D+ 8 methodology.



PA was tied last I saw as well.


The sample data is so skewed in favor of dem turnout and yet the polls are showing Romney with a lead. I don't know why so many people are completely ignoring this fact.





Willful ignorance?


They're assuming the same thing the pollsters are assuming:  That Obama will enjoy a huge turnout tomorrow like he did in 2008.



If that happens then it will be a miracle for him.

11/5/2012 1:21:14 PM EDT
[#18]
Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:

Quoted:
nationwide polls are useless, show me the swing states.


OK


FL: R 52% O 47%...

MI: R 47% O 46%...

VA: R 50% O 48%...

OH: O 49% R 49%...


And that is with D+3 to D+ 8 methodology.

PA was tied last I saw as well.

The sample data is so skewed in favor of dem turnout and yet the polls are showing Romney with a lead. I don't know why so many people are completely ignoring this fact.

Willful ignorance?

They're assuming the same thing the pollsters are assuming:  That Obama will enjoy a huge turnout tomorrow like he did in 2008.

If that happens then it will be a miracle for him.



Not going to happen - that is why they are screaming about voter suppression already.  They are going to claim the lack of enthusiasm reflects the evil GOP denying legitimate votes.
11/5/2012 6:49:51 PM EDT
[#19]
Quoted:
49% 46% Obama for registered voters. Just leave that part out though...


Registered voters mean fuck-all.
11/5/2012 6:55:29 PM EDT
[#20]
Quoted:
I'm going out to buy a gallon of Jack Daniels just for this event tomorrow.    

I'm torn, though!  Do I drink the night away for celebration/depression, or do I stay sober in case Romney wins and SHTF with rioters?   Decisions decisions


You've got time.  They won't show up in your neighborhood until they are finished burning their own down first.
11/5/2012 7:00:18 PM EDT
[#21]
Quoted:
I'm going out to buy a gallon of Jack Daniels just for this event tomorrow.    

I'm torn, though!  Do I drink the night away for celebration/depression, or do I stay sober in case Romney wins and SHTF with rioters?   Decisions decisions


Oh I'll be drinking something.

There won't be any riots in my neighborhood.  Then again, I won't be surprised if we all go to bed not knowing.

Going to bed now, gotta get up early and vote
11/5/2012 7:07:30 PM EDT
[#22]



Quoted:





Quoted:




Quoted:

nationwide polls are useless, show me the swing states.




OK





FL: R 52% O 47%...



MI: R 47% O 46%...



VA: R 50% O 48%...



OH: O 49% R 49%...





And that is with D+3  to D+ 8 methodology.



PA was tied last I saw as well.


The sample data is so skewed in favor of dem turnout and yet the polls are showing Romney with a lead.  I don't know why so many people are completely ignoring this fact.



Willful ignorance?  


No one is ignoring and they aren't skewed, it reflects the people they polled.  They didn't say, "lets keep calling people till we get more democrats."

 



One thing you should understand is that there has been a slide of republicans going to independent.  This is one of the reasons you see them going heavily Romney and why there are more democrats when polling then republicans.  
11/5/2012 7:10:14 PM EDT
[#23]
Quoted:
49% 46% Obama for registered voters. Just leave that part out though...


21 posts in your month of membership, huh?

11/5/2012 7:15:51 PM EDT
[#24]
I'm with the people that think Gallup and Rasmussen don't want to stick their necks out. The media will hold onto anything that shows it's close for the ratings rather than journalistic integrity. Either way, Romney is going to win tomorrow.
11/5/2012 7:17:11 PM EDT
[#25]
Quoted:
Quoted:
49% 46% Obama for registered voters. Just leave that part out though...


21 posts in your month of membership, huh?



I hope the other 20 were better than that one
11/5/2012 7:17:41 PM EDT
[#26]
Quoted:
49-48... ROMNEY


It's the electoral college that matters.
11/5/2012 7:20:45 PM EDT
[#27]
Quoted:

One thing you should understand is that there has been a slide of republicans going to independent.  


Respectfully, Rassmussen announced today that self-identified Republicans are at a record high percentage of the electorate since 2002 (when he started polling partisan trends).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends