[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Facebook freefall: When will it end? (Page 1 of 2)
Posted: 5/31/2012 7:08:53 AM EDT
|
The horror. The horror.
27 bucks and falling |
Bill Gates will wake up at some point and buy a majority share 
Seriously, Facebook has a lot going for it as a potential money cow but they just need to start doing something to figure out how to do just that. Then those that do get in at the bottom - wherever that may be - may well become very wealthy people! I just wish I had bought Apple when it hit bottom back around 2000 or so! |
|
Quoted:
It is worth around $7 a share according to their P/E, from what I've read experts say. I've heard this as well and it makes sense if you look at it strictly from a P/E ratio, but I think there will be support higher than that myself....I'll pull a number out of my ass and say that it will drop to between 15 and 20, stay there for awhile while people wait to see if they actually make any money. Then it will shit then bed when they figure out they just aren't a profitable company. |
|
When will it end?
When people realize that Facebook produces nothing tangible, that the vast majority of people browsing the internet never click on internet ads and are usually just annoyed by them, that eCommerce isn't like impulse buying from the candy rack while you stand in the grocery store check-out line, that people aren't willing to pay a user fee for a social networking site, that Facebook will be replaced by the next best thing in social media once it comes along, then it will end with Facebook's value at $0. Just the opinion of an average Joe (who doesn't use Facebook or any social media BTW). |
|
Quoted:
Quoted:
It is worth around $7 a share according to their P/E, from what I've read experts say. I've heard this as well and it makes sense if you look at it strictly from a P/E ratio, but I think there will be support higher than that myself....I'll pull a number out of my ass and say that it will drop to between 15 and 20, stay there for awhile while people wait to see if they actually make any money. Then it will shit then bed when they figure out they just aren't a profitable company. I think it will settle around $12-15 |
|
Quoted:
When will it end? When people realize that Facebook produces nothing tangible, that the vast majority of people browsing the internet never click on internet ads and are usually just annoyed by them, that eCommerce isn't like impulse buying from the candy rack while you stand in the grocery store check-out line, that people aren't willing to pay a user fee for a social networking site, that Facebook will be replaced by the next best thing in social media once it comes along, then it will end with Facebook's value at $0. Just the opinion of an average Joe (who doesn't use Facebook or any social media BTW). 
I suppose there's no use in any sort of advertising, nobody buys anything based off of TV commercials! Facebook is overvalued. It doesn't have zero value. |
|
Quoted:
I would say $15 is not out of the question. The hard part of any prediction is "WHEN." Sure, it will hit zero... if you wait long enough. 
My guess is that as real data comes in, the existing price will continue to lack support until the $15 range. The problem with that, is that so many people are taking a bath on it, and so many Big Money hedges got out, that there will be an after-taste that clings to this stock for a long time. It has failure written all over it right now. I think that once the $20 threshold is reached, psychological factors will further crush it into the single-digits within 1-2 months as general consensus thinks it's "Game Over." Afterall, this is a young company without long-term earnings or any real way of predicting future earnings - so there will be a period of great uncertainty with the company and the stock. Likewise, the longer this takes, the more likely another fashionable start-up will appear and steal market share. Facebook's greatest risk right now is not driving away customers with adds or even modest fees (see: Apple), it's only real risk is getting MySpaced and becoming uncool relative to the Next Big Thing. I'll bet FB could make a new mobile app, charge $3 per install and make a killing. For now, I think the FB user crowd is pretty loyal and heavilty invested (think photos, friends, feeling important, etc) and the younger kids are all hooked on it also - so there is upside, but as with any investment I think we'll see historical lows within the next 6-10 months before the creep back upwards... assuming Zuck doesn't do something really stupid (and I figure it's only a 60/40 chance of him not doing something really, really stupid in the face of overwhelming public negativity). |
|
Quoted:
When will it end? When people realize that Facebook produces nothing tangible, that the vast majority of people browsing the internet never click on internet ads and are usually just annoyed by them, that eCommerce isn't like impulse buying from the candy rack while you stand in the grocery store check-out line, that people aren't willing to pay a user fee for a social networking site, that Facebook will be replaced by the next best thing in social media once it comes along, then it will end with Facebook's value at $0. Just the opinion of an average Joe (who doesn't use Facebook or any social media BTW). Perhaps you should use it. Facebook's value is in data-mining. Those ads you talk about...I click them. I get ads for sales on Silencer Co. Silencers, Ranier Arms sales, ect. Facebook sees that I like stickman, noveskee, tnvc, etc and tailor the ads to me. I don't have to go looking for sales, I just log into facebook and they tell me what the current deals are that I would be interested in. |
|
This.
And I despise social media. Dumbing down of society at large. Quoted:
When will it end? When people realize that Facebook produces nothing tangible, that the vast majority of people browsing the internet never click on internet ads and are usually just annoyed by them, that eCommerce isn't like impulse buying from the candy rack while you stand in the grocery store check-out line, that people aren't willing to pay a user fee for a social networking site, that Facebook will be replaced by the next best thing in social media once it comes along, then it will end with Facebook's value at $0. Just the opinion of an average Joe (who doesn't use Facebook or any social media BTW). |
|
Quoted: ... but as with any investment I think we'll see historical lows within the next 6-10 months before the creep back upwards... Here's a story mentioning Facebook lockup period The onslaught of Facebook stock looks like an avalanche. At the 91-day point after the IPO, insiders are able to sell 268 million shares of stock. Between 91 and 181 days after the IPO, insiders can sell an additional 137 million shares. And then after 181 days following the IPO, another 1.2 billion shares are free to be sold. FB would be creeping back up, from $8.50 to $9, maybe. |
|
Quoted: Quoted: When will it end? When people realize that Facebook produces nothing tangible, that the vast majority of people browsing the internet never click on internet ads and are usually just annoyed by them, that eCommerce isn't like impulse buying from the candy rack while you stand in the grocery store check-out line, that people aren't willing to pay a user fee for a social networking site, that Facebook will be replaced by the next best thing in social media once it comes along, then it will end with Facebook's value at $0. Just the opinion of an average Joe (who doesn't use Facebook or any social media BTW). I suppose there's no use in any sort of advertising, nobody buys anything based off of TV commercials! Facebook is overvalued. It doesn't have zero value. What is MySpace trading for these days? |
| My opinion: it will fall to a reasonable valuation for a growth company in the tech industry. I think it will end up around $14/share (which puts them at a P/E of about 30) and then future price appreciation will depend on how their earnings hold up and what revenue growth they can create. |
|
Quoted: Quoted: When will it end? When people realize that Facebook produces nothing tangible, that the vast majority of people browsing the internet never click on internet ads and are usually just annoyed by them, that eCommerce isn't like impulse buying from the candy rack while you stand in the grocery store check-out line, that people aren't willing to pay a user fee for a social networking site, that Facebook will be replaced by the next best thing in social media once it comes along, then it will end with Facebook's value at $0. Just the opinion of an average Joe (who doesn't use Facebook or any social media BTW). Perhaps you should use it. Facebook's value is in data-mining. Those ads you talk about...I click them. I get ads for sales on Silencer Co. Silencers, Ranier Arms sales, ect. Facebook sees that I like stickman, noveskee, tnvc, etc and tailor the ads to me. I don't have to go looking for sales, I just log into facebook and they tell me what the current deals are that I would be interested in. You're wasting your time. This is GD. If the company doesn't make an item that a poster is holding in his hand right now AND likes, then it's a dumb company with a stupid business model run by idiots that will go bankrupt within the week. So for anyone who thinks Facebook doesn't produce anything let me ask you: When you go see a movie, did you get anything tangible? No. When a shipping company moves a container across the ocean, did they produce anything tangible? Nope. Does your ISP produce anything tangible? Nuh-uh. Funny though that these are all businesses that people use, and that make money. It's almost as if something of value doesn't need to be tangible. Like, it could be a good, or maybe it could even be a.... *GASP*... service!!! |
|
Quoted: When will it end? When people realize that Facebook produces nothing tangible, that the vast majority of people browsing the internet never click on internet ads and are usually just annoyed by them, that eCommerce isn't like impulse buying from the candy rack while you stand in the grocery store check-out line, that people aren't willing to pay a user fee for a social networking site, that Facebook will be replaced by the next best thing in social media once it comes along, then it will end with Facebook's value at $0. Just the opinion of an average Joe (who doesn't use Facebook or any social media BTW). or they use ad blockers. when i get on somebody elses comp w/o them im like wtf is all these ads and shit. |
|
Hold on to your hats. It's gonna be a bumpy ride..........
Millions Billions more Facebook shares coming soon Facebook (FB) already unleashed millions of shares to wary investors. Now the technology giant's early investors are about to see if they can force-feed millions more. Starting in just a few months, select insiders and early investors in Facebook will be free to sell their shares as the so-called lock-up period expires. Some fear the flood of stock available for trading could further inundate investors and water down Facebook's share price, already 26% below the $38 initial public offering price. Facebook fell 65 cents Wednesday to $28.19. "This is a big issue hanging over the price of the stock," says Stephen Diamond, professor of law at Santa Clara University. Facebook's "stock price still has a way to go on the downside as the market takes account of increased supply." When an IPO lock-up period expires, more shares are available for trading, placing a greater supply of stock in the stock market. Investors are nervously watching the expiration of Facebook's lock-up period because: •Lock-up expirations are significant events. IPOs suffer 2% declines, on average, in the wake of a lock-up expiration, says Jay Ritter, professor of finance at the University of Florida. In addition to the greater supply of stock, investors don't like seeing executives and early investors selling, he says. •The coming supply of shares potentially sold is large. Facebook's IPO unlocks an escalating number of shares for trading over time. The first lock-up expiration hits in less than three months, when 268 million shares are available for sale, or a tenth of shares outstanding. In less than six months, though, 1.7 billion shares will be unlocked. •Odds are that more shares could be issued to pay for acquisitions. Just prior to the IPO, Facebook announced it would be buying social photo-sharing service Instagram for $1 billion. To help pay for the acquisition, Facebook plans to issue nearly 23 million additional shares, according to the company's filing. And investors are already braced for Facebook to freely issue even more shares to fund additional acquisitions, further diluting their stakes, says Josef Schuster of IPO tracker IPOX Schuster. -more- |
|
Quoted:
Quoted:
When will it end? When people realize that Facebook produces nothing tangible, that the vast majority of people browsing the internet never click on internet ads and are usually just annoyed by them, that eCommerce isn't like impulse buying from the candy rack while you stand in the grocery store check-out line, that people aren't willing to pay a user fee for a social networking site, that Facebook will be replaced by the next best thing in social media once it comes along, then it will end with Facebook's value at $0. Just the opinion of an average Joe (who doesn't use Facebook or any social media BTW).
I suppose there's no use in any sort of advertising, nobody buys anything based off of TV commercials! Facebook is overvalued. It doesn't have zero value. How many items have you purchased in the past year as a direct result of the ad you saw on TV? Can't say I have ever purchased something as a result of an ad I saw on TV. I purchase something because I have an need for it, then I research it, which includes the various retailers that I can buy it from. Now, I will give you this, my 6 and 7 yr old watch cartoon shows and every commercial break they come running to me saying "OMG buy me this toy I just saw on TV!!!!" so perhaps advertising mostly works on people with the intelligence level of a 6 or 7 year old. |
|
Quoted:
How many items have you purchased in the past year as a direct result of the ad you saw on TV? You realize that the vast majority of advertisements aren't designed for direct selling, right? Brand awareness, image, repetition, PR, etc are all major parts of advertising and generally receive more focus from advertisers than "BUY THIS NOW!" advertising. The fact that you think a company is going to fail because you've never clicked a link on their website is just retarded. |
|
Quoted:
Quoted:
How many items have you purchased in the past year as a direct result of the ad you saw on TV? You realize that the vast majority of advertisements aren't designed for direct selling, right? Brand awareness, image, repetition, PR, etc are all major parts of advertising and generally receive more focus from advertisers than "BUY THIS NOW!" advertising. The fact that you think a company is going to fail because you've never clicked a link on their website is just retarded. So how are they going to generate revenue necessary to grow and generate a return for investors? Oh, and didn't a major company (GM maybe?) just pull their Facebook advertising dollars since they pretty much concluded what I stated before, that ads on Facebook don't do squat for them? |
|
I am thinking it will go stable around $10-12 /share. I never figured how a company that makes no products and has a free service is worth $100 Billion. Even with the money they could make selling info to marketers and the like, there is NO WAY it is worth that much.
If Zuckerberg is smart he will do one of two things: -Sell out all holding in Facebook ASAP and laugh all the way to the bank. Even after taxes, his grandchildren won't have to work if the money is invested right. -Have Facebook become the parent company of a business empire. Time to start getting investors to buy up other forms of business. |
|
Is this correct?
And investors are already braced for Facebook to freely issue even more shares to fund additional acquisitions, further diluting their stakes, says Josef Schuster of IPO tracker IPOX Schuster.
Nothing is being "diluted" –– each share is still a fraction of a fraction of a percent of ownership. |
|
Quoted:
So how are they going to generate revenue necessary to grow and generate a return for investors? Oh, and didn't a major company (GM maybe?) just pull their Facebook advertising dollars since they pretty much concluded what I stated before, that ads on Facebook don't do squat for them? They need more revenue streams, sure. Noone's going to argue that. But they lead the industry in market share and profit margins when it comes to online display advertising. They're not going anywhere any time soon. GM pulling their ads is worthless, and wouldn't have even been a news blurb if it didn't happen 2 days before the Facebook IPO. GM is not the shining beacon of American capitalism and the fact that they failed to utilize the platform says little about the long term revenue model of Facebook, and a lot about GM's marketing department. |
|
Quoted:
Quoted:
So how are they going to generate revenue necessary to grow and generate a return for investors? Oh, and didn't a major company (GM maybe?) just pull their Facebook advertising dollars since they pretty much concluded what I stated before, that ads on Facebook don't do squat for them? They need more revenue streams, sure. That's a pretty lame excuse. Every darn company in existence "needs" more revenue streams. Your simply arguing that, currently, Facebook really has no bread-n-butter revenue stream even remotely close to warrant its valuation and therefore needs to find one quick before people realize they just invested billions in another dot.com bust. A business becomes a success because they offer (for sale) services and/or products people want and/or need and are willing to pay money for. While Facebook does offer a service/product people want, the problem is they aren't selling it but instead they are giving it away for free while they try and find a method to earn money from it. At least with pet rocks people were willing to pony up money to buy the stupid things while the fad lasted. Facebook should charge a monthly user fee (or perhaps offer a very limited free interface and tiered interfaces that grant access to more features the more you pay). They won't though, because they know the vast majority of subscribers won't pay a dime for it and some other Facebook clone will just come along and offer their site for free. Hence the reason Facebook (and its stock) is doomed IMO. |
|
Quoted:
That's a pretty lame excuse. Every darn company in existence "needs" more revenue streams. Your simply arguing that, currently, Facebook really has no bread-n-butter revenue stream even remotely close to warrant its valuation and therefore needs to find one quick before people realize they just invested billions in another dot.com bust. A business becomes a success because they offer (for sale) services and/or products people want and/or need and are willing to pay money for. While Facebook does offer a service/product people want, the problem is they aren't selling it but instead they are giving it away for free while they try and find a method to earn money from it. At least with pet rocks people were willing to pony up money to buy the stupid things while the fad lasted. Facebook should charge a monthly user fee (or perhaps offer a very limited free interface and tiered interfaces that grant access to more features the more you pay). They won't though, because they know the vast majority of subscribers won't pay a dime for it and some other Facebook clone will just come along and offer their site for free. Hence the reason Facebook (and its stock) is doomed IMO. Facebook needs another revenue stream to diversify their company and guarantee long term earnings growth for investors. Just like companies need to integrate new products and services to continue growing. That doesn't mean that their current revenue stream is worthless or not their "bread-n-butter". Look at the actual data before spewing BS. Facebook's advertising revenue gives them a net margin of nearly 25%. That's astronomical for any company within the industry. That's why GM doesn't matter, and why your claim that advertising isn't going to pan out for them is completely misguided. Facebook's share of the online display ad-market is massive and still has significant room for growth, given that they currently only target a small portion of overall users. To think that Facebook is going to flop because they don't charge people to use the site is just ignorant. They have a solid revenue stream that will keep them around for years to come. And the fact that the only conceivable revenue stream you can come up with is charging users a subscription is just silly, and shows how little you know about the company. I've yet to see any source that charging users for subscription services has ever even been considered by Facebook executives. They are focused on growing their advertising revenues outside of the standard display ads, as well as monetizing the platform and mobile apps from companies like Zynga. It should be extremely easy for Facebook to double or triple their revenues over the next several years without charging users a dime. |
|
Quoted: I never figured how a company that makes no products and has a free service is worth $100 Billion. If you really thought this was true, then how would you explain their ability to operate and grow for 8 years before their IPO? I mean, as you put it, they make nothing and have a free service. Did Santa Claus just give them money every quarter so they could keep operating? Do you think they ran the whole company, from February 2004 to May 2012, on the $240million they got from Microsoft in October 2007? Maybe they sent some of that money back in time. Surely no bank would loan them money for the first 3.5 years since they have no products and only offer a free service. Facebook threads bring out a whole new level of idiocy, even for GD. |
|
Quoted:
Quoted:
I never figured how a company that makes no products and has a free service is worth $100 Billion. If you really thought this was true, then how would you explain their ability to operate and grow for 8 years before their IPO? I mean, as you put it, they make nothing and have a free service. Did Santa Claus just give them money every quarter so they could keep operating? Do you think they ran the whole company, from February 2004 to May 2012, on the $240million they got from Microsoft in October 2007? Maybe they sent some of that money back in time. Surely no bank would loan them money for the first 3.5 years since they have no products and only offer a free service. Facebook threads bring out a whole new level of idiocy, even for GD. I dunno, maybe the same (or similar) way as all those companies that got big and then went bust during the dot.com era? Where are those companies now and the money people invested in them? For many of those companies they never produced a single thing, but lots of their founders walked away millionaires while their investors lost their pants. But hey!! Facebook must be different, right? Only time will tell. |
|
Quoted:
Quoted:
When will it end? When people realize that Facebook produces nothing tangible, that the vast majority of people browsing the internet never click on internet ads and are usually just annoyed by them, that eCommerce isn't like impulse buying from the candy rack while you stand in the grocery store check-out line, that people aren't willing to pay a user fee for a social networking site, that Facebook will be replaced by the next best thing in social media once it comes along, then it will end with Facebook's value at $0. Just the opinion of an average Joe (who doesn't use Facebook or any social media BTW). Perhaps you should use it. Facebook's value is in data-mining. Those ads you talk about...I click them. I get ads for sales on Silencer Co. Silencers, Ranier Arms sales, ect. Facebook sees that I like stickman, noveskee, tnvc, etc and tailor the ads to me. I don't have to go looking for sales, I just log into facebook and they tell me what the current deals are that I would be interested in. Yep, that's the "value" of facebook. The ads are targeted based on things like your friends, things you "like", stuff you look at on the website, etc. Yeah, most people don't click random bullshit ads. But many more people click highly targeted ads because they are based on your interests. That's how facebook makes money, people want to advertise there because there is a higher payoff compared to just randomly advertising on the internet. |
|
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
How many items have you purchased in the past year as a direct result of the ad you saw on TV? You realize that the vast majority of advertisements aren't designed for direct selling, right? Brand awareness, image, repetition, PR, etc are all major parts of advertising and generally receive more focus from advertisers than "BUY THIS NOW!" advertising. The fact that you think a company is going to fail because you've never clicked a link on their website is just retarded. So how are they going to generate revenue necessary to grow and generate a return for investors? Oh, and didn't a major company (GM maybe?) just pull their Facebook advertising dollars since they pretty much concluded what I stated before, that ads on Facebook don't do squat for them? At the same time GM was pulling out, Ford was increasing its advertising with Facebook. What it boils down to is GM was trying to sell cars that people don't want to people on Facebook. Ford on the other hand is using Facebook to advertise cars that Facebooky people want, like the Fiesta. |
|
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
How many items have you purchased in the past year as a direct result of the ad you saw on TV? You realize that the vast majority of advertisements aren't designed for direct selling, right? Brand awareness, image, repetition, PR, etc are all major parts of advertising and generally receive more focus from advertisers than "BUY THIS NOW!" advertising. The fact that you think a company is going to fail because you've never clicked a link on their website is just retarded. So how are they going to generate revenue necessary to grow and generate a return for investors? Oh, and didn't a major company (GM maybe?) just pull their Facebook advertising dollars since they pretty much concluded what I stated before, that ads on Facebook don't do squat for them? Everyone already knows who GM is. It's a far different story for a small business that most people have never heard of. Facebook is a good way for them to get their name out there and catch the attention of those interested in their field because of the targeted advertising on facebook. |
|
Quoted: GD told me I was retarded when I said anyone who bought it in the beginning would lose money. People seem to have this weird fetish. "GD told me" I remember that thread and pretty much every single person said it wasn't worth the asking price. The consensus was it would drop.
|