SpaceX IPO (Page 4 of 7)
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Just got the Fidelity email. I'm looking for the E-trade email or access. That's the route I am going . This type of information, folks requesting shares will give us huge amounts of data for the over-subscription model. Currently modeled at 20x but probably roll up to 30-40x creating a cross price of $185-$235 opening price, if not more. Edit for clarity Etrade will be our number 1 play And pressing an allocation through Fidelity and Robinhood too. Unprecented demand. Beating the bushes. wild Stupid and untrue title, Building structural support for the long game. Great graph, page two. Unclear if the Chase private shares or in the retail portion, 166 million shares (pre greenshoe) versus the institutional shares 323 million. The institutional will be gobbled up and on lockdown quick by institutions with index or tracking mutual funds, with Nasdaq inclusion only 15 days away. Over subscription prediction 30x-40x. |
https://spacexipo.com/ |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: So how much is everybody looking to buy? I still don't know, but I think I'll swing for at least a few hundreds shares and sell calls on them ASAP. Should be fun! |
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" (Bloomberg) -- S&P Dow Jones Indices will keep its existing eligibility requirements for benchmarks including the S&P 500, closing the door to fast entry for big tech IPOs like SpaceX and delaying billions of dollars in flows from passive funds." https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-other-mega-ipos-denied-223529619.html |
Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it..
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Originally Posted By grendelbane: Might be some time before options are listed, however. If it moves up during that time your plan should work well. My gut tells me the demand and stock price will be crazy, but for how long? Days/weeks for sure, but months or years? As we talk about here all the time, conventional methods of determining a stock's value no longer seem to hold. Safe bet that spacex will fall into this category so who knows where (or if) it settles in the short term. Google tells me there are space x launches (carrying starlink) on June 8, 12, and 13 with a couple non-starlink launches later in June. Imagine the chaos if the launch on the 12th (at sunrise) fails. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: Talk is I'm of the mind that I would hate to be missing out on a chance to be posting in 30 years from my space mcmansion because I got in early. The risk to reward on this is worth a shot. I've missed every major IPO, and successful big hit stock. Except Palantir. I'd rather lose all I invested than kick myself in the ass for missing out for the rest of forever. |
Callsign-ChuckYeager
That man is a homo and a liar-TrojanMan
Hell, a Ford just breaks down on you. It doesn't fall apart AND try to kill you at the same time-Bloodsport2885
That man is a homo and a liar-TrojanMan
Hell, a Ford just breaks down on you. It doesn't fall apart AND try to kill you at the same time-Bloodsport2885
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: I want to profit. I assume that the premiums on options will be sky high. That’s just kinda the way I play short calls in general, though. |
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Originally Posted By 1168RGR: Fair enough. I hope you win, but I think the high premiums will have corresponding high assignment risk. I've been around long enough that I've learned to never regret taking a profit. To be clear, I'm considering buying more shares than I am comfortable holding for the long term. If I request and receive that quantity the intent from day one would be to unload some fraction of them in the short term. |
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| Just talked to my financial advisor and requested 3k shares. Not expecting a major pop and this is a longer-term play with the expectation of Elon changing the world in many ways and shareholders benefiting from that. |
“The trouble with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money.” - Margaret Thatcher
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: Regarding the lottery - seems obvious demand will outstrip supply so all brokerages will have to ration IPO shares somehow. In my mind worrying about the "how" is pointless - you will get what you get and you have no recourse. You'll know before the open on Friday, so it's not like they'll leave you hanging on opening day without knowing how many IPO shares you got. From Fidelity's Space X IPO explained page: ETA: on to more important things... do this in a taxable account or a roth? I have taxable cash available and wouldn't need to sell anything. My roth is quite a bit smaller than my taxable account. Unsure of how much to buy, but looking at an amount that would constitute on the order of 25-50% of my roth. That's a lot of tax free eggs in one basket.... Like procat said, I'd sell a significant fraction quickly and hold some longer term provided I get more than 87 shares. Is there a way to do it in both? |
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Originally Posted By Pachucko: Is there a way to do it in both? Yes, you can do that. In my case, there’s not enough cash in my IRA to make it worthwhile. Another consideration is that having the same stock in both a taxable and an IRA means you have to be careful about wash sale rules. Not impossible to manage, but something to keep in mind. |
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Capital raise, not a liquidity event. Great read. Solid read. If you can't access it, paste it into chatgpt and ask for 55 bullet point summary points. |
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Just finished our IOI's for hopefully allocations. We'll see as we took the hedging route across platforms. Fidelity, my brokerage account, 372 shares Fidelity, wifes brokerage account, 372 shares Etrade, 1,858 shares Robinhood,372 shares Whatever does not get allocated, we'll game time decision of how many shares to be purchased either at "market" on a cold open. If it's too violent, we'll sit tight. Then potentially sweep any undeployed funds back into the money market account. These are long term plays as we will not be selling until at least 3 of these things happen: 1) 1 year holding, LTCG vs STCG 2) S&P500 inclusion 3) TSLA merger/acquisition 4) Stock split These funds are 80% of my Retirement Bucket #1, cash for 2028 through 20231. Bucket #2 and #3 are the traditional long term locked up buckets. My plan was to exit the work force in Q1 of 2027, using these funds as our household spending. If the IPO goes sideways and come January of 2027, we have lost half or more of the investment, I will quietly continue working for 3-4 more years. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Fidelity, my brokerage account, 372 shares Fidelity, wifes brokerage account, 372 shares Etrade, 1,858 shares Robinhood,372 shares If the IPO goes sideways and come January of 2027, we have lost half or more of the investment, I will quietly continue working for 3-4 more years. Stupid question time: why risk working potentially a years longer if your financial goals will be met in just a few months? ETA: I tried to do IOI in the wife’s Roth, but no IPO available for her. She only has a Roth with about $70k in it, but Fidelity says $2k is the threshold? |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: FYSA, below from fidelity. I think this means you must do IOI by today(Wednesday), not tomorrrow (Thursday). https://i.ibb.co/sv96TrNy/IMG-0084.jpg I got this message from Robinhood "The underwriter for SPCX has changed the deadline to request to buy shares to June 10, 2026 at 4 PM ET. You can also still review or edit your order after this deadline." |
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Originally Posted By @Morgan321: Stupid question time: why risk working potentially a years longer if your financial goals will be met in just a few months? Go big or go home right??!! Couple more days and we’ll see how the IOI’s turn out. |
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Looking at some of the SPCX proxies a couple are doing well, (SATS and DXYZ). A couple aren’t doing great but are at least up for the day. (XOVR and I forget the other one). Makes me think SPCX will do well tomorrow. I just have to get some shares allocated tonight. |
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Violent. My prediction is Scenario C. Attached File Attached File Attached File More then likely, we'll do staggered limit orders through 3 brokerages ranging in $177 up to $215. |
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Originally Posted By grendelbane: Looking at some of the SPCX proxies a couple are doing well, (SATS and DXYZ). A couple aren’t doing great but are at least up for the day. (XOVR and I forget the other one). Makes me think SPCX will do well tomorrow. I just have to get some shares allocated tonight. DXYZ is down bigly. They hit a high of around $70 then decided it would be a great time to announce a 1 billion dollar stock sale which tanked the price down into the $30's. In their announcement they also said their share price was overvalued basically for no good reason at all. DXYZ was my SpaceX pre-IPO play and I got out around $60/share with a buy in price of $27. So I did ok but it should have hit $100 if they hadn't made such a boneheaded move. |
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I was unclear whether you had to have the cash in your account tomorrow to buy any shares you get. So I sold enough in my Roth to have the cash for the shares I asked for and already had the cash to cover what I asked for in my taxable account. ETA: just got the confirmation email from Fidelity. Gonna ponder on how many to buy for an hour before I click OK. How many is anybody else buying? I asked for 1000 total, leaning towards confirming for 500 or 600. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: I was unclear whether you had to have the cash in your account tomorrow to buy any shares you get. So I sold enough in my Roth to have the cash for the shares I asked for and already had the cash to cover what I asked for in my taxable account. ETA: just got the confirmation email from Fidelity. Gonna ponder on how many to buy for an hour before I click OK. How many is anybody else buying? I asked for 1000 total, leaning towards confirming for 500 or 600. My entire amount which is far less than that. 
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Callsign-ChuckYeager
That man is a homo and a liar-TrojanMan
Hell, a Ford just breaks down on you. It doesn't fall apart AND try to kill you at the same time-Bloodsport2885
That man is a homo and a liar-TrojanMan
Hell, a Ford just breaks down on you. It doesn't fall apart AND try to kill you at the same time-Bloodsport2885
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Originally Posted By 7: When does one know the price? Not sure what you are asking. The price is $135 during the allocation closing the book period, now. It will open trading after 9:30 am and predicating somewhere between live after 11:30 am -1:45 pm. See my posts above on predictions on the opening market public price. |
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Originally Posted By @grendelbane: Congratulations! I am still waiting on E*Trade. And waiting, and waiting. On E-trade, i have not gotten any confirmations and there is no indications I received any. BUT when I look at my cash balance available, I see a large chunk missing which would fit with 25% allocation!!! Same method with Fidelity, look at cash balance. Edit: For both Fidelity and Etrade, go to your account portfolio or assets or something. it will show the shares there. Edit 2: Attached File Edit 3: working on my orders to fill out the rest of the 2,400 shares after open. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: On E-trade, i have not gotten any confirmations and there is no indications I received any. BUT when I look at my cash balance available, I see a large chunk missing which would fit with 25% allocation!!! Same method with Fidelity, look at cash balance. Edit: For both Fidelity and Etrade, go to your account portfolio or assets or something. it will show the shares there. I just saw it now. No alert, no e-mail. I got 28.6% of my request, which I consider to be good. I am a happy camper. ETA; Just got the alert. All is well, and I am ready for the opening bell. |
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