Posted: 2/7/2015 10:27:24 PM EDT
|
I found this site that lets you graph commodity prices with up to a 30 year history. It's amazing the effect bad monetary policy has had on commodity prices. Check Iron Ore prices for an example http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=360 |
|
Iron was bouncing between $10 to $15 per ton for 20 years and then within 5 years it's $187 per ton. Most of the other commodities I looked at show a similar chart. I will always own some physical gold and silver for this reason. I have no doubt they will do it again. |
|
Quoted: If you look at the trend in a lot of commodities, it sloping aggressively downward. Ominous sign. I think they need to go down in price a lot. Put a trend line on the years prior to 2005 and that's about where prices should be. The fed hasn't even started to raise rates yet. When they do, look out below. |
|
Quoted:
I think they need to go down in price a lot. Put a trend line on the years prior to 2005 and that's about where prices should be. The fed hasn't even started to raise rates yet. When they do, look out below. Quoted:
Quoted:
If you look at the trend in a lot of commodities, it sloping aggressively downward. Ominous sign. I think they need to go down in price a lot. Put a trend line on the years prior to 2005 and that's about where prices should be. The fed hasn't even started to raise rates yet. When they do, look out below. They can't. 
|
|
Quoted:
They can't.
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
If you look at the trend in a lot of commodities, it sloping aggressively downward. Ominous sign. I think they need to go down in price a lot. Put a trend line on the years prior to 2005 and that's about where prices should be. The fed hasn't even started to raise rates yet. When they do, look out below. They can't.
Curious why you say that. It's been done in the past; why is it now impossible? |
|
Quoted:
Curious why you say that. It's been done in the past; why is it now impossible? Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
If you look at the trend in a lot of commodities, it sloping aggressively downward. Ominous sign. I think they need to go down in price a lot. Put a trend line on the years prior to 2005 and that's about where prices should be. The fed hasn't even started to raise rates yet. When they do, look out below. They can't.
Curious why you say that. It's been done in the past; why is it now impossible? How big is the federal debt and what is the finance cost at today's historically low rates? What happens to the debt payments if interest rates return to "normal" levels? Then there is the private sector debt to consider. |
|
Quoted:
I found this site that lets you graph commodity prices with up to a 30 year history. It's amazing the effect bad monetary policy has had on commodity prices. Check Iron Ore prices for an example http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=360 in what ways does this affect you? ar-jedi |
|
Quoted:
Curious why you say that. It's been done in the past; why is it now impossible? Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
If you look at the trend in a lot of commodities, it sloping aggressively downward. Ominous sign. I think they need to go down in price a lot. Put a trend line on the years prior to 2005 and that's about where prices should be. The fed hasn't even started to raise rates yet. When they do, look out below. They can't.
Curious why you say that. It's been done in the past; why is it now impossible? It would collapse the economy [beyond the 'Hidden Collapse' we're in that's already well under way -that most folks are totally blind to] Want to see us thrown into a VISIBLE Mother of ALL Great Depressions, raise interest rates. The .gov couldn't begin to pay interest on IT'S debt let alone folks needing to borrow $$$. I'd love it tho, would finally be getting some returns on my cash stockpile. 
Plus would make for some VERY interesting times. And the bargains to be had as enterprises of the private sector go out of business ----and folks go bankrupt --OMG! Pisssst... 
Most folks don't realize it, --that we're well into a collapse at this moment, it's just being hidden by keeping the Sheeple poorly educated, brainwashed, boozed and drugged up, and distracted --along with lots of QE lube so some are able to stay employed or supplied with .gov handouts.
|
|
Quoted:
How big is the federal debt and what is the finance cost at today's historically low rates? What happens to the debt payments if interest rates return to "normal" levels? Federal tax receipts in 2014 were about $3 trillion, and we spent about $3.5 trillion. Federal debt is around $18 trillion. At 5% that'd be $900 billion per year in interest. Nearly 1/3 of last year's tax receipts. What happens? The answer is we'd borrow or QE-conjure money to pay the interest on the debt. The consequences of that are hard to predict and time, but they aren't good. There's some inertia to the system. If rates rose to 5% tomorrow, the existing debt wouldn't be instantly refinanced to that rate. It would take some time for the effective rate on the national debt to climb. Imminent catastrophe has been predicted in louder and louder voices since about 2008, but as I've said since then, the bean counters and bean hiders and bean conjurers are very, very good at kicking the can down the road. I still think they'll keep kicking for quite some time. 5 years? 10 years? 20? 30? Could be a decade or two or three. Once you accept that our collective financial comeuppance could well be a couple decades down the road, you have to wonder what else might change in the world in that time. I bet Europe implodes under its bad debt before we do. I bet China will be clearly revealed to be the unclothed emperor it is in that time. I bet there will be a revolution or two or three in South America, Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia in that time. Maybe Elon Musk will tow a 400 million ton asteroid of solid gold into orbit and shower nuggets down on the world for the lulz, just to piss off the goldbugs. And I bet no one alive today can predict exactly what our debt and interest rates will mean in the context of all those things happening. Will the dollar still be the least ugly girl in the room in 20 years? It might be. |
|
Quoted: in what ways does this affect you? ar-jedi Quoted: Quoted: I found this site that lets you graph commodity prices with up to a 30 year history. It's amazing the effect bad monetary policy has had on commodity prices. Check Iron Ore prices for an example http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=360 in what ways does this affect you? ar-jedi As a consumer, higher prices affect me. If my wages increased at the same rate I wouldn't mind. |
|
Quoted:
I went to the Fed Reserve website and looked up what their purpose is. "Conducting the nation's monetary policy by influencing money and credit conditions in the economy in pursuit of full employment and stable prices." Stable prices? That's a good one Ask any Sheeple, they'll confirm that whatever it says, it has to be correct... 
|
|
Quoted:
Federal tax receipts in 2014 were about $3 trillion, and we spent about $3.5 trillion. Federal debt is around $18 trillion. At 5% that'd be $900 billion per year in interest. Nearly 1/3 of last year's tax receipts. What happens? The answer is we'd borrow or QE-conjure money to pay the interest on the debt. The consequences of that are hard to predict and time, but they aren't good. There's some inertia to the system. If rates rose to 5% tomorrow, the existing debt wouldn't be instantly refinanced to that rate. It would take some time for the effective rate on the national debt to climb. Imminent catastrophe has been predicted in louder and louder voices since about 2008, but as I've said since then, the bean counters and bean hiders and bean conjurers are very, very good at kicking the can down the road. I still think they'll keep kicking for quite some time. 5 years? 10 years? 20? 30? Could be a decade or two or three. Don't forget the total destruction to the value of existing US bonds if/when rates rise, that will wipe out a LOT of the bond holders/speculators quickly. Once you accept that our collective financial comeuppance could well be a couple decades down the road, you have to wonder what else might change in the world in that time. I bet Europe implodes under its bad debt before we do. I bet China will be clearly revealed to be the unclothed emperor it is in that time. I bet there will be a revolution or two or three in South America, Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia in that time. Maybe Elon Musk will tow a 400 million ton asteroid of solid gold into orbit and shower nuggets down on the world for the lulz, just to piss off the goldbugs. The fact that EU & China (and don't forget Japan) are likely in worse shape than the US and could implode before we do will prove to be a short lived 'benefit'. The US dollar may be the immediate beneficiary but the resulting financial chaos will spread to us, welcome to a global great depression. And I bet no one alive today can predict exactly what our debt and interest rates will mean in the context of all those things happening. Agreed, way to many 'moving parts' to predict the when and how but historically this is what causes big wars. Will the dollar still be the least ugly girl in the room in 20 years? It might be. Quoted:
Quoted:
How big is the federal debt and what is the finance cost at today's historically low rates? What happens to the debt payments if interest rates return to "normal" levels? Federal tax receipts in 2014 were about $3 trillion, and we spent about $3.5 trillion. Federal debt is around $18 trillion. At 5% that'd be $900 billion per year in interest. Nearly 1/3 of last year's tax receipts. What happens? The answer is we'd borrow or QE-conjure money to pay the interest on the debt. The consequences of that are hard to predict and time, but they aren't good. There's some inertia to the system. If rates rose to 5% tomorrow, the existing debt wouldn't be instantly refinanced to that rate. It would take some time for the effective rate on the national debt to climb. Imminent catastrophe has been predicted in louder and louder voices since about 2008, but as I've said since then, the bean counters and bean hiders and bean conjurers are very, very good at kicking the can down the road. I still think they'll keep kicking for quite some time. 5 years? 10 years? 20? 30? Could be a decade or two or three. Don't forget the total destruction to the value of existing US bonds if/when rates rise, that will wipe out a LOT of the bond holders/speculators quickly. Once you accept that our collective financial comeuppance could well be a couple decades down the road, you have to wonder what else might change in the world in that time. I bet Europe implodes under its bad debt before we do. I bet China will be clearly revealed to be the unclothed emperor it is in that time. I bet there will be a revolution or two or three in South America, Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia in that time. Maybe Elon Musk will tow a 400 million ton asteroid of solid gold into orbit and shower nuggets down on the world for the lulz, just to piss off the goldbugs. The fact that EU & China (and don't forget Japan) are likely in worse shape than the US and could implode before we do will prove to be a short lived 'benefit'. The US dollar may be the immediate beneficiary but the resulting financial chaos will spread to us, welcome to a global great depression. And I bet no one alive today can predict exactly what our debt and interest rates will mean in the context of all those things happening. Agreed, way to many 'moving parts' to predict the when and how but historically this is what causes big wars. Will the dollar still be the least ugly girl in the room in 20 years? It might be. |
|
Quoted: Watch Greece for some clues as to what happens to a country that overspends. I doubt it's an exact correlation to the US but they next few months should be very interesting to watch. I don't think we will have the same problems as them since our debt is all in dollars and we can print dollars. They're screwed since they over borrowed and have no ability to print Euros. I'd pay attention to Japan. Like us they have a huge debt in their own currency. For 2013 it was listed as 226% of GDP while the US had about 72% at that time. Whatever happens to them is probably going to happen to us. I don't see how they can keep borrowing much more at those percentages. |
|
Quoted:
I don't think we will have the same problems as them since our debt is all in dollars and we can print dollars. They're screwed since they over borrowed and have no ability to print Euros. I'd pay attention to Japan. Like us they have a huge debt in their own currency. For 2013 it was listed as 226% of GDP while the US had about 72% at that time. Whatever happens to them is probably going to happen to us. I don't see how they can keep borrowing much more at those percentages. Quoted:
Quoted:
Watch Greece for some clues as to what happens to a country that overspends. I doubt it's an exact correlation to the US but they next few months should be very interesting to watch. I don't think we will have the same problems as them since our debt is all in dollars and we can print dollars. They're screwed since they over borrowed and have no ability to print Euros. I'd pay attention to Japan. Like us they have a huge debt in their own currency. For 2013 it was listed as 226% of GDP while the US had about 72% at that time. Whatever happens to them is probably going to happen to us. I don't see how they can keep borrowing much more at those percentages. Not disagreeing. I guess I mean more from the standpoint of what will a country do when they have to tighten their belts....and then rebel against it....as Greek citizens are doing now. And, will the rest of the EU be willing to let them starve as a result of their spend happy ways? Why would I loan more money to you if you are just going to blow it and then ask for demand more? I think there are some correlations to their citizenry as well as ours. It's interesting to watch. |
|
Quoted:
As a consumer, higher prices affect me. If my wages increased at the same rate I wouldn't mind. Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I found this site that lets you graph commodity prices with up to a 30 year history. It's amazing the effect bad monetary policy has had on commodity prices. Check Iron Ore prices for an example http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=360 in what ways does this affect you? ar-jedi As a consumer, higher prices affect me. If my wages increased at the same rate I wouldn't mind. are you buying bulk iron ore? probably not. you are buying things made out of processed iron ore, specifically steel. while the cost of procuring the ore in the first place have gone way up (EPA, fuel, land, etc), processing iron ore into steel is more efficient than ever. the heaviest thing you own made primarily from steel is likely your car or truck. let's see how cars have fared over the long haul in terms of cost versus income... please carefully note the Y-axis in the graph below; it is "upside down" due to the way the data is presented (i.e., the "affordability index" is going up). 
moreover, http://listosaur.com/miscellaneous/10-consumer-products-dropped-price/ December 29, 2014 10 Consumer Products That Have Dropped in Price Anyone who’s been to a hospital emergency room lately or has had to foot the bill for a college education knows all about price inflation. These costs haven’t just risen in recent years, they’ve soared. When it’s modest, inflation can be seen as an indication of a healthy, growing economy. But in this era of stagnant wages in the U.S., declining prices are surely preferable. And they’re out there. Here are 10 popular items that have actually become less expensive in recent years; some of these items are a fraction of the cost they were a generation ago. 10. 9. 8. ... 1. New Vehicles 
it takes a family earning an average income about 10 weeks less income to purchase a new vehicle than it did 20 years ago. Since their inception, automobiles have always represented a big-ticket purchase and likely always will. The average cost of a new vehicle in 2014, $31,252, was higher than ever before, according to TrueCar.com. However, the true cost of buying that vehicle has dropped precipitously over time, and especially since about 2000. This is partly because the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index has been largely stagnant since about 1994. In fact, during the ’00s vehicle prices dropped for the first time in history. For a family earning the median U.S. annual income, it takes 21 weeks of income to pay for a new car purchase today, while it took 31 weeks 20 years ago, according to Comerica’s Auto Affordability Index. When considering how vastly improved vehicles are today compared to even a decade ago, and how much longer they last, the real cost of a new car today is a fraction of what it used to be. ar-jedi |
|
Quoted:
Don't forget the total destruction to the value of existing US bonds if/when rates rise, that will wipe out a LOT of the bond holders/speculators quickly. Well. Careful predicting what will happen with such certainty. How have Greek bonds done lately? Haven't we been waiting for US bond prices to crash since QE began, and it became clear that the fed was making money out of thin air? And what will happen to equities? Will they crash with a sagging economy? Or will rampant inflation drive up the prices there too? Most bond holders are diversified and hold equities and other asset classes. Who knows what will happen to the dollar value and actual purchasing power of a piece of their portfolio or the portfolio as a whole ... I don't. |