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AR15.COM
2/23/2012 11:29:31 AM EDT
So with the major popularity of survival it seems to me EVERYONE has the SAME plan to G.O.O.D which is head for the hills or going out to a "Farm" or the country  something along those lines which is ok but it seems like the masses all have the same idea now which creates a problem for us Folk. if Millions of people all have the same mentality don't you think that will backfire? the sheep that don't know how to survive will go about killing each-other & game & animals with no real know how while wasting good meat and food. So my point is...When everyone escapes the city's do you think the rural areas will become the shit stain when shtf?
2/23/2012 11:38:00 AM EDT
[#1]
I think that all depends on your AO.  I think if your plan is to go Wolverine in the forest, yeah, thats a pretty bad idea.

Our choice was to buy a five acre parcel in a development of 5 acre parcels about 5 miles outside of town.  We are way off any main roads, down an unmarked non county road and not on the way to anywhere.  If there is an exodus, hopefully it will follow the major roads or common routes out to the forest...  
If you are concerned with it, get your property somewhere you think will be less likely to be on someones way to somewhere.  Not much else you can do.

ETA:  thought I should clarify that we live in the house on five acres, and our plan is bug in for most situations.  We went the Homestead route to mitigate a good portion of the bug out need.
2/23/2012 11:45:51 AM EDT
[#2]
Quoted:
I think that all depends on your AO.  I think if your plan is to go Wolverine in the forest, yeah, thats a pretty bad idea.

Our choice was to buy a five acre parcel in a development of 5 acre parcels about 5 miles outside of town.  We are way off any main roads, down an unmarked non county road and not on the way to anywhere.  If there is an exodus, hopefully it will follow the major roads or common routes out to the forest...  
If you are concerned with it, get your property somewhere you think will be less likely to be on someones way to somewhere.  Not much else you can do.


agree..yeah i live in Kansas City but i am about 30 min North of the city and a few min south of the airport then it gets nothing but country. which is where our rendezvous plans are. the only problem is a college a little farther north and i imagine thousands of crazy hungry college kids lol. I am going to round up as much cattle as we can stuff in the barn set a sniper up on the roof and wait while the rest of us get the spot ready. Bug out time ETA One hour Max
2/23/2012 12:10:04 PM EDT
[#3]
Not to worry. I've read right here on Arfcom that most of them will simply sit on their couches and die. Or they will all die trying to get out....or the "winter/summer" will kill all of them......

All you have to do is get more than 100 miles away from the city and everything is peaches and cream if you are the grey man hiding in a hole. Nobody will ever find you.







I don't believe that shit at all.
2/23/2012 12:23:18 PM EDT
[#4]
Quoted:
So with the major popularity of survival it seems to me EVERYONE has the SAME plan to G.O.O.D which is head for the hills or going out to a "Farm" or the country  something along those lines which is ok but it seems like the masses all have the same idea now which creates a problem for us Folk. if Millions of people all have the same mentality don't you think that will backfire? the sheep that don't know how to survive will go about killing each-other & game & animals with no real know how while wasting good meat and food. So my point is...When everyone escapes the city's do you think the rural areas will become the shit stain when shtf?


By all means, dont expect "game & animals" to even be part of your food equation. IF you're thinking of doing that in any way to put food on the table there will already be thousands of others doing the same thing. Animals have been hunted to near extinction before during the 30's and there wasnt nearly as much people as there is today.
FerFAL
2/23/2012 12:28:09 PM EDT
[#5]
Who says they will make it out of the cities?  

If people don't have a bol they aren't leaving to go any where with "the children".

If the Nest is still habitable and there is a thread of sustanace to survive on then

Mama ain't goin no where unless it's to a food distrubution point close by.

Regional disaster ,they will set staging areas and distrubution points and

people aren't straying too far from the hand outs for sure.
2/23/2012 12:28:26 PM EDT
[#6]
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to recall that the drought in the Horn of Africa pushed the majority of the population into the cities because that's were the relief supplies were.
2/23/2012 12:37:36 PM EDT
[#7]
Quoted:
Quoted:
So with the major popularity of survival it seems to me EVERYONE has the SAME plan to G.O.O.D which is head for the hills or going out to a "Farm" or the country  something along those lines which is ok but it seems like the masses all have the same idea now which creates a problem for us Folk. if Millions of people all have the same mentality don't you think that will backfire? the sheep that don't know how to survive will go about killing each-other & game & animals with no real know how while wasting good meat and food. So my point is...When everyone escapes the city's do you think the rural areas will become the shit stain when shtf?


By all means, dont expect "game & animals" to even be part of your food equation. IF you're thinking of doing that in any way to put food on the table there will already be thousands of others doing the same thing. Animals have been hunted to near extinction before during the 30's and there wasnt nearly as much people as there is today.
FerFAL


After reading your book I am in much more agreement with the idea that urban survival is the most likely scenario that anyone would have to prep for.  Countless stories exist even today where a home invasion happened in rural areas where all occupants were killed with no opposition.  There is a false sense of security when you leave a city, IMO.
2/23/2012 1:40:05 PM EDT
[#8]
Quoted:
Who says they will make it out of the cities?  

If people don't have a bol they aren't leaving to go any where with "the children".

If the Nest is still habitable and there is a thread of sustanace to survive on then

Mama ain't goin no where unless it's to a food distrubution point close by.

Regional disaster ,they will set staging areas and distrubution points and

people aren't straying too far from the hand outs for sure.


The fricken ODDS say they will make it out. Look, take a city the size of Kansas City. Not HUGE, but a larger US metro city. In KC proper there are a little over 450,000. Let's say that 1% make it out.....That's 4,500 people-that's a hell of a lot of people.....and you have to believe that 99% aren't going to die, be realistic.

Even when Rome fell well more than 1% of it's people survived, hell Pompei had a 90% survival rate for Chrissakes. The whole "they're all going to die" is bullshit fantasy land. It relies on convenient stereotypes of "ghetto rats too stupid to do anything and Sheeple who are paralyzed by fear etc....". It is pie in the sky planning.
2/23/2012 1:46:02 PM EDT
[#9]
I've said it countless times, but I'll say it again. Wild game will be nearly wiped out in short order when everybody and their dog starts subsistence hunting. For evidence, I point to deer harvest data from the MN DNR. In 9 short days (sunrise Sat to sundown the next Sunday) over 25% of the state's total deer population is harvested, and the vast majority of those are taken in the 4 days that fall on the weekend, because people still have to go to work. Many hunters don't even actually hunt, they just treat it like a big ol' drunk holiday away from the wives. Others are trophy hunters and will pass on the little buck because they want the big buck. That sort of thing. That's just from people going out for the fun of it, , put the effort and money into finding property, leases, etc to hunt, and adhere to tag limitations and fair chase rules.  What's gonna happen when every yayhoo with a firearm is running around dropping everything that could potentially be cooked? Shit will get scarce, FAST.



If SHTF to the point where everyone is bugging out, you better get farming ASAP.
2/23/2012 1:51:14 PM EDT
[#10]
Quoted:
I've said it countless times, but I'll say it again. Wild game will be nearly wiped out in short order when everybody and their dog starts subsistence hunting. For evidence, I point to deer harvest data from the MN DNR. In 9 short days (sunrise Sat to sundown the next Sunday) over 25% of the state's total deer population is harvested, and the vast majority of those are taken in the 4 days that fall on the weekend, because people still have to go to work. Many hunters don't even actually hunt, they just treat it like a big ol' drunk holiday away from the wives. Others are trophy hunters and will pass on the little buck because they want the big buck. That sort of thing. That's just from people going out for the fun of it, , put the effort and money into finding property, leases, etc to hunt, and adhere to tag limitations and fair chase rules.  What's gonna happen when every yayhoo with a firearm is running around dropping everything that could potentially be cooked? Shit will get scarce, FAST.

If SHTF to the point where everyone is bugging out, you better get farming ASAP.


This may be true on small parcels of land where game moves from place to place. Here in Texas many game animals live their entire lives within the confines of a single PASTURE. We have a place large enough to be self sustaining in terms of game, several sections, that back up to almost 30 square miles belonging to a single owner.
2/23/2012 5:02:35 PM EDT
[#11]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
So with the major popularity of survival it seems to me EVERYONE has the SAME plan to G.O.O.D which is head for the hills or going out to a "Farm" or the country  something along those lines which is ok but it seems like the masses all have the same idea now which creates a problem for us Folk. if Millions of people all have the same mentality don't you think that will backfire? the sheep that don't know how to survive will go about killing each-other & game & animals with no real know how while wasting good meat and food. So my point is...When everyone escapes the city's do you think the rural areas will become the shit stain when shtf?


By all means, dont expect "game & animals" to even be part of your food equation. IF you're thinking of doing that in any way to put food on the table there will already be thousands of others doing the same thing. Animals have been hunted to near extinction before during the 30's and there wasnt nearly as much people as there is today.
FerFAL


After reading your book I am in much more agreement with the idea that urban survival is the most likely scenario that anyone would have to prep for.  Countless stories exist even today where a home invasion happened in rural areas where all occupants were killed with no opposition.  There is a false sense of security when you leave a city, IMO.


how does that differ from it happening in a city?
2/23/2012 5:49:03 PM EDT
[#12]
It differs because in the sticks no one will hear your screams.
2/23/2012 6:22:09 PM EDT
[#13]



Quoted:






how does that differ from it happening in a city?


Same same, but a lot of people assume that it can't happen out in the sticks.



 
2/23/2012 6:44:58 PM EDT
[#14]
Right.

I doubt there will be the kind of SUDDEN SHTF that many preppers expect/fear/hope for.

I do expect a gradual and painful DECLINE in living standards as our citizens come to realize [or don't] that a country can't economically survive as a 'democracy' for long ––once the focus of the production of the country is mostly about providing for the COMFORT and CONVENIENCE of the population [as we HAVE been doing for decades] and IGNORE that a successful/wealthy country MUST be PRODUCTIVE and sell more to the rest of the world than it consumes.

[I realize that this theory falls on mostly deaf ears and most Sheeple couldn't understand the logic of it if someone beat it into their heads w/ a 2x4, incl here on the SF]

What I expect over the next 10 years is an accelerating theft of our freedoms [incl the 2nd Amnt], a reduction in personal property rights [as a means to discourage excellence vs lazy peers], the .gov becoming more and more 'Totalitarian', and increasing poverty and crime [that won't effectively be addressed but likely 'encouraged' -by PLAN].

Along with a more totalitarian state will come an increasing crack-down on 'personal' freedoms, including drug use, no matter what they tell you to sucker you into electing them.

Eventually, as the Left closes in on their end game in maybe 20 years, we will look like a well off Cuba socially and economically, eating our remaining 'seed corn', living under an iron fist Socialist rule, and with countless millions of McMansions having fallen into ruin but with folks still living in them, scrabbling to make ends meet.

While Elite Leftists, having won the GREATEST PRIZE in history, will be sitting pretty [with your most attractive daughters and sons tending to them].

We have been brilliantly 'setup' to have our country STOLEN right from under our noses by the Left [that 1/2 the country LOVES to jump up and down and scream and cheer for, like a bunch of mindless fools at a concert] ––while everyone keeps stuffing shitty distractions into their brains and pay no attention to what's happening around/to them.





2/23/2012 6:47:21 PM EDT
[#15]



Quoted:


Right.



I doubt there will be the kind of SHTF that many preppers fear.



I do expect a gradual and painful DECLINE in living standards as our citizens come to realize [or don't] that a country can't economically survive as a 'democracy' for long ––once the focus of the production of the country is mostly about providing for the COMFORT and CONVENIENCE of the population and IGNORE that a country MUST be PRODUCTIVE and sell more to the rest of the world that it consumes.



[I realize that this theory falls on mostly deaf ears and most Sheeple couldn't understand the logic of it if someone beat into their heads w/ a 2x4, incl here on the SF]



What I do expect over the next 10 years is an accelerating theft of our freedoms [incl the 2nd Amnt], a reduction in personal property rights [as a means to discourage excellence vs peers], the .gov becoming more and more 'Totalitarian', and increasing poverty and crime [that won't effectively be addressed].



Along with a more totalitarian state will be an increasing crack-down on 'personal' freedoms including drug use, no matter what they tell you to sucker you into electing them.



Eventually, in maybe 20 years, we will look like a well off Cuba socially and economically, with an iron fist Socialist rule.


Man, that sucks, but it's not an unreasonable prediction.



 
2/23/2012 7:03:47 PM EDT
[#16]
Quoted:

Quoted:
Right.

I doubt there will be the kind of SHTF that many preppers fear.

I do expect a gradual and painful DECLINE in living standards as our citizens come to realize [or don't] that a country can't economically survive as a 'democracy' for long ––once the focus of the production of the country is mostly about providing for the COMFORT and CONVENIENCE of the population and IGNORE that a country MUST be PRODUCTIVE and sell more to the rest of the world that it consumes.

[I realize that this theory falls on mostly deaf ears and most Sheeple couldn't understand the logic of it if someone beat into their heads w/ a 2x4, incl here on the SF]

What I do expect over the next 10 years is an accelerating theft of our freedoms [incl the 2nd Amnt], a reduction in personal property rights [as a means to discourage excellence vs peers], the .gov becoming more and more 'Totalitarian', and increasing poverty and crime [that won't effectively be addressed].

Along with a more totalitarian state will be an increasing crack-down on 'personal' freedoms including drug use, no matter what they tell you to sucker you into electing them.

Eventually, in maybe 20 years, we will look like a well off Cuba socially and economically, with an iron fist Socialist rule.




Man, that sucks, but it's not an unreasonable prediction.
 


the "big event" many prep for may not be an event at all... but  just a slow, gradual slide into oblivion. this is the worst one to think about, because it's much easier to pretend the 'planers' and 'plan-nots' will be separated right off the bat and either sink or swim. it's hard enough to prep for a 6 month or year time frame. how the hell do you prep for a lifetime? really longterm survival is less prepping, and more lifestyle i think.
2/23/2012 7:07:15 PM EDT
[#17]



Quoted:




So with the major popularity of survival it seems to me EVERYONE has the SAME plan to G.O.O.D which is head for the hills or going out to a "Farm" or the country  something along those lines which is ok but it seems like the masses all have the same idea now which creates a problem for us Folk. if Millions of people all have the same mentality don't you think that will backfire? the sheep that don't know how to survive will go about killing each-other & game & animals with no real know how while wasting good meat and food. So my point is...When everyone escapes the city's do you think the rural areas will become the shit stain when shtf?


People cannot successfully evacuate a Gulf city when a CAT 5 Hurricane is coming and they have 5 days advance notice. The idea any significant amount of the population will flee a city for the country in a true SHTF scenario is laughable.





 
2/24/2012 4:17:52 AM EDT
[#18]
Quoted:

Quoted:

So with the major popularity of survival it seems to me EVERYONE has the SAME plan to G.O.O.D which is head for the hills or going out to a "Farm" or the country  something along those lines which is ok but it seems like the masses all have the same idea now which creates a problem for us Folk. if Millions of people all have the same mentality don't you think that will backfire? the sheep that don't know how to survive will go about killing each-other & game & animals with no real know how while wasting good meat and food. So my point is...When everyone escapes the city's do you think the rural areas will become the shit stain when shtf?

People cannot successfully evacuate a Gulf city when a CAT 5 Hurricane is coming and they have 5 days advance notice. The idea any significant amount of the population will flee a city for the country in a true SHTF scenario is laughable.

 


Only because they have been told too many times that it was "the big one" and it wasn't. People can and do leave cities when they want to- again, NINETY FUCKING PERCENT OF POMPEI GOT OUT. There is no way that at least 10% of most urban areas are not going to make it out and that's a hell of a lot more people than most sticks survivors are prepared to deal with.
2/24/2012 5:34:21 AM EDT
[#19]
Rita might be a better example.  I have friends in League City, TX who were in the initial evacuation zone.  It took them 20 hrs to make it as far as Katy, normally about 45-50 mins., still, 60 miles shy of their BOL.  Many people ran out of gas and ended blocking the roads.  The gas stations ran out as well.  They were calling and asking me to try and find a station online along their route that had fuel.  They ended up having some other friends who live west of their location bring them some fuel.  I guess that was a real learning experience for them.

If this happens on a larger scale, not just regional, I don't think there will be enough fuel and people without will have to hoof it.  I don't think every city dweller is going to make it to the country, but some will.  I hope the delay is enough time to get plans rolling.

2/24/2012 6:11:35 AM EDT
[#20]
Quoted:
It differs because in the sticks no one will hear your screams.

and in the city, they just ignore them.


2/24/2012 9:47:15 AM EDT
[#21]
Quoted:
So with the major popularity of survival it seems to me EVERYONE has the SAME plan to G.O.O.D which is head for the hills or going out to a "Farm" or the country  something along those lines which is ok but it seems like the masses all have the same idea now which creates a problem for us Folk. if Millions of people all have the same mentality don't you think that will backfire? the sheep that don't know how to survive will go about killing each-other & game & animals with no real know how while wasting good meat and food. So my point is...When everyone escapes the city's do you think the rural areas will become the shit stain when shtf?


In true SHTF everything within "survival distance" walk from a major metro area will be toast, and everything within about 300 miles is going to get hit pretty hard.  The only way this won't happen is if it's some sort of pandemic that kills a large portion of the population before they can leave the city.  But if it's the "global economic collapse" kind of thing, where a million people flee the city in cars and another million on foot, well, you do the math.
2/24/2012 2:18:22 PM EDT
[#22]
Being in a rural area doesn't solve all problems, but it is a better foundation.

You need to harden your rural area with extra manpower and organization.

http://wayfarerprotocols.blogspot.com/
2/24/2012 2:37:39 PM EDT
[#23]



Quoted:




Rita might be a better example.  I have friends in League City, TX who were in the initial evacuation zone.  It took them 20 hrs to make it as far as Katy, normally about 45-50 mins., still, 60 miles shy of their BOL.  Many people ran out of gas and ended blocking the roads.  The gas stations ran out as well.  They were calling and asking me to try and find a station online along their route that had fuel.  They ended up having some other friends who live west of their location bring them some fuel.  I guess that was a real learning experience for them.



If this happens on a larger scale, not just regional, I don't think there will be enough fuel and people without will have to hoof it.  I don't think every city dweller is going to make it to the country, but some will.  I hope the delay is enough time to get plans rolling.





Exactly.



They may get a few miles out, but most will not get very far.



 
2/24/2012 4:32:08 PM EDT
[#24]
Quoted:
Quoted:
It differs because in the sticks no one will hear your screams.

and in the city, they just ignore them.




No see, since no one really gets survivalism anymore, they think that their asshole neighbors that turned them in for some minor zoning violation will come charging in and "rescue" them. However in the country everyone lives six hundred thousand miles apart and therefore if a BG came in, they could  rape your gerbil for six days without anyone knowing it.....

I hear the song "Rescue me!" playing whenever I read posts like this....

YOU ARE ON YOUR FLIPPING OWN PEOPLE, WHETHER IT'S IN THE CITY OR IN THE COUNTRY.

Your dumbass neighbor is NOT going to come to rescue you, if your PLANNING is based on that, I pity you. You don't have a real plan. Better to plan on the gubmint to come and save you......

We are on our own. We have to make our own way, whether it's in the city or in the country. I won't argue the city/country thing again cause it's a dead subject, too many emotions and too little critical thought (i.e, Basic math) is given to it.

We are on our own. You are on your own. I am on my own. Repeat it, understand it, most importantly PLAN for it. Being around more people does not make you more safe, quite the opposite actually. Probability says your more likely to have more problems than less.



2/24/2012 5:01:21 PM EDT
[#25]
Quoted:
Being in a rural area doesn't solve all problems, but it is a better foundation.

You need to harden your rural area with extra manpower and organization.

http://wayfarerprotocols.blogspot.com/


Thanks for the link. Good info
2/24/2012 7:41:35 PM EDT
[#26]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Who says they will make it out of the cities?  

If people don't have a bol they aren't leaving to go any where with "the children".

If the Nest is still habitable and there is a thread of sustanace to survive on then

Mama ain't goin no where unless it's to a food distrubution point close by.

Regional disaster ,they will set staging areas and distrubution points and

people aren't straying too far from the hand outs for sure.


The fricken ODDS say they will make it out. Look, take a city the size of Kansas City. Not HUGE, but a larger US metro city. In KC proper there are a little over 450,000. Let's say that 1% make it out.....That's 4,500 people-that's a hell of a lot of people.....and you have to believe that 99% aren't going to die, be realistic.

Even when Rome fell well more than 1% of it's people survived, hell Pompei had a 90% survival rate for Chrissakes. The whole "they're all going to die" is bullshit fantasy land. It relies on convenient stereotypes of "ghetto rats too stupid to do anything and Sheeple who are paralyzed by fear etc....". It is pie in the sky planning.


Sooner or later they will come, and I fear they will act like a never ending swarm of locusts devouring everything in their paths. Beg, borrow or steal will be the order of the day.

Depending on the cause, it could be a migration of the masses.

BT
2/24/2012 8:03:58 PM EDT
[#27]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Who says they will make it out of the cities?  

If people don't have a bol they aren't leaving to go any where with "the children".

If the Nest is still habitable and there is a thread of sustanace to survive on then

Mama ain't goin no where unless it's to a food distrubution point close by.

Regional disaster ,they will set staging areas and distrubution points and

people aren't straying too far from the hand outs for sure.


The fricken ODDS say they will make it out. Look, take a city the size of Kansas City. Not HUGE, but a larger US metro city. In KC proper there are a little over 450,000. Let's say that 1% make it out.....That's 4,500 people-that's a hell of a lot of people.....and you have to believe that 99% aren't going to die, be realistic.

Even when Rome fell well more than 1% of it's people survived, hell Pompei had a 90% survival rate for Chrissakes. The whole "they're all going to die" is bullshit fantasy land. It relies on convenient stereotypes of "ghetto rats too stupid to do anything and Sheeple who are paralyzed by fear etc....". It is pie in the sky planning.


Sooner or later they will come, and I fear they will act like a never ending swarm of locusts devouring everything in their paths. Beg, borrow, steal or KILL will be the order of the day.

Depending on the cause, it could be a migration of the masses.

BT


FIFY





2/24/2012 8:17:54 PM EDT
[#28]
Quoted:

FIFY







Nicely played Sir.
2/24/2012 9:36:39 PM EDT
[#29]
Quoted:
Quoted:

FIFY







Nicely played Sir.


However, I think they are the lesser of the problems. The real issue is internal.



2/24/2012 11:43:22 PM EDT
[#30]
Quoted:

However, I think they are the lesser of the problems. The real issue is internal.


I believe you summed it up quite nicely with this.....

Quoted:
Right.

I doubt there will be the kind of SUDDEN SHTF that many preppers expect/fear/hope for.

I do expect a gradual and painful DECLINE in living standards as our citizens come to realize [or don't] that a country can't economically survive as a 'democracy' for long ––once the focus of the production of the country is mostly about providing for the COMFORT and CONVENIENCE of the population [as we HAVE been doing for decades] and IGNORE that a successful/wealthy country MUST be PRODUCTIVE and sell more to the rest of the world than it consumes.

[I realize that this theory falls on mostly deaf ears and most Sheeple couldn't understand the logic of it if someone beat it into their heads w/ a 2x4, incl here on the SF]

What I expect over the next 10 years is an accelerating theft of our freedoms [incl the 2nd Amnt], a reduction in personal property rights [as a means to discourage excellence vs lazy peers], the .gov becoming more and more 'Totalitarian', and increasing poverty and crime [that won't effectively be addressed but likely 'encouraged' -by PLAN].

Along with a more totalitarian state will come an increasing crack-down on 'personal' freedoms, including drug use, no matter what they tell you to sucker you into electing them.

Eventually, as the Left closes in on their end game in maybe 20 years, we will look like a well off Cuba socially and economically, eating our remaining 'seed corn', living under an iron fist Socialist rule, and with countless millions of McMansions having fallen into ruin but with folks still living in them, scrabbling to make ends meet.

While Elite Leftists, having won the GREATEST PRIZE in history, will be sitting pretty [with your most attractive daughters and sons tending to them].

We have been brilliantly 'setup' to have our country STOLEN right from under our noses by the Left [that 1/2 the country LOVES to jump up and down and scream and cheer for, like a bunch of mindless fools at a concert] ––while everyone keeps stuffing shitty distractions into their brains and pay no attention to what's happening around/to them.


While we might feel as though our Country is being betrayed and stolen from us, I guess they feel they are re-inventing the wheel in all it's glory.

BT