Posted: 6/6/2008 3:38:29 PM EDT
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I see a few stories of how charity donations are down, unemployment is up, truckers are struggling, lower income families are affected, but the news mostly reports just an inconvenience to the average middle-class family. How much longer/at what point until gas prices, etc.. start having a "major impact" on everyday families? Maybe I'm just being a Chicken Little, but things don't seem to be getting better anytime soon. |
| SOme ppl are already past the breaking point. Its just a matter of time b4 EVERYONE is hit with it. THere are ppl really changing their lives around currently. I know I dont shop or drive like I use to. I know I plan my outings and I think real hard "Is this place really worth the gas to drive to?" It sux but when inflation surpasses incomes and pay raises you have to make changes. |
| Thing is when things do get better we can't just remeber the bad times we have to prevent them. My parents were babies during the depression but were raised by parents who went thru it. I was raised on the values but told to do better and have more. Unfortunatly trying to get that into 9 and 11 year olds is tough. WHen they really see there is no more they will know it. How about a decent meal as a christmas present or full 8 hours with Mom or Dad when they aren't working two to three jobs to put food on the table.... |
 i forgot to add the new clothes, 100+$ per week in weed, beer, hennessy etc.. i work .gov housing..they have no fear of not having, they'll yell,scream,kick and kill to get what they want if it gets that far gone.......oh wait....that was nola... 
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Total incomes in the US are shrinking while price inflation is rampant. Overall deflation has cost an asset fall in value of Trillions. Translated, we're getting poorer with less income, less good paying jobs, prices of stuff we need are skyrocketing, and our assets, wealth is shrinking. It won't be long. This has never happened before in the US and we're in uncharted waters. Guessing by end of year and TSWHTF. Or possibly sooner if the .gov can't keep a lid on it. |
| My computations indicate OCTOBER 2008. The ripple affects are now beginning to hit the ground from problems higher up in the system that began to surface a while back, like last July (when we got a taste). They have been propping it up with sticks, straw and shit in the form of monetized debt from the Fed back door and the Treasury truck. The big wave will hit in Sept/Oct. of this year. I think that's when the country will get knocked on it's ass or at least down on one knee. The men that caused all this are going to squeeze us anyway they can and leave a lot of folks standing in a daze, holding their dicks. Man, am I glad I'm prepped. |
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breaking point, whatever the hell that is, is rather subjective. i'm guessing that if many hadn't maxed out their credit cards, bought a house on an ARM, paying interest only and having paid more for their house than they can afford, then $4 a gallon gas wouldn't be as painful. |
I remember Alan Greenspan saying back in the booming 1990's something to the effect that if he were in charge back in the 1920's, we never would have had the Great Depression. His policies helped usher in the tech bubble, then he tried to fix that mess by making it easier to get a home loan, thus ushering in the housing bubble. Now he's gone but if we do have another Great Depression, he will be the one who gave birth to it. We may not be repeating history with our path to another Great depression, but our final destinathion may indead be a repeat of history, and then some.
I've heard the same thing about Sept./Oct. from several different sources. Too many economists are saying that another economic shoe will drop soon. This is not including the real posibility of an attack on Iran and the effect that that will have on gas prices. What concerns me is that you may be able to see the aproaching storm, but you won't know just how bad it will be until it arrives. |
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I don't really have an answer, I work darn hard during 5 days of the week to bring home a tiny check that keeps the bills paid and me fed. I keep wondering how people on welfare or wic or other wealth redistribution plans are dealing with food cost increases. Are these plans set to increase with inflation? I know lots of folks are getting laid off around here, but they can get a lower paying job if they want one. Many I talk to are unwilling to work a lower paying job that they see as being "beneath" them. I expect the fall to be tough, but this winter might be really tough from what I am seeing these days. Heck, I wanted to start filling up my kerosene cans for this coming winter the other day and my favorite gas station has the kerosene pump handles covered with those "out of service" bags. I did not bother going in to ask since I was cruising by and figuring on dropping in later on. But it looks like I get to look a little harder for what I can afford and do want. And that could cause some issues for other folks. I hope it is just my gas station having personal issues. But I have seen some similar stuff and I am not about to say everything else is hunky dory. |
I dont think we have even begun to go near the breaking point. As long as These dumb fucks out here still have there american idol and their 70"plasma tvs , there wont ever be a problem. You can take away their food, they will volinteer to eat trash. Just as long as they can turn on the TV. These moron just wont get a clue, these are the same morons that when they do finnaly get it, you will be looking at them through your scope as they come towards your house with a pickaxe or what ever else they had lyin around. Sorry ifthis seems like I am pissed at the world. Its been a bad day and this about sums up my thought on this subject. |
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The breaking point will happen in another 4 months when people start buying home heating oil at $5 per gallon. At that point a full tank will cost $1000 and most know they will need 3 to 5 of them just to make it thru the winter. That is big money for most people. Here in the NE last year it was at a crisis point for alot of lower income and fixed income (elderly) and that was with oil at $3.20 per gallon. |
Bingo. I'm looking at heating oil prices already for the winter and it's brutal. I was just telling my best friend in Texas, up here you HAVE to have heating oil (or wood stove,etc) to keep warm. It's not like the south where if you don't have a/c you would just be miserable. Here with no heat, you'll freeze to death. |
You speak for a lot of people. Seeing these things happening on the evening news is one thing, seeing them happening in our own community is another. Some are only concerned with their own little world that they fail to see the failed business on the corner or the laid-off neighbor next door. They never consider the possibility that they could be in that position someday.
For some reason this reminded me of an interview with a POW in Vietnam. He said that at his prison camp, the North Vietnamese fed the POW's rice, but the rice had maggots. Some of the POW's refused to eat, but he ate what was given to him, knowing that it was all he had. Soon, those that refused to eat the rice with maggots got sick and eventually died, but he lived to eventually be freed and later give the interview about his experiences decades later because he did do what others refused to do. |
+1 - We laid off 40 people last week, 12 in my group. 8 of those 12 have a job paying more today. Gas is gonna climb, lifestyles will have to change, but I don't think we are hitting a 'breaking point'. Tag for discussion in Jan '09 when things are pretty much like they are now except for Obama. Now Obama could be trouble. |
Why would they fear they dont have a job to loose. All they have to do is show up.. and get handed the government cheese. |
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People I have talked to are really having problems now. I talked with one contractor here in Lehigh Co, he said that the construction company is thinking about closing shop. Fuel has become a major issue with any construction related company. This company was spending over 10K a day just in fuel costs. Some developers are actually selling land that they planned to develop at a later date just to keep things running. Lots of equipment is being sold too. Whats worse is the housing market has not really hit yet in my opinion. I see a lot of houses for sale, not too many are being moved right now. That is going to drive the actual selling price of houses down, which is going to cut into builders profit margins. Speaking for the construction industry, the residential guys are caught in a perfect storm type situation. |
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I think this is just the tip of the iceberg. Things are going to get worse before they get better. Bankers - Foreclosures at record pace, and rising |
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Like many have posted here before: Lower Your Debt Burden. Dump stuff you don't need while you can. Stop impulse buying unless its something important and useful. Stock up on some staple items as you can afford it. Gas prices are affecting everything now - at first they didn't because almost everything in the supply line was there at lower fuel costs for transport. That high fuel cost is coming thru now - it just plain costs more to get it there. There are those who see a strengthening dollar - albeit slowly. Think on this: The next time you pay your 4.00 per gal fuel cost, the Democrat controlled Congress and their weenie liberal/moderate Republican allies recently shot down another bill to allow drilling in areas we know we have lots of oil in. We are struggling and those arrogant, ignorant bastages sit up there and listen to Sierra Club activists among others and vote to prevent America from being more energy independent. Thats not gonna cure all our financial woes, but it wouild ease our transportation cost worries, if we had more oil supply and more refineries. |
Parts of CO are having an energy boom. I'll bet you are in it. The BIG pictue is what counts, not relatively isolated and individual circumstances. |
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There is a LOT of bleeding in the construction business right now. I got in a conversation with one of the plumbers on a site this week. His company is (was) one of the big names in the industry around here. Up until a couple of months ago, they had 75 guys and a fleet of 50 trucks. Now they have 15 guys working (almost all foreman) and are down to 8 trucks. They are struggling to find work for the guys they have left. He thinks the current project might be the last one he does before being let go. This is typical of the stories I have heard over the past couple of months. We are actually slammed right now (worked over 70 hours this week), but the pipeline of future jobs is getting thin. We are taking on everything we can, running hard and fast. My boss is encouraging everyone to save as much cash as they can because he is unsure how much longer we will have work. A couple of our projects have been suspended due to clients being unable to come up with the $ to finish construction. So, there are unfinished multi-million dollar homes sitting. Two of our major competetors have closed up shop in the last 6 months, I have had a few experienced guys come up to me at gas stations and lunch, asking if we were hiring. |
I talked with a good buddy of mine yesterday (he's a financial planner as well as CFO of a chinese pharmaceutical firm) and he told me that as soon as he saw the unemployment rate yesterday morning he KNEW it was going to be bad. He thinks that we're just a few weeks from really feeling the crunch of oil/gas prices, and that gastanks are not the only major hit we'll take. Anything transported will rise accordingly, and we're really not there yet. He expects it to begin within a few weeks. He also predicts massive layoffs due to rising costs and has a very pessimistic outlook for the forseeable future. No one has a crystal ball though... FWIW HH |
You have a good savy boss. |
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www.morgan-florida.org/quick-notes June 5 - Florida at the Precipice of Depression - I was going to call this “Banks March Us Into Depression,” or maybe more fitting is . . . “Complete Collapse of US Banking System.” Folks, that is what we are looking at. I don’t see any way around it. What we’re seeing here in Florida, is your crystal ball. And what happens here, is coming to a town near you . . . soon. This past week I didn’t write anything, because what I am seeing unravel is disturbing to the point I had to question what I was seeing and hearing. So I decided to take as much time as I needed to digest it all, and then put something together for you. So here goes . . . I could prepare volumes of spread sheets with Bernankesque numbers. I could talk about commodity prices and oil and third world politics and a dozen other metrics that all lead to the same conclusion. But let me give you a ground zero look. That’s what I do best. I will leave the manipulation of the numbers to the folks on Wall Street that do it best. The same folks that have created the precipice they will soon push us off. I spend a great deal of time dealing with Asset Managers hired by banks stuck with REOs. So as not to re-hash the events leading to the housing crisis, I will not discuss the free-money policies of the past, and I will not discuss the absolute lack of accountability in making the bad loans of the past. Let’s just deal with how the banks are attempting to recover. Unfortunately, banks are not making a realistic effort to address the crisis. That may be because they cannot. As the banks and builders have announced write down after write down, my mantra has been . . . and continues to be . . . NOT ENOUGH – NOT ENOUGH – NOT ENOUGH. I still believe that. The builders and the banks have underestimated the magnitude of the problem, and they continue to do so. Analysts continue to look at the rear-view mirror and attempt to manipulate numbers based misguided historical assumptions. NAR and the economists continue to twist the numbers, lie and then slip in prior-month adjustments without actually comparing apples to apples. But that is another article. The bankers and the fat cats on Wall Street sit back and watch the carnival, collecting fees from everyone they can snooker. I have recently started turning away REO properties from banks and asset managers, even though hundreds of thousands of real estate agents nationwide are lined up waiting for these listings. I made the decision because we have reached a point where these listings are costing us money, and the asset managers are squeezing harder and harder . . . because they can. There are GREAT asset managers and there are incompetent ones. The majority fall into the incompetent bucket, but we eliminate them quickly. The banks, on the other hand, continue to throw away money with the bucket of incompetent managers. It seems like the mortgage brokers that pushed funny money for the last six years are now starting asset management companies. We still work with a number of asset managers and banks directly, but the list of asset managers is growing smaller as properties fail to sell. When that happens, properties are bundled up and sold in bulk or at auction. This puts further downward pressure on markets because of lower prices and the inventory was not absorbed . . . it just changed hands. Banks cannot afford to take 50-75% hits on mortgages, and that is exactly what is happening. The precipice is here, and we are on it. Recent reports about home sales rebounding are insignificant, because no one is accurately describing the growing inventory build-up. Banks simply don’t have the margins to deal with this crisis. And for that reason, we will see massive bank failures and this will snowball into a complete economic meltdown. If you have an argument against this scenario, I’d love to debate you on a live conference call. We deal with the banks. We know what is going on before the numbers show up at the Fed or any analysts desks. We deal with the public, so we hear the desperation at all levels. I listen to grown men cry about how to explain to their families that they are losing everything. I listen to people that I fear are on the verge of suicide. I read about people committing crimes simply to put food on the table. Spend a week with me, and you’ll understand why there is no feasible way to avoid a Depression. The banks will fail, just as they failed in 1929 . . . but worse because this time some of this leverage is as high as 40:1. Insurance? Where is that going to come from? There is no insurance that can cover the cost of the coming bank failure, unless we just print more money. We are two generations removed from 1929. I am talking about Biblical 40 year generations. And when you look at who we were in 1929 and who we are now, you’ll realize just how ugly it is going to be. In 1929 there was a stronger base of family values. There was a work ethic that we don’t see today. The generation from 1929 – 1969 grew up with a totally different set of values than the generation from 1969 – 2009. The first generation worked their way out of the Depression. Today’s generation doesn’t understand work. We only understand creative financing and how to live off the next generation. And sadly, that is where we are today. We are at the precipice, and we are going to push our children over the edge because we lived so far above our means and ignored all of the warning signs. We lived just like the Romans in their final days. Harsh? Like I said, spend one week with me, and you will go home with a new outlook about life, people and the crisis that is unfolding. You will go home with a sick feeling in the pit of your stomach. Guaranteed. Just Florida? No, but Florida is your crystal ball. The next generation? I would like to think we will eventually build ourselves out of this Depression with nuclear plants, solar and wind farms, seawater desalinization plants, cars of the future and a biotech/health industry that one can only dream of. Unfortunately, who is going to get their hands dirty? For those that study history, how would we manage a WPA with today’s generation? It will be a much tougher recovery, because we have lost the fundamentals that made us the greatest country in the world. Pasted from <http://www.morgan-florida.org/quick-note.. |
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Your eyes see very well! And this is only ONE aspect of the entire situation. Look at any of the other aspects of our meltdown, and it is the same ugly picture. Also, can you say, OWO = One World Order/Government. It's just around the corner. Especially with this "Global Food Crisis" which I think is a ploy, but I could be wrong. StagPower
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Breaking point - as like zombies in the streets and no politicians taxing us to death? Ain't going to happen. We've been hit with a whole bunch more and came back - didn't brake but we have bent some. Are there 5% of the people in homes that they can't afford? Yes. Are we all going to be homeless? No. I'm waiting and watching really hard at the terrorist actions. I don't think they'll do anything with the cowboy on the sunshine switch and they certainly don't want Bush III (the way the media is painting McCain) there. Figure wait for the election results and things to get a bit more tense before letting loose with some sort of biological warfare. Once they hit us with a really big attack we'll see. The mortgage/debt crisis will be forgotten then. |
| We may see something bad or this may be just a bump in the road, I just hope it wakes people up as far as how fragile life can be. It could be terrorist, flood or are own government. We all have our own thoughts, predictions ect. but even if life was to turn back to the good Ole days of 3 dollar gas and Iran and all the other countries stop talkin smack lets learn something from the last few months. |
I believe you're correct. Much of what ails the nation now is a result of poor financial decisions by households. Low savings rate, high credit use, and the assumption that a home is more than shelter, but an investment to be leveraged. It's not the economy per se, it's the stupidity of many Americans that has led to the mortage crisis, and their current debt that now makes the current economic down-turn more painful. People on this website often speak of being prepared, though I would question if they prepared adequately. |
I'm sorry. I guess I wasn't clear. I was saying that the ones who did NOT eat the rice with maggots later died. The ones who ate the rice with the maggots lived (yep, lots of protein). Sometimes you have to do what you have to do in order to stay alive. A similar personal story: I also know a Vietnam POW who filled me in on the proper way to eat a cockroach. First, pull the wings off so they won't get stuck to the roof of your mouth when eating. He also told me a few stories of the torture that he witnessed and experienced. Out of respect for those POW's who endured, I can't give details, but the stories were very, very bad. |
I think that's a part of what is giving me the uneasy feeling. We may all be feeling the pain in a very real way. With gas prices being the catalyst, I see reports that the trucking industry, airline industry, auto industry, as well as any other business that depends on fuel as a major business expense are reaching their limit for making a profit. They will have to raise their prices or go out of business. Raising prices will weed out customers, which will lower earnings, which will lead to lay-offs. What about the businesses and communities that support these industries? Virtually, the same thing will happen to them and so on and so on. Of course the good news is that Wal-Mart said that they won't raise their prices and requires their suppliers to do the same. The problem is that as fuel prices rise at an exponential rate, we may someday be paying $3.25 for that bag containing a single m&m's candy. Odds are pretty high that it will be a brown one, too. 
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All I know is I pray nothing happens at least until I get home from deployment in November.I left the wife and kid plenty of food,4 cases or MRE's,30 extra gallons of water,and they're 8 miles to my buddies ranch,w/ well,livestock and garden.Plus a bunch of my other preps as that's our BOL. But still,the thought of something happening while I'm not there freaks me out.I seriously hope my boss Uncle Sugar figures something out... |
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I drive a truck over the road. I have been asking this same question for the past 18 months. Every week i drive in bumper to bumper traffic. What do i see? OUT OF STATE VEHICLES(in every state i travel in)....I'm guessing on vacation and i'm not talking about mini's or small vehicles. I'm talking Planet killers(btw i have nothing against planet killers) and Huge RV'S. I make a decent living but to run a RV at 4.50-5.15 a gal when these things get less than 10mpg makes me wonder. Maybe there is still room for fuel hikes. Unless everyone is financing all this fuel debt. IF that is the case then all this fuel stuff can't end well. We are starting to have food shortages in some parts of the country for a multitude of reasons. (ie rice and corn). We aren't talking about India but here in the USA. Most people In the USA have really never known sacrifice or suffering not to a life altering effect. This generation is only beginning to know what the WW2 generation lived though. I really don't think it has sunk in yet. This country is full of people who feel entitled. Fuel prices may be high but the pain high fuel prices have yet to trickle down in to everything you buy(not counting fuel). This takes around 24 months. But it's coming. (Wait till the government gets involved can we say crap i can only buy my gas on even days.) |
Some real world examples of the economy would be my inlaws. My father in law has always struggled providing for his family doing drywall. Some years are better then others but the last year has been a nightmare for the family. He's an incredibly hard worker with a solid reputation - but the work just isn't out there. Right now he and his son are taking whatever jobs they can find just to keep food on the table. They have a small farm but are still struggling to get by. They've always been poor - been I guess lately they've been eating a lot of soup and bread to cut down on food costs. Paying for gas to get to any job site is not helping matters either. My inlaws don't have much debt and do most of their shopping at Walmart or yard sales. They aren't out living the good life feeling "entitled". (Yes - the majority of Americans *do* feel entitled). Some here may deny that we have serious economic troubles - or that it's even the primary issue in our nation. So far, the economic woes have mildy touched those with decent pensions or nice middle class jobs. Those who've always struggled are ready to eat dirt to get by. Especially in a state like Maine which is financially destitute to start with. I'm blessed to still have a job though work has been slow. I do a very physically demanding job in an auto parts warehouse - but it's work - and pays decent for the area. My wife is a police officer now and will likely see MORE work as crime continues to rise. Theft of gasoline and heating oil is on the rise. So are burglaries for scrap metal and theft of catalytic converters. Those who are blessed to still have a good job should do everything in their power to get debt free and have funds/supplies set aside for a rainy day. Anyone can lose their job - no matter how secure it may seem right now. Growing up an only child I've slowly learned just how spoiled and selfish I've been. Most of us take for granted that we always have food, running water, gas, heating oil/wood, and can pay our electric bill. The biggest aspect of survival, in my opinion, is being mentally prepared for whatever may come. That's very difficult when many of us who are used to having bills payed for and our only struggle is what to do with our "extra" money. |
Denile isn't just a river in Egypt or somewhere...  http://docs.google.com/View?docid=dtxqwqr_20dc52sm Denial Although this is a bit off the subject of Soviet collapse and what it may teach us about our own, I can't resist saying a few words about denial, for it is such an interesting subject. I also hope that it will help some of you to go beyond denial, this being a helpful step towards understanding what I am going to say here..... Outside this last circle of denial lies a vast wilderness called the Collapse of Western Civilization, roamed by the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, or so some people will have you believe. Here we find not denial but escapism: a hankering for a grand finale, a heroic final chapter. Civilizations do collapse – this is one of the best-known facts about them – but as anyone who has read The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire will tell you, the process can take many centuries. What tends to collapse rather suddenly is the economy. Economies, too, are known to collapse, and do so with far greater regularity than civilizations. An economy does not collapse into a black hole from which no light can escape. Instead, something else happens: society begins to spontaneously reconfigure itself, establish new relationships, and evolve new rules, in order to find a point of equilibrium at a lower rate of resource expenditure. Note that the exercise carries a high human cost: without an economy, many people suddenly find themselves as helpless as newborn babes. Many of them die, sooner than they would otherwise: some would call this a "die-off." There is a part of the population that is most vulnerable: the young, the old, and the infirm; the foolish and the suicidal. There is also another part of the population that can survive indefinitely on insects and tree bark. Most people fall somewhere in between. Economic collapse gives rise to new, smaller and poorer economies. That pattern has been repeated many times, so we can reason inductively about similarities and differences between a collapse that has already occurred and one that is about to occur. Unlike astrophysicists, who can confidently predict whether a given star will collapse into a neutron star or a black hole based on measurements and calculations, we have to work with general observations and anecdotal evidence. However, I hope that my thought experiment will allow me to guess correctly at the general shape of the new economy, and arrive at survival strategies that may be of use to individuals and small communities.... The rest of his essay contains some interesting stuff and some horseshit as well. |
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It's getting bad around here. The construction industry is slowly drying up. My wife is a waitress at Rubey Tuesdays two nights a week. Her tips are half of what they were last year. People are still tipping the same, but there are a lot less people eating out. I think the service and entertainment industries are gonna get hit the worst for the next few months. Reasturants, oil change places, video rental, theaters, golf courses, etc. Basically all the buisness that make the majority of thier profits durring the summer months are gonna see a lot less money this year. Once the full effects of that hit, everything else will get much worse. Amazingly a lot more people seem to be stockign up, getting ready for a bumpy economy. Wally World and Tractor Supply are out of bucketts or lids here, we had to mix and match for a our last bucketting session. Gun sales are up in theese parts, I've had lots of people asking me what gun they should buy recently that have always been the I don't need a gun type. They want one "just in case". More and more people I talk to are starting to stock up. My wife is a moderator on a mothering forum and they have had a threrad going for over a month on getting and storing preps. Theese are your typical suburban house wives mostly. Hell you'd have to be blind not to see it comming though, canned vaggies have gone up 50% at Kroger in the last 2 months. |
It's becoming apparent that the rise in oil prices are linked to speculation of a pending attack on Iran. Just look at Friday's oil price leap after Olmert's statement. I'm wondering if a major military action (after the initial attack on Iran) is required, we may see gas rationing so our military can fuel the war machine. We sure don't have the same values as those who made sacrifices 65 years ago for WWII. There will be a lot of temper tantrums if we are asked to make sacrifices. As many here have pointed out, things are happening at all levels of the economy that give concern, not just gas prices. It makes me wonder what would have happened if the start of the Great Depression had occurred 10 years later to coincide with the flare up of Germany/Japan and the beginning of WWII? That might be the scenario that we will have to deal with. |
Words to think about |