Posted: 8/17/2007 7:16:00 AM EDT
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Well, I'm scheduled to take a trip to Houston next Mon-Wed. Fly down Mon afternoon, fly back Wed evening. If it were you, would you go? 
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HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007 THE CENTER OF DEAN CROSSED THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING BETWEEN ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE AS INDICATED BY THE MARTINIQUE RADAR. AT 0842 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MARTINIQUE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 66 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHED THE HURRICANE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 964 MB...FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 100 KNOTS AND A CLOSED EYEWALL. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES AND OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE. BOTH SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND DATA FROM THE SFMR ON THE PLANE SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING SINCE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. DEAN COULD BECOME A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS THE HIGHEST. IN FACT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. THE MOTION OF DEAN...280/18...CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO RUN WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE AND THE ONLY POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS TO ADD A SMALL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS. THE GFDL SOLUTION INSISTS ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BRINGING DEAN INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AS A STRONGER HURRICANE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE FOR DAY 4 AND 5 IS MORE UNCERTAIN TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 14.6N 62.6W 90 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 15.0N 65.5W 100 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.8N 69.0W 105 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.7N 72.3W 110 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 75.5W 120 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 82.0W 130 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.0W 100 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 94.0W 105 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA  Forcast models. GFS NOGAPS GFDL |
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Yeah, but the GFDL is the outlier model. The other models are in general consensus that the storm will continue W and then to the NNW and cross the Yucatan. Of course as mentioned, the forcast is only reliable for the next couple of days. The direction is more uncertain now that before after that. I think if I lived around Corpus Christi/South Pedro Island/Brownsville Texas, I'd be in full prep mode right now. |
Obviously you haven't read this thread. Nobody in TX seems to be worried about it. |
| Funny thing I live in Corpus Christi and had a girlfriend that runs a SpeedShop in San Antonio call me and ask if we were okay. Seems she had been watching the news of how Corpus was wiped out due to the flood. When I told her we had less then a 1/2 inch she was in disbelief. I asked her if she had here rubber raft ready as the rain was headed her way. The local San Antonio media did not bother to mention the TS was headed their way. |
Well, I can understand their underwhelming response to the media hype. We've experienced it here too, with all the "severe weather experts" in their near apoplectic frenzies screaming about the impending doom...from a tropical storm...  I'm sure that a cat 3-4 hurricane will get the attention of those Texas boys. They can afford to be cavalier about a tropical storm, but they ain't stupid... 
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Don't worry, there are a good number of people down here taking note, since Rita kicked our butts, but it still amazes me. One of my clients noticed my genny and gas cans in the back of my truck......."dang Doc, what ya need all that stuff for, it ain't comin' here" OOOOKKKKK, whatever. And whoever asked if we WANT this to happen, yeah right, you just come down here and live through one of these, and I am not talking hurricane party, get drunk, then fly home, I am talking LIVE THROUGH for the year following. NO I don't enjoy it. Doc |
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Dean is now a major hurricane. Top off your gas supplies now before the prices start to go up. HURRICANE DEAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 145 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007 ...DEAN STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH WINDS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA... AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 145 PM AST...1745Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ON THIS TRACK...DEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS STRENGTHENED. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. BANDS OF HEAVY SQUALLS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ARE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 145 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N...63.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI |
Look for Dean to be a CAT 4 tomorrow. There is a nice tight eyewall forming up and excellent outflow. Scary.   HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007 DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EARLIER TODAY INDICATED THAT DEAN REACHED 110 KNOTS. NEXT PLANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH DEAN AROUND 00 UTC TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EYE FEATURE...NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WHICH ARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASES WESTWARD. THIS WOULD CALL FOR AN OVERALL UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS....GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE STEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN DEAN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK HISTORY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.0N 64.5W 110 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.4W 115 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.4N 70.8W 120 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 74.0W 125 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W 130 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 84.0W 130 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.0W 100 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 22/1800Z 24.5N 96.0W 105 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
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IT seems to have a relatively small destructive wind footprint now, but that can change. When the eye shrinks down, the winds around the eye increase, as did with Wilma, which was the most powerful hurricane in recorded history, and that was just before it whacked Mexico. You will get a taste of what a mega-cane can do when it hits Jamaica tomorrow. It won't be pretty. The only thing that they will see as positive is that it is moving fast. If it only clips the Yucatan, it could very well retain more integrity and that is not nice for the Gulf Coast. If it plots out, the SW part of the Texas Gulf Coast will be exposed to the leading quadrant. This means a further out-reach of high winds, tornadic activity, lots of rain and a high potential for surge phenomenon. If I were anywhere near the coast, I would be matching tide tables with the projected arrival times no matter what shape Dean is in when it arrives. The higher winds will add to the surge, so it could get very ugly. The current high saturation of the ground also means that there will major problems with water run-off, i.e., flooding, and the potential loss of trees and structures already weakened by the water and TS winds. We saw in FL 2004 that when big Frances, moving slow with lots of rain in its huge weather system, moved through, it left a lot of weakened territory. Jeanne, which was relatively weaker, didn't need much help to do damage. I think that being loosened up by Erin will leave a devil's playground for Dean. Evacuation may not be a bad idea, especially for coastal residents if Dean is Cat-3 or higher when it comes in. If you aren't prepared now, secure your possessions as best as you can, pack your valuables and take that vacation you have been promising yourself. I would not fly, because you might not have a nice car to come back to. If you are going to evacuate, make arrangements, i.e., reservations or early warning to relatives/friends, now and get the hell out Mon. evening or Tues. morning at the latest. You will have the 3-day forecast and they have usually been very accurate with current technology. You don't want to get caught up in traffic like the Houston debacle in 2005, you really don't. For those in harms way, good luck and God bless. F |
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A big weather system ... still, the worst of it doesn't stretch out much past 60 miles in the NE and NW quadrants and, as usual, less in the other sections. There is going to be some very heavy flooding damage. I google-earthed Kingston. They are going to get shellacked. The causeway that leads out to the airport and Port Royal isn't very highly elevated. The high tide on Sunday will be at 04:49 PM, which is about the time Dean will be coming in. While the city has some elevation, there is a lot built up all around Kingston Harbor and the surrounding, bay areas on low-elevation land. While I pray that these people would be spared a harsh hurricane, I would be very unrealistic to expect anything less than a disaster. The only thing that they will probably be spared is large amounts of rain, as it will move through relatively fast. They have hills there you can head for, but more elevated buildings will face higher wind speeds. F |