Posted: 6/4/2026 3:08:14 PM EDT
[Last Edit: taliv][Edited]
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survival discussion scenarios seem like they are either wild like EMPs and zombies, or boring and common, like hurricanes. it seems to me like the potential oil shock is something in between; likely, perhaps unavoidable, predictable, and yet the result could be catastrophic. i haven't seen any serious modeling on this, especially 2nd and 3rd order effects. Even guessing 1st order when strategic reserve is empty this summer is difficult. Exxon says $150 / barrel. But what will that do to the economy long term, not just a brief spike? 100% argentina inflation? 10,000% zimbabwe inflation? total gov/societal breakdown? or just 10% of middle class becomes homeless? stock market crash? anyone think it's a non-event? that drilling and refineries will ramp up in time to meet US demand? what will the trump response be when no one can afford gas? or heating oil in the winter? or food assuming we survive the shock, does American society reconfigure to a post-cheap-energy structure? What does that look like? I'm guessing not van life, lol |
| There's no way to avoid the shortage we're riding into. No way to ramp up extraction, and refining to levels that will fill that 20% gap in supply in the short term. |
Award: 24/365 Most likely to be an appendix.
"Dealing with Congress is like trying to have an adult conversation about the credit card with your alcoholic bi-polar Ukranian import wife."
"Dealing with Congress is like trying to have an adult conversation about the credit card with your alcoholic bi-polar Ukranian import wife."
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There is a difference between motor oil shortages and fuel shortages. We won’t have a shortage of fuel here in the US. We will have a shortage of motor oil. Since fuels are globally consumed, lack of supply raises our costs. Simultaneously, as countries around the world line up to buy US oil/fuel at high prices, oil companies are going to make big profits. Big profits for oil companies mean more exploration….which means more oil and eventually, lower prices. In WWII, Americans sacrificed a LOT to win. This is our time to sacrifice (and a pretty mild one at that). Tighten your belts. Make better use of your vehicle to do what you might have done in multiple trips in one trip. Basically, be more frugal. As a nation, we have survived worse. We’ll survive this one too. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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the supply of oil isn't the real issue for us here in America now. The real bottleneck is refining ability. We have more than enough oil. The Brent Crude point the other day was $88/barrel. This will most likely be coming down. That prices are still up is a reflection of American companies selling overseas at a huge profit, and shorting the American market. Folks pay far too much attention to doom and gloom without the facts to back those negative assessments up. |
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: There is a difference between motor oil shortages and fuel shortages. We won’t have a shortage of fuel here in the US. We will have a shortage of motor oil. Since fuels are globally consumed, lack of supply raises our costs. Simultaneously, as countries around the world line up to buy US oil/fuel at high prices, oil companies are going to make big profits. Big profits for oil companies mean more exploration….which means more oil and eventually, lower prices. In WWII, Americans sacrificed a LOT to win. This is our time to sacrifice (and a pretty mild one at that). Tighten your belts. Make better use of your vehicle to do what you might have done in multiple trips in one trip. Basically, be more frugal. As a nation, we have survived worse. We’ll survive this one too. +1. The group 3 based motor oil shortage and/or massive price increases is an issue I believe we will face for the next several years. But like ColtRifle states, give the USA a few years of supply and demand and we will overcome it and solve the problem with increased home grown drilling and refining capabilities. All said and done we will probably be better off for it in the long run and if the restraints are let back even just a bit we could do even more that puts the USA at the top of the "oil" food chain. It is possible that the next few years might get a little spicey on the engine oil front. Luckily for me I took a few very easy and affordable steps to not have to worry about it. I have roughly 4~5 years of oil changes on hand at yesterday's prices. Zero reason for me to overthink the issue any further other than the fact that I find it interesting and enjoy the information intake. *My belief and opinion is based on a lot of information from this forum, combined with my own research reading various articles, opinions and reports. I have zero real life day to day exposure to anything related on this topic. I live in the emergency/ public safety communications sector of the world but am an avid diy motor head. |
Originally Posted By ar-jedi:
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
| I’ve read that there is talk about building a pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The regional politics are interesting given the countries that will have to host the pipeline. In middle eastern Muslim culture, everyone has to get a cut to get anything done so, I don’t know if the political will is there to build a pipeline. But if so, that makes Iran control over the strait irrelevant. Anything to take power away from those shit rats is a great thing. If this speeds up a pipeline build, that would also be fantastic. It’ll take a while to come on line but if it’s one less way for the world to be held hostage by Muslim nuts, let’s get it going! |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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OIl no, government spending yes. Trump's plan is grow the economy to cover our spending and debts. This is common knowledge not my opinion. Nobody has ever done that before but then the world has never been like this before The entire world except us and Poland is managing their decline. "net zero", "Globalization", etc, you know why. Russia has it's war and China is bleeding due to a combination of their housing crisis and manufacturing going to India. I don't know if he will pull it off but he's already succeeded way more than I expected for 1.5 years. You won't like this and some will claim conspiracy theory but I've been a student of history my entire life. We have a way bigger problem and it's quite Machiavellian. As those dictorial and socialist countries that will do anything to stay in power crash, they will go to war. This isn't our first time down this path. All the things we discuss, food storage, heirloom seeds, no debt, precious metals, and yes, even guns and ammo are more important than ever. Trump is trying to turn the tide of a flowing river. |
"We prepare so we don't have to go to the Superdome!"
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I saw that too. $150 a barrel would not only cause shortages, but IMO hyperinflation. Not going to preach to the choir, as I assume everyone in this sub-forum prepares at some level. Encourage family/friends to add $30 a week to their grocery budget. Dry beans, rice, peanut butter, canned meats, water, and etc. In one month, they can have a nice little stash. Then as I told my mother yesterday, don't let it just sit ... use it and replenish as needed. Caution them, don't buy crap they don't eat now. |
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Originally Posted By Cav-Gunner: I saw that too. $150 a barrel would not only cause shortages, but IMO hyperinflation. Not going to preach to the choir, as I assume everyone in this sub-forum prepares at some level. Encourage family/friends to add $30 a week to their grocery budget. Dry beans, rice, peanut butter, canned meats, water, and etc. In one month, they can have a nice little stash. Then as I told my mother yesterday, don't let it just sit ... use it and replenish as needed. Caution them, don't buy crap they don't eat now. I think that’s pretty sound advice. Well, maybe not the peanut butter  …….Just kidding….i hate peanut butter. But, it’s a great source of energy/fats. Preppers love to buy stuff. We fill our houses full of crap we’ll never use and proclaim ourselves “prepared”. Then all that stored food goes to waste because it’s crap we don’t like anyway. We live fairly frugally but there is room for improvement. But, we make a pretty good living and can afford to buy and eat things we like. I’m prepared to change our buying and eating and driving habits if gas/products get extremely expensive. If you are already living paycheck to paycheck, it would be wise to get a second/third etc job, work over time etc. Build up some cash reserves. One of the benefits to high fuel prices is efficiency improvements. School bus routes get shrunk….meaning more efficient use of taxpayer funded gas/diesel. Trucks haul full loads instead of partial loads. Neighboring county switched to a 10 hr/4 day week for their road crews and saw a 15-20% savings on their fuel bill. When fuel prices dropped, they kept the 10 hr/4 day work week. Employees like it better and less fuel consumption. They never would have switched if fuel prices had remained low. It’s the high fuel prices that encouraged efficiency. When gas and fuel is cheap, no one pays attention to efficiency. When fuel prices rise, efficiency rises too. That efficiency typically stays in place (to some extent) after fuel prices drop. High fuel prices also encourage me to be more efficient in fuel usage even though we can afford the higher priced fuel. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Irans entire annual economic output is $300 billion. Our “defense” budget is more than twice that at $800 billion annually (and God only knows what we actually spend since the pentagon hasn’t passed an audit in a decade.) And yet we just surrendered to them and agreed to pay them to rebuild everything we broke. Why? to avoid the “fantasy” of $150/bb oil. |
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Originally Posted By taliv: Irans entire annual economic output is $300 billion. Our “defense” budget is more than twice that at $800 billion annually (and God only knows what we actually spend since the pentagon hasn’t passed an audit in a decade.) And yet we just surrendered to them and agreed to pay them to rebuild everything we broke. Why? to avoid the “fantasy” of $150/bb oil. Thread started with you upset about the potential of $150 barrel oil. Now you seem to have moved to upset that we won’t see $150 barrel of oil. And your statement of “And yet we just surrendered to them and agreed to pay them to rebuild everything we broke.” simply isn’t true. See article at the bottom of this post. Geopolitical issues are complicated. Then, there are things going on behind the scenes none of us know anything about. Our elected officials were elected (by us collectively) to make these decisions. Some they will get right. Some they will get wrong. Same thing would happen if you or I were president. Be patient. The one thing we can be certain of….the world will change. Some changes will be good. Some changes will not be good. Things have been like that since the dawn of time. Sometimes in history what appeared to be a good decision at the time turns out to be a bad decision. Sometimes what appears to be a stupid decision ends up being the right decision. For us as individuals, plan for the worst. Hope for the best. Go live your life. None of us get out of this life alive so make your one shot at life be the best you can make it. Article by Victor Davis Hanson |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: Thread started with you upset about the potential of $150 barrel oil. Now you seem to have moved to upset that we won’t see $150 barrel of oil. And your statement of “And yet we just surrendered to them and agreed to pay them to rebuild everything we broke.” simply isn’t true. See article at the bottom of this post. Odd that you would infer so much about the way I live my life. Not sure if you wrote that for me or yourself. Either way, neither are true. Of course I’m not upset that oil came back down. And yeah it was a total surrender. Hansen offers zero support for his assertion to contrary. The article is just copium. We got nothing out of the war and lost quite a lot and made our enemies stronger. |
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Originally Posted By taliv: Odd that you would infer so much about the way I live my life. Not sure if you wrote that for me or yourself. Either way, neither are true. Of course I’m not upset that oil came back down. And yeah it was a total surrender. Hansen offers zero support for his assertion to contrary. The article is just copium. We got nothing out of the war and lost quite a lot and made our enemies stronger. Well…ok then. Good luck. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt