Posted: 9/19/2026 12:18:36 PM EDT
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What the closure of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could mean for oil flows The article is actually minimizing the issue: The pipeline was built in the 1980s amid fears that Tehran would disrupt shipping through Hormuz during the Iran-Iraq war. And for the first six months of the current war, it was crucial to keeping at least some oil flowing out of the Middle East while most tanker traffic in Hormuz remained at a standstill. Rystad Energy said Monday that an average 2.6 million to 4 million barrels of oil a day moved through the pipeline and out of the Red Sea port of Yanbu since late August — a volume it said is now at risk of “disappearing from the market.” Four million barrels per day is about 4% of the global oil supply, according to the International Energy Agency. Saudi Arabia produced nearly 10 million barrels of oil a day in September 2025, but was down to 6 million barrels per day in August, the IEA said. The pipeline was moving up to 7% of the worlds oil supply: Saudi pipeline to bypass Hormuz hits 7 million barrel goal (March 28, 2026) Global oil reserves are diminishing. US SPR is down from 415.44M on March 20 to 284.96M Sept 11 and falling. The financial markets have been shockingly positive concerning these developments. The situation isn't over. Iran's obvious next step is to simply destroy the Middle Eastern production facilities themselves. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. What if any actions are you taking? |
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Nothing major. I’ve stocked up on 2-3 years worth of motor oil for all my vehicles and equipment. As far as gas, I keep about 60-70 gallons of gas and 20-25 gallons of diesel (generator and tractor) on hand. We have plenty of money to handle the price increases but we also don’t waste money needlessly. So, we make fewer trips and make trips count. For example, we are going to a grandson’s ball game this afternoon in the nearest big city. While there, we will go to Sam’s and Costco and stock up on things we need/want. That way, we don’t have to make a special trip to the city. We are driving less but we also have driving trips planned for later this year and next year. We are going on those trips regardless of the cost of gas but we will put more money aside for gas. Already filled the house propane tanks at $1.89 per gallon. Don’t have a lot of firewood stored but have enough for a winter. Would prefer to have a little more but we’ll be fine as is. Just haven’t had time to cut as much as I would have liked. This “hardship”, like all others before, will end eventually. We will just be careful with our driving and make any trips to stores worth it. I have zero concerns. We have no debt so this is nothing but a blip. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By urbanredneck: I'm just sitting here wondering why higher gas prices under Obama and Biden wasn't an issue to the media? Because the Legacy Media sold out America long ago. They only way Obama could operate (behind the scenes during Biden's term) was epic levels of gaslighting and propaganda. |
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i'll avoid the politics. this is an incredibly complex issue financially. the immediate response would normally be for oil prices to shoot up much higher. the reason they haven't is partly the crack spread and partly the hidden demand destruction. and yes, partly because many nations appear to be draining their reserves. (on the topic of our reserves, it's interesting to hear some say they're only half emptied, while others say the numbers lie and the current level is near practically empty and risks damaging the structure. hard to know who to believe on this, but it would suck to find out we no longer have a place to use due to some damage.) my suspicion is diesel and some derivatives will continue to go way up, while the price of oil probably drops back to the high $80-low90 range near term. followed by more inflation and more demand destruction. for some european nations who haven't stocked up on winter heating oil yet, BOHICA. as for what I'm doing, nothing other than occasionally trading /cl USO SCO CRAK |
| I see that no one is setting up coal to diesel plants. Diesel needs to.settle and remain above $5 a gallon for that to happen. So far it does not appear that any of the pundits and prognosticators haven't brought that up. |
Another old guy
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Originally Posted By taliv: (on the topic of our reserves, it's interesting to hear some say they're only half emptied, while others say the numbers lie and the current level is near practically empty and risks damaging the structure. hard to know who to believe on this, but it would suck to find out we no longer have a place to use due to some damage.) The SPR was somewhere around 700M less than 10 years ago. They were designed to be drained, so I believe they can be. The only question is how quickly and how many of the holding facilities would be damaged by the process. |
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Originally Posted By Ops: I see that no one is setting up coal to diesel plants. Diesel needs to.settle and remain above $5 a gallon for that to happen. So far it does not appear that any of the pundits and prognosticators haven't brought that up. Excellent point! |
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I'm glad my truck is a gasser... Overall, haven't really changed anything. I tend to think America won't be hurt as badly as most other countries. We'll see some increased prices, especially with diesel, and largely get by ok. I would like to see more US based refineries come online and more US oil production. We should have started scaling that up as soon as Russia invaded Ukraine. |
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Originally Posted By Ops: I see that no one is setting up coal to diesel plants. Diesel needs to.settle and remain above $5 a gallon for that to happen. So far it does not appear that any of the pundits and prognosticators haven't brought that up. Coal can be low to higher sulfur content and requires more work to convert to diesel if higher. I would assume this would be especially true with the ultra low sulfur diesel fuel requirements in this country. Similar to sweet vs sour crude oil. The US has both types depending on location. As you eluded, it will be interesting to see if any coal to diesel plants get talked about or built. |
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Most people focus on the negatives of high fuel prices. But there are positives too. Oil companies are making lots of money. That’s a good thing. They will use much of that money to drill for more oil. More oil means lower prices eventually. Higher fuel prices means trucking companies focus on more efficient shipping. Schools get more efficient with bus routes. Businesses learn to run more efficiently. Those efficiency modifications carry over even after fuel prices drop. I dislike high fuel prices as much as anyone. But, I also understand that’s what happens with a global commodity. It has happened before. It will happen again. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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I am stocked up on oil and keep about 90 gallons of gas on hand most of the time. Luckily I am retired and don't have to drive a lot but I do have some road trips coming up. At least my new truck is getting a couple mpg better fuel mileage than the last one. If it gets really bad my dual sport gets close to 60mpg 
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Originally Posted By urbanredneck: I'm just sitting here wondering why higher gas prices under Obama and Biden wasn't an issue to Oh wait, it’s because that’s who they voted for. |
I wanted a mission, and for my sins, they gave me one.
No rules today, sport…just orders.
It’s not about how many people you kill, it’s about how many you save.
No rules today, sport…just orders.
It’s not about how many people you kill, it’s about how many you save.
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This is not a crisis. This is nowhere near a crisis. A lot of you younger folks, born after the late 1960s, don't understand what an energy crisis is. I was a kid, but I remember the 1970s real energy crises ( plural ). A crisis is when there's nowhere near enough to go around. Prices double or triple or more. In 1973 OPEC increased gas prices 70%. Gas is rationed. Non essential vehicles, non work vehicles are the only ones allowed to fill up their tanks every day. Family cars can only put four gallons in the tank every other day. You had even and odd days, and the last number of your tag determined which day you could get your 4 gallons. Gas went from .36c a gallon / $2.55 in today's dollars, to .60-.75c during the 72-73 crisis. Crude prices went from $2.90 a barrel to $11.65 during that same period. That's four times, quadruple the price, in one year. That would be like going from January of this year's price of $66.60 per barrel to $271.06 today. They had to lower the speed limit to 55mph to save on gas. You have to remember, there really weren't any small cars, and almost no cars had an overdrive gear. Transmissions were either 2 speed auto ( GM's Power Glide ) or three speed auto. Almost all of the trucks and cars with manual trans had a three speed. A few sports cars had four speeds, but that was four gears, 4th was a 1:1 ratio, not like today's cars where your highest gear is a .59-.79 :1 overdrive gear. Gas mileage on average was about 14mpg, 8-10mpg in the city and 14-15 highway for cars like the Chevy Caprice or the Ford Full sized LTD ( not the later LTD or LTD II ). There were very few imports, almost none from Japan. That brings me to the big change. Small Japanese , tiny cars started selling like hotcakes. That's what forced the change in American car buyers buying preferences. The domestics started selling Ford Pintos and Chevy Vegas to keep up but there were problems with them, and reliability wasn't very good. Domestic manufacturers were working out the bugs in the small engines, where Japanese makers had been selling them forever and had extremely reliable engines. The second oil crisis in 1978-79 put the Japanese on top. In just a few years Honda and Toyota topped the sales charts. For today to be like the crises of the 70s gas would have to triple or quadruple, and be $15 - $20 a gallon. We'd be restricted to 2 gallons a day. Four gallons wouldn't be restrictive enough due to the high gas mileage of today's cars. We're a long ways off from a crisis, but it could easily get a lot worse. It can't get as bad as it did in the 79s though, because we had very little domestic production compared to what we have now, We can supply ourselves and still have a surplus to sell abroad today. But, it could hurt. |
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Originally Posted By Redman556: This is not a crisis. This is nowhere near a crisis. A lot of you younger folks, born after the late 1960s, don't understand what an energy crisis is. I was a kid, but I remember the 1970s real energy crises ( plural ). A crisis is when there's nowhere near enough to go around. Prices double or triple or more. In 1973 OPEC increased gas prices 70%. Gas is rationed. Non essential vehicles, non work vehicles are the only ones allowed to fill up their tanks every day. Family cars can only put four gallons in the tank every other day. You had even and odd days, and the last number of your tag determined which day you could get your 4 gallons. Gas went from .36c a gallon / $2.55 in today's dollars, to .60-.75c during the 72-73 crisis. Crude prices went from $2.90 a barrel to $11.65 during that same period. That's four times, quadruple the price, in one year. That would be like going from January of this year's price of $66.60 per barrel to $271.06 today. They had to lower the speed limit to 55mph to save on gas. You have to remember, there really weren't any small cars, and almost no cars had an overdrive gear. Transmissions were either 2 speed auto ( GM's Power Glide ) or three speed auto. Almost all of the trucks and cars with manual trans had a three speed. A few sports cars had four speeds, but that was four gears, 4th was a 1:1 ratio, not like today's cars where your highest gear is a .59-.79 :1 overdrive gear. Gas mileage on average was about 14mpg, 8-10mpg in the city and 14-15 highway for cars like the Chevy Caprice or the Ford Full sized LTD ( not the later LTD or LTD II ). There were very few imports, almost none from Japan. That brings me to the big change. Small Japanese , tiny cars started selling like hotcakes. That's what forced the change in American car buyers buying preferences. The domestics started selling Ford Pintos and Chevy Vegas to keep up but there were problems with them, and reliability wasn't very good. Domestic manufacturers were working out the bugs in the small engines, where Japanese makers had been selling them forever and had extremely reliable engines. The second oil crisis in 1978-79 put the Japanese on top. In just a few years Honda and Toyota topped the sales charts. For today to be like the crises of the 70s gas would have to triple or quadruple, and be $15 - $20 a gallon. We'd be restricted to 2 gallons a day. Four gallons wouldn't be restrictive enough due to the high gas mileage of today's cars. We're a long ways off from a crisis, but it could easily get a lot worse. It can't get as bad as it did in the 79s though, because we had very little domestic production compared to what we have now, We can supply ourselves and still have a surplus to sell abroad today. But, it could hurt. Good post  To emphasize…..we have oil production today here in the US we didn’t have in the 70s. Here’s an uncomfortable truth that someone here will probably start shrieking about.….in the early 70s ethanol wasn’t a thing. It came about partially because of the fuel crunch earlier in that decade. So, there’s another source of fuel for our vehicles that we didn’t have during the early 70s oil crisis. If I owned an E85 compatible vehicle, I would DEFINITELY be running it on E85 right now. In my area, it’s more than $1 per gallon cheaper. Yes it gets lower mpg but with the price difference, it’s cheaper per mile to run than the normal E10. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
|
Originally Posted By Redman556: This is not a crisis. This is nowhere near a crisis. A lot of you younger folks, born after the late 1960s, don't understand what an energy crisis is. I was a kid, but I remember the 1970s real energy crises ( plural ). A crisis is when there's nowhere near enough to go around. Prices double or triple or more. In 1973 OPEC increased gas prices 70%. Gas is rationed. Non essential vehicles, non work vehicles are the only ones allowed to fill up their tanks every day. Family cars can only put four gallons in the tank every other day. You had even and odd days, and the last number of your tag determined which day you could get your 4 gallons. Gas went from .36c a gallon / $2.55 in today's dollars, to .60-.75c during the 72-73 crisis. Crude prices went from $2.90 a barrel to $11.65 during that same period. That's four times, quadruple the price, in one year. That would be like going from January of this year's price of $66.60 per barrel to $271.06 today. They had to lower the speed limit to 55mph to save on gas. You have to remember, there really weren't any small cars, and almost no cars had an overdrive gear. Transmissions were either 2 speed auto ( GM's Power Glide ) or three speed auto. Almost all of the trucks and cars with manual trans had a three speed. A few sports cars had four speeds, but that was four gears, 4th was a 1:1 ratio, not like today's cars where your highest gear is a .59-.79 :1 overdrive gear. Gas mileage on average was about 14mpg, 8-10mpg in the city and 14-15 highway for cars like the Chevy Caprice or the Ford Full sized LTD ( not the later LTD or LTD II ). There were very few imports, almost none from Japan. That brings me to the big change. Small Japanese , tiny cars started selling like hotcakes. That's what forced the change in American car buyers buying preferences. The domestics started selling Ford Pintos and Chevy Vegas to keep up but there were problems with them, and reliability wasn't very good. Domestic manufacturers were working out the bugs in the small engines, where Japanese makers had been selling them forever and had extremely reliable engines. The second oil crisis in 1978-79 put the Japanese on top. In just a few years Honda and Toyota topped the sales charts. For today to be like the crises of the 70s gas would have to triple or quadruple, and be $15 - $20 a gallon. We'd be restricted to 2 gallons a day. Four gallons wouldn't be restrictive enough due to the high gas mileage of today's cars. We're a long ways off from a crisis, but it could easily get a lot worse. It can't get as bad as it did in the 79s though, because we had very little domestic production compared to what we have now, We can supply ourselves and still have a surplus to sell abroad today. But, it could hurt. Originally Posted By Redman556: This is not a crisis. This is nowhere near a crisis. A lot of you younger folks, born after the late 1960s, don't understand what an energy crisis is. I was a kid, but I remember the 1970s real energy crises ( plural ). A crisis is when there's nowhere near enough to go around. Prices double or triple or more. In 1973 OPEC increased gas prices 70%. Gas is rationed. Non essential vehicles, non work vehicles are the only ones allowed to fill up their tanks every day. Family cars can only put four gallons in the tank every other day. You had even and odd days, and the last number of your tag determined which day you could get your 4 gallons. Gas went from .36c a gallon / $2.55 in today's dollars, to .60-.75c during the 72-73 crisis. Crude prices went from $2.90 a barrel to $11.65 during that same period. That's four times, quadruple the price, in one year. That would be like going from January of this year's price of $66.60 per barrel to $271.06 today. They had to lower the speed limit to 55mph to save on gas. You have to remember, there really weren't any small cars, and almost no cars had an overdrive gear. Transmissions were either 2 speed auto ( GM's Power Glide ) or three speed auto. Almost all of the trucks and cars with manual trans had a three speed. A few sports cars had four speeds, but that was four gears, 4th was a 1:1 ratio, not like today's cars where your highest gear is a .59-.79 :1 overdrive gear. Gas mileage on average was about 14mpg, 8-10mpg in the city and 14-15 highway for cars like the Chevy Caprice or the Ford Full sized LTD ( not the later LTD or LTD II ). There were very few imports, almost none from Japan. That brings me to the big change. Small Japanese , tiny cars started selling like hotcakes. That's what forced the change in American car buyers buying preferences. The domestics started selling Ford Pintos and Chevy Vegas to keep up but there were problems with them, and reliability wasn't very good. Domestic manufacturers were working out the bugs in the small engines, where Japanese makers had been selling them forever and had extremely reliable engines. The second oil crisis in 1978-79 put the Japanese on top. In just a few years Honda and Toyota topped the sales charts. For today to be like the crises of the 70s gas would have to triple or quadruple, and be $15 - $20 a gallon. We'd be restricted to 2 gallons a day. Four gallons wouldn't be restrictive enough due to the high gas mileage of today's cars. We're a long ways off from a crisis, but it could easily get a lot worse. It can't get as bad as it did in the 79s though, because we had very little domestic production compared to what we have now, We can supply ourselves and still have a surplus to sell abroad today. But, it could hurt. I think you are judging the crisis by the end effects. In terms of disruption this is much worse and appears to have only begun. Some comparisons per ChatGPT: the physical oil disruption is substantially larger than either of the major 1970s oil shocks on a daily basis Attached File Peak loss as percent of demand was 8% in 1973-74, 9% in 1979, and is 13.6% today The Legacy media is trying to put it's best spin on it, but confirms the 13.6% How does the Iran crisis compare with the 1979 oil shock? Per ChatGPT: But 1979 remains more severe in cumulative terms because the Iranian production collapse persisted for years. And the ultimate economic impact of 2026 will depend heavily on how long the Hormuz disruption and Middle Eastern production losses persist. |
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Originally Posted By R_S: I think you are judging the crisis by the end effects. In terms of disruption this is much worse and appears to have only begun. Some comparisons per ChatGPT: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/33354/oilshock_jpg-3830135.JPG Peak loss as percent of demand was 8% in 1973-74, 9% in 1979, and is 13.6% today The Legacy media is trying to put it's best spin on it, but confirms the 13.6% How does the Iran crisis compare with the 1979 oil shock? Per ChatGPT: What you are missing was the US was a global importer of most of our oil in the 70s. We are a global producer now. So, we are seeing prices rise since oil is a global commodity but we aren’t seeing shortages because we have plenty. The rest of the world IS seeing shortages. Thanks to the oil companies pumping oil here in the US, we aren’t seeing shortages like we did in the 70s here in the US. Americans should be thanking American oil companies not cussing them. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By AJE: I'm bitching about gas prices and continuing to vote for Republicans even though they really don't deserve it. The average American doesn’t understand how the world actually works…..and sadly, doesn’t care to educate themselves about it. During the founding of this nation, only about 1/3 supported freedom from the Crown. 1/3 wanted to remain under the Crown. 1/3 were neutral and didn’t take either side. (The specific numbers have been argued but what is agreed upon is the support for independence was less than 50% of the population) Thankfully our founding fathers were smarter than the majority of people living in America at the time and didn’t listen to the doomers of the day. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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95% of oil we produce is light sweet crude 70% of our refineries are optimized for heavy sour crude we produce 13m bb/d, export 4m, and import 6.5m of the heavy sour. i'd be curious to know how long it takes and if our domestic refineries are planning to do a turn around but my total uniformed opinion is that won't happen as long as we are at 98% capacity and selling everything we make for $$$. my guess is if imports stopped for a while, we would be forced to shut down some plants, and they might take that opportunity to reoptimize. i'm just guessing though. |
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This is a recent and detailed breakdown of the situation: Oil markets strain to plug the gap left by Middle East supply shortfall Six months after the start of the Middle East conflict, oil production and exports from the Gulf remain heavily restricted. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged only 7.6 mb/d in August, according to the latest data. That puts them 13.1 mb/d below pre-war levels, with cumulative export losses via the waterway approaching 2.8 billion barrels. However, implied and observed inventory draws have been significantly lower than the headline supply loss. IEA balances show a much smaller deficit of 2.2 mb/d in the second quarter of 2026 and 1.7 mb/d in the third quarter due to a number of offsetting factors. Firstly, oil markets entered the crisis with ample supply and a surplus of more than 1 mb/d. As OPEC+ producers gradually unwound production cuts over the course of 2025, global oil supply exceeded demand by 1.4 mb/d on average last year, according to IEA balances. The surplus exceeded 2 mb/d in the second half of the year, resulting in significant stock builds, most notably in China. As the crisis unfolded this year and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was stifled, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) quickly diverted what supplies they could to ports bypassing the Strait. Exports from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu and the UAE’s Gulf of Oman port of Fujairah rose from 4.1 mb/d in February to a high of 7.8 mb/d in June – before Houthi attacks in the Red Sea cut those flows back to 5.5 mb/d in August. Increased flows from these bypass routes have offset more than 500 mb, or 2.8 mb/d, of losses from the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the conflict. Attacks on the Saudi East-West pipeline that carries oil to Yanbu resulted in its shutdown in early September, curtailing bypass flows further. Amid the losses of supply from the Gulf, producers outside it have raised output, adding a cumulative 420 mb, or 2.3 mb/d of oil supply, since the start of the war. Substantial gains between February and August came from the United States (+520 kb/d), Brazil (+470 kb/d), Kazakhstan (+440 kb/d), Venezuela (+300 kb/d) and Nigeria (+200 kb/d) – while global biofuels supply rose seasonally by 890 kb/d over the same period. Supply-side adjustments have been reinforced by an equally important demand response. Overall, we estimate that global oil demand over the past six months has averaged 5.8 mb/d less than in February, which equates to a cumulative demand reduction of more than 1 billion barrels. Some governments, notably in Asia, have implemented fuel rationing and emergency conservation policies, while product supply shortfalls and higher prices have cut consumption in other countries. Even after these supply and demand adjustments, global oil inventories have been drawing at record rates of 2.8 mb/d over the past six months. Observed oil stocks are now 507 mb lower than they were at the onset of the war, with IEA Member countries having released more than 300 mb of emergency stocks as part of the historic collective action announced on 11 March. |
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| I had three cars to myself up to last year. Two went to the junkyard and the last one I sold to Carmax for a decent amount. I now share a car with my wife. Also have two adult children living at home, each with a car. No lack of cars around if needed. I also walk about 20 miles a week. WFH so I am not really impacted that much directly. If I still had to commute to work I would probably be unhappy. |
Well, I was drunk the day my mom got out of prison....
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I've got nothing. We're both retired and I probably gas up both cars every month or so (at 1/4 tank). We downsized and built a well insulated home 20+ years ago. Utilities average about $100/mo each (gas, elec, water).  |
"Peace is that brief glorious moment in time when everyone stands around, and wise men are reloading."
-Somebody that's been there.
-Somebody that's been there.
| I'm thinking I'm going to have to bite the bullet and buy enough diesel to get me through fall harvest and wheat planting before it goes even higher, and I'm still debating if I want to fill the gas tank at the same time so I'd be covered for several months if things go worse. |
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Originally Posted By AJE: I'm bitching about gas prices and continuing to vote for Republicans even though they really don't deserve it. Seriously. There really is no good alternative. |
I wanted a mission, and for my sins, they gave me one.
No rules today, sport…just orders.
It’s not about how many people you kill, it’s about how many you save.
No rules today, sport…just orders.
It’s not about how many people you kill, it’s about how many you save.
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Originally Posted By AJE: I'm bitching about gas prices and continuing to vote for Republicans even though they really don't deserve it. None of them do and never have. Government is a necessary evil not our savior. It's always been the lessor of two evils. As for 1973, I don't care which way they string stats, it was way way worse. Total dependence crashed our entire economy. We didn't even begin to come out of it until, ACTUALLY the 80 Olympics Hockey win which brought patriotism and optimism back and the 8 years of Reagan and 8 of Bill Clinton. Inflation was 20% under Jimmy and mortgages 13.5% and it was then they froze all over our wages. In regards to what are you doing? Guys if you missed the war on oil by the left, you weren't paying attention. I own seven vehicles not counting my boat and two motorcycles. They scream, EVs, but where they want us is on Mopeds. |
"We prepare so we don't have to go to the Superdome!"
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Trying to keep gas and stove oil reserves stocked up while prices are still a bit lower. Buying a smaller woodstove to replaces the giant POS Blaze king. So we can burn less wood and burn at warmer temperatures. We idle down the river if we go way upriver to save gas. |