Posted: 10/16/2023 12:24:12 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Trollslayer][Edited]
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My original exodus thread dropped off due to age. Here's more from FOXNEWS on the topic. (FOX NEWS) - Americans are continuing to flee liberal states like New York and California for better home prices and taxes, but business experts warn the Biden economy is creating new problems for happy movers. VonFinch Capital founder and real estate investor Steven Pesavento said that during the pandemic, employees realized they no longer needed to live in the cities where they worked, which created new opportunities for a flexible lifestyle. "It opened up an opportunity for them to get away from, you know, the high cost of living, the kind of oppressive civil policies and business policies, the high taxes, all of those things that they were willing to stay put over because it was what they needed for their job," Pesavento said. California saw its first-ever population decline in 2020 when the state imposed rigid lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic. From January 2020 to July 2022, the state lost well over half a million people, with the number of residents leaving surpassing those moving in by almost 700,000. MyEListing.com, an online real estate portal, studied IRS migration data and found that California lost more than $340 million in 2021 IRS tax revenue due to residents moving. New York experienced the second-biggest drop next to California, losing just under $300 million from its yearly tax base. "A lot of people left," Pesavento said. "It was the biggest migration pattern since 1990 and likely the biggest even before that. So, a lot of people moved. They moved really quickly. And once people take an action, once they do that, a lot of people are choosing not to go back." Pesavento noted that while cities like New York and Los Angeles have seen somewhat of a "revitalization" as COVID restrictions loosened, it is nowhere near the social and economic boom seen pre-pandemic. He said many homeowners continue moving to places like Texas, North Carolina, Florida and other states and small cities that better represent their values. "They're chasing lower taxes, they're chasing better business policies, and they're chasing a better way of living," Pesavento said. "They're also looking for other people who believe what they believe and to kind of get away from all the craziness that's been happening in schools in those local areas where they used to live." Real estate coach and business expert Josh Cadillac told Fox News Digital that migration to red states remains strong from its peak in 2021. He said that many people decided to move to places where they were "treated like adults" and could circumvent the paranoia and government restrictions that came along with the pandemic. While the commercial and office market remains muscular in Florida, Cadillac said the entire New York tax base has been "decimated" and the city is struggling to repurpose building vacancies. "What we saw was one of the greatest domestic migrations we've seen since the end of slavery. I mean, people have moved in unbelievable droves. They voted with their feet to leave places where they lost their autonomy, to go to places where they could," he said. |
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Here is an excerpt from the linked article on California's population changes. Not only are the total numbers huge, a large number of middle-aged people are leaving. Those people and their kids typically form the bulk of the shooting community. "Increasingly, California’s demographics resemble the pattern of out-migration long associated with northeastern and midwestern states. Since 2000, more than 4 million net domestic migrants, a population about the same as the Seattle metropolitan area, have moved to other parts of the nation from California. Since 2020, the pace has picked up, with almost 1. 5 million domestic migrants in just four years." "Many leaving the state are in their 30s and 40s, precisely the group that tends to buy houses and start businesses. In 2022, California lost over 200,000 net migrants older than 25, the bulk of whom had either four-year or associate degrees. The groups showing the biggest tendency to leave, according to IRS numbers, are those in their late 30s to late 50s, which includes people who tend to have families." California's Golden Road to Decline |
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Another report clarifies magnitude and duration of the exodus, its causes and consequences* - According to the U.S. Census Bureau, an astonishing 8.5 million people have moved out of California since 2010. In 2023 alone, the last full year for which estimates are available, 690,000 people left. In 2022, 818,000; in 2021, 841,000. No other state has sustained anywhere near this 15 years of unrelenting mass exodus. * Link to article |
| Good. Fuck California and it's leadership. Credit card is maxed out, and it's time for them to pay the bill. Newscum needs his feet held to the fire. |
Watching the kids shoot Pieeater's 1919 was great. Nothing warms the heart more than seeing a little kid kneeling in a pile of brass and links.-Pthfndr after the Nov 13th NorCal shoot
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Originally Posted By -Blue-: Good. Fuck California and it's leadership. Credit card is maxed out, and it's time for them to pay the bill. Newscum needs his feet held to the fire. He cannot and will not pay the bill, you will. Newsum announced there's a $12B budget shortfall for next year. There's also the annoying little fact that CA pays $12B for healthcare for illegals. If they stopped wasting our taxes like that, the budget would be balanced OVERNIGHT! |
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Originally Posted By Trollslayer: I can't get over this - According to the U.S. Census Bureau, an astonishing 8.5 million people have moved out of California since 2010... No other state has sustained anywhere near this 15 years of unrelenting mass exodus. Now figure out the illegal alien influx |
Watching the kids shoot Pieeater's 1919 was great. Nothing warms the heart more than seeing a little kid kneeling in a pile of brass and links.-Pthfndr after the Nov 13th NorCal shoot
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This article is a bit of a rant but buried in it are a lot of valid explanations for the cause of the exodus. The article also has an embedded link to the demographics of people moving to Washington State and where they are going within Washington. TLDR - it's Newsom, out of control bureaucracy, business-unfriendly, over-taxation, over-regulation, crime, cost of housing, cost of living. Link to article |
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Ever and on it goes,... The demographics of my area have visibly and dramatically changed and the change continues. Roughly 100,000 Californians are moving to Texas a year—the equivalent of the population of Santa Barbara, according to a new study... “This makes California the largest source of newly-minted Texans, accounting for about 16% of all state-to-state migration into Texas, followed by Florida and Louisiana,” the report states. Six of the top 10 California-to-Texas moving routes began in Los Angeles County, the report found. “"A steady west-to-east migration” is “increasingly urgent,” the analysis states, because policies in California have not improved. "California’s high housing costs, state income taxes, and overall affordability are pushing many Californians to seek out lower-cost, opportunity-rich alternatives,” it says. “For families, remote workers, and retirees alike, Texas offers the allure of spacious housing that is 63% less expensive, job diversity, and no state income tax — a powerful combination in a time of economic fluctuations.” Link to article on Daily Signal |
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To those in states that are seeing an influx of Californians and complaining about it, we're just sending you back the descendants of all those who migrated here starting with the Great Depression and Dust Bowl. And we won't even mention the almost 10% growth caused WWII in 1943. A lot of those from WWII didn't go "home". Heck in the 50's we were pretty much over 4% in growth for the decade. Now these are percentages. Consider the growth during WWII and a bunch of those boomers were born to immigrants from other states. As much as the fine weather and joy of outdoor sex might have contributed to our population, they sure aren't responsible California becoming the most populace state. |
"Go low, go slow and preferrably in the dark", the old Sarge.
"Every man needs at least one good rifle and know how to use it," Dad.
"Every man needs at least one good rifle and know how to use it," Dad.
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I don't mean to totally derail the thread here, but I like to look are large acreages in rural areas around the country a the MLS real estate sites. Even CA. Looking at NorCal, there are some pretty large holdings for sale, 500 acres+, for far less per acre than you'd find anywhere in the midwest right now. Obviously not coastal land, but is it just more outward migration, taxes, crime, or what? Looks like many of them were small grow operations and got taken out by legal pot? |
"The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there."
L.P. Hartley
L.P. Hartley
| Most of the land used for pot before legality was used by squatters. Now some is used by meth squatters. Particularly in NorCal older folks that owned the land are passing, and the kids don't want the problems associated with it. |
"Go low, go slow and preferrably in the dark", the old Sarge.
"Every man needs at least one good rifle and know how to use it," Dad.
"Every man needs at least one good rifle and know how to use it," Dad.
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Originally Posted By FZJ80: I don't mean to totally derail the thread here, but I like to look are large acreages in rural areas around the country a the MLS real estate sites. Even CA. Looking at NorCal, there are some pretty large holdings for sale, 500 acres+, for far less per acre than you'd find anywhere in the midwest right now. Obviously not coastal land, but is it just more outward migration, taxes, crime, or what? Looks like many of them were small grow operations and got taken out by legal pot? Farmers and farming are under siege here in California. The State seems to be doing everything they can to put them out of business. Whether it is restricting water, eliminating use of pesticides and herbicides, taxation,... For them, it is an existential crisis, hence, all the property for sale. California's status as the #1 agricultural state in the nation is under threat by its government. What I've read is that you cannot make a profit as a legal marijuana grower. It is over-regulated and taxed and the illegal growers can and will undercut your prices (by a lot). I have also heard there is a lot of violence associated with the conflict between legal and illegal growers. The result is a lot of NorCal pot farms are for sale. These are things I have read. I'm not an expert on this in any way. Also, I have no personal knowledge or experience of them. |
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I saw yet another article on the exodus out of California. Here are a few points which caught my interest. The full article is at THIS LINK. "California is losing one taxpayer every minute as residents flees failed policies." "California saw a lost 9 billion dollars in taxpayer funds during 2018, this number dramatically increased to 29 billion dollars lost in 2020." "Florida, by comparison, experienced an explosion in tax revenue, gaining up to 39 billion dollars in 2020 alone from new residents."  In this graphic, the small numbers are the average time between taxpayer moves into (+) or out of (-) each State. California is the taxpayer loss leader at one move out every -1 minute, 44 seconds. |
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Originally Posted By FZJ80: I don't mean to totally derail the thread here, but I like to look are large acreages in rural areas around the country a the MLS real estate sites. Even CA. Looking at NorCal, there are some pretty large holdings for sale, 500 acres+, for far less per acre than you'd find anywhere in the midwest right now. Obviously not coastal land, but is it just more outward migration, taxes, crime, or what? Looks like many of them were small grow operations and got taken out by legal pot? From what I understand legal pot grows are not doing well. It's overtaxed and regulated, and illegal grows (many run by the cartels) are making buck. Part of the issue is that weed is essentially decriminalized, and the cartel grows can undercut them in the market. My idiot BiL invested in legal pot and lost money. LOL. |
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Originally Posted By DonS: From what I understand legal pot grows are not doing well. It's overtaxed and regulated, and illegal grows (many run by the cartels) are making buck. Part of the issue is that weed is essentially decriminalized, and the cartel grows can undercut them in the market. My idiot BiL invested in legal pot and lost money. LOL. Correct. My inlaws have family that tried the whole legal pot thing. The permitting and all of that drove him out of it. Seems like most growers are just doing it under the radar and trying to not get caught since it essentially seems like a slap on the wrist. |
Watching the kids shoot Pieeater's 1919 was great. Nothing warms the heart more than seeing a little kid kneeling in a pile of brass and links.-Pthfndr after the Nov 13th NorCal shoot
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From Wikipedia: Population Trends Recent Growth In 2024, California's population increased by 108,000 people, marking the second consecutive year of growth after a period of decline during the COVID-19 pandemic. The state experienced a population loss from 2020 to 2023, primarily due to high mortality rates and net domestic migration to other states. I'd bet the farm the increase is from illegal immigration. Exodus of taxpayers and an influx of nontaxpayers. i remember Newsom on the news saying all the folks caravaning up from S America could come into CA if it were up to him. Who in there right mind would make a statement like that? That was several years ago. Now a state that had a reserve in the budget is now consistently raising taxes year to year trying to keep up with the budget expenditure. |
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Originally Posted By Blowout: From Wikipedia: Population Trends Recent Growth In 2024, California's population increased by 108,000 people, marking the second consecutive year of growth after a period of decline during the COVID-19 pandemic. The state experienced a population loss from 2020 to 2023, primarily due to high mortality rates and net domestic migration to other states. I'd bet the farm the increase is from illegal immigration. Exodus of taxpayers and an influx of nontaxpayers. i remember Newsom on the news saying all the folks caravaning up from S America could come into CA if it were up to him. Who in there right mind would make a statement like that? That was several years ago. Now a state that had a reserve in the budget is now consistently raising taxes year to year trying to keep up with the budget expenditure. I would bet you're right. The illegals aren't worried in CA like they are other states. |
Watching the kids shoot Pieeater's 1919 was great. Nothing warms the heart more than seeing a little kid kneeling in a pile of brass and links.-Pthfndr after the Nov 13th NorCal shoot
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Originally Posted By Blowout: From Wikipedia: Population Trends Recent Growth In 2024, California's population increased by 108,000 people, marking the second consecutive year of growth after a period of decline during the COVID-19 pandemic. The state experienced a population loss from 2020 to 2023, primarily due to high mortality rates and net domestic migration to other states. I'd bet the farm the increase is from illegal immigration. Exodus of taxpayers and an influx of nontaxpayers. i remember Newsom on the news saying all the folks caravaning up from S America could come into CA if it were up to him. Who in there right mind would make a statement like that? That was several years ago. Now a state that had a reserve in the budget is now consistently raising taxes year to year trying to keep up with the budget expenditure. Biden "saved" CA, at least in terms of population. CA also gave illegals (the poor ones, i.e., most of them) free medical care, which helped the state to spend itself into more debt. |
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Latest population trend based on the December CA Dept of Treasury report. https://www.sfgate.com/california/article/california-population-up-officials-issue-warning-21257375.php |
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Originally Posted By Blowout: Latest population trend based on the December CA Dept of Treasury report. https://www.sfgate.com/california/article/california-population-up-officials-issue-warning-21257375.php That's a decent article. This is the part that is important to this topic - "Domestic outmigration ... grew from 2023 to 2024, a sign that the state is still failing to retain residents. The estimates show about 216,000 people exiting California." There's also this tidbit - "The report also hints at more losses to come in the next fiscal year, since most international humanitarian migration programs - were terminated in 2025. (The 2024-2025 numbers for international migration into California were already just half of the previous year’s.)" So, the exodus continues. P.S. - The most important aspect of the "exodus" is who is leaving and what they are taking with them when they go. It's not as simple as a body count. It's about the type of people emigrating compared to those immigrating. For example, is some of our knowledge base or some of our economic "engine" being lost when they leave? |
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Large companies leaving CA -> https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-leaving-california-list-2025-7?op=1 More (all generations) leaving CA than any other state -> https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article312903690.html Who's leaving -> https://www.ppic.org/blog/whos-leaving-california-and-whos-moving-in/ Attached File |
Here's a view of Chevron and others leaving CA: Failed To Load Title |
Hello from beautiful Florida.  We were in the first wave to leave in '94. Best decision we ever made was to decide not to raise our kids in SoCal. There were soooo many reasons not to be there. Today we have 3 adult successful patriotic citizen offspring and 4 wonderful grandchildren that never would have happened if we'd stayed there. We don't vote for Dems ... ever. Never have, never will. No one in our family does or ever will. The Dems have ruined CA and will continue to make it worse. They're a cancer on society and CA is the proof. |
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Originally Posted By SystemFailCoreDump: Hello from beautiful Florida. We were in the first wave to leave in '94. Best decision we ever made was to decide not to raise our kids in SoCal. There were soooo many reasons not to be there. Today we have 3 adult successful patriotic citizen offspring and 4 wonderful grandchildren that never would have happened if we'd stayed there. We don't vote for Dems ... ever. Never have, never will. No one in our family does or ever will. The Dems have ruined CA and will continue to make it worse. They're a cancer on society and CA is the proof. Good for you, congratulations! Yours sounds like a life well-lived. |
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Please try to keep this thread about population, about demographic changes,... about the exodus. I understand root causes are important but don't let the political pontificating get too out of hand in this thread. It would be too easy to turn this into a rant, which I do not want. If there is info on the inflow of replacement population, that has a place herein. After all, 8.5 million have left yet the net change is relatively small. Who back-filled for all the escapees? |
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Originally Posted By Trollslayer: Please try to keep this thread about population, about demographic changes,... about the exodus. I understand root causes are important but don't let the political pontificating get too out of hand in this thread. It would be too easy to turn this into a rant, which I do not want. If there is info on the inflow of replacement population, that has a place herein. After all, 8.5 million have left yet the net change is relatively small. Who back-filled for all the escapees? Illegals and tech workers is where my bet is at |
Watching the kids shoot Pieeater's 1919 was great. Nothing warms the heart more than seeing a little kid kneeling in a pile of brass and links.-Pthfndr after the Nov 13th NorCal shoot
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There is a prediction of $8+ gas in CA due to the closure of refineries. We are also losing a major pipeline transporting crude to a refinery. It isn't easy to re-open refineries and the pipeline probably can't be reopened due to the type of crude is uses. CA is creating a serious transportation energy problem. |
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Okay, please stop with the posts about anything other than population changes (the "exodus"). If you want to discuss anything else, start a separate thread on that topic. I found this today, regarding the migration. Link to article is HERE. " From 2010 through 2024, almost 10 million people moved from California to other states, while just over 7 million moved in. In other words, Californians are going to self-deport to other states in even larger numbers." |
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Valero has just shut down it's oil refinery and other oil companies leaving CA is contributing to the exodus... Excerpt from below linked article: Ariza warned that as refineries go dark, more Californians will also skip town, noting that the oil and gas industry supports 536,770 jobs and pumps $338 billion into the state's economy, the outlet reported. Businesses leaving CA and folks loosing jobs, cause and effect. Those in the refinery biz will have to leave the state to find related work. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/california-gas-prices-expected-to-soar-as-valero-shutdown-worsens-oil-crisis/ar-AA1VFNTH |
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All of these changes are quite deliberate and literally chasing people out of the State. One wonders, why? What's their objective? "We need to chase all the hard-working, talented people out of the State. We can then back fill (replacement population) with,... ?" Millions and millions have moved. What's the plan? |
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Originally Posted By Trollslayer: All of these changes are quite deliberate and literally chasing people out of the State. One wonders, why? What's their objective? "We need to chase all the hard-working, talented people out of the State. We can then back fill (replacement population) with,... ?" Millions and millions have moved. What's the plan? Oppositional defiance disorder. So open minded their brains have fallen out. The state loves low wage slave labor. Soon it will be filled with elites and tech workers, and their government subsidized illegal slave labor population. Everything in between will be gone. |
Watching the kids shoot Pieeater's 1919 was great. Nothing warms the heart more than seeing a little kid kneeling in a pile of brass and links.-Pthfndr after the Nov 13th NorCal shoot
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Apparently, the exodus is causing large net reductions as the immigration into California has slowed or stopped. Those who leave are seeing a 30% drop in rental costs and a 48% increase in homeownership (which is huge). <-- Wah hoo!, good for them. What follows are excerpts from the article linked below. That’s the takeaway from several recent reports showing that the population decline in California is becoming extreme, but that the people who choose to leave the state are finding life much better—certainly more affordable—elsewhere. Census data published in late March highlighted a dramatic population drop in Los Angeles County from 2024 to 2025. The region recorded the largest population drop of any in the nation between July 2024 and July 2025, according to newly released estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau,” the New York Post reported. “The data, published March 26, shows roughly 54,000 residents left the county during that one-year period. The losses mark a continuation of a steady slide for the nation’s most populous county.” A study by the University of California, Berkeley found that Californians who left between 2016 and 2025 have generally found more affordable places to live and have seen “large increases in homeownership.” The California dream is dying as its residents are waking up to dehydration, an empty wallet, and a financial headache that won’t go away until they do. Link to article on The Daily Signal |
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Overlaid on the larger exodus from California is an interesting trend - movements WITHIN a State. The graphic shows net population change in the top ten most active counties in America. The population gainers and losers are color coded based upon their voting for Republicans (red) or Democrats (blue). All the top ten losers were blue counties and 9/10 top gainers were red. LA County lost 693 thousand people. Combined with Orange Counties loss of 149k, that's almost a million people (842 thousand people). I also note that three of the five counties comprising New York City made the top ten list (Brooklyn/Kings County, Queens and the Bronx) with a combined loss of 776 thousand people. I like having the numbers but they are not needed to detect the huge population changes that have happened and are continuing. Link to article on Issues & Insights 
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This article from the NY Post describes some of the "whys" about the outflow of people and businesses from California, particularly into Texas. Texas may soon have more people than California — here’s why By Joel Kotkin Published Aug. 16, 2026, 5:09 p.m. PT by NY Post.com More than a half century ago California passed New York to become America’s most populous state. It was not only first in population, but an industrial, agricultural, and technology behemoth that also provided most of the nation’s entertainment. Today that primacy is threatened as never before, most powerfully by Texas, whose pro-business policies, low taxes and growing technical skill are propelling its economy. People are voting with their feet. By 2050, for example, Texas is now slated to pass California in population, driven both by both immigration and domestic migration. Its economy is growing far faster, and it is now the headquarters of many former Californian companies. This year, for the first time, Texas passed California and New York as a headquarters for the nation’s largest companies. Even the establishmentarian Economist recently proclaimed the Lone Star State is “America Inc.’s new centre of gravity.” What should concern us are the reasons for this shift. After all, people don’t move to Texas for better weather or scenery. Or for reasonable policies on issues like abortion. Nor is it that Texas has smarter people. Four of the nation’s leading engineering schools are located in California, including Stanford, Caltech, UCLA, and Berkeley — compared to one Texas school. Texas did not manufacture California’s decline. To paraphrase Shakespeare, the blame is “not in the stars but in ourselves”. Start with the mindset. For much of the past 100 years, California provided the nation’s dreamscape. LA differed from the East Coast intellectual establishment, which looked down on the rest of the country. Hollywood embraced America, with Westerns, war movies, detective dramas and tales of small-town life, epitomized by Frank Capra’s “It’s a Wonderful life.” The Austin, Texas skyline is seen on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Austin is one of the fastest growing cities in America. SCOTT MOORE/Shutterstock Today Hollywood is occupied by people who often seem to despise their own country. Radical politics creeped into programming, as epitomized by last year’s agitprop Oscar underperforming winner, “One Battle After Another,” which lionized undocumented immigration, the shooting of law enforcement, and revolutionary violence. Having turned away from the country that nurtured it, Hollywood has been losing audience for years, with the exception of occasional blockbusters. The elite stars may still be well-paid and overcovered, but nearly 42,000 entertainment jobs left town in 2024 and 2025. Meanwhile, other places — Atlanta, Nashville, even New Jersey — have been expanding their entertainment sectors and building new studios, while Paramount is considering a move out of state. Taylor Sheridan, the creator of Yellowstone and Landman, is building a massive new studio in Fort Worth, Texas. Sheridan’s work, widely ignored by our progressive Hollywood elite, focuses on American stories, warts and all, but without the condescension of the studio elites. In other industries, including high-tech, companies increasingly look to Texas. California’s high energy prices could limit the expansion of its AI industry, which requires enormous amounts of energy. With a wealth tax looming, the technology nabobs will also have to face California progressives, and their counterparts elsewhere, who increasingly oppose data centers and impose anti-competitive regulations on AI. Arguably the most serious flub concerns the space industry. By chasing out Elon Musk and Space X, a company started and still dependent on Californian expertise, we handed Texas the keys to arguably the most promising industry of the future. Musk’s departure has also meant that rocket production won’t be where it should be — San Pedro, the Inland Empire, the Sacramento delta — but in places like Brownsville and Bastrop. Musk also now plans for a new chip factory outside Houston that, if completed, would be the world’s biggest building. Or go to the Starlink HQ in Bastrop, a small town 30 miles from Austin airport, and marvel at the gleaming headquarters, now expected to expand, looming over the Texas prairie. All I could think when seeing this amazing structure was that it should have been in Long Beach. Since 2019 the state’s share of high-tech jobs has dropped from 19 to 16 percent. California still retains unmatched expertise in high-tech industries, but current preeminence is not permanent: New York and Massachusetts used to be big players, too. To be sure, AI firms are developing an emerging epicenter in San Francisco, but that is highly unlikely to create net new tech jobs. Instead, the latest boom largely produces rewards for the investor class, a handful of entrepreneurs, and well-compensated “genius” programmers . But there is little opportunity for middle- and working-class Californians in places like San Bernardino, Oakland, or south LA. For them, the only win is that massive capital gains fortunes can support an ever-growing welfare state — at least until the AI bubble bursts and more billionaires head out. To thrive once again, California needs to refocus not just on elite industries and research, but also on nurturing blue collar and business service jobs for everyone else. Right now, we don’t do that anymore. Texas, with its crappy weather, unspectacular scenery, and sometimes coarse culture, does. |