[ARCHIVED THREAD] - What are the odds one could get the MG registry open again? I'm taking bets. (Page 1 of 10)
Posted: 5/10/2023 9:42:51 AM EDT
|
16 May 2023 I just got the fastest disapproval I've ever seen.  ETA: Some folks haven't realized that this isn't actually a bet- win or lose, if you are in support, you get to come to the BBQ. You get the same benefit whether we win or lose. I submitted a Form 1 for a MG today as an individual. I'm currently accepting bets on whether I will manage to get the registry open through what I suspect with good reason will be follow-on legal action. You're betting against a seat in a BBQ at my ranch following final resolution. We will say your seat, for simplicity sake, is worth ten dollars. What odds will you give me? Anyone 100,000 to 1? (That's a million dollar bet, for those mathematically challenged.  )10,000 to 1? Resolution to be determined by one of the following: The registry is opened, or A court finds against me and the appeal is denied, or it has been appealed and lost, and no legal remedies remain. Who will put their money where their mouth is? And let's be real. If I lose, I'll feed you. If I win, I'll feed you while you deliver your cash.   Top 10% of commitments: Anonymous $10000 mnew007 $1001 TxTacticalArms $1000 Kuraki $1000 fish223 $1000 Total list of BBQ attendees: Darkgray $100 LineofDeparture $50 Wizzy $200 in (5.56 for the new M16A1 blast off at the party) mustangduckk $200 Kuraki $1000 FriskyDillo $50 FritzTKatt $20 fish223 $1000 rtlm $100 haveTwo $100 Giltweasel $100 Ranxerox911 $50 1BMF (One PSA/H&R Arms M16 registered as a MG) Apple3_14159 $870 (payable in beer and ammo) mbg0001 $60 DmacRTCo $25 1Tribe $100 bkpkr $100 TxTacticalArms $1000 cyclone (5 pmags) Bophades $100 NY12ga $50 TribunusSanGeorgii $50 Whiteryno $200 lokt $250 GrantS $100 pn9ne $100 xmission $250 Clovis_Chitwood $50 Bellows1 $50 Klay $20 Tortilla-flats $1000 JustinU235 $1000 FJB247 $100 CouncilofDave $250 Mcgiggles $100 d16man $50 wile326 $100 dtux $100 Your1Savior $100 Wizzy $200 (in May 2023 5.56~ about 500 rounds). Cypselus $200 steviesterno16 $1000 4FishLimit $250 Mike327 $400 (plus $1000 more on successful resolution) BLKVooDoo $500 home_alone1 $1000 mnew007 $1001 tReznr $1000 Brawndo $100 trio $100 JimPope $200 DistanceX $100 futurerancher $100 FF208 $50 Miles_Urbanus $100 aplomado $100 Striker (brought to you by high_order1) $50 CleverNickname $200 Dawgfan28 $20 BourbonBeast $200 amaixner $200 UsernameUnknown $100 Genin $20 Notcalifornialegal $100 |
|
The background to keep things kinda together https://www.ar15.com/forums/Armory/Who-wants-to-make-a-bet-with-me-re-new-MG-sales-/22-540989/?page=1 |
|
Quoted: I submitted a Form 1 for a MG today as an individual. I'm currently accepting bets on whether I will manage to get the registry open through what I suspect with good reason will be follow-on legal action. You're betting against a seat in a BBQ at my ranch following final resolution. We will say your seat, for simplicity sake, is worth ten dollars. What odds will you give me? Anyone 100,000 to 1? (That's a million dollar bet, for those mathematically challenged. )10,000 to 1? Resolution to be determined by one of the following: The registry is opened, or A court finds against me and the appeal is denied, or it has been appealed and lost, and no legal remedies remain. Who will put their money where their mouth is? And let's be real. If I lose, I'll feed you. If I win, I'll feed you while you deliver your cash. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/72384/Form_1_Submitted-2811829.jpg I'll take the bet at any of those odds and be the happiest person here if I lose. $100 |
|
I love a good bet, but I'm going to have to call shenanigans to avoid losing bigly. You're 100% right legally, and if anyone can pull it off it's you. The only unknown is what kind of illegal/unconstitutional mental gymnastics will be applied to make your case go away, and I can't bet on schizophrenic application of "law." So I'll simply say: Good luck Sir, I'm rooting for you and I hope you can pull it off. |
|
The project reminds me of guys I would see who are positive they could beat a three card monte hustle even knowing the game was rigged. It went how you would expect. OP has way more faith in the courts than seems reasonable but best of luck on the attempt. No I'm not interested in betting anything because I don't enjoy betting against my own interest even if I'm certain thats how its going to go. |
|
Can you... maybe... @Ben I ask this alot of you because I'm slightly retarded and do not have the mental acumen that I wish I did.... but could you maybe post a how to to explain what you're doing and maybe we can turn it into a class action suit? I don't know if that would be anymore beneficial or not... but just a thought. Keep doing God's work. You're a national treasure. Also, I'm not a degenerate gambler, but put me down for 50 bucks. Wait... does 50 bucks put me down for 500k? Because fuck that if so... I've got to many kids and not enough capital for that. |
|
Quoted: Those odds are way off by several orders of magnitude. It is far more likely to happen than what you have offered.  I agree, I would put the odds at closer to 200 to 1. To clear up my earlier post, I'll throw a c note to support this if/when @ben gets to the point of needing legal funding. |
|
IMHO, the 1986 MG ban is the first thing that should be attacked in the NFA. Put four identical MG's on the table. One transferrable pre-May, three post. Have the "expert" acknowledge that they are functionally identical. Have him explain exactly how it is that one of those is "Dangerous and Unusual" and the others are not. It's also a law that is VERY far away from 1791 and makes the least amount of sense. |
|
There is a 0.0% chance of the registry being opened back up. Even IF you got a favorable court ruling, before you even walked out of the courtroom congress would have a bill passed and ready to sign banning MGs again. As wrong as it is, we will never have MGs in civilian hands again aside from what's on the registry. |
|
I’m assuming your legal argument would be “ under bruen “shall not be infringed”, but you can’t argue that until they deny you(or approve which case ILL complain that equal protections was violated and i DIDNT get my MG). Then once you get the denial you appeal up to SC which will hopefully smack down the 84 registry. I wish you the best of luck but sadly I think legal for purchase by anybody class3 ain’t happening in my life time. Now sure I could huy one from a local drug dealer , but legally? No. Iirc there were a couple dozen stripped lowers that were trust owned and a new examiner and they got stamps approved, then 2 weeks later disapproved. Was like 2011. |
|
Quoted: The registry is still open. You just have to pay to play. SOTs are still able to register MGs and there's been a handfull of personally owned post 86 machine guns for people in the government also. |
|
Quoted: that the fact that this forum is not lining up to support this COA is fucking baffling. Defeatist bitches. Do it Ben. Fuck these weak sisters. Attached File |
|
Quoted: There is a 0.0% chance of the registry being opened back up. Even IF you got a favorable court ruling, before you even walked out of the courtroom congress would have a bill passed and ready to sign banning MGs again. As wrong as it is, we will never have MGs in civilian hands again aside from what's on the registry. Just like D.C's handgun ban will never be repealed? Or New Yorks draconian CCW system never being shot down? Fortune favors the bold dude. |
