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Link Posted: 7/8/2007 9:41:03 PM EDT
[Last Edit: omar] [#1]

Originally Posted By ar-jedi:
ETA:
ps to omar...
when you get a sec -- in your first post in this thread, could you update the link to Corporal_Chaos's original "Seeking Investment Guidance" thread to the following:
archive.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=133&t=514490
thanks.


I found that and I also found who wanted to sell AAPL at around $83
(USMC88-93) archive.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=133&t=535449(I'd been looking for that)  I hope he held off selling.

(Cpl_Chaos) archive.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=133&t=514490


Here's the story: I'm a 20 year old single soldier (E-3). I live in the barracks, and aside from food, toiletries, and cleaning supplies, I have no monthly expenses (no gas, insurance, phone, internet, etc.). My goal is to squirrel away as much of my paycheck as possible. I figure I can make it on about $200 a month, given my lack of bills. That will leave me with around $1500-$1800 (after deductions) a month to place into investments and savings. Of that I would like to put at least $1000 (and probably more likely $1200-$1500) towards stocks and/or mutual funds each month. The remainder of my disposable income I would like to put into a money market account for savings. My goal with the stocks and mutual funds would be to earn additional income, which would be redistributed into more investments and savings based on my future goals. My intention with the money market account is to establish an emergency fund of $3,000-$5,000, with anything over that amount being available for luxury purchases (guns, ammo, maybe a vehicle in a year or two). My target growth for stocks and/or mutual funds would be 8-10%. My target for a money market account would be 5%, but I'd take 4% if it meant going with a more reputable firm. Presently, I have $11,000 in cash with which to start.

That's my story, and here's my problem: I'm no financial wizkid. I know how to save money, but I don't really know how to make it grow. For example, are my goals realistic? How about if I invest x dollars in y stock that pays z dividend, how much do I make? Do I get dividends quarterly or annually? What do I need to look at to determine which stocks I should buy if I'm buying for dividends and not based on pure speculation? Which firm should I go with? I've been looking into Scottrade, would they be a good choice given my situation? For a money market account, which should I go with based on my goals? Are they easy to set up and maintain, and do they really allow easy access to the money? Can I effectively manage all of this via the internet?

These are just a few questions I have right now; I'm sure I'll think of more later. I appreciate any help offered.


Posted :: 11/5/2006 9:57:57 PM EDT



Link Posted: 7/20/2007 11:30:08 PM EDT
[#2]
Update, 20 Jul  2007:

I’m contemplating selling off all of LVLT into earnings (26 Jul).  I would  significantly reduce the speculative component of the portfolio and replace it with four stocks equally divided into $1200 segments.

I’m happy with HAL and I believe CCIX will grow, although I bought it at the wrong time.

Here’s what I’m considering:

UTX- Has good domestic and overseas exposure, machinery play

AHM- Owned this before and it’s in a sector that is getting pounded – home mortgage.
I’m prepared to lose it all, but AHM will be my speculative play.  

If and when it rebounds, it should move strongly.  This sector is a train wreck, but AHM is so cheap now, the downside risk is minimal.

ACM – This is an infrastructure play in a very strong performing sector.  I own a stake in this since $22 outside the 10K portfolio.

CBI- This is an infrastructure play based in Europe.

I’ll add more if I decide to do this

Jim

Current 10K numbers as of 20 July:

Cash: $55.98  
Overall Value: $11,208.98

LVLT holdings at Friday close: $4,656.00  
Link Posted: 7/27/2007 7:11:45 PM EDT
[#3]
UPDATE:

SOLD 40 shares of HAL @37.03 on 26 July for a 26% gain.

I really wanted to reduce my LVLT, but I was too late to pull the trigger before the correction came.  I figured August was the month, but it hit earlier than I forecast.

This can be a time of panic for an investor.  I'm not concerned, as it is a normal market function.  I was close to 15% unrealized gain when the correction came.

Monday options:

Buy 300 more shares of LVLT - why?  To lower my overall cost.  If I buy more shares, it's for a trade, not long term hold.
Buy 20 shares of UTX
Buy 35 share of CBI
Buy 55-60 shares of ACM (I have a position in this in another portfolio)
Also looking at AKAM, JEC, TXN;  EMC and NYX (I have a position in both of these in another portfolio)

All mortgage and builders are presently toxic and off the table for the forseeable future.

Last option: do nothing.

$1,527.15  Cash

$10,245.75 10 portfolio value

Jim

Link Posted: 7/31/2007 10:10:17 PM EDT
[Last Edit: ar-jedi] [#4]
data for the 4 fund portfolio, YTD period ending 31 july 2007:  






summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $10,663.72, or up about 6.42% YTD inclusive of all trading costs.

ps:
the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $10,420.17, or up about 4.20% YTD.

ar-jedi
Link Posted: 8/10/2007 11:22:30 PM EDT
[Last Edit: omar] [#5]
UPDATE:

BOUGHT 10 shares of CCIX @ 16 on 10 August

CCIX has really been crushed in the last few weeks of trading and is the main reason I’m in negative territory at present.   CCIX short interest skyrocketed in July and it got hammered along with BGC, it’s main competitor when BGC announced earnings.  Due to low volume, I suspect CCIX is being manipulated and that there's no underlying problems with the stock that I'm aware of.  

I’m not sweating it.

I was on the road when a lot of the CCIX drop was happening, but even so, I couldn’t call a bottom and CCIX is a very long term hold.  All things considered, I probably would have not sold it anyway.  In fact, if it goes lower, I may pick more shares up.

I also bought more ACM and EMC outside the 10K portfolio.  EMC is a trade and I plan to sell it when EMC spins off the VMware IPO on 14 August.

10K Holdings:

60/HAL Long
110/CCIX Long
800/LVLT Long, may trade some if it runs above $7
$1357.15 Cash

$9752.45 portfolio value

Jim
Link Posted: 8/22/2007 8:26:20 PM EDT
[#6]
UPDATE:

BOUGHT 40 shares of CCIX @ 17.99 on 22 August
BOUGHT 100 shares of LVLT @ 5.06 on 22 August

CCIX continued to be crushed through August.  The worst part was I had just sold my old house and was moving into a new one, which was hugely stressful for me, but also very profitable.  

I only had my Blackberry, since I disconnected all my other comms and I see CCIX is under $10 and now I’m wondering WTF is going on.  I get up and running by Friday and start to research.  I see that the recently announced quarter was below expectations and the DOW is very negative, a double whammy in a very sucky week.  

At this juncture, I consider it pointless to sell since CCIX is way oversold, so I take a wait and see, figuring I’ll add to the position and average down, since this is a long term hold and not a trading stock for me.  I decide to add to CCIX after I digest the two items below:

- 21 August a co-chairman of Coleman Cable bought 66,300 shares of common stock.  Insider buying is usually a good sign
- 16 August a hedge fund took a 2,000,000 share position almost at the very bottom of CCIXs drop, which I also found interesting.  

I probably should’ve bought 100 shares, but I decided to add 100 shares to LVLT @ 5.03, giving me my cheapest shares to date.


10K Holdings:

60/HAL Long
150/CCIX Long
900/LVLT Long, will likely trade some if it runs above $7
$324.15 Cash

$ 8,742.15  portfolio value  (-12.7%).  

These are probably my last trades for the year and I still believe I’ll be at my target 15% at the end of the year.

LVLT is a big chunk of speculation and I don’t know when it will hit, but I’m willing to wait it out  through early 2008.  Nothing is levered to sub prime, so I’ve minimized exposure as best I could.

I also bought back CHDX at $17.99 for a trade into November outside of the 10k portfolio.

Jim

Link Posted: 8/30/2007 11:53:58 PM EDT
[#7]
Link Posted: 8/31/2007 12:39:59 AM EDT
[#8]

Originally Posted By FALARAK:
Super interested to see arjedi's mix right now - are we going to get a EOM report?


is a 24 hour wait until the EOM ok with you?  

ar-jedi
Link Posted: 9/3/2007 6:24:56 PM EDT
[#9]

data for the 4 fund portfolio, YTD period ending 03 september 2007:  






summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $10,649.62, or up about 6.28% YTD inclusive of all trading costs.

ps:
the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $10,515.33, or up about 5.15% YTD.

ar-jedi

Link Posted: 9/3/2007 8:50:40 PM EDT
[#10]
Link Posted: 9/3/2007 9:04:16 PM EDT
[#11]

Originally Posted By FALARAK:
Outstanding.... given the turmoil.  Cant wait till next month.  I am betting on a big loss.


your bet = sitting on cash or actively short?

ar-jedi

Link Posted: 9/3/2007 10:08:59 PM EDT
[Last Edit: FALARAK] [#12]
Link Posted: 9/3/2007 10:17:23 PM EDT
[#13]
Link Posted: 9/4/2007 5:34:25 PM EDT
[#14]

Originally Posted By FALARAK:

I know fear should be controlled in personal investments... but I am fearful about the next two months, and cash just seems like it gives me more options right now.  I plan to re-evaluate in 60 days.... maybe sooner if there is movement.  


If the liquidity crunch turns out to be really bad, you might be the one having the last laugh if you're long in cash right now.  I'm no CFA and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night but if big names like JPM Chase are going to the discount window to borrow cash, that has me worried across a whole bunch of sectors.  
Link Posted: 9/29/2007 2:30:46 AM EDT
[Last Edit: ar-jedi] [#15]

data for the 4 fund portfolio, YTD period ending 29 september 2007:  






summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $ 11,032.45, or up about 10.10% YTD inclusive of all trading costs.

ps:
the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $10,875.59, or up about 8.76% YTD.



ar-jedi

ETA:
there was a recent distribution for IJJ (iShares S&P MidCap 400 Value Index ETF); this is already reflected in the data shown above.  
Link Posted: 10/7/2007 10:29:32 PM EDT
[#16]

FBLAX distributed both capital gains and a dividend on 05 october 2007.  
the attached info reflects this adjustment.


data for the 4 fund portfolio, YTD period ending 07 october 2007:  



summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $11,289.24, or up about 12.67% YTD inclusive of all trading costs.

ps:
the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $11,082.90, or up about 10.83% YTD.

ar-jedi

Link Posted: 10/8/2007 3:24:56 PM EDT
[Last Edit: iNuhBaDNayburhood] [#17]
Link Posted: 10/8/2007 8:39:08 PM EDT
[Last Edit: ar-jedi] [#18]

Originally Posted By iNuhBaDNayburhood:
For $10,000, I'm a big fan of the DJ-5 Strategy (AKA: Dogs of the Dow strategy/scheme)...  Has worked pretty well too!
Basically, if you've got $10,000 sitting around that you can spare, check up on the Dow Jones Industrial listings, and find the top-10 performing stocks (lists can be found on the internet just about anywhere).
Then pick 5 of the top-10 performers (or just pick the top-5), and buy up $2000 of each of those 5 stocks!


you didn't explain this correctly, and that makes me wonder.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogs_of_the_dow


Originally Posted By iNuhBaDNayburhood:
The dividends & splits of each stock will compound and be reinvested into more shares, and then you'll get to watch your investment return about 20% per year on average.


no way.

for the past 7 years,


ar-jedi
Link Posted: 10/9/2007 9:26:20 AM EDT
[Last Edit: iNuhBaDNayburhood] [#19]
Link Posted: 10/9/2007 9:51:09 AM EDT
[Last Edit: USMC88-93] [#20]

Originally Posted By omar:
I found that and I also found who wanted to sell AAPL at around $83
(USMC88-93) archive.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=133&t=535449(I'd been looking for that)  I hope he held off selling.

No I kept AAPL it and as of today 10/9/2007 I am up 145%, now I just need to figure out where to set up a stop loss sell if it starts back down too far again.

My other choices on the other hand are not so hot.
Link Posted: 10/16/2007 7:21:12 PM EDT
[#21]

Originally Posted By iNuhBaDNayburhood:
Personally, I **PREFER** investing in companies that are in financial jeopardy, or have issues with assets, etc.  It's INFINITELY riskier, but much better return on your investment if you do your research.


this is called "Value Investing".    ps: i strongly disagree with your word "INFINITELY".  


Originally Posted By iNuhBaDNayburhood:
Another favorite of mine is newly emerging technologies & trends that are on the upswing (and you can sometimes catch IPO shares, securities, etc.)...


this is called "Growth Investing".

you have just covered the two major but diametrically opposed schools of thought on modern investing techniques.

ar-jedi

Link Posted: 10/30/2007 10:10:44 AM EDT
[#22]
How the 10k portfolio doing?

It seems LVLT took a hit.
Link Posted: 10/30/2007 11:24:20 AM EDT
[#23]
Link Posted: 10/31/2007 12:56:23 AM EDT
[#24]

Originally Posted By FALARAK:

Originally Posted By migradog:
It seems LVLT took a hit.





Level 3 plunged 17% after the telco slashed its cash flow guidance for the next two years.
The Broomfield, Colo., company said growth in customers' use of its services has failed to keep pace with network upgrade expenses


Thanks for the informative answer.
Link Posted: 10/31/2007 8:52:50 AM EDT
[#25]
Link Posted: 10/31/2007 7:32:22 PM EDT
[Last Edit: ar-jedi] [#26]
data for the 4 fund portfolio, YTD period ending 31 october 2007:  






summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $11,331.60, or up about 13.09% YTD inclusive of all trading costs.

ps:
the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $11,093.10, or up about 10.93% YTD.

ar-jedi

ETA
ps:
you may be wondering why the "gain/loss since purchase" and "total return YTD" columns don't agree above, especially since the 4 fund portfolio was initiated on 1 january 2007.  the numbers actually do agree, just not yet.  morningstar updates the last column at about 1am the following day.  if you scroll back to prior status posts, you'll see that when i've posted on weekends (or very very late in the evening) the last column does agree with the former.  the offset today just jumps out as unusually large due to the market's reaction to the fed's 25bp rate cut.
Link Posted: 12/1/2007 8:15:05 AM EDT
[#27]

data for the 4 fund portfolio, YTD period ending 01 december 2007:  






summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $10,832.63, or up about 8.11% YTD inclusive of all trading costs.

ps:
the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $10,705.66, or up about 7.06% YTD.

ar-jedi

Link Posted: 12/31/2007 8:05:23 PM EDT
[#28]
Closing 2007 info for the 10K2007:



This is an unrealized loss of 32.48%.  I am still going to do limited update of this portfolio, even though I originally stated I would end it at the close of 2007.  I am doing so since I was still buying into June, so I'll do some updates.  I still believe CCIX will do well in the long run, but in the short term, the price of copper dropped, and CCIX is levered to copper prices due to inventory.  Insiders still continue to buy and so will I, just not in the 2007 10K portfolio.  

LVLT is another matter.  I'm going to give it two more quarters and call it a day if it doesn't perform.  In retrospect, I put too much of LVLT into this and should have stayed with 400 shares as originally intended.  It is after all, a speculative stock.

I also tracked James Cramers 9 stock picks for 2007 3 each growth, value and speculative).  Equal investment in those nine stocks at the closing price of the day of recommendation would result in a 17.86% annual gain at todays close, excluding any dividends.

Outside of the 10K I was buying and selling 100 share blocks of Halliburton (HAL) and AECOM (ACM) and bigger blocks of CCIX I picked up when it hit a new low.  That worked pretty well, so I'm going to do another portfolio using that strategy.

The 10K portfolio for 2008:

$10000 in cash, nothing bought for the folder yet.
$10 transaction fees

The strategy:  Use stocks and ETFs that work opposite of one another, so that no matter what direction the market is moving, something is going up.

The picks:  

BTE, a Canadian oil trust - dividend play
AECOM (ACM) an infrastructure play
HOKU Scientific (HOKU) a speculative solar power play.  I'm buying 100 shares and possibly 100 more, but that's it.  I already have a position on this outside the 10K, as well as in ACM
UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS)
UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD)

Other posssible additions:
PPL, ADM, MON, FSLR or a homebuilder if housing turns around.

The core position of this portfolio is ACM.  The plan is to have no less than 100 shares and no more than 400 shares and the intent is to trade a 100 share block when I'm up 3-4 points.  I plan on buying and selling it all year, but always maintaining a core position of at least 100 shares.

When I sell ACM, I'll be looking to buy BTE.  When the DOW and S&P are approaching record highs or new 50 day highs, I'll be looking to buy SDS or DXD (one or the other, not both).  DXD and SDS are ETFs which track exactly opposite to the S&P and the DOW.

Jim





Link Posted: 1/1/2008 12:11:52 PM EDT
[#29]

data for the 4 fund portfolio, YTD period ending 31 december 2007:  






summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $10,713.39, or up about 6.92% YTD inclusive of all trading costs.

ps:
the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $10,616.14, or up about 6.16% YTD.




---

retrospective on each holding...

international stocks continued to outperform (aided by a declining dollar), and so Dodge & Cox International fund (DODFX) "won" in terms of total return inside the portfolio.  

Fidelity's Balanced fund (FBALX) turned in an impressive year -- it's risk-adjusted return is excellent.  kudos to both Fidelity's stock picking and fixed income departments for making a "ballast" fund perform so well.

on the other hand, iShares S&P Midcap 400 Value ETF (IJJ) suffered from a vastly tightened credit environment -- smaller companies are the hardest hit when lenders reign in loans.  since this ETF is geared toward the value end of the spectrum (read: troubled, low P/E stocks), it was doubly hurt as any available loan money was thrown at growth stocks.  for comparison, contrast the results of iShares S&P Midcap 400 Growth ETF (IJK) -- 12.73% YTD.

Third Avenue Value fund (TAVFX) had a very modest year at 5.76% return, and is flush with cash (over 20% currently).

---

going forward...

no changes to the portfolio for 1H 2008.  

ar-jedi




Link Posted: 1/31/2008 8:39:22 PM EDT
[#30]

data for the 4 fund portfolio,  1 Year + YTD (since portfolio inception) period ending 31 january 2008:  






summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $10,080.61, or up about 0.60% since portfolio inception inclusive of all trading costs.

ps:
the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $10,069.67, or up about 0.70% since portfolio inception.

ar-jedi


Link Posted: 1/31/2008 10:11:54 PM EDT
[#31]
Link Posted: 2/3/2008 10:21:19 AM EDT
[#32]
10K2008 - 420 shares of ACM $10,652.92 - I will peel some of this off into a short fund at some point, probably after the DOW moves another 600-700 points or when SDS or DXD approach a 52 week low.  There's probably at least one or more interest rate cuts still to follow.  We are probably close to a bottom in housing, but there's still a lot of supply on the market.  

I was itching to buy KB Homes when it was in the $18s (now at $28 in just nine trading days), but I may still have another chance to buy it lower before it starts a big run.  It would also give me two construction stocks, so I need to consider another sector for counter balance, which is where a utility like PPL may work, instead.

I am not including a speculative stock this year, so HOKU is out.

10K2007 - $7,149.75 - CCIX is starting to move upward and there was a lot of insider buying when it was near the bottom.  LVLT will be sold if it gets into the 5-6 range.

Jim
Link Posted: 2/9/2008 10:44:33 PM EDT
[#33]
Omar have you considered sell calls on the stocks with at least 100sh. You could have brought in extra income ie like with HAL selling calls deep out of the money.
Link Posted: 2/29/2008 1:14:15 PM EDT
[#34]
Very educational thread.  Thanks to the original poster, who would make a good financial analyst.
Link Posted: 3/1/2008 10:41:35 AM EDT
[#35]

data for the 4 fund portfolio,  1 Year + YTD (since portfolio inception) period ending 1 march 2008:  






summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $9,848.91, or down about 1.71% since portfolio inception inclusive of all trading costs.

ps:
the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $9,850.39, or down about 1.50% since portfolio inception.

ar-jedi



Link Posted: 3/5/2008 9:44:11 AM EDT
[#36]
ar-jedi -

Your $10k portfolio has pretty much mirrored mine, which is invested completely in Vanguard's Total Stock Market and was begun in Jan of 2007.  

I havn't kept records, but I was up to $11k at one point (probably Oct '07).

This may be of some use to those who ponder the merrits of active trading vs. passive index investing.
Link Posted: 3/7/2008 9:57:49 PM EDT
[Last Edit: omar] [#37]

Originally Posted By AKuzer:
Omar have you considered sell calls on the stocks with at least 100sh. You could have brought in extra income ie like with HAL selling calls deep out of the money.


AKuzer,

Sorry for the late reply.  I had a family emergency and have been out of communication for the last few weeks.

I've never bought options, just watched them for unsual activity in stocks I've owned.  I am not confident enough to purchase options at this time, but will probably test the waters and purchase options as cheap insurance against downside on a stock.

I will be inheriting a sizable portion of PPL stock, so I won't be buying that as planned.

Jim

Link Posted: 4/1/2008 8:19:42 PM EDT
[#38]

data for the 4 fund portfolio,  1 Year + YTD (since portfolio inception) period ending 1 april 2008:  






summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $ 9,996.23, or down about 0.24% since portfolio inception inclusive of all trading costs.

ps:
the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $10,073.15, or up about 0.73% since portfolio inception.

ar-jedi




Link Posted: 5/2/2008 12:48:57 AM EDT
[#39]

data for the 4 fund portfolio,  1 Year + YTD (since portfolio inception) period ending 1 may 2008:  






summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $10,415.69, or up about 3.95% since portfolio inception inclusive of all trading costs.

ps:
the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $10,350.24, or up about 3.50% since portfolio inception.

ar-jedi




Link Posted: 5/2/2008 10:39:18 PM EDT
[Last Edit: omar] [#40]
UPDATE:

10K2008 - 420 shares of ACM $12,156.49 up 14.11%.  

ACM announces earnings on 8 May and I expect it will continue to run up to earnings, which will probably be blow out.  

My dilemma will be whether I should take some off the table or let it run.  ACM continues to acquire companies that immediately contribute to the bottom line.  

At some point, a larger company will attempt to acquire ACM.  So I think buy and hold will work just fine if I choose to leave it alone.  

On the other hand, there will be another pullback when almost every stock will go red including ACM, which currently is trading in a 25-30 range and I’ll probably have an opportunity to buy back at a cheaper price.

BTE really ran up and I won't buy any at the current price.

10K2007 - 7792.80 down (22.08%)
 -- 60 shares HAL up 52.60%
 -- 900 shares LVLT down (43.94%)
 -- 150 shares CCIX down (31.10%)
Link Posted: 5/8/2008 11:20:34 PM EDT
[Last Edit: omar] [#41]
10K2008 UPDATE:

05/08/08   11:23 AM EDT Sell 328 ACM Executed @ $29.6

05/08/08   3:37 PM EDT  Buy 100 KBH Executed @ $23.9  

Holdings:

92 shares of ACM
100 shares of KBH
Cash: $7315.49

Start: $10,652.92
Portfolio value as of 05/08/08: 12456.49 up 16.9%

If ACM goes higher, I'll sell the rest and wait for a pullback and buy back in. ACMs earning were very good, but I expect it will slowly drift lower in concert with the market in general, due to energy and inflation concerns.

In the meantime, KBH (KB Homes) is a stock I've watched for a long time and I decided to do a small buy.  

If KBH drops lower $19-20, I'll buy 100-200 more shares.  KBH bounces off $19 probably due to the dividend/yield and is a really good entry point.  If it climbs to $28 in the near term, I'll reevaluate/sell as its trading in a band.  

The housing market probably won't turn until next year, but just in case, I'm putting a toe in the water.

I'm still interested in the Canadian and U.S. energy trusts, but we are probably turning the corner on oil and I think we may see a pullback.  In any event, my prime pick BTE has run up too much to chance buying it now, so PGH, PVX, PWE, AAV, PBT and HTE are all contenders.

10K2007UPDATE: $8,057.10 down (19.42%)
-- 60 shares HAL up 61.98%
-- 900 shares LVLT down (43.41%)
-- 150 shares CCIX down (28.51%)
Link Posted: 5/16/2008 10:13:12 PM EDT
[#42]
10K2008 UPDATE:

Fri May 16 15:45:35 2008 Buy 150 PGH Executed @ $20.59
Holdings:

92 shares of ACM
100 shares of KBH
150 shares PGH
Cash: $4213.00 (includes $12.99 trade fee)

Start: $10,652.92

Portfolio value as of 05/16/08: 12,641.40 for a 18.6% unrealized gain

ACM appears to be going higher and I may sell the rest next week.

I missed an opportunity to sell KBH (KB Homes) this morning and add another 2%

I can’t figure out when oil will drop, but I’m going to hold on to PGH, a Canadian oil trust and take advantage of the 13% yield.  If it starts running like its competitor BTE is, I’ll reevaluate.

10K2007UPDATE 8,353.80 for a (16.4%) unrealized loss

-- 60 shares HAL up 66.94%
-- 900 shares LVLT down (37.81%)
-- 150 shares CCIX down (31.43%)
Link Posted: 5/19/2008 8:19:26 PM EDT
[#43]
10K2008 UPDATE:

Monday, May 19, 2008

05/19/08   2:50 PM EDT      Sell 92 ACM Executed @ $31.4 / 2888.78
05/19/08   2:14 PM EDT      Buy 10 FSLR Executed @ $298.8/2988.00
Fees: (25.98)

Holdings
100 shares KBH
150 shares PGH
10 shares FSLR
Cash: 4087.80

FSLR is a short term trade

I decided to sell ACM on good news

I'll buy back some ACM on a pullback.  Also, it might be time to short the DOW with DXD or the S&P with UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) Exchange Traded funds.

Portfolio Start: $10,652.92

Portfolio value as 05/19/08: 12,621.8
Link Posted: 5/27/2008 11:35:20 AM EDT
[Last Edit: mags] [#44]
I will add to Omars post having passed my 63/65 financial exams but no pro in any way.. IMHO anyone with less than 50k should be in Mutual funds not individual stocks. Its all about risk/reward with overconfidence as the investors enemy............Any S&P500/FTSE Global x_US would be a great split IMO with out the Small cap value premium= 50%domesic SP500/50%international equites still puts 100% in equites with much less risk.Good Luck!
Link Posted: 6/1/2008 11:20:19 PM EDT
[#45]

data for the 4 fund portfolio,  1 Year + YTD (since portfolio inception) period ending 1 june 2008:  






summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $10,487.74, or up about 4.67% since portfolio inception inclusive of all trading costs.

ps:
the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $10,374.72, or up about 3.75% since portfolio inception.

ar-jedi





Link Posted: 7/31/2008 1:11:05 PM EDT
[#46]

Originally Posted By mags:
............Any S&P500/FTSE Global x_US would be a great split IMO with out the Small cap value premium= 50%domesic SP500/50%international equites still puts 100% in equites with much less risk.Good Luck!


I currently have almost exact split in my 401K (49%/50% + 1% treasuries).

My 10K 2008 is out performing that and my 10K 2007 is under performing.

Jim
Link Posted: 7/31/2008 4:47:31 PM EDT
[#47]
Stock Purchases:

07/31/08   11:33 AM EDT      Buy 50 PGH Executed @ $17.45  Day buy
order for 50 PGH at a limit price of $17.5 was executed at $17.45.

07/31/08   11:29 AM EDT      Buy 100 ACM Executed @ $28.6  Day buy
order for 100 ACM at a limit price of $28.6 was executed at $28.6.

PGH $885.49 (Includes fee)
ACM $2872.99(Includes fee)

Total: $3758.48

Dividends

07/24/08   Dividend        KB HOME CASH DIV ON 100 SHS REC 07/10/08
PAY ...   $25.00

07/15/08   Dividend        ***PENGROWTH
ENERGY TRUST UNIT NEW CASH DIV O...   $33.63

06/16/08   Dividend        ***PENGROWTH ENERGY TRUST UNIT NEW DIST ON
15...   $32.95

Dividend Total:  $91.58

10K2008 Portfolio Value at close 31 Jul 2008: $11,339.20
Holdings
100 shares ACM
100 shares KBH
200 shares PGH
10 shares FSLR
Cash: 4087.80
Cash: $420.90

I bought ACM back and will reevaluate in the mid-thirties.

While ACM and KBH are both construction companies, one is a home
builder and the other is major infrastructure, so I don't consider
them two of a kind.  

I really wanted to add a wind stock (see below) but they've run up too
much in recent weeks.  So in the meantime, I bought ACM back.
PGH remains a long term hold. I missed the ex-dividend date, so I
probably won't see distribution in August on the 50 shares just
purchased, only the 150 shares owned before 28 July 2 008.

KBH is a long term hold and is my start of a 1000 share position.  I
figure if I can buy it when its hated, I will ride back up to the
$50s, where it was before the building slump.  I don't expect it to do
much before the builders turn, which is probably next spring, so I'm
adding to my position outside this portfolio whenever it takes hits
with the rest of the housing construction sector.  I bought more at
$17 but not for this project.  

KBH also pays a good dividend, which does not appear to be  at risk.
If I'm correct, that protects it from more downside around $16.  If
they decide to lower it due to losses, that's OK.

I'm also interested in Centex (CTX).

FSLR turned out to be not so much a short term trade.  I'm looking to
unload it at around $350.

I'd like to add a windpower stock, but they've been running up - Otter
Tail Corp (OTTR) and Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) are two I'm
interested in. Also of interest is AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) and
American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC)

TRN is not a pure wind play, but it manufactures wind towers and
associated equipment.  It's been on a tear lately.  If I can catch it
on a pull back, I'll probably put it in this portfolio.  
If you drive down  I-10 and I-20 in Texas, you'll see hundreds of windmills.  These companies are a part of the Texas wind power projects, which are rejuvenating and
transforming parts of rural Texas.

Jim
Link Posted: 8/2/2008 1:14:25 PM EDT
[#48]

data for the 4 fund portfolio,  1 Year + YTD (since portfolio inception) period ending 2 august 2008:  






summary: the 4 fund portfolio is at $9,423.27, or down about -5.96% since portfolio inception inclusive of all trading costs.

ps:
the FFNOX reference portfolio is at $9,486.56, or down about -5.13% since portfolio inception.

ar-jedi





Link Posted: 8/18/2008 8:30:38 AM EDT
[Last Edit: omar] [#49]
Dividend Paid

Payment Date: 08/15/2008

Security: ***PENGROWTH ENERGY TRUST (PGH)
Amount Credited: $31.66

Holdings
100 shares ACM
100 shares KBH
200 shares PGH
10 shares FSLR

420.90
+31.66=

Cash: $452.56
10K2008 Portfolio Value at close 15 Aug 2008: 11474.76

The dividend is only for 150 shares as I missed the ex-div date.  Next month it will be around $41.00.

Jim
Link Posted: 9/20/2008 9:33:21 AM EDT
[#50]
Update:

Dividend Paid

Payment Date: 09/15/2008

Security: ***PENGROWTH ENERGY TRUST (PGH)
Amount Credited: $41.90

Holdings
100 shares ACM
100 shares KBH
200 shares PGH
10 shares FSLR

CASH $452.56
+41.90
= $494.46

10K2008 Portfolio Value at close 19 Sep 2008: $11,253.46


I placed a limit order at $25.30 for Monday.  If that triggers, I'll repurchase KBH on a pullback or maybe purchase Diana Shipping (DSX), a dry bulk shipper from China.  That business will pick back up if we've crossed the hump of this mortgage problem and lack of confidence in the markets.  Another option is to hold on and watch to see if FSLR pulls back and buy 10 more shares.

I'm also interested in OTTR, which makes windmill components.  It took a big hit on Friday and didn't recover with the market and I don't know why, so that's iffy until I can determine the reason.

I bought OTTR at $35.36 on 5 Aug when it took a deep cut after disappointing earnings and sold it on a bounce at $40.75.  At $30 something it's looking attractive, subject to knowing the reason for the recent decline in share price.  

As I look at the 10K stocks, KBH is my least favorite and probably wasn't the right pick for this portfolio, especially since I have two construction stocks.  Additionally, there is still a lot of new, unsold supply on the market.  Combined with more stringent mortgage requirements, the home builders may not come back as strong as they were due to a smaller pool of qualified buyers.

Monday may provide an opportunity to eject and buy something in another sector to increase diversification or dollar cost average on ACM, or FSLR buy buying more at a cheaper price than the original purchase.


Jim


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Tacked The 10K Portfolio (Page 2 of 4)
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