Posted: 11/3/2011 8:20:27 AM EDT
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These are the trends I've seen, which help explain where we are today and why:
1. The Tea Party movement influence. The direction of this movement could best be summarized as "just about anyone but Romney" (for pretty good reason). From Bachmann, to Perry, to Cain, the Tea Party crowd jumps around, looking for who represents their values best, but eventually swarming to whichever flavor of the month appears most electable at that time...which usually lasts until that candidate trips up, at which point the Tea Party movement jumps ship in search of the next flavor of the month that isn't Romney but appears electable. The biggest strength of the Tea Party? It doesn't have a clearly defined organization so the media is faced with more of a moving target when it wants to find someone to character assassinate. The Tea Party's biggest weakness? It has no clearly defined organization, resulting in a divided, unreliable political support base that is constantly shifting among the non-Romney candidates. This has forced Bachmann, Perry, and Cain to waste their efforts fighting amongst themselves in an effort to win over this "fluid" support foundation. 2. Romney and the GOP establishment. Romney saw the writing on the wall and played the part of the team player in the last Presidential Primaries. This scored him political brownie points in the GOP, but he didn't stop there. He then engaged in a whirlwind of fundraising activities for other Republican candidates in the 2010 elections, this earned Romney a lot more political brownie points, along with placing a lot of people in the position of "owing" favors to Romney in several States. The result? Romney has consistently had the support of the GOP establishment, along with its considerable, organized political machine. So while other candidates squable and grasp for an ever shifting support base, Romney has been a consistent contender with a firm support structure under him. 3. Polish and appearance: Life isn't fair, and politics is even more ruthless. In the world of modern, constant, near instantaneous communications, appearance matters. Consider the impact of the following images which I've collected off of Arfcom over the past few years: 
The "polish" of a candidate goes a long way towards winning over the public. Perry should have been better prepped for debates, and his lack of preparation and polish in that arena has hamstrung him. Cain should have known that the sexual harrassment allegations were going to surface. He should have had rock solid contingency plans in place for that unavoidable day. His lack of preparation for such a public fiasco has hamstrung him. Romney has his skeletons in the closet, too, but he's prepared for them so he doesn't come off looking like a deer in the headlights when Romneycare gets brought up. He's prepared for debates so that he doesn't look like a frustrated amateur there. Wherever he goes he gives an impression of polish and preparedness. We might consider the matter trite because public impression doesn't always give insight into a candidate's true character, but just yesterday I was watching a documentary on Benjamin Franklin who himself recognized that appearances and impressions mattered in his own time over two centuries ago. That public perception becomes realty. For example, Cain doesn't have to actually be guilty to be sunk. He just has to look guilty to the public and his political career is over. These things I've pointed out are why Romney, despite his several faults, has so cosistently remained a solid contender. Not because he is so much more deserving than any other candidate, not just because it's "his turn", but because he has been more astute as a politician, both in establishing his support base and in grooming himself for public perception. |
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You want a genuine uncorruptable tough SOB to be president.......Gary Johnson.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_E._Johnson |
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Quoted: . . . We might consider the matter trite because public impression doesn't always give insight into a candidate's true character, but just yesterday I was watching a documentary on Benjamin Franklin who himself recognized that appearances and impressions mattered in his own time over two centuries ago. That public perception becomes realty. For example, Cain doesn't have to actually be guilty to be sunk. He just has to look guilty to the public and his political career is over. These things I've pointed out are why Romney, despite his several faults, has so cosistently remained a solid contender. Not because he is so much more deserving than any other candidate, not just because it's "his turn", but because he has been more astute as a politician, both in establishing his support base and in grooming himself for public perception. Good post. "Image" is far more important in the General Election than in Primaries, at least historically. That's why Mondale, Dukakis, Dole, Gore, Kerry, McCain etc. won their Primaries yet lost the General Election). NONE of those primary-election winners had "the image" in the General Election. Youthfulness, vitality, looks, image carry general elections. Not necessarily Primaries though. Primaries are about strategy (politics) and getting your base out to vote (politicking). |
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. . . We might consider the matter trite because public impression doesn't always give insight into a candidate's true character, but just yesterday I was watching a documentary on Benjamin Franklin who himself recognized that appearances and impressions mattered in his own time over two centuries ago. That public perception becomes realty. For example, Cain doesn't have to actually be guilty to be sunk. He just has to look guilty to the public and his political career is over. These things I've pointed out are why Romney, despite his several faults, has so cosistently remained a solid contender. Not because he is so much more deserving than any other candidate, not just because it's "his turn", but because he has been more astute as a politician, both in establishing his support base and in grooming himself for public perception. Good post. "Image" is far more important in the General Election than in Primaries, at least historically. That's why Mondale, Dukakis, Dole, Gore, Kerry, McCain etc. won their Primaries yet lost the General Election). NONE of those primary-election winners had "the image" in the General Election. Youthfulness, vitality, looks, image carry general elections. Not necessarily Primaries though. Primaries are about strategy (politics) and getting your base out to vote (politicking). Good point, and it highlights the problem with the Tea Party. It isn't a unified, consistent voting base to work with. A strategy built around wooing the Tea Party has resulted in a political "flash in the pan" several times now, but so far no long term success. It is possible that the Tea Party will solidify behind a single candidate enough to make the difference at the polls at the Primaries, but so far we haven't seen that solid, unified support yet. |
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So does this mean we are stuck with Romney and a slate of RINO Senate/Congressional candidates to vote for in 2012? Romney? Possibly. As for Senate and Congressional candidates, the 2010 elections have shown that the Tea Party does have the capacity to make a difference at the state level. It's at the national level that the Tea Party struggles to maintain cohesiveness. |
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RINO Romney?  I guess they want a second term for Zero.  Depends on one's perspective. Romney's business background does put him in a better position to help put the country on a better track economically. Business owners would probably behave more confidently with Romney at the helm. That is a huge advantage over Obama in any elections, despite Romneycare and Romney's 2nd Amendment issues. Even with Romneycare, all Romney has to do is say that he'll give every state in the union an exemption from Obamacare and he makes Romneycare practically a moot point. I'm saying this from the perspective of the average American voter, not the perspective of qualifications Arfcommers would require. |
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You seemed to have made a good assessment of the situation. I just wish some of the other canidates were better politicians, lol. So do I. Had Perry practiced more for debates and reminded the pastor friend to shut up about "cult" remarks, he'd probably have been the sure thing in the Primaries. |
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RINO Romney? I guess they want a second term for Zero. Depends on one's perspective. Romney's business background does put him in a better position to help put the country on a better track economically. Business owners would probably behave more confidently with Romney at the helm. That is a huge advantage over Obama in any elections, despite Romneycare and Romney's 2nd Amendment issues. Even with Romneycare, all Romney has to do is say that he'll give every state in the union an exemption from Obamacare and he makes Romneycare practically a moot point. I'm saying this from the perspective of the average American voter, not the perspective of qualifications Arfcommers would require. Politicians say a LOT of things. That doesn't mean he'll carry through with his promises. His history is troubling and that leads me to think another candidate might be a better idea. Besides, Romney hasn't actually SAID that, right? Unfortunately I have to agree that everyone else seems to be at least partially self-destructing. That doesn't leave us with much to go on. |
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RINO Romney? I guess they want a second term for Zero. Depends on one's perspective. Romney's business background does put him in a better position to help put the country on a better track economically. Business owners would probably behave more confidently with Romney at the helm. That is a huge advantage over Obama in any elections, despite Romneycare and Romney's 2nd Amendment issues. Even with Romneycare, all Romney has to do is say that he'll give every state in the union an exemption from Obamacare and he makes Romneycare practically a moot point. I'm saying this from the perspective of the average American voter, not the perspective of qualifications Arfcommers would require. Politicians say a LOT of things. That doesn't mean he'll carry through with his promises. His history is troubling and that leads me to think another candidate might be a better idea. Besides, Romney hasn't actually SAID that, right? Unfortunately I have to agree that everyone else seems to be at least partially self-destructing. That doesn't leave us with much to go on. Actually, I believe that he and Perry both made comments to that effect: http://foxnewsinsider.com/2011/09/13/romney-perry-vow-they-would-overturn-obamacare-if-elected-but-would-they-have-the-power/ There are limits to how much they could do to limits Obamacare's impact, but if we gain control of the Senate, then a Republican President's influence could help sway the necessary legislative branch votes to actually overturn Obamacare. |
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My vote is going for Michele Bachmann. Bachmann would probably be best for the Country. Sadly, I don't think she has a prayer. As far as the Tea Party being hindered by the lack of cohesion, I don't think it will much matter in the General Election. Tea Partiers like myself will be voting for anyone but Obama. I also think the Tea Party's influence is being underestimated in the primaries. I suspect that Romney would be the clear leader if it weren't for the influence of the Tea Party. When I look at Cains numbers it's pretty obvious to me that the country is pretty leary of RINOs and is hungry for real change. Cain really shouldn't be doing as well as he is. Until recently, he has had little funding, little media attention and his organization is pretty small in comparison, yet he leads in a whole lot of polls. If you think about it, that really says something about what's going on. |
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My vote is going for Michele Bachmann. Bachmann would probably be best for the Country. Sadly, I don't think she has a prayer. As far as the Tea Party being hindered by the lack of cohesion, I don't think it will much matter in the General Election. Tea Partiers like myself will be voting for anyone but Obama. I also think the Tea Party's influence is being underestimated in the primaries. I suspect that Romney would be the clear leader if it weren't for the influence of the Tea Party. When I look at Cains numbers it's pretty obvious to me that the country is pretty leary of RINOs and is hungry for real change. Cain really shouldn't be doing as well as he is. Until recently, he has had little funding, little media attention and his organization is pretty small in comparison, yet he leads in a whole lot of polls. If you think about it, that really says something about what's going on. I don't disagree with anything you've said. At the same time it highlights the fact that the Tea Party's influence, while not insignificant, is inconsistent and often divided. While Romney may not be the "clear leader", he's certainly been the consistent leader in the polls. Perhaps the Tea Party will be able to pull itself together enough on Primary election days to overthrow Romney's position, but the question is, "for who?" Bachmann has faded into near obscurity, Cain has at least 3 sexual harrassment allegations that he's not dealing well with, and Perry shoots himself in the foot at every debate. |
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My vote is going for Michele Bachmann. Bachmann would probably be best for the Country. Sadly, I don't think she has a prayer. As far as the Tea Party being hindered by the lack of cohesion, I don't think it will much matter in the General Election. Tea Partiers like myself will be voting for anyone but Obama. I also think the Tea Party's influence is being underestimated in the primaries. I suspect that Romney would be the clear leader if it weren't for the influence of the Tea Party. When I look at Cains numbers it's pretty obvious to me that the country is pretty leary of RINOs and is hungry for real change. Cain really shouldn't be doing as well as he is. Until recently, he has had little funding, little media attention and his organization is pretty small in comparison, yet he leads in a whole lot of polls. If you think about it, that really says something about what's going on. I don't disagree with anything you've said. At the same time it highlights the fact that the Tea Party's influence, while not insignificant, is inconsistent and often divided. While Romney may not be the "clear leader", he's certainly been the consistent leader in the polls. Perhaps the Tea Party will be able to pull itself together enough on Primary election days to overthrow Romney's position, but the question is, "for who?" Bachmann has faded into near obscurity, Cain has at least 3 sexual harrassment allegations that he's not dealing well with, and Perry shoots himself in the foot at every debate. I think unless Cain completely unravels, he will be the Tea Party favorite. You are right though, the Tea Party isn't organized enough to pick the candidate in the Primaries. Cain said in an interview with O'Riley that donations have flooded in since the allogations. It may end up being a non-factor. It pisses me off that the candidate will already be decided by the time I get to cast my vote. The primary election system sucks ass. There needs to be a national vote. |
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RINO Romney? I guess they want a second term for Zero. Depends on one's perspective. Romney's business background does put him in a better position to help put the country on a better track economically. Business owners would probably behave more confidently with Romney at the helm. That is a huge advantage over Obama in any elections, despite Romneycare and Romney's 2nd Amendment issues. Even with Romneycare, all Romney has to do is say that he'll give every state in the union an exemption from Obamacare and he makes Romneycare practically a moot point. I'm saying this from the perspective of the average American voter, not the perspective of qualifications Arfcommers would require. Politicians say a LOT of things. That doesn't mean he'll carry through with his promises. His history is troubling and that leads me to think another candidate might be a better idea. Besides, Romney hasn't actually SAID that, right? Unfortunately I have to agree that everyone else seems to be at least partially self-destructing. That doesn't leave us with much to go on. Actually, I believe that he and Perry both made comments to that effect: http://foxnewsinsider.com/2011/09/13/romney-perry-vow-they-would-overturn-obamacare-if-elected-but-would-they-have-the-power/ There are limits to how much they could do to limits Obamacare's impact, but if we gain control of the Senate, then a Republican President's influence could help sway the necessary legislative branch votes to actually overturn Obamacare. OK, less grumpy now. Still won't believe it until I see it happen. Still not so "warm and fuzzy" about pulling the leaver for Romney, either. |
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I think your appraisal of Cain being "hamstrung" by the allegations is completely incorrect. In a weird sort of way, I actually think it's helped him.
Call it the perfect storm of excess publicity and a nation that's been too bombarded with the "everything is sexual harrassment" mindset, that I think it's proving to be a windfall for him. He mentioned on his facebook page that Monday was the best day of fundraising yet. That doesn't make any sense otherwise. |
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I think your appraisal of Cain being "hamstrung" by the allegations is completely incorrect. In a weird sort of way, I actually think it's helped him. Call it the perfect storm of excess publicity and a nation that's been too bombarded with the "everything is sexual harrassment" mindset, that I think it's proving to be a windfall for him. He mentioned on his facebook page that Monday was the best day of fundraising yet. That doesn't make any sense otherwise. That's OK if I am mistaken. |
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Bachman has a serious MILF shit going, I'd bone her.  (Why did I know that was inbound) .......because western culture has declined so that there's never really ever getting away from those dogs that know nothing but eating, sleeping, and humping your leg. 
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Won't vote for Mitt under any circumstances. Take that to the bank. Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile I as well solely due to his policies.... how can a social democrat get on the Republican primary ballot? If the Republicans want to improve the party, they need to stop this. Romney governing policies were socialized medicine, deficit spending, and anti-constitution with his gun grabbing tendencies most notable. His claim? That if his "conservative" butt was not in the governor's chair, the state would have been much worse. All Romney needed to do was round-up residents with opposing views and execute them to be completely like Stalin and Lenin. Same for Obama for that matter. |
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Quoted: Quoted: Won't vote for Mitt under any circumstances. Take that to the bank. Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile I as well solely due to his policies.... how can a social democrat get on the Republican primary ballot? If the Republicans want to improve the party, they need to stop this. That is exactly what the Primary elections are for. If Romney were pulling 10%, he wouldn't be a contender. But him and Cain seem to be the only ones getting even a quarter of the Republican support. The fact is that AMERICA is very tolerant of Socialist-lite candidates nowadays. Those that prefer to use Socialist policies to fine-tune the Capitalist system. And that is what the VAST majority of Americans seem to want because that's what the vast majority of Americans vote for. |
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So we should vote for Romney because he has really nice hair? And you support your argument by drawing on GW as the prototype of a polished candidate? I think you misoverestimate both. You misunderstand my posts completely if you think I'm saying who we should vote for. I was merely explaining the circumstances that brought us to where we are today. As for GW, those pictures are merely examples of how image and perception impact people's views. It wasn't until after the Bush vs Kerry elections that the media succeeded in destroying George W Bush's image. |
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Meh.....Obvious is obvious to anyone paying just half attention to GOP politics.
That said GOP primary voters have every right to be a bit fickle this go-round and not many are willing to tow the party line this early-on much less get Mittins out of the 20 somthing percent rut he is in. To be honest it really don't mean squat as to what the GOP party establishment wants in a canadate. They best be in-tune to what Independents want in a canadate as they are the ones that will decide who the next POTUS is. Sure that sucks for the GOP faithful but there it is. 
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