Posted: 10/31/2004 1:15:55 PM EDT
| Bush 51 Kerry 48 Nader 1! |
| IIRC Pew had Bush up huge after the convention and they were decried for their methodology, so the next poll they did showed a similar result and they tweaked the numbers to drop Bush down significantly. Remember the poll with two sets of results for the same period depending on the methodology you looked at? I believe that was Pew. In any event, their last poll showed a tie, so this is a 3 point upswing from the last poll. Right now all Kerry leads in is a two way race by Fox and that poll is questionable at best and maybe ARG and Democracy Corps which work exclusively for the DNC and other Democrat poltical organizations. |
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Keep telling yourself that! http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1243134 Once again dims don;t get it... they are looking at 2000 as the basis for their predictions. We had horrible turn-out that year. Some 3 million Evangelical Christians refused to vote for Bush... this year they are on board. We have had massive registration efforts for four years, not a few months like the dims... and we have gotten ours to the polls for the 2002 Congressional races. These people just don't understand. Not sure who cited it before... but James Carville, an asshole, but very good at what he does... asked this question, "What do you call a candidate who is relying upon new voters for victory?" The answer, "the loser." Expect to see massive fraud in places where dims have pulled it off for decades and where they have a machine in place... NY and IL for example. Republicans have Ohio locked down pretty well and we have poll watchers and monitors everywhere. They may be able to cast fake provisional ballots, but we'll be in court fighting them right and left if they are shady. |
This is what scares me....keep an eye on Ohio for this. Bush has 3,500 workers up there challenging "registration drives" on voters. These 3,500 will get alot of bad publicity from the media for "intimidation" of voters, but could very well make the difference between losing and winning. |
Not a chance. Kerry's got a "lock" on at least ten states and always has. Current State Averages: 1. New York: Kerry +18% 2. Massachussettes: Kerry +14% 3. Rhode Island: Kerry +13% 4. Vermont: Kerry 13% 5. Illinois: Kerry +12% 7. Maryland: Kerry + 11% 8. Connecticut: Kerry +10% 9. California: Kerry +7% 10. Delaware: Kerry +7% You really think Maryland, Connecticut, California and Delaware will suddenly move into GWBush's column? |
When Bush takes NJ it could have a negative effect on Dim turnout in the western states. Not saying 45, but Bush will win with over 300 EVs. |
I don't think Ohio will be that big a problem. A federal court struck down the the worst part of the provisional ballot scam that the dems were trying to pull. We will win Ohio by 5 points or more. Bank on it. Some stats from Ohio in 2000, Bush was supposed to win by around 12 points, the republicans got lazy and did not show up to the polls and he wound up winning by only four. Bush/Rove have the republican machine in Ohio wired down to the individual in each precinct in Ohio. They know were they stand and what they need to do to get the numbers to win. As far as new voters the democrats have outsourced their GOTV to groups like ACORN, ACT and the NAACP which is giving crack cocaine to people to get them to register votes. ACORN and ACT are two of the biggest scams going in election history. They are paying folks 1 or 2 dollars for every voter who shows up. These folks are just making shit up using names like Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck. Guess what, Mickey Mouse aint gonna show up and vote, neither will most of the names turned in from these guys. In addition many of the people who ACORN registered never were turned in. You also hear a bunch about how the new registered young voters are young and motivated. You can break that down into two groups of young voters. Dems and Republicans. The young dems are signing up because they are being given tickets to go see Puff Daddy and M&M. If you basically have to bribe someone to vote how reliable are they?? The young republicans are self motivating and will register on their own. Now who do you want to put your hopes and faith on, a young republican who is from a traditional family, who hunts, goes to church, owns firearms, has parents that are professionals or military, or some inner city youth who is standingt on a corner with bling bling on his neck and a new ticket stub to puff daddy in his pocket?? The republicans are in good shape. |
As long as I remember, NJ was alwasy a blue state. this year my buddies in NJ tell me that about 1 in 20 will support kerry. A first in my memory. IIRC of course |
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