[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Major hurricane approaching TX/LA. (Page 1 of 12)
Posted: 8/20/2020 9:38:15 AM EDT
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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf®ion=98L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2020081918&fh=-12 The above link is to the HWRF model for 98L. It was initialized yesterday. If you advance the slider it shows a 942MB storm, which is around a cat 4, coming into Homestead at 18z the 24th. In no way am I fear mongering. Just showing what one model shows several days out. As always get your info from the National Weather Service not from one model on the internet. I also didn't see a dupe. ETA - I see my link isn't going to the right place. Just click on "forecast models","Hurricane", then select HWRF for the one in question. Edit for title change - Again |
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NHC has it as a tropical storm for the same time period. Relax. Attached File |
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Quoted: NHC has it as a tropical storm for the same time period. Relax. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/136311/BF66E3C9-3544-4E6D-8376-6BC73DF55170_png-1554258.JPG Yeah it's only one model. |
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Quoted: Yeah it's only one model. Quoted: Quoted: NHC has it as a tropical storm for the same time period. Relax. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/136311/BF66E3C9-3544-4E6D-8376-6BC73DF55170_png-1554258.JPG Yeah it's only one model. 
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| I've noticed most of the models skew projected storm tracks that far out with a northern bias. The tracks are adjusted more south and westward daily as the storms get more organized and approach landfall. This one may wind up in the gulf and really get cranked up, worth keeping an eye on it. |
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Quoted: You should be using peel n stick Quoted: Quoted: I am in the middle of putting a new metal roof on and currently only have paper up there. Not a good feeling going into the weekend. You should be using peel n stick I had my roof replaced in 2010 or so. I paid an extra $100 to have peel n stick used instead of paper. Fast forward to 2018 and Hurricane Michael...no water in the house thru the roof in Cat 4 conditions. My adjuster said he was really happy to see the peel n stick under the shingles when he drove up. @luscioman |
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Quoted: Wait until Trump gets his sharpie out, that may change his mind  Quoted: Quoted: Our local news guy out of Mobile says it's a nothing burger and keeps saying it. Wait until Trump gets his sharpie out, that may change his mind Personally I would wait until Frankie McDonald uploads a video on it. Then I would worry. |
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Quoted: You should be using peel n stick Quoted: Quoted: I am in the middle of putting a new metal roof on and currently only have paper up there. Not a good feeling going into the weekend. You should be using peel n stick This. Anyone doing a roof or re-roof in Florida should be using a better water barrier than felt/syn felt. Plus you can save a few $$ on your insurance |
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Quoted: I am a little concerned with the one that is near the Gulf, one path shows it hitting FL and the other shows it hitting LA, I am okay with either but we are right in the middle. |
Cantorie mode activated... Weather Center Live Full Severe Theme |
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More preps. Snagging a 12K BTU window A/C to cool the living area during the day tomorrow. Will shut it down and run the 8K BTU in the master at bedtime. Go away asshole hurricane. Edit, Just went for a haircut and while out and about snagged another 20 gals of gas. Still need to hit the liquor store in town. |
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Quoted: NHC just upgraded to a hurricane for a Monday showing of fun times ahead. It's now Tropical Depression 13. Intensity forecasts this far out are pretty tough to nail down. ( Or even get remotely close ) Also some model tracks have it going more north to around Palm Beach while another has it threading the needle between Cuba and the Keys and turning into a monster in the Gulf. The NHC also have another storm going into the Gulf, TD14, as a strong Tropical Storm in a few days. |
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That track would definitely suck. Especially if it curves back East once it gets to the Tuesday location. I have about a dozen houses under construction I'd have to go prep for the wind.  Who the hell thought it was a good idea to build in Florida? 
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Quoted: That track would definitely suck. Especially if it curves back West once it gets to the Tuesday location. I have about a dozen houses under construction I'd have to go prep for the wind. Who the hell thought it was a good idea to build in Florida? Quoted: That track would definitely suck. Especially if it curves back West once it gets to the Tuesday location. I have about a dozen houses under construction I'd have to go prep for the wind. Who the hell thought it was a good idea to build in Florida? We don't want to consider it going further west. We got flooded from a hurricane 8/27/17. That would put it about 8/27/20. |
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Quoted: I had my roof replaced in 2010 or so. I paid an extra $100 to have peel n stick used instead of paper. Fast forward to 2018 and Hurricane Michael...no water in the house thru the roof in Cat 4 conditions. My adjuster said he was really happy to see the peel n stick under the shingles when he drove up. @luscioman Not sure where you're located, but our roof held up well, generally, but we took a TON of wind-blown water through our various vents and whatnot. We lost less than a dozen shingles off our ridge vent (which are basically aesthetic), and that was it, but still took a ton of water. |
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Quoted: Not sure where you're located, but our roof held up well, generally, but we took a TON of wind-blown water through our various vents and whatnot. We lost less than a dozen shingles off our ridge vent (which are basically aesthetic), and that was it, but still took a ton of water. @kindalazy IM sent. I was north of town, left around 9 PM night before when I started seeing the real-time numbers puff up. Getting 4 AM NOAA texts that essentially read "an ass-kicking is coming, heads down now" is sobering. |
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Quoted: We don't want to consider it going further west. We got flooded from a hurricane 8/27/17. That would put it about 8/27/20. Quoted: Quoted: That track would definitely suck. Especially if it curves back West once it gets to the Tuesday location. I have about a dozen houses under construction I'd have to go prep for the wind. Who the hell thought it was a good idea to build in Florida? We don't want to consider it going further west. We got flooded from a hurricane 8/27/17. That would put it about 8/27/20. I'm retarded, I meant East. So you're GTG.
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you do realize that image keeps changing, don't you? if you want to post images from the nhc site, you have to get a copy of the image and post that, if you don't want it to keep changing edit - it's likely, if the high over the west atlantic strengthens as is forcast, that the system will pass south of florida and become a pensacola hit |
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Quoted: I had my roof replaced in 2010 or so. I paid an extra $100 to have peel n stick used instead of paper. Fast forward to 2018 and Hurricane Michael...no water in the house thru the roof in Cat 4 conditions. My adjuster said he was really happy to see the peel n stick under the shingles when he drove up. @luscioman You should also get a break on your insurance for having a “secondary water barrier” |
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Quoted: @kindalazy IM sent. I was north of town, left around 9 PM night before when I started seeing the real-time numbers puff up. Getting 4 AM NOAA texts that essentially read "an ass-kicking is coming, heads down now" is sobering. Imagine getting them when you’ve already made the decision to stay and your 75YO MIL with dementia is at your house. |
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Quoted: This is a pretty tight consensus of the models for this far out. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/248909/13L_tracks_latest_png-1554585.JPG https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/248909/13L_gefs_latest_png-1554587.JPG Is that the Port St Joe/ Mexico beach area? |