[ARCHIVED THREAD] - How to fix A-stan? (Page 1 of 2)
Posted: 12/11/2008 9:43:56 AM EDT
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Ok, so I know for a long time the arguement by the brass and experts was that to many boots on the ground in A-stan would make the local population rise up and resist American influence and power.
But now after watching the latest Frontline, I am starting to think that we need 100k boots on the ground now plus whatever NATO is supplying outside the USA. Any educated thoughts? |
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For one thing, stop letting countries (like Germany, Spain, etc.) PRETEND to participate, by sending lots of troops and then keeping them in safe parts of the country and refusing to let them fight or even engage the enemy. Get serious about fighting and get all the "paper soldiers" the fuck out of the country.
Second, instead of throwing $15 billion down the toilet by giving it to incompetent car manufacturers in the U.S., start heavily subsidizing Afghan agriculture. Bring in irrigation experts and start trying to turn that place into a modern agricultural nation, growing the kind of cash crops that there is high demand for in the West and in Asia. Third, give the Pakis whatever they want (even if it pisses off the Indians) to let us operate in their northen tribal areas and root our the cockroaches that are hiding there. |
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Quoted:
For one thing, stop letting countries (like Germany, Spain, etc.) PRETEND to participate, by sending lots of troops and then keeping them in safe parts of the country and refusing to let them fight or even engage the enemy. Get serious about fighting and get all the "paper soldiers" the fuck out of the country. Second, instead of throwing $15 billion down the toilet by giving it to incompetent car manufacturers in the U.S., start heavily subsidizing Afghan agriculture. Bring in irrigation experts and start trying to turn that place into a modern agricultural nation, growing the kind of cash crops that there is high demand for in the West and in Asia. Third, give the Pakis whatever they want (even if it pisses off the Indians) to let us operate in their northen tribal areas and root our the cockroaches that are hiding there. But we keep trashing their poppy fields. 
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Quoted:
Quoted:
For one thing, stop letting countries (like Germany, Spain, etc.) PRETEND to participate, by sending lots of troops and then keeping them in safe parts of the country and refusing to let them fight or even engage the enemy. Get serious about fighting and get all the "paper soldiers" the fuck out of the country. Second, instead of throwing $15 billion down the toilet by giving it to incompetent car manufacturers in the U.S., start heavily subsidizing Afghan agriculture. Bring in irrigation experts and start trying to turn that place into a modern agricultural nation, growing the kind of cash crops that there is high demand for in the West and in Asia. Third, give the Pakis whatever they want (even if it pisses off the Indians) to let us operate in their northen tribal areas and root our the cockroaches that are hiding there. But we keep trashing their poppy fields. That's the point of the massive agricultural subsidies - make it unprofitable to grow poppy, and get them onto other crops. |
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Quoted:
For one thing, stop letting countries (like Germany, Spain, etc.) PRETEND to participate, by sending lots of troops and then keeping them in safe parts of the country and refusing to let them fight or even engage the enemy. Get serious about fighting and get all the "paper soldiers" the fuck out of the country. Second, instead of throwing $15 billion down the toilet by giving it to incompetent car manufacturers in the U.S., start heavily subsidizing Afghan agriculture. Bring in irrigation experts and start trying to turn that place into a modern agricultural nation, growing the kind of cash crops that there is high demand for in the West and in Asia. Third, give the Pakis whatever they want (even if it pisses off the Indians) to let us operate in their northen tribal areas and root our the cockroaches that are hiding there. Pakistan does not have the will to uproute the Pakistan Taliban. It would require us to go in with force to do it. I would almost think that even 10k troops if stationed in one bad area for one year could start to stem the tide though. Rather than spreading them out equally thin, I think 10k troops in the Valley and the Khyber Pass would make some kind of progress that we have lost. |
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A counter-insurgency takes time. The key to winning this war, a counter-insurgency, is training the Afghan Police (very important) and military so that they can be self sufficient. Next, take the necessary steps to ensure that the government is legitimate in the eyes of the people, which will make the Taliban nothing but trouble makers.
We have been very successful at all of the above so far. More time is needed. The Taliban are on the ropes, something the media will never admit, and the heightened attacks and changing of tactics are a desperation move. A problem unique to Afghanistan is the lack of infrastructure and the isolation of many parts of the country due to the extremely rugged terrain. Those are challenged being addressed by Provinical Reconstruction Teams that are teams of military and civilian engineers working to build roads; among other things. Key point: We are winning. |
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They are beginning to grow pomegranites which, per acre, make more $$$ than opium.
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Quoted:
For one thing, stop letting countries (like Germany, Spain, etc.) PRETEND to participate, by sending lots of troops and then keeping them in safe parts of the country and refusing to let them fight or even engage the enemy. Get serious about fighting and get all the "paper soldiers" the fuck out of the country. Second, instead of throwing $15 billion down the toilet by giving it to incompetent car manufacturers in the U.S., start heavily subsidizing Afghan agriculture. Bring in irrigation experts and start trying to turn that place into a modern agricultural nation, growing the kind of cash crops that there is high demand for in the West and in Asia. Third, give the Pakis whatever they want (even if it pisses off the Indians) to let us operate in their northen tribal areas and root our the cockroaches that are hiding there. But we keep trashing their poppy fields. That's the point of the massive agricultural subsidies - make it unprofitable to grow poppy, and get them onto other crops. |
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
For one thing, stop letting countries (like Germany, Spain, etc.) PRETEND to participate, by sending lots of troops and then keeping them in safe parts of the country and refusing to let them fight or even engage the enemy. Get serious about fighting and get all the "paper soldiers" the fuck out of the country. Second, instead of throwing $15 billion down the toilet by giving it to incompetent car manufacturers in the U.S., start heavily subsidizing Afghan agriculture. Bring in irrigation experts and start trying to turn that place into a modern agricultural nation, growing the kind of cash crops that there is high demand for in the West and in Asia. Third, give the Pakis whatever they want (even if it pisses off the Indians) to let us operate in their northen tribal areas and root our the cockroaches that are hiding there. But we keep trashing their poppy fields. That's the point of the massive agricultural subsidies - make it unprofitable to grow poppy, and get them onto other crops. The Taliban is basically in control of the poppy fields. The State Dept has been running a small merc force to try and destroy rogue fields and such, but its hard to tell a farmer to grow corn vs poppies considering the price. The KLA of Kosovo, which should have never been allowed to leave Serbia, are the prime hub of the opium trade into Europe and has strong ties to AQ and the Taliban. |
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Quoted:
Quoted:
They are beginning to grow pomegranites which, per acre, make more $$$ than opium.
Quoted:
Quoted:
For one thing, stop letting countries (like Germany, Spain, etc.) PRETEND to participate, by sending lots of troops and then keeping them in safe parts of the country and refusing to let them fight or even engage the enemy. Get serious about fighting and get all the "paper soldiers" the fuck out of the country. Second, instead of throwing $15 billion down the toilet by giving it to incompetent car manufacturers in the U.S., start heavily subsidizing Afghan agriculture. Bring in irrigation experts and start trying to turn that place into a modern agricultural nation, growing the kind of cash crops that there is high demand for in the West and in Asia. Third, give the Pakis whatever they want (even if it pisses off the Indians) to let us operate in their northen tribal areas and root our the cockroaches that are hiding there. But we keep trashing their poppy fields. That's the point of the massive agricultural subsidies - make it unprofitable to grow poppy, and get them onto other crops. But in the South east the area is under tribal and Taliban control, so the growing continues by threats of our enemies. We simply do not have enough boots on the ground. |
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A-stan was largely fixed and on the right track when we turned it over to Nato in 2005. I was there.
The badguys couldn't talk to each other without us going after them, and they couldn't mass much more than a squad. If they grew poppies or pot, we burned it and told them to grow something else. If they attacked us or civilians, we went after them, even into "non-permissive" areas. Food production was up, schools were being built, etc etc. We spent more nights outside the wire than in, in small villages and sometimes just compounds in the middle of the mountains, sometimes as few as 5 or 6 guys. All of those policies were reversed. Now, the badguys do just about whatever they want. Our own policies and ROEs have done this, nothing else. For example, if we live in FOBs, we lose. If we only move in large units because its "safer", we lose. Why the hell do we have to relearn the same lessons over and over and over. I go back overseas in Feb, and am curious what changes are obvious. 
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Quoted:
Quoted:
They are beginning to grow pomegranites which, per acre, make more $$$ than opium.
Quoted:
Quoted:
For one thing, stop letting countries (like Germany, Spain, etc.) PRETEND to participate, by sending lots of troops and then keeping them in safe parts of the country and refusing to let them fight or even engage the enemy. Get serious about fighting and get all the "paper soldiers" the fuck out of the country. Second, instead of throwing $15 billion down the toilet by giving it to incompetent car manufacturers in the U.S., start heavily subsidizing Afghan agriculture. Bring in irrigation experts and start trying to turn that place into a modern agricultural nation, growing the kind of cash crops that there is high demand for in the West and in Asia. Third, give the Pakis whatever they want (even if it pisses off the Indians) to let us operate in their northen tribal areas and root our the cockroaches that are hiding there. But we keep trashing their poppy fields. That's the point of the massive agricultural subsidies - make it unprofitable to grow poppy, and get them onto other crops. I read an article about that recently, and it's one example of this kind of idea - but it will not work without big expenditures and subsidies on our part. The fact that it CAN work doesn't mean it will unless we throw money and resources at it to get it up and running. |
| Well allot of you have touched on it, prior to turning OEF over to NATO/ISAF were had much better ROE than we do now. I personally know of dozens of cases in which we had targetable intel on the enemy, but because of various collateral damage concerns we couldn't kill the HVI. This was a two part problem, the first being Karzai and his 12 directives for us conducting combat in AFG and the second is our allies for most part 1) don't want to kill people 2) believe something about COIN that is not true, that is possible to win hearts and minds without killing enough people to convince the locals who is the strongest tribe. |
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The Frontline report mentioned that the average Pustun is getting upset with Karzi's government and his support is shrinking due to his lack of control of the country and corruption as well.
I hate to say this but a major change in plans needs to be addressed like Iraq PreSurge. |
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One of the troops interviewed said that his unit was getting an attack about every 3 days, but now its everyday 3-5 times a day.
The fact that troops are lobbying 80mm motars rather than engaging outside the FOB is a complete failure in the valley as of now. We need boots. |
| The whole 'no one will ever make Afghanistan work' line is the same defeatist rubbish that's now being voiced by the people that brought us 'Iraq will be our Vietnam' and 'the surge isn't working', it'll only work when we make it work, and with the massive troop influxes this summer coming the Taleban are going to have some major problems. |
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The whole 'no one will ever make Afghanistan work' line is the same defeatist rubbish that's now being voiced by the people that brought us 'Iraq will be our Vietnam' and 'the surge isn't working', it'll only work when we make it work, and with the massive troop influxes this summer coming the Taleban are going to have some major problems. +1 Nobody, and I mean nobody, has done in the past what we've been doing in Afghanistan. Comparing our ops to the Soviets? Please. The mission is different, the tactics are different, the overall strategy is different, the very purpose of the mission is different, etc, etc. In fact, what can you say is similar, other than an outside military force is in Afghanistan? |
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Nobody, and I mean nobody, has done in the past what we've been doing in Afghanistan. Comparing our ops to the Soviets? Please. The mission is different, the tactics are different, the overall strategy is different, the very purpose of the mission is different, etc, etc. In fact, what can you say is similar, other than an outside military force is in Afghanistan? It is kind of ironic that our allies our following a similar strategy as the former Soviets, the stay on a few strategic FOBs, while occasionally sallying forth on a major named operation only to cede the land back to the Jihadis, the only thing missing is the sledge hammer usage of fire power. |
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Nobody, and I mean nobody, has done in the past what we've been doing in Afghanistan. Comparing our ops to the Soviets? Please. The mission is different, the tactics are different, the overall strategy is different, the very purpose of the mission is different, etc, etc. In fact, what can you say is similar, other than an outside military force is in Afghanistan? It is kind of ironic that our allies our following a similar strategy as the former Soviets, the stay on a few strategic FOBs, while occasionally sallying forth on a major named operation only to cede the land back to the Jihadis, the only thing missing is the sledge hammer usage of fire power. Ironic indeed, and very telling WRT the worsening changes we've seen there... |
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Second, instead of throwing $15 billion down the toilet by giving it to incompetent car manufacturers in the U.S., start heavily subsidizing Afghan agriculture. Bring in irrigation experts and start trying to turn that place into a modern agricultural nation, growing the kind of cash crops that there is high demand for in the West and in Asia. As long as the Presidents brother is the biggest dope grower in the country, there will be no incentive or push to move away from the drug production. |
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Don't worry. When I get there in March, I'll fix it for you guys. Seriously though, there are like 6 infantry brigades headedt here early-mid '09. Something will be happening. Troops alone aren't the solution. We had fewer troops there in the past, and were successful. The policies and ROEs got us where we are now. Admittedly, we probably need more troops to get back to on-track now that we're off, but simply sending more troops and maintaining the assinine policies will not make it better. |
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As long as the Presidents brother is the biggest dope grower in the country, there will be no incentive or push to move away from the drug production. That, has set aside Taliban safe areas out in RC-W, fires army officers who are effective and not to mention him limiting our usage of fire power. |
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A-stan was largely fixed and on the right track when we turned it over to Nato in 2005. I was there. The badguys couldn't talk to each other without us going after them, and they couldn't mass much more than a squad. If they grew poppies or pot, we burned it and told them to grow something else. If they attacked us or civilians, we went after them, even into "non-permissive" areas. Food production was up, schools were being built, etc etc. We spent more nights outside the wire than in, in small villages and sometimes just compounds in the middle of the mountains, sometimes as few as 5 or 6 guys. All of those policies were reversed. Now, the badguys do just about whatever they want. Our own policies and ROEs have done this, nothing else. For example, if we live in FOBs, we lose. If we only move in large units because its "safer", we lose. Why the hell do we have to relearn the same lessons over and over and over. I go back overseas in Feb, and am curious what changes are obvious. I didn't see anything about opium or heroin production levels decreasing. It's the cash cow for Taliban, but also provided the only meager cash the people might see. Burn the poppy field and the farmers can't feed their kids. I'd be suprise if pomegrtantes were viable there- same with corn. It takes a lot of water. Poppies don't need very much water, hence they're suited to drier areas. eta: "Soil: The pomegranate does best in well-drained ordinary soil, but also thrives on calcareous or acidic loam as well as rock strewn gravel. Irrigation: Once established, pomegranates can take considerable drought, but for good fruit production they must be irrigated. To establish new plants they should be watered every 2 to 4 weeks during the dry season. The plants are tolerant of moderately saline water and soil conditions." |
| Poppies actually require allot of water. One of the reasons poppie production was down this summer was 24 MEU's operation in the snakes head of Garmsir. Even though poppie production wasn't targeted the combat operations prevented water pumps from being turned on at regular intervals to moved water from the Helmand river to the various irrigation ditches for the poppies, so the extreme heat "burned" them. |
The last number I saw (a year ago) was over $3B in drug profits were being generated by Afghanistan, largely going to 4 elements (all badguys- and only one of which is the Taliban). It was calculated to be in the hundreds of millions during the initial phase of our operations there. Not perfect by any stretch, but a huge difference. And it was trending down, and is now trending up. 
We didn't burn farmers' fields and leave them to starve. We linked the farmers with the local gov to get the aid we were funneling through them. And we followed up, and canned the local gov officials who got it wrong. And it was working. I have pics of us burning a 300acre pot field. Yikes! Saffron is just about a direct substitution for the poppy plant, and very lucrative crop. They might not grow food, but they can certainly buy it if they replace their drug crops with it. We even helped some of them get it to market. |
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The whole 'no one will ever make Afghanistan work' line is the same defeatist rubbish that's now being voiced by the people that brought us 'Iraq will be our Vietnam' and 'the surge isn't working', it'll only work when we make it work, and with the massive troop influxes this summer coming the Taleban are going to have some major problems. Until the Afghan people want and support change and advancement, nothing will change. Right now, many of them see us as simply the latest country to scam as much stuff off of as they can. Many of them are perfectly happy to live in a mud hut stuck in the 15th century. The national posture is with a hand extended begging. |
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An option is to buy the opium crop directly from the farmer for a few seasons. Pay them more than they would get from their std buyer.
Then sell it to big Pharma (if you want to recoup some of the investment) or just burn it. This would deprive the Taliban and corrupt GIROA folks of the tax / kickback streams that are supporting in large part the insurgency and corruption. You do that for a few seasons and the Taliban are financially broke, unable to buy weapons and food and the corrupt governance goes looking for something else. Expensive, yes, but I think cheaper than dropping JDAMs on 1-2 uneducated former goat herders with 20 year old AKs. Something to think about it... |
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An option is to buy the opium crop directly from the farmer for a few seasons. Pay them more than they would get from their std buyer. Then sell it to big Pharma (if you want to recoup some of the investment) or just burn it. This would deprive the Taliban and corrupt GIROA folks of the tax / kickback streams that are supporting in large part the insurgency and corruption. You do that for a few seasons and the Taliban are financially broke, unable to buy weapons and food and the corrupt governance goes looking for something else. Expensive, yes, but I think cheaper than dropping JDAMs on 1-2 uneducated former goat herders with 20 year old AKs. Something to think about it... It really won't work. Most farmers don't really care what they grow, the two poppy seasons fit in well with the off cycle of their subsistence crops. However, the real incentive they are given to grow it is the TB come in and gives them the seed and a production quota of resin to turn in a the end of each crop, don't meet the quota you or a family member gets beheaded. There are allot of cases of farmers buying or trading for enough resin to make their quota. If the TB went away, their would still be the financial incentive, however that can be beat if we rid the area of the TB. |
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Hearts and Minds cannot be won if the village we are trying to convience does not have a strong COIN presence. If the foot patrol retreats back to the FOB on the hillside, and the Taliban sneaks back in at night to lob a few 80mm on the FOB, and the US then goes on the warpath against the village hut that fired the shot, then the villagers cannot beleive in the whole, we will protect you bullshit.
My personal opinion is it would be a better move to relocate the villagers of the Korengal Valley ASAP. There is not point in defending that area and allowing the enemy a place of refuge at the same time. Turn that area into a non passable area and pay the locals to relocate to Kabul or something. Then go Southern Arizona Border Patrol on that area with sensors and landmines and Reapers. |