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Posted: 6/14/2009 3:34:30 AM EST


Now that the elections are over in Iran and Israel is alone to decide their fate... how long will it be before
Benjamin unleashes canned sunshine on Iran?


I have a feeling it will be very,very soon!
Link Posted: 6/14/2009 3:35:42 AM EST
[Last Edit: 6/14/2009 3:36:43 AM EST by Dru]
Hopefully soon........
Link Posted: 6/14/2009 3:36:11 AM EST
I'm starting to question both their ability to actually hit Iran, and their political will power.

IMHO, we won't see what needs to be done.
Link Posted: 6/14/2009 3:37:09 AM EST
Originally Posted By shootemup:
I'm starting to question both their ability to actually hit Iran, and their political will power.

IMHO, we won't see what needs to be done.


this

lulz on the "canned sunshine" euphemism
Link Posted: 6/14/2009 3:37:32 AM EST
Originally Posted By shootemup:
I'm starting to question both their ability to actually hit Iran, and their political will power.

IMHO, we won't see what needs to be done.


this
Link Posted: 6/14/2009 3:40:55 AM EST
thus the speech tonight?I hope he announces "military operations have begun" or at the very least "FBO!".
Link Posted: 6/14/2009 3:43:08 AM EST
Soon there will be no option. I am sure they would rather not but it is going to a necessary thing and they will do it.
Link Posted: 6/14/2009 3:43:58 AM EST
Originally Posted By Dru:
Originally Posted By shootemup:
I'm starting to question both their ability to actually hit Iran, and their political will power.

IMHO, we won't see what needs to be done.


this


I spoke with a politically influential Jew this past Wednesday who makes his living talking to other politically influential Jews and I can say for a certain they possess the will to survive..

Bi-bi, according to some, has been raised to power for this very reason...

Either way...I know for certain that war is nearly unavoidable..Amidinajad will either make good on his promises or Israel will strike first..There is no peaceful sollution!
Link Posted: 6/14/2009 4:49:59 AM EST
Link Posted: 6/14/2009 6:22:39 AM EST
No time soon.......Obungo told him not to.
Link Posted: 6/14/2009 4:59:34 PM EST
[Last Edit: 6/14/2009 5:00:10 PM EST by GUNSFORHIRE]
Originally Posted By Drsalee:
No time soon.......Obungo told him not to.


I am guessing they would say to Obongo the same as I .... if my family were facing extermination...

FOAD!!!
Link Posted: 6/14/2009 5:04:09 PM EST
87 days
Link Posted: 6/14/2009 8:15:10 PM EST
Originally Posted By GUNSFORHIRE:
Originally Posted By Drsalee:
No time soon.......Obungo told him not to.


I am guessing they would say to Obongo the same as I .... if my family were facing extermination...

FOAD!!!


They'll say no such thing. About the only bright spot in the Obama Presidency is he's putting a muzzle on Israel.

I was positive there would be an Israel-Iran war this year, but now I'm positive there won't be. Anti-semites and nutjobs think "the jews run the US", but in fact we've got Israel on a leash and they won't do shit of this magnitude without our go-ahead.

If anyone's going to stop Iran, it needs to be the US.
Link Posted: 6/14/2009 8:21:52 PM EST
[Last Edit: 6/14/2009 8:23:29 PM EST by theBUBBAMANcan]
The current administration has made it clear that the U.S. cannot/will not back Israel in a war with Iran.

Israel will not attempt to go into a full-scale war alone with Iran.

FWIW: Israeli fears of a nuclear strike from Iran are based on the assumption that Iran's leadership is completely irrational and that deterrence will not work. I suspect that this is not the case.

ETA: The U.S. is pushing for a "two-state" solution. It seems as though Netanyahu is recognizing the necessity of going along with this.
Link Posted: 6/14/2009 8:28:31 PM EST
Outside of repelling foreign invasion Israel is not going to be making any overt military actions into the forseeable future. They do not have the political support in the USA or withing their own country. Iran is going to build a small arsenal of nukes. Israel's only option is to engage in a policy of Mutual Assured Destruction as we had during the Cold War.
Link Posted: 6/14/2009 8:37:19 PM EST
Originally Posted By Clackamas:
Outside of repelling foreign invasion Israel is not going to be making any overt military actions into the forseeable future. They do not have the political support in the USA or withing their own country. Iran is going to build a small arsenal of nukes. Israel's only option is to engage in a policy of Mutual Assured Destruction as we had during the Cold War.


Pretty much this
Link Posted: 6/14/2009 8:42:27 PM EST
I doubt Israel has the capacity to put an end to Iran's quest to gain nuclear weapons via conventional means. I'm not sure we could.
I also have a hard time seeing Israel using nukes on a preemptive basis without some major major provocation etc. They might
however launch a retaliatory major nuclear strike if they know or believe that missiles or other devices are in the air and headed towards
them. They sure as hell won't wait for a nuke to detonate before replying in kind unless they have some serious doubts as to their intel.

As for Ahmadenernutjobber and the rest of the mullahs being "rational" and restraining themselves ala the MAD doctrine that worked during
the cold war?..............they don't think that way. They have a martyr mentality. So I would not count on the "if you launch at us we will
launch at you" threat to carry as much weight as one might hope.

I fully suspect that once Iran decided they have enough warheads and an adequate delivery method they will take a crack at exterminating the
state of Israel. When that might happen is open to debate.....and Iran and her people might actually succeed in changing the makeup of their
government prior to that time so Iran nuking Israel is not a definite thing. But it is a very strong possibility.

As for America holding Israel by a "leash"....thats funny. Not true, but funny. They listen to us. They want our support. They would like to have
us on board with anything they decide to do. But they aren't going to stand by and do what we tell them to if they really feel threatened.
They will act without us if their calculations indicate they need to do so.

Link Posted: 6/14/2009 8:58:13 PM EST
Most Israelis could live with a nuclear Iran: poll
Sun Jun 14, 2009 8:00am EDT
By Dan Williams

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Only one in five Israeli Jews believes a nuclear-armed Iran would try to destroy Israel and most see life continuing as normal should their arch-foe get the bomb, an opinion poll published on Sunday found.

The survey, commissioned by a Tel Aviv University think tank, appeared to challenge the argument of successive Israeli governments that Iran must be denied the means to make atomic weapons lest it threaten the existence of the Jewish state.

Asked how a nuclear-armed Iran would affect their lives, 80 percent of respondents said they expected no change. Eleven percent said they would consider emigrating and 9 percent said they would consider relocating inside Israel.

Twenty-one percent of Israelis believe Iran "would attack Israel with nuclear weapons with the objective of destroying it," the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), which commissioned the poll, said in a statement.

Iran says its uranium enrichment, which has bomb-making potential, is for energy only. But its leaders' anti-Israel rhetoric and support for Islamist guerrillas in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories have stirred fears of a regional war.

Some Israeli officials have said that the Islamic republic's ruling clerics may consider destroying Israel a goal worth the risk even of a devastating counter-strike: Israel is widely assumed to have the Middle East's only atomic arsenal.

A longer-term scenario sees Iran using the nuclear specter to undermine Israelis' desire to stay in their homeland.

DETERRENCE, RATIONALISM

"The Israeli leadership may be more informed," INSS research director Yehuda Ben Meir told Reuters, explaining that the discrepancy between public and government views about Iran.

But he added: "I think the Israeli public does not see this as an existential threat, and here there may be an exaggeration by some members of the leadership.

"Most Israelis appear willing to place their bet on Israel's deterrent capability and, I would add, on Iran's rational behavior."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was to give a major policy speech on Sunday citing Iran's reach among the reasons his government is reluctant to cede occupied land for a Palestinian state, as envisaged by U.S.-led peace mediators.

Like his predecessors, Netanyahu has hinted Israel could attack Iran pre-emptively should Western diplomacy fail to curb its uranium enrichment.

The INSS survey found 59 percent of Israeli Jews would support such strikes, while 41 percent would not back the military option.

The poll had 616 respondents and a margin of error of 3.5 percent, Ben Meir said.

Israeli Arabs who make up some 20 percent of the population –– and are generally less likely to see themselves as targets of the Jewish state's enemies –– were not included for budgetary reasons, he said.

A separate survey, commissioned by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, found 52 percent support for pre-emptive Israeli attacks on Iran, with 35 percent of respondents opposed.

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE55D0DR20090614



And Israel's biggest supporter in the Obama administration has just been sacked:


Last update - 08:29 15/06/2009

Dennis Ross to be ousted as Obama's envoy to Iran

By Barak Ravid, Haaretz Correspondent

Tags: Israel News, Dennis Ross


Dennis Ross, who most recently served as a special State Department envoy to Iran, will abruptly be relieved of his duties, sources in Washington told Haaretz. An official announcement is expected in the coming days.

The Obama administration will announce that Ross has been reassigned to another position in the White House. In his new post, the former Mideast peace envoy under President Bill Clinton will deal primarily with regional issues related to the peace process.

Washington insiders speculate that a number of reasons moved the administration to reassign Ross. One possibility is Iran's persistent refusal to accept Ross as a U.S. emissary given the diplomat's Jewish background as well as his purported pro-Israel leanings. Ross is known to maintain contacts with numerous senior officials in Israel's defense establishment and the Israeli government.

Diplomatic sources in Jerusalem surmised that another possibility for Ross' ouster is his just-released book, "Myths, Illusions, and Peace - Finding a New Direction for America in the Middle East."

Ross, who co-wrote the book with David Makovsky, a former journalist who is a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, argued against a linkage between the Palestinian issue and the West's policy against Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Ross and Mokovsky also raised the possibility of military action against Iran.

"Tougher policies - either militarily or meaningful containment - will be easier to sell internationally and domestically if we have diplomatically tried to resolve our differences with Iran in a serious and credible fashion," they wrote.

Another possible reason for the reshuffle could be Ross' dissatisfaction with his present standing in the State Department, particularly given the fact that Washington's two other envoys to the region - George Mitchell, who is overseeing the Mideast peace process; and Richard Holbrooke, who is dealing with Pakistan and Afghanistan - wield great influence and are featured prominently.

A diplomatic source in Jerusalem speculated that perhaps Ross preferred to work for the National Security Agency, which answers directly to President Barack Obama, and would thus be considered a more enhanced role.

Last year, Ross was an advisor to Obama's successful presidential campaign. Before Obama's inauguration, speculation was rampant as to which job Ross would assume in the new administration.

On February 24, 2009, he was officially appointed as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's advisor on the Persian Gulf and special envoy to Iran.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1093058.html


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