Has the bourbon bubble popped...? (Page 1 of 2)
Posted: 1/16/2025 7:12:30 PM EDT
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I, for one, have enough great bottles that FOMO is over for me.. https://youtu.be/c8eigmd3okw?si=-TNjy_R4ItwxwPP1 |
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When I see things like EH Taylor, Weller 107, and ET Lee sitting on the shelf at normal retail price I’ll believe it. |
“Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.”
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If you have a favorite Mezcal or Tequila you had better stock up on it. Mezcal is up 51%! Ouch! Bottles are now being allocated. Unfortunately, the bourbon secondary market hasn't shown it yet. But barrel prices are down with almost every major distillery. I've heard MGP is letting juice go for 50-70% less then a two years ago. Sounds like, we need to pool our money and buy a few barrels for an AFCOM Bottle Drop. Who want to buy the correct licenses? We will also need tasters to blend the barrels but that's the fun part! |
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Originally Posted By TN-MadDog: When I see things like EH Taylor, Weller 107, and ET Lee sitting on the shelf at normal retail price I’ll believe it. |
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Proud member of Team Ranstad.
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It is certainly slowing down. Distillers ramped up production, and increasing inflation along with changing interests seem to be increasing supply. Have read several articles about distillers reducing workforce, scaling back, etc. But like several have already said, probably the best bell weather will be those Buffalo Trace products like Eagle Rare, Blanton's, EH Taylor, etc. There was a time not too many years ago where you could walk into a well stocked liquor store just about anywhere and pick up those for retail. I'll be very happy when that becomes the case again. The bad thing with a shrinking market is that some of the craft distilleries won't survive. That's unfortunate because there are some making amazing whiskey. If you think about the time delay for aging (generally a min of 4 years) it takes a lot of working capital to run a bourbon distillery. |
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Just yesterday I saw that the local chain grocery store had the following in stock: Buffalo Trace Baby Saz Elijah Craig Toasted J.D. Barrel Proof Heaven Hill BIB They've had the first two for a while, but the H.H., E.C. and J.D. are new additions. For consumers, this is great news. I think this is only the beginning of increased availability. The amount of whiskey laid down right now in Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee alone is staggering. |
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Originally Posted By LarMoeCur: If you have a favorite Mezcal or Tequila you had better stock up on it. Mezcal is up 51%! Ouch! Bottles are now being allocated. Unfortunately, the bourbon secondary market hasn't shown it yet. But barrel prices are down with almost every major distillery. I've heard MGP is letting juice go for 50-70% less then a two years ago. Sounds like, we need to pool our money and buy a few barrels for an AFCOM Bottle Drop. Who want to buy the correct licenses? We will also need tasters to blend the barrels but that's the fun part! Brown-Foreman has announced about 200 layoffs. Yes, from the producer end the bubble has burst. We'll see how long it takes to trickle down to the retail market. For now I'll just enjoy the rest of my dry January. I've still got plenty of bottles on the shelf for the next few months but I doubt I'll be drinking as much as I was before the self-imposed prohibition. |
Larueminati and founder emeritus, Knights of Leander
Proud supporter of Team Ranstad
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"Every time a Garand ejects its clip an angel gets its wings." RIP, I-M-A-WMD
Proud supporter of Team Ranstad
Tennessee Squire
"Every time a Garand ejects its clip an angel gets its wings." RIP, I-M-A-WMD
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Originally Posted By leemozoid: Brown-Foreman has announced about 200 layoffs. Yes, from the producer end the bubble has burst. We'll see how long it takes to trickle down to the retail market. For now I'll just enjoy the rest of my dry January. I've still got plenty of bottles on the shelf for the next few months but I doubt I'll be drinking as much as I was before the self-imposed prohibition. Originally Posted By leemozoid: Originally Posted By LarMoeCur: If you have a favorite Mezcal or Tequila you had better stock up on it. Mezcal is up 51%! Ouch! Bottles are now being allocated. Unfortunately, the bourbon secondary market hasn't shown it yet. But barrel prices are down with almost every major distillery. I've heard MGP is letting juice go for 50-70% less then a two years ago. Sounds like, we need to pool our money and buy a few barrels for an AFCOM Bottle Drop. Who want to buy the correct licenses? We will also need tasters to blend the barrels but that's the fun part! Brown-Foreman has announced about 200 layoffs. Yes, from the producer end the bubble has burst. We'll see how long it takes to trickle down to the retail market. For now I'll just enjoy the rest of my dry January. I've still got plenty of bottles on the shelf for the next few months but I doubt I'll be drinking as much as I was before the self-imposed prohibition. Their layoffs were from their cooperage closure iirc. |
"Some people have issues. Sounds like he signed up for an entire subscription." ~Brohawk
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Arfcom St Jude Mafia 3 years
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Proud member of Team Ranstad.
Arfcom St Jude Mafia 3 years
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Opportunity knocked but I was in the shower.
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Originally Posted By d16man: Their layoffs were from their cooperage closure iirc. Some but not all. |
Larueminati and founder emeritus, Knights of Leander
Proud supporter of Team Ranstad
Tennessee Squire
"Every time a Garand ejects its clip an angel gets its wings." RIP, I-M-A-WMD
Proud supporter of Team Ranstad
Tennessee Squire
"Every time a Garand ejects its clip an angel gets its wings." RIP, I-M-A-WMD
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Originally Posted By Alaskagrown: This is supposedly a store in Canada... https://i.imgur.com/zWOJgYk.jpeg lol This is the only Canadian whiskey I’ve found that I like….. 
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Alabama: That the great, general and essential principles of liberty and free government may be recognized and established, we declare....That every citizen has a right to bear arms in defense of himself and the state. (Art. I, § 26)
| I gave up going out hunting awhile ago. I have a bunch of nice bottles and found that for the most part, my favorites are ones that are readily available in my area already (WT, Bakers, Knob Creek, Woodford DO, Old Forester, higher end JD, and Stranahans) |
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Originally Posted By Kiltakaze: I gave up going out hunting awhile ago. I have a bunch of nice bottles and found that for the most part, my favorites are ones that are readily available in my area already (WT, Bakers, Knob Creek, Woodford DO, Old Forester, higher end JD, and Stranahans) Jack Daniels is producing some of the best whiskies on the planet the last 3-years or so. Affordable and available. |
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Originally Posted By bondservant2: Jack Daniels is producing some of the best whiskies on the planet the last 3-years or so. Affordable and available. Originally Posted By bondservant2: Originally Posted By Kiltakaze: I gave up going out hunting awhile ago. I have a bunch of nice bottles and found that for the most part, my favorites are ones that are readily available in my area already (WT, Bakers, Knob Creek, Woodford DO, Old Forester, higher end JD, and Stranahans) Jack Daniels is producing some of the best whiskies on the planet the last 3-years or so. Affordable and available. Absolutely. They’re killing it. I host tastings at my place now and then and like to throw JD bonded in there just to blow minds |
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Originally Posted By Kiltakaze: Absolutely. They’re killing it. I host tastings at my place now and then and like to throw JD bonded in there just to blow minds Originally Posted By Kiltakaze: Originally Posted By bondservant2: Originally Posted By Kiltakaze: I gave up going out hunting awhile ago. I have a bunch of nice bottles and found that for the most part, my favorites are ones that are readily available in my area already (WT, Bakers, Knob Creek, Woodford DO, Old Forester, higher end JD, and Stranahans) Jack Daniels is producing some of the best whiskies on the planet the last 3-years or so. Affordable and available. Absolutely. They’re killing it. I host tastings at my place now and then and like to throw JD bonded in there just to blow minds That JD Triple Mash is another sleeper also. Damn good for $35. |
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Originally Posted By imq707s: I have a buddy who's a huge crazy bourbon nut. He's been telling me for a while now that the bourbon market is crashing......I trust him. Between allocations and the insanity of the secondary market, a lot of people got turned off. Plus gen Z seems to be a clear liquor generation |
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I don't know about popped, but it has definitely changed. Was in a local grocery store in WI (Piggly Wiggly) and they had a bottle of Woodford Reserve Batch Proof for sale. Been seeing these for the last several months in various places where they were never before. (About $150) Plus the grocery store is now even carrying some Old Forester 1910 and 1920, and some Midwinters Dram. (Among others) Also saw online George T Stagg for $799.99, where it was usually $1799.99. Plus a bunch of others that had significant price reductions. Hopefully the hipsters have moved on to something else they consider cool and we can get some good prices back. |
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I saw this photo on Facebook today. I don’t know what the prices were but I’m sure they pretty steep. I also saw similar quantities at another store recently and while prices were a good bit over retail they weren’t up in the ridiculous level. These are things that I haven’t seen just sitting on a shelf locally in quite some time. I’m hoping that it is a sign that things might get better in the not too distant future. Attached File |
“Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.”
| I'm in 3 clubs. Picks are where it's at. I don't even chase allocated bottles anymore. |
"Some people have issues. Sounds like he signed up for an entire subscription." ~Brohawk
Proud member of Team Ranstad.
Arfcom St Jude Mafia 3 years
Arfcom callsign: trenchfoot
Proud member of Team Ranstad.
Arfcom St Jude Mafia 3 years
Arfcom callsign: trenchfoot
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Originally Posted By d16man: I'm in 3 clubs. Picks are where it's at. I don't even chase allocated bottles anymore. Lots of good picks around here but some of those sell out really quick. Almost as fast as allocated bottles. I’ve pretty much given up on chasing stuff also. There’s lots of good whiskey that’s readily available at reasonable prices. Plus now that me and my wife are both retired my whiskey budget isn’t what it used to be. |
“Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.”
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Originally Posted By TN-MadDog: Lots of good picks around here but some of those sell out really quick. Almost as fast as allocated bottles. I’ve pretty much given up on chasing stuff also. There’s lots of good whiskey that’s readily available at reasonable prices. Plus now that me and my wife are both retired my whiskey budget isn’t what it used to be. Originally Posted By TN-MadDog: Originally Posted By d16man: I'm in 3 clubs. Picks are where it's at. I don't even chase allocated bottles anymore. Lots of good picks around here but some of those sell out really quick. Almost as fast as allocated bottles. I’ve pretty much given up on chasing stuff also. There’s lots of good whiskey that’s readily available at reasonable prices. Plus now that me and my wife are both retired my whiskey budget isn’t what it used to be. 101, Rare Breed, Bardstown, New Riff, Rittenhouse.....lots of good less than $50 bottles that are fantastic. |
"Some people have issues. Sounds like he signed up for an entire subscription." ~Brohawk
Proud member of Team Ranstad.
Arfcom St Jude Mafia 3 years
Arfcom callsign: trenchfoot
Proud member of Team Ranstad.
Arfcom St Jude Mafia 3 years
Arfcom callsign: trenchfoot
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Originally Posted By d16man: 101, Rare Breed, Bardstown, New Riff, Rittenhouse.....lots of good less than $50 bottles that are fantastic. 101, Rare Breed, and New Riff bib are some of my standards. I also like Makers cask strength when I can find it at a good price. I really wish EH Tayler small batch would become readily available again for under $50. I sure miss the days when I could get it for $39.99 |
“Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.”
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Originally Posted By TN-MadDog: 101, Rare Breed, and New Riff bib are some of my standards. I also like Makers cask strength when I can find it at a good price. I really wish EH Tayler small batch would become readily available again for under $50. I sure miss the days when I could get it for $39.99 Originally Posted By TN-MadDog: Originally Posted By d16man: 101, Rare Breed, Bardstown, New Riff, Rittenhouse.....lots of good less than $50 bottles that are fantastic. 101, Rare Breed, and New Riff bib are some of my standards. I also like Makers cask strength when I can find it at a good price. I really wish EH Tayler small batch would become readily available again for under $50. I sure miss the days when I could get it for $39.99 These for sure. There are great bourbons sitting in the shelf while people stand in line waiting to buy a few bottles that have an awesome marketing team behind them. Secondary pricing will be the death of this craze. Are you really paying hundreds of dollars for 1/5 of a gallon of fermented grain and water? The one good thing that has happened is Jack Daniels has started releasing some awesome varieties of their whiskey. If you think it’s just Old No 7, you are mistaken. They are killing it with their new bottles. |
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Originally Posted By TN-MadDog: 101, Rare Breed, and New Riff bib are some of my standards. I also like Makers cask strength when I can find it at a good price. I really wish EH Tayler small batch would become readily available again for under $50. I sure miss the days when I could get it for $39.99 Someone posted eht small batch at $48 in his local Costco, and it wasn't moving fast. Of course we never see bottles like that in ours. I think the pendulum is swinging back, though. I'm seeing tons of previous unobtanium at the small shops that still charge secondary. Stuff even they didn't have on hand last year. I'm done buying for myself for the most part, I'll probably never drink everything I have. My wife keeps buying for special occasions, though, I'm tough to shop for, apparently. |
Alabama: That the great, general and essential principles of liberty and free government may be recognized and established, we declare....That every citizen has a right to bear arms in defense of himself and the state. (Art. I, § 26)
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Took me awhile, but am now beginning the second round…. Attached File |
VCDL
VFW Gold Legacy
2ID Life, 17INF Life, Blackhorse Life
VFW Gold Legacy
2ID Life, 17INF Life, Blackhorse Life
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I'm new to the bourbon scene but in the past year or so of my involvement, Weller Special Reserve has pretty much become a shelf staple in all of the stores around here. Other Buffalo Trace products are still unobtanium, with the exception of Buffalo Trace, which is rare and secondary market priced. I have an unopened bottle but prefer higher proof bourbons, so it will be a long time before I buy another. For me, the only allocated bourbon I've tried that I consider to be worth some effort to obtain is John J. Bowman. I'm still working toward a bottle of Weller Antique, but after that, I'm probably done chasing the allocated stuff (other than J.J. Bowman). Blanton's was a huge disappointment but no regret about buying it, when I finally found it. |
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Buffalo Trace just announced that they are releasing a 100 proof version of Sazerac Rye at a price point of $30/Liter. I received photos from friend today of two locations in Springfield, MO that had all three bottle sizes in multiple cases stacked with the 1.75L priced at $45-50. I myself have been able to buy multiple store pick BT bottles in the last two weeks from two stores at $32/750 ml. I would not say that the bubble has burst, but the market is definitely softening. And these came in the mail Saturday from a California retailer. The BT were $22/750 and the ER were $50. 
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Larueminati and founder emeritus, Knights of Leander
Proud supporter of Team Ranstad
Tennessee Squire and Maker's Mark Ambassador
"Every time a Garand ejects its clip an angel gets its wings." RIP, I-M-A-WMD
Proud supporter of Team Ranstad
Tennessee Squire and Maker's Mark Ambassador
"Every time a Garand ejects its clip an angel gets its wings." RIP, I-M-A-WMD
|
Originally Posted By : Took me awhile, but am now beginning the second round…. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/57358/IMG_0033_jpeg-3581336.JPG @bundeswehrvet We make free display staves for those, so send in a set to the gift shop if you want one send back to you with your corks set in it. My stave crew is only 3000 behind schedule since the flood… 
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| I think we can safely say that with this last week's announcement of the Beam distillery's shutting down its main operations for a year that there is a sufficiency of bourbon in rickhouses aging. The bubble hasn't popped. It's blowed the fuck up. |
Proud supporter of Team Ranstad
Tennessee Squire and Maker's Mark Ambassador
"Every time a Garand ejects its clip an angel gets its wings." RIP, I-M-A-WMD
Tennessee Squire and Maker's Mark Ambassador
"Every time a Garand ejects its clip an angel gets its wings." RIP, I-M-A-WMD
| Wouldn't know there was a "bubble" if not for the internet. My usual Knob Creek and occasional forays into Makers Mark, Four Roses, Woodford Reserve, or what not have been drama free for decades. |
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Modern life is one steep, perpetual tax on the mathematically impaired
Modern life is one steep, perpetual tax on the mathematically impaired
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Originally Posted By TN-MadDog: When I see things like EH Taylor, Weller 107, and ET Lee sitting on the shelf at normal retail price I'll believe it. The most we see around here is Weller Special Reserve. Can't even find Buffalo Trace, except for a few stores with ridiculous prices. |
Pour over coffee is best coffee.
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Originally Posted By bondservant2: Apparently I lied about being over my FOMO...just over-paid on a few bottles of A.S. Bowman cask strength.. Although I doubt if I'd ever see it again in the wild. |
Pour over coffee is best coffee.