Foxtrot08 makes an oil thread! (Page 159 of 160)
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Originally Posted By xd341: but the price issue for diesel and jet isn't crude price or availability is it? at least in this country. It's refining capacity, we ain't got enough. Other refineries around the world can't get crude and therfor can't make distillates, so the global market is very tight. But our crude situation isn't the problem....right? Our crude situation isn’t a problem yet.™️ Right now the global distillate and thus base oil market are completely fucked. Everyone is relying on the U.S. and we don’t have enough refinery capacity. Plus it’s turn around season. So far we are fortunate not to have a bad hurricane season. It’s been super quiet and we are at peak season right now. |
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Originally Posted By bondservant2: Keep us posted if / when you can. Originally Posted By bondservant2: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Korean refineries may be in a bit of trouble now. Bunch of Sunday news that I can’t confirm yet. Keep us posted if / when you can. I’m being more vague in my posts. I don’t want to end up on X / Twitter again. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
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Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
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Originally Posted By boolzi: What’s the use of being oil independent if we still pay global price AND we keep other countries equally in oil. They say we have plenty and won’t run out. Well, as long as we do so will all the other countries obviously. Our companies make the money rather than China |
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Originally Posted By boolzi: What’s the use of being oil independent if we still pay global price AND we keep other countries equally in oil. They say we have plenty and won’t run out. Well, as long as we do so will all the other countries obviously. We don’t have a national oil company. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
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Originally Posted By boolzi: What’s the use of being oil independent if we still pay global price AND we keep other countries equally in oil. They say we have plenty and won’t run out. Well, as long as we do so will all the other countries obviously. keep the money circulating as petrodollar. |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: We don’t have a national oil company. Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By boolzi: What’s the use of being oil independent if we still pay global price AND we keep other countries equally in oil. They say we have plenty and won’t run out. Well, as long as we do so will all the other countries obviously. We don’t have a national oil company. 100% understand. It’s was more towards the mindset of Trump and people claiming “we” have plenty of oil. |
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Originally Posted By mikNtx: keep the money circulating as petrodollar. Originally Posted By mikNtx: Originally Posted By boolzi: What’s the use of being oil independent if we still pay global price AND we keep other countries equally in oil. They say we have plenty and won’t run out. Well, as long as we do so will all the other countries obviously. keep the money circulating as petrodollar. Good point, if it stays that way. Didn’t Pakistan recently bypass it. |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Our crude situation isn't a problem yet. Right now the global distillate and thus base oil market are completely fucked. Everyone is relying on the U.S. and we don't have enough refinery capacity. Plus it's turn around season. So far we are fortunate not to have a bad hurricane season. It's been super quiet and we are at peak season right now. |
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Originally Posted By Saker13: Ouch. 87 was $3.69 at Costco yesterday. Thankfully I won't have to fill up for another couple of weeks. I don't make many good decisions, but trading in a 24 mpg, 16 yo vehicle in early march for a 45 mpg vehicle may be one of my outliers  $3.99 this afternoon Attached File |
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I thought I was covered for 22 cans, but the NFAids is a bitch when it mutates - themagikbullet
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Originally Posted By xd341: thank God for the El Nino. might get breezy on the east coast this week but the gulf is quiet |
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Originally Posted By TheLASwamp: Yeah, the rest of the season should be very quiet. When I saw that we were going to have an El Nino storm season, I knew then it was very unlikely we'd see anything serious on the Gulf coast this year. El Nino summers tend to be very hot, very dry, and with higher barometric pressure that pushes hurricanes away. We had such a summer back in 2022. Like now, we were well into September with temperatures at or near 100F. It didn't feel like that summer was ever going to end.  and we might have a nor'easter by the end of the week. its not boring anyway. |
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Originally Posted By BeaterHonda: $3.99 this afternoon https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/184182/IMG_4616_jpeg-3830423.JPG |
Award: 24/365 Most likely to be an appendix.
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"Dealing with Congress is like trying to have an adult conversation about the credit card with your alcoholic bi-polar Ukranian import wife."
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Originally Posted By Dopple: And that's only 85... Our 87 around here is $4.29+ now, 93 is about $1 more. 90 E0 is about the same as 93. Regular around here is $4.60 or so and premium is over $5 per gallon. Diesel is $6.70 On the plus side it appears that futures are down for the 4th day in a row hovering around the low $90’s, for what that’s worth. |
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Originally Posted By 4FishLimit: Regular around here is $4.60 or so and premium is over $5 per gallon. Diesel is $6.70 On the plus side it appears that futures are down for the 4th day in a row hovering around the low $90's, for what that's worth. |
Award: 24/365 Most likely to be an appendix.
"Dealing with Congress is like trying to have an adult conversation about the credit card with your alcoholic bi-polar Ukranian import wife."
"Dealing with Congress is like trying to have an adult conversation about the credit card with your alcoholic bi-polar Ukranian import wife."
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Originally Posted By 2JokersWild: So much this. We're getting ready to move into a much larger place in Oct. I'm already brainstorming up a noticable addition to the food store...... Originally Posted By 2JokersWild: Originally Posted By stgdz: While it's been pointed out that we prepared for the next two to three oil changes and some did more than that, this a micro level effect. At the macro level when it goes beyond that point (2 years) oil changes will be the least of our worries in that macro madmax landscape. Agreed at the macro level I don't know where this ends. Well I have an idea as I commented on the mad.max scenario but I think we have a pretty good chance of blowing rite past a recession. Seems like a lot of stars are aligning for something worse than that. |
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Probably not the best thread for this, but it might help some guys out My wife stacks coupons at Kroger and gets some impressive monthly discounts at the adjacent gas station. Last month I got $.60 off a gallon of diesel, and got the full 35g in to my truck. Usually more like $.20/gallon though. |
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Is the biggest hit on diesel the refinery switchover at the moment? I’ve got some board members that are getting jumpy about diesel future availability. My comments so far are if diesel is unavailable, we are screwed short and long term. |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: This has turned into a generally anything petroleum related thread. So it’s fine. Keeps the rest of the forum clean. Oil questions will be answered. OK Thanks, I appreciate that HDEO Question: I am in Texas and have a 2026 F250 with the 6.7. The oil cap says 10W-30 & 5W-40, and even before this mess stores down here just do not stock either of those. Maybe a few small jugs of Rotella, but nothing in Delo or Delvac. The shelves are full of 15W-40 from qt bottles to 5g buckets. I know that if it meets Ford spec it meets Ford spec, and that 15W-40 is not recommended for below freezing or 20*. But, Texas. But am I really missing anything by not ordering in some 10W-30, and just running the 15W-40 Delvac, Delvac Extreme, or Delo XSP I stocked up on? Fuel economy is referenced, but real world numbers I can find say 3% improvement is optimistic. I care most about longevity. Ford approved oil sheet I reference: WSS-M2C171-F1 sheet Thank you |
Lit Low Ready, LLC
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Originally Posted By compuvette: Is the biggest hit on diesel the refinery switchover at the moment? I’ve got some board members that are getting jumpy about diesel future availability. My comments so far are if diesel is unavailable, we are screwed short and long term. its a cocktail and is all publicly available information. Diesel pricing has been driven by a confluence of reduced global and U.S. refining capacity and arbitrage. Ukraine hitting Russian refineries, U.S. closures basically removed significant capacity. Arbitrage in Europe, some parts of Asia, Latin America incentivizes refiners particularly US refiners to export rather than supply domestically. Turnarounds and refinery disruptions like ExxonMobil in Joliet create short term availability gaps. There are some big turnarounds planned in Q1 2027 which will constrain the supply further. In other words, its only going to get worse but YMMV dependent on where you are. |
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Originally Posted By Dopple: Futures don't include the cost of delivery, which is what's really upping the delivered cost of the oil. Originally Posted By Dopple: Originally Posted By 4FishLimit: Regular around here is $4.60 or so and premium is over $5 per gallon. Diesel is $6.70 On the plus side it appears that futures are down for the 4th day in a row hovering around the low $90's, for what that's worth. True, but seeing the futures $$$ go down gives some semblance of hope
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Hello neighbor!
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5.18 for 87 at the no name station here, 5.25 for 87 at Shell and Sinclair. |
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Originally Posted By sitdwnandhngon: My grandpa said he was quoted $6.10 for a current contract price on heating oil. That's crazy. There's going to be a lot of cold people this winter. Long johns and sweaters will be popular Christmas gifts this year. |
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Originally Posted By teamr2: Do you sell oil that would be compatible with Yamaha outboard engines that are under factory warranty? If so could you ship a pallet to Seattle for the barge to Alaska? Yes. And yes. Mystik Marine 10w40. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
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Originally Posted By compuvette: Is the biggest hit on diesel the refinery switchover at the moment? I’ve got some board members that are getting jumpy about diesel future availability. My comments so far are if diesel is unavailable, we are screwed short and long term. Distillates don’t really switch the same way gasoline blends do. Right now, there’s just a lack of refining capacity, for distillates. Thus the global demand is driving the price. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
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Originally Posted By TexCorriente: OK Thanks, I appreciate that HDEO Question: I am in Texas and have a 2026 F250 with the 6.7. The oil cap says 10W-30 & 5W-40, and even before this mess stores down here just do not stock either of those. Maybe a few small jugs of Rotella, but nothing in Delo or Delvac. The shelves are full of 15W-40 from qt bottles to 5g buckets. I know that if it meets Ford spec it meets Ford spec, and that 15W-40 is not recommended for below freezing or 20*. But, Texas. But am I really missing anything by not ordering in some 10W-30, and just running the 15W-40 Delvac, Delvac Extreme, or Delo XSP I stocked up on? Fuel economy is referenced, but real world numbers I can find say 3% improvement is optimistic. I care most about longevity. Ford approved oil sheet I reference: WSS-M2C171-F1 sheet Thank you Originally Posted By TexCorriente: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: This has turned into a generally anything petroleum related thread. So it’s fine. Keeps the rest of the forum clean. Oil questions will be answered. OK Thanks, I appreciate that HDEO Question: I am in Texas and have a 2026 F250 with the 6.7. The oil cap says 10W-30 & 5W-40, and even before this mess stores down here just do not stock either of those. Maybe a few small jugs of Rotella, but nothing in Delo or Delvac. The shelves are full of 15W-40 from qt bottles to 5g buckets. I know that if it meets Ford spec it meets Ford spec, and that 15W-40 is not recommended for below freezing or 20*. But, Texas. But am I really missing anything by not ordering in some 10W-30, and just running the 15W-40 Delvac, Delvac Extreme, or Delo XSP I stocked up on? Fuel economy is referenced, but real world numbers I can find say 3% improvement is optimistic. I care most about longevity. Ford approved oil sheet I reference: WSS-M2C171-F1 sheet Thank you Real world fuel economy differences between a synthetic blend 15w40 and a 10w30 are under .5%. It depends on your driving conditions more than anything if you can really judge it. If you can’t find a good syn blend 10w30. Just run 15w40. Heck, most people run 15w40 anyways. So I’d run the 15w40 you have. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
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Originally Posted By hanker71: Mr foxTrot..im just wanting to know if mobile 1 is still good oil for a 6k interval on a chevy 6.6 without afm..thats what my local garage swears by. Mobil 1 is basically the standard that all other oils have to meet or exceed. So yeah, there’s not many Mobil products I’ll really go “ehh.” And their passenger car line is certainly fine. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Distillates don't really switch the same way gasoline blends do. Right now, there's just a lack of refining capacity, for distillates. Thus the global demand is driving the price. |
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Originally Posted By xd341: Huh, I didn't know that. No big turn around required for winter diesel? Just stripping as much wax out as they can? Originally Posted By xd341: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Distillates don't really switch the same way gasoline blends do. Right now, there's just a lack of refining capacity, for distillates. Thus the global demand is driving the price. So any “blend” change isn’t dramatic like gasoline. They may use more cold flow improvers, which are blended in after refining. Or they may blend #1 into #2, so that they can meet the cold filter plug points and such the region generally needs. It’s less of a regulatory thing. More fitting the region they sell fuel in. If that makes sense. As the catalysts age and get towards replacement time. The refiner may need to use more additive or blend it more with #1 to meet published specifications. That being said. If they did a fresh catalyst replacement and just came out of a turn around, they may be making awesome fuel with a CFPP of like -52f. So there’s a few factors going on. But it’s not as regulatory driven as gasoline where there’s like 52 different distinctive blends. And a summer / winter blend. |
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Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
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Also a lot of this driven by the refinery and what other products they make. As well as the crude sources they use. So a plant like marathon canton, which is primarily an asphalt plant. They can off load all the waxes, heavy ends, etc. into the asphalt because no one cares. Plus they use alot of regional crude which is generally, lower wax. Because it’s a lighter crude source. Ergon, which uses generally the same crude as marathon canton. The moment it gets like 10f. People have filter problems. Ergon is a base oil plant. They make base oils and bright stock. A lot of base oils and bright stock. Diesel is a secondary product for them, not a primary product. They don’t want to off load that wax into the base oils, they don’t make enough asphalt to put in there. So it just sorta lives in the diesel fuel. Super high cetane fuel. Literally hitting into the 60 cetane range from the refinery. But sucks in the winter. Great in the summer. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: So any “blend” change isn’t dramatic like gasoline. They may use more cold flow improvers, which are blended in after refining. Or they may blend #1 into #2, so that they can meet the cold filter plug points and such the region generally needs. It’s less of a regulatory thing. More fitting the region they sell fuel in. If that makes sense. As the catalysts age and get towards replacement time. The refiner may need to use more additive or blend it more with #1 to meet published specifications. That being said. If they did a fresh catalyst replacement and just came out of a turn around, they may be making awesome fuel with a CFPP of like -52f. So there’s a few factors going on. But it’s not as regulatory driven as gasoline where there’s like 52 different distinctive blends. And a summer / winter blend. Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By xd341: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Distillates don't really switch the same way gasoline blends do. Right now, there's just a lack of refining capacity, for distillates. Thus the global demand is driving the price. So any “blend” change isn’t dramatic like gasoline. They may use more cold flow improvers, which are blended in after refining. Or they may blend #1 into #2, so that they can meet the cold filter plug points and such the region generally needs. It’s less of a regulatory thing. More fitting the region they sell fuel in. If that makes sense. As the catalysts age and get towards replacement time. The refiner may need to use more additive or blend it more with #1 to meet published specifications. That being said. If they did a fresh catalyst replacement and just came out of a turn around, they may be making awesome fuel with a CFPP of like -52f. So there’s a few factors going on. But it’s not as regulatory driven as gasoline where there’s like 52 different distinctive blends. And a summer / winter blend. The above is something the feds should really put their foot down and cut to a mandated dozen at most. [different octanes and ugh, ethanol blends.] |
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I'm getting down to the last box, the others have all been destroyed...
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Originally Posted By stgdz: So what is "the spread" and "cracking" when it comes to diesel production. I've seen it mentioned a few times. The “crack spread” simply described in other terms is gross profit. Refiners just use the term crack spread. So your “typical” US refiner has a 3:2:1 crack spread. Meaning out of 3 barrels of crude, you’ll get 2 barrels of gasoline and 1 barrel of distillate. (Diesel / kerosene / jet fuel.) So you add up the wholesale traded price of 2 barrels gasoline and 1 barrel of distillates. Then subtract the traded price of 3 barrels of crude. This will give you a very rough crack spread. Mind you, this is extremely rough. Because refineries in the U.S. make other products, have refinery gains, etc. but, its a good rough estimate. You can also have 5:3:2 or you could uno reverse it and do 3:1:2 if you have the right crude sources. Etc. So a rough estimate today, for a 3:2:1 spread would be $423.42, based off WTI crude pricing and Nymex RBOB and Distillate prices. They’re making about $141.14 / bbl. (42 gallons.) A year ago was $25.72 / bbl. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.