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9/22/2017 12:11:25 AM
Posted: 10/5/2005 8:29:06 PM EDT


from: http://www.kommersant.com/page.asp?idr=529&id=614878

Money from Sea Depths
// Submarines for Export

According to forecasts, in 2005 state-owned Rosoboronexport will supply overseas arms for the amount of about $5 billion -- about the same as last year ($5.1 billion). However, in 2004 about 60 percent of arms export was represented by aviation, this year about $3 billion will be attributed to the naval export items. More than half of this amount will go for supply, repair and modernization of submarines. Until this time the underwater fleet never had such large presence in the structure of Russian military export. However, without the new modern projects, Russia might not reach again such a number.

As with all spheres of the military industrial complex, the market of submarines felt a sharp decrease after the Cold War was over. For example, in the end of 1980's 60 or 70 subs were made annually around the world. Now this number does not exceed 10-15 ships per year. However, for the last five years the tendency started to change and world production of the non-nuclear powered subs started to grow again due to large orders from countries of the Asian-Pacific regions.



The diesel-electric submarine "St-Petersburg" is getting ready to be put on the water in Admiralty Shipyards. The new sub was developed by the design company Rubin.

According to American company Forecast International, the market hit absolute minimum in 2001, when in the next 10 years it was expected to build only 74 subs with the total cost of $60.5 billion. However, this year the prognosis of the Forecast International became much more optimistic: 96 subs will be ready between 2005 and 2014 and total cost would be $77 billion.



The submarine is being built in the state-owned enterprise Admiralty Shipyards, St-Petersburg. This sub was ordered by Chinese navy.

The submarine market has two main segments. First -- the subs with nuclear power plants, which are part of the fleets of only five countries: Russia, USA, Great Britain, France and China. It is possible that in the next 10-15 years the nuclear subs will be purchased or built by India, and maybe Brazil. According to forecasts, in next 10 years there would be 22 attack subs with nuclear power plants produced. Moreover, the US and Russia are building the submarines with nuclear reactors and nuclear ballistic missiles. However, only three ships like this would be built in next 10 years with total cost of $9 billion. For that reason, we can talk mostly about the market of non-nuclear powered subs. Because of the significant price difference between these two categories of subs, the majority of countries can allow themselves to buy only non-nuclear powered submarines. Currently, there are about 240 of non-nuclear subs serving in 42 fleets all over the world.The

Builders and Exporters



The submarines of Varshavyanka-type in one of the bays of Pacific Ocean.

Only 18 countries are building non-nuclear subs: Germany, France, Spain, Russia, Sweden, Netherlands, China, Japan, Italy, Turkey, Brazil, India, Pakistan, Iran, North Korea and Australia. Only the first eight countries on the list design their own subs - the rest build the ships under the license. This fact shows significant monopolization of the world market and a small number of the suppliers. There are three major builders-suppliers in this category: Germany with its German Submarine Consortium (GSC), Franco-Spanish alliance (French state owned shipbuilding company DCN united with Spanish corporation Navantia), and Russia (mostly -- St-Petersburg's Admiralty Shipyards. However, some contracts are done by Severodvinsk’s "Sevmashpredpriyatie" and Nizhny Novgorod's "Krasnoye Sormovo.")

Germany maintains the leadership position as No. 1 builder of non-nuclear subs for export since WWII. For last 40 years in West Germany there were 88 submarine built for export or licensed for the production in other countries. For instance, Italy refused to continue to build the sub of its own design and bought German project 212A with anaerobic power plant. The anaerobic drastically increase the capability of the sub by giving to the ship more speed and combat balance. The work to create non-nuclear subs with anaerobic power plants was started long time ago, but the first ships were built only in the beginning of 21st century. The first subs were German Project 212A, than 214, followed by Franco-Spanish Scorpene. It looks like Russian design companies do not have a working sample of anaerobic power plant. The German projects are used to build subs for Portugal (two), South Africa (three), Greece (three), South Korea (three), Turkey (eight) and Brazil (five).

The Franco-Spanish alliance successfully competes with Germans. On Dec. 8, 1997, the government of Chile signed the contract for the total amount of $400 million to build two subs Scorpena with diesel-electrical power plant. In 2007-2009 two Scorpena will be sold to Malaysian Navy. The Scorpene might have the record for the largest naval contract. On September 19, 2005, Indian Prime Minister Manoham Singh confirmed the earlier published decision to purchase six subs of this type for 2.4 billion Euros. One of the main reasons for the purchase of these subs by New Delhi became the anaerobic power plants.

Turkey and South Korea are also trying to become exporters of non-nuclear subs -- they intend with the help of German GSC to organize the building of the subs Project 209 for export.

Several countries are continuing to develop subs for their fleets. Navantia builds for Spanish navy four subs of new Project S-80A -- enlarged version of Scorpene. Sweden is planning to build two new subs of the Viking type.

In the same time, due to the change of military political situation in the world, the developed countries are reducing the numbers of their underwater ships. The subs of a new generation, which can accomplish more tasks, are also growing in size. For instance, Germany that had from the beginning of the 1970's 24 medium-sized subs on its navy, will have in the nearest future no more than six. However, these six will be much larger. Sweden reduced its number of subs from 12 to 6. Great Britain sold all four recently built subs of the Upholder type to Canada.

Japan continues planned already in 1960's building subs of its own design and puts in the water in average one sub per year. Iran and North Korea are building only small subs of their own design.

The circle of the third-world countries, which want to have their own submarines, is growing. For the last 10 years such countries as Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore either bought or ordered their first subs. In the nearest future, one could expect to see at least five or six new countries joining the "club." Southeast Asia is the region where most of the subs would be going. In the same time, China, while being the largest importer of submarines, also builds ships of its own design. In May and December of 2004 the shipyards Wuchang put in the water the sub of new Project 041 (type Yuan). This sub from the outside looks a lot like the Russian "Varshavyanka." That means the new sub was built with Russian participation simply "cloned."

Taiwan - historical Chinese enemy - also attempted several times to buy subs. The US offered its services hoping to renew the building of non-nuclear subs. However, so far Taiwan holds potential suppliers in uncertainty.

The increased interests in non-nuclear subs can be also explained by their increased combat capability -- especially after the appearance of the cruise missiles, which can deliver precise strikes for land targets. So far, it looks like there are no non-nuclear subs in the world armed with these missiles. However, within the next 10-15 years the non-nuclear subs armed with cruise missiles would become ordinary. Actually, the cost of the sub usually does not exceed 50 percent of the sum of the contract. The rest of the money spent for arming the sub is to install navigational and reconnaissance equipment, and the power plant itself. In this field Russian anti-ship weapons systems have no equals -- especially unique system Club-S with supersonic missile.

Russian Problems

For last two decades our country quite successfully was promoting in the world market the big sub 877E "Varshavyanka", designed by Rubin ( for Soviet Navy the subs of Project 877 were built since 1980). The fairly small price of $150-$200 million was helping also. The main clients for the sub became India and China. New Delhi in 1986-2000 bought nine subs of Project 877EKM and one of newer Project 08773. Beijing in 1992 bought two Project 877 subs, and in 1995 signed a contract for two ships of Project 636 --modified for Chinese conditions version of "Varshavyanka" (total cost of four subs - $1 billion). In May of 2002 China signed an agreement with Rosoboronexport for the amount not less than $1.6 billion for eight subs Project 636 equipped with Club-S. Five submarines are being built by Admiralty Shipyards, two by Sevmashpredpriyatie, and one by Krasnoe Sormovo. The contract should be completed by the end of 2005.

The total amount of the subs Project 877 and its modifications reached 29 ships. However, normal aging of the project might not bring anymore contracts. The fleets of India and China are interested to receive subs of the new generations and also they would like to start building their own subs on national shipyards. Because of that, the new generation subs of Project 677E "Amur" -- export version of Project 677 "Lada"- should be offered to the market in the shortest period of time. The new sub was also designed by Rubin, and the first ship is being finished now in Admiralty Shipyards for Russian Navy.

India, China, Venezuela and Algiers already expressed the interests to the subs of the Project 677E. For example, the Indian strategy of the navy building allows New Delhi to buy four more subs "Amur" even after the purchase of six Scorpenes.

According to Kommersant information, the possibility of building three or four “Amurs” for Indian order is being discussed right now in Admiralty Shipyards. While waiting for new orders, the Admiralty Shipyards is actively trying to get repair or modernization contract of the subs sold earlier abroad. "Zvezdochka" shipyard is currently fulfilling Indian contract. India and China are still remaining the main clients for these contracts.

This summer it is became known that there are negotiations are being conducted about the repair and modernization of three Iranian submarines Project 877EKM, which was sold by Russia in 1992 -1996. The repair of first sub is being made in Iranian dock by "Zvezdochka." It was considered that Admiralty Shipyards will get the contracts for another two subs. However, because of political turmoil around Iran and its nuclear program the arms supplies to this country might become a subject of embargo, and Russia risk losing the contracts.

by Mikhail Barabanov, Konstantin Lantratov

Russian Article as of Oct. 05, 2005
Link Posted: 10/5/2005 8:31:37 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/5/2005 8:33:45 PM EDT by CRC]
Are subs still useful any more besides launching nukes from beneath the waves?

And why does China need more subs when nobody sells to the Taiwan and Taiwan does not have any?

Who else are they going to fight?

CRC

Link Posted: 10/5/2005 8:34:06 PM EDT
God, I loved the cold war. It will be back on within five years.
Link Posted: 10/5/2005 8:34:34 PM EDT

Originally Posted By CRC:
Are subs still useful any more besides launching nukes from beneath the waves?




They're the best thing to hunt nuke-launching subs.

Also handy to deploy combat swimmer teams.

China's economy depends on bulk industrial exports carried by container ships.
Link Posted: 10/5/2005 8:35:23 PM EDT
And those ships come here.
Link Posted: 10/5/2005 8:37:38 PM EDT

Originally Posted By CRC:
Are subs still useful any more besides launching nukes from beneath the waves?




Laying Mines, covertly collecting intelligence, sinking ships either with Torpedos, Missiles or Mines. Our Commerce depends upon shipping. Without Shipping there would be virtually no international trade. Hence covertly laying mines outside of harbors and in shipping lanes, and sinking ships or the mere threat of sinking ships will curtail trade.

The trade may in produced goods, or in natural resources.

A Naval Blockade by Submarines can significantly effect an country's economy.
Link Posted: 10/5/2005 8:38:10 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/5/2005 8:38:35 PM EDT by raven]

Originally Posted By CRC:
And those ships come here.



Well, yeah...which is why we aren't builing those subs to interdict that trade. Good point.

But strategically and historically, land-based powers like the USSR, Germany, and now China is building subs to to even the naval advantages of their enemies. Which explains why the Chinese are building up.
Link Posted: 10/5/2005 8:39:35 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/5/2005 8:40:03 PM EDT by CRC]
I guess so.

But I don't see why Portugal and Greece need subs.

We will protec them.

Link Posted: 10/5/2005 8:42:37 PM EDT

Originally Posted By CRC:
I guess so.

But I don't see why Portugal and Greece need subs.

We will protec them.




Are you threatened by the Greek and Portuguese navies? Let 'em build their military. That is sort of what NATO was about, a coopertive alliance.
Link Posted: 10/5/2005 9:38:11 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/5/2005 9:39:31 PM EDT by eye_spy]

Originally Posted By CRC:
And why does China need more subs when nobody sells to the Taiwan and Taiwan does not have any?

Who else are they going to fight?

CRC




Does'nt Taiwan have a mutual defense agreement / treaty with the United States? Huh?
Link Posted: 10/5/2005 10:25:17 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/5/2005 10:28:55 PM EDT by raven]

Originally Posted By eye_spy:

Originally Posted By CRC:
And why does China need more subs when nobody sells to the Taiwan and Taiwan does not have any?

Who else are they going to fight?

CRC




Does'nt Taiwan have a mutual defense agreement / treaty with the United States? Huh?



No way! That would be dynamite. Or better metaphor, throwing gas on a fire.
Link Posted: 10/5/2005 10:27:26 PM EDT
China Gets New Sub, Jerod to appear at launch party. Subway, eat fresh.
Link Posted: 10/5/2005 10:31:49 PM EDT
Subs are also quite useful for intelligence gathering and anti-surface warfare.

The best weapon against a sub is another sub.

There's two kinds of ships: Submarines and Targets.
Link Posted: 10/5/2005 10:34:18 PM EDT
Interesting that the pic shows a close up of the prop...thought that was a no-no? Maybe just our subs?
Link Posted: 10/5/2005 10:37:47 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/5/2005 10:39:04 PM EDT by raven]

Originally Posted By COLE-CARBINE:
Interesting that the pic shows a close up of the prop...thought that was a no-no? Maybe just our subs?



Did you notice how the hub was shrouded?

I suppose the blade grooving to reduce cavitation is widely known by now.
Link Posted: 10/5/2005 10:37:50 PM EDT

Originally Posted By CRC:
And those ships come here.




and our money goes over there
Link Posted: 10/5/2005 10:45:51 PM EDT
I wonder....
Link Posted: 10/5/2005 10:50:17 PM EDT
Hey, that's great news!

Now the Chinese have a sub to kill their sailors with right on par with the Russian ones!

I'd put it on a 15 year timeline before this new coffin is sinking faster than Danny Bonaduce's sobriety....with some fine communist soldiers aboard.
Link Posted: 10/6/2005 6:44:28 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Stormtrooper:
China Gets New Sub, Jerod to appear at launch party. Subway, eat fresh.




You forgot the accent:


China Gets New Sub, Jelod to appeal at raunch palty. Sublay, eat flesh.
Link Posted: 10/6/2005 6:59:50 AM EDT
I wonder if Christians In Action got a spy in those Russian shipyards to install a GPS tracker in the subs before shipping them to China.
Link Posted: 10/6/2005 7:11:48 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Midnight-Sniper:
God, I loved the cold war. It will be back on within five years.



Looks like it was never really over. We just convinced ourselves we WON, packed our shit and quit playing. Truth is the other team just subbed in some new players.
Link Posted: 10/6/2005 7:19:47 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/6/2005 7:32:44 AM EDT by PAEBR332]

Originally Posted By ArmedAggie:

Originally Posted By Midnight-Sniper:
God, I loved the cold war. It will be back on within five years.



Looks like it was never really over. We just convinced ourselves we WON, packed our shit and quit playing. Truth is the other team just subbed in some new players.



That's pretty funny. We outspend the Chinese and Russian military COMBINED by a factor of 8 to 1.
Link Posted: 10/6/2005 7:23:56 AM EDT
If it's like everything else mad in China -

It won't work more than one week.
It will come packed in thin shitty carboard.
It will not include batteries.
It will be on the shelf at Walmart by Christmas.
Link Posted: 10/6/2005 7:29:51 AM EDT

Originally Posted By PAEBR332:

Originally Posted By ArmedAggie:

Originally Posted By Midnight-Sniper:
God, I loved the cold war. It will be back on within five years.



Looks like it was never really over. We just convinced ourselves we WON, packed our shit and quit playing. Truth is the other team just subbed in some new players.



That;s pretty funny. We outspend the Chinese and Russian military COMBINED by a factor of 8 to 1.



Only because we actually pay for what we get. Besides that, with union labor, we pay 10 times what they pay, if not more. You can't compare spending rates. Add to that that our spending also includes the equipment and forces we use to be the world's policeman.
Link Posted: 10/6/2005 7:31:57 AM EDT
Ya know what... all I see are targets.
Link Posted: 10/6/2005 7:32:28 AM EDT
[Last Edit: 10/6/2005 7:33:11 AM EDT by PAEBR332]

Originally Posted By ArmedAggie:

Originally Posted By PAEBR332:

Originally Posted By ArmedAggie:

Originally Posted By Midnight-Sniper:
God, I loved the cold war. It will be back on within five years.



Looks like it was never really over. We just convinced ourselves we WON, packed our shit and quit playing. Truth is the other team just subbed in some new players.



That;s pretty funny. We outspend the Chinese and Russian military COMBINED by a factor of 8 to 1.



Only because we actually pay for what we get. Besides that, with union labor, we pay 10 times what they pay, if not more. You can't compare spending rates. Add to that that our spending also includes the equipment and forces we use to be the world's policeman.



Even if you use a pricing parity model, we still outspend them by 4 to 1. Plus China has signficant numbers of troops in Tibet and other internal regions to suppress indigenous movements, the Russians have been fighing an actual war in Chechnya, etc...
Link Posted: 10/6/2005 7:33:48 AM EDT

Originally Posted By raven:

Originally Posted By COLE-CARBINE:
Interesting that the pic shows a close up of the prop...thought that was a no-no? Maybe just our subs?



Did you notice how the hub was shrouded?

I suppose the blade grooving to reduce cavitation is widely known by now.



Quite a fancy prop
Link Posted: 10/6/2005 7:40:00 AM EDT

Originally Posted By PAEBR332:

Originally Posted By ArmedAggie:

Originally Posted By PAEBR332:

Originally Posted By ArmedAggie:

Originally Posted By Midnight-Sniper:
God, I loved the cold war. It will be back on within five years.



Looks like it was never really over. We just convinced ourselves we WON, packed our shit and quit playing. Truth is the other team just subbed in some new players.



That;s pretty funny. We outspend the Chinese and Russian military COMBINED by a factor of 8 to 1.



Only because we actually pay for what we get. Besides that, with union labor, we pay 10 times what they pay, if not more. You can't compare spending rates. Add to that that our spending also includes the equipment and forces we use to be the world's policeman.



Even if you use a pricing parity model, we still outspend them by 4 to 1. Plus China has signficant numbers of troops in Tibet and other internal regions to suppress indigenous movements, the Russians have been fighing an actual war in Chechnya, etc...



You're probably right, none of those guys would ever mean us any harm. I'm sure they need these new subs to suppress monks in Tibet. I'm sure road-mobile missiles in North Korea would only ever be used for good...

I'm going back to sleep now...
Link Posted: 10/6/2005 7:42:50 AM EDT
<<yawn...>>

Sorry...can't seem to get excited.
Link Posted: 10/6/2005 7:50:02 AM EDT

Originally Posted By Bostonterrier97:

Originally Posted By CRC:
Are subs still useful any more besides launching nukes from beneath the waves?




Laying Mines, covertly collecting intelligence, sinking ships either with Torpedos, Missiles or Mines. Our Commerce depends upon shipping. Without Shipping there would be virtually no international trade. Hence covertly laying mines outside of harbors and in shipping lanes, and sinking ships or the mere threat of sinking ships will curtail trade.

The trade may in produced goods, or in natural resources.

A Naval Blockade by Submarines can significantly effect an country's economy.



Don't forget intelligence gathering... They are good at that.
Link Posted: 10/6/2005 7:50:17 AM EDT

Originally Posted By ArmedAggie:

You're probably right, none of those guys would ever mean us any harm. I'm sure they need these new subs to suppress monks in Tibet. I'm sure road-mobile missiles in North Korea would only ever be used for good...

I'm going back to sleep now...



I never said they do not mean us harm. Our military still treats them as serious threats. One of the measures of this is the fact that we spend an absolute ton more money than they do on defense.
Link Posted: 10/6/2005 8:18:03 AM EDT
Getting technongly from Russia for submarine construction or having Russia build it for you.....either way your failure rate is going to be higher than you think. Russia's sub fleet has had a terrible history of failure's and construction quality is not the best. China would mainly be interested in aquiring subs for the purpose of defense from the US Navy should a conflict arise over Taiwan.
Link Posted: 10/6/2005 8:35:33 AM EDT

Originally Posted By CRC:
Are subs still useful any more besides launching nukes from beneath the waves?

And why does China need more subs when nobody sells to the Taiwan and Taiwan does not have any?

Who else are they going to fight?

CRC




Have we forgotten how Germany nearly strangled Great Britain twice in less than 30 years, until we stepped in?
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