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Posted: 1/19/2012 4:09:44 AM EDT
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I looked on there website but couldn't find a legend for the charts. What do the blue diamonds represent? What about the grey line, is that the average sale price? Thanks.
NFA Price Guide Chart. |
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Area defined by the blue crosshatch is the highest and lowest asking prices in the range for the month.
Blue diamond average asking price for that month. Gray line, interpolated curve of monthly asking prices. Graph at bottom, number of data points in each month's average. |
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Quoted:
Area defined by the blue crosshatch is the highest and lowest asking prices in the range for the month. Blue diamond average asking price for that month. Gray line, interpolated curve of monthly asking prices. Graph at bottom, number of data points in each month's average. Awesome, thanks Circuits! 
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Circuits- it appears that the charts are based on a blend of asking prices and actual sales, instead of just asking prices. Glad you addressed this, as until I looked I presumed it was based on actual sales with no weight given to ask. I based this erroneous opinion on the sample groups in the graphs on the left seeming relatively small in many cases compared to what one can commonly find being offered for sale. From their web page:
"Price data comes from many different sources and is a combination of both asking and selling price from Internet boards, many dealer web sites and table displays from gun shows throughout the country. Selling prices are actual sales from web auction sites, nationwide live auctions and sales from machine gun dealers. Many dealers provide sale prices, knowing it's easier to sell to informed buyers. The debate over asking/selling price is legendary and goes on and on . The usefulness of these charts is they show an average within a range of values and the historical trends in value. As the number of samples increases, the average becomes more useful, so popular models like MACS, Uzis, M16s are well represented in value while a M240B may not be...." |
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Quoted:
Circuits- it appears that the charts are based on a blend of asking prices and actual sales, instead of just asking prices. Glad you addressed this, as until I looked I presumed it was based on actual sales with no weight given to ask. I based this erroneous opinion on the sample groups in the graphs on the left seeming relatively small in many cases compared to what one can commonly find being offered for sale. From their web page: "Price data comes from many different sources and is a combination of both asking and selling price from Internet boards, many dealer web sites and table displays from gun shows throughout the country. Selling prices are actual sales from web auction sites, nationwide live auctions and sales from machine gun dealers. Many dealers provide sale prices, knowing it's easier to sell to informed buyers. The debate over asking/selling price is legendary and goes on and on . The usefulness of these charts is they show an average within a range of values and the historical trends in value. As the number of samples increases, the average becomes more useful, so popular models like MACS, Uzis, M16s are well represented in value while a M240B may not be...." To further elaborate, the list is of advertised prices, without distinction as to what has actually sold. By that criteria, an average price JUMP in the graph, corresponding to a single-unit decrease in the sample size would be the best indicator that an item actually sold, and below the average price. While a DROP in the graph, corresponding to a single-unit decrease might mean one sold above the average. Then again, it could just mean that the owner stopped listing it. The only source for actual completed, confirmed sales I know of is the "completed auctions" search at gunbroker, where a firearm with one or more bids that closed above the reserve can usually be presumed to have sold. Sometimes sellers will leave the price up, with an SPF notice, too, which helps find the actual selling prices. |
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Kind of tangential, but...
I wonder if a self-reporting sales aggregator website would get much traction? Sort of like NFAtracker, except where users report what they bought and what they paid. Due to an obvious need for anonymity, it wouldn't be hard for some to skew the data with false reports of sugarplum-dream sales prices...but I'd think it might be more useful than a compilation of asking prices in which (likely) less than half equal an actual sale price. All it takes for an ask price compilation to go out of whack is including polling of just a few dealers who price off the charts (most here know who they are). Average in a half-dozen $20k MP-5s from one guy and a half-dozen $25k M16A1s from another, plus some $9k Uzis, and you screw a small sample all to hell. |
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