DCBourone "A Post-Apocalyptic Story"--"The Soldier's Son" Published/Available Jan. 17 (Page 86 of 89)
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DFarm--if a/your local case is not adapting well to AI it is in competition with those who will. I cannot persuade anyone on this/any forum. My only hope is that some here will go to original source material/projections from individuals/companies that are designing these tools. Their track record mobile phones/electric cars/space tech/LLM/s is pretty good. I am pointing to their projections. |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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Originally Posted By DFARM: Old guys who's reaction times aren't what they used to be are probably the largest group of Corvette owners. Lol That sounds like a great time. And that describes me pretty well...except I *am* willing and desiring to go get training. |
Happiness=UPS+ORMD
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
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Originally Posted By stimpsonjcat: And that describes me pretty well...except I *am* willing and desiring to go get training. Please, please don't start wearing a Corvette hat, jacket and shoes and replace the word "car" with "Corvette" in your everyday conversation. Lol Knowing how to drive is a super power. We should get driving lessons from tame racing drivers as part of driver's Ed. |
"Freedom is a messy business." - LaRue_Tactical
I am a sack of blood, held together by un-tanned leather. . .
I am a sack of blood, held together by un-tanned leather. . .
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Originally Posted By DCBourone: --Soldier's Son is now a kind of antique. The world has moved past it, for now. So-- GENERAL NOTE: Everyone here knows the words "Artificial Intelligence"--and presumably most are aware of ChatGPT/Anthropic/Perplexity/other large language models: LLM/s, etc. "Knowing the words" is insufficient to the task ahead. "Knowing the words" is what 99 percent of the literate world can manifest about any particular subject that contradicts a personal bias. If we go on the general forum, or really any forum on the net, we find millions of posts on the future of A.I./work/jobs. 99+ percent of these posters are not reading/listening to original sources/leaders/developers of AI products/services. For the last year+ the largest quotient of time in this household has been learning/adapting/following the evolution of various AI tools. You need to be aware. There is no job, including manual/bespoke, that will be unaffected within the next ten years. It is not random that Sam Altman, the leader of OpenAI/ChatGPT has been quietly certain about the future of UBI, universal basic income, since he became a public figure. I cannot persuade anyone here within this or any post. But I can give you one link, and from that link and your own searches you will, or will not, adapt to this new world. You do not have decades. You have years. If you think this is incorrect, make your argument to-- Eric Schmidt, ex google CEO, after you watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKVFNg3DEng I don't really pay a ton of attention to cutting edge tech stuff, especially once I figured out that, at least for now, chat gpt isn't skynet from the Terminator movies. I think it does have potential that was addressed in the video. "if it learns something dangerous and doesn't report that it learned that, and you don't know the questions to ask about it", also, it has the potential to accelerate development of CBRN threats from people who wouldn't otherwise be able to develop them. (Like people who hurt themselves or others trying to make things from the anarchists cookbook). It's probably my confirmation bias showing but I suspect most people here discussing this in this thread will be ok for a while, Google dude talks about it at ~34:20 in the video, II fundamentally believe that the the sort of college education 34:25 High skills task will be fine because people will work with these systems I think the systems is no different from 34:31 any other technology wave the dangerous jobs and the jobs which require very little human judgment will get replaced As an example, I listened to the video while I sat at a customer's location troubleshooting and beginning a repair on a rusty old machine. I think it's going to be a long time before SpaceX can develop a robot with enough capacity to "think" through a mechanical or electrical problem, find the source of the problem, then perform the repair safely and with minimal impact to the customer's daily operation (God help it if the customer needs the machine patched up enough to perform a task in the middle of the project) and be able to travel to customers and be cost effective enough for someone to buy one. TLDR, in my opinion, we'll probably see "drones" go rogue or some other form of "wet vs. dry" war before we see effective robot technicians. I believe we'll see some environmental whack jobs use ai to develop a virus to kill off most of humanity before either one of those though. |
"Freedom is a messy business." - LaRue_Tactical
I am a sack of blood, held together by un-tanned leather. . .
I am a sack of blood, held together by un-tanned leather. . .
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From 1984 to 1986 I owned a 1969 Mercedes 300 SEL 6.3 litre. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercedes-Benz_300_SEL_6.3 I had zero business owning that car. Some one knowledgeable here might be able to to understand this phenomena--an aspect of mechanical fuel injection--but there was no "lag" when you depressed the throttle/pedal--the car "twitched"--you could spin the tires with a tap on gravel or dust or damp pavement--I spun it out twice on the drive home from the dealer--held it at 130 for about ten minutes on a drive to Vegas and it was as steady as an anvil--90 mph felt like sixty--basically it invited a driver to constantly do stupid things at ridiculous speeds in a two ton car the size of a limousine. Replacing a brake disc was $900. It got six miles to the gallon. Tires were 240--in 1984. I sold it back to the dealer. Life expectancy in that car--for me--was not high. |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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Dfarm it is really weird to watch advocates/investors/profiteers split the difference between AI will save the world locutions and 50 percent of jobs will be gone within ten years scenarios. Clearly some jobs will survive "longer than others"--but labor like any commodity is priced at the margin--downward pressure on pricing of any kind will not be well received--if you extend the timeline another 5-10 years on full AGI incorporated in humanoid bots--that will seem pretty damned fast in twenty years-- Analogy--30 years ago the western world decided to use China<Chinese as "the robots" China is now massively over leveraged/in debt and and can no longer export its way out of debt because they can make far more stuff than the world can/will buy-- Now add more bots. To us. To China. Everywhere. Somewhere in one of these interviews Eric Schmidt in context of ten year window to AGI says "we're not ready, no one is ready"--it is not the words, but the expression on his face, he is one cool customer, but he is "concerned." So try this--I am whining about a problem--what might be a solution? Other than exceptional cases, extreme talents etc., whatever you own in the next ten years (you, your family, your children) is all/most of what you/they will ever own. Land, patents, trademarks, commodities, relationships, etc. Labor as income will be increasingly less important for capital formation...forever. |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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Addenda: if you are pessimistic/agnostic about AI/bot evolution/adoption over next ten years--make it twenty years then--an eye blink in human history. The sci fi engineered plague/death bots/etc. concerns are entirely valid-- OPenAI/ChatGPT Sam Altman has said chance of extreme negative outcomes is about 20 percent--that is pretty high. And he is not talking about AI surveillance police state dystopias/etc., he is a super lefty control freak. |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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I don’t have time for a long post right now, so I’ll try to be concise. DCBourone is 100% correct about AI. Any job that involves a human interface with a computer now has a short life span. Manual labor will follow, as robotics becomes more commoditized. You can conceptualize the issue as somewhat of a mathematic limit formula; it’s happening slowly now but will eventually happen a great amount in a big hurry. It probably won’t ever drop to zero. Humans will be needed for the foreseeable future, but that future is close enough now that we’re almost certain to see it fulfilled in this generation. The twist: this “AI” isn’t even artificial intelligence, it’s just machine learning with massive computational power and it still carries the risk discussed. If, when, the singularity happens (publicly), the world changes immensely and immediately. That is of course assuming it hasn’t already happened. |
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Here is what I have personally experienced trying to get AI/LLM to do the most basic of presales selections for the most basic of sensor devices. If the AI has fed on the internet in general, it is too confused (hallucinatory) to be useful for any search beyond a few parameters. It makes things up or guesses. If it has only been fed product-specific data, it can do very well, especially if it can properly re-run based on follow-up criteria from a competent user. It's gonna be great for our internal users to more quickly find the relevant data or parts. Does that mean AIs that feed on the internet at large will become HAL? or just..."Bonjour"?...I don't know. Likely a bit of both. |
Happiness=UPS+ORMD
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
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--CPnRn, well said and exactly. I understand people being less rather than more concerned due to the "not imminent" as in...the next year, two, three. But the builders of these tools intermittently spill the beans while they gush about positive affects, when they say the transition from now to then will be 'difficult' 'stressful' 'of course there will be some friction'-- Without exception they entirely gloss over the fundamental human instinct that "work" is a fundamental measure of personal value in a social context. "Work" is how we determine our value to others at the most fundamental and subconscious level. Here is another way of saying that there will be little or nothing for most people to do in the future: you have no value to the world around you. Here is another way of saying this/a/our AI machine does everything better than you: you don't do anything that another human will consider essential. Note that people who "retire" after "working"--presumably for decades--have already established their status, both internal and external, as valuable to others, before they go on vacation for the rest of their lives. --Stj you notation of "narrow" AI tools as useful+ relative to general is getting a lot of attention in the available literature--along with an apparent, if temporary, ceiling in performance based on limits of available/new data to process. The proposed solution is spending more time/money/research on "inference" programming/algorithms. |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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Originally Posted By stimpsonjcat: Here is what I have personally experienced trying to get AI/LLM to do the most basic of presales selections for the most basic of sensor devices. If the AI has fed on the internet in general, it is too confused (hallucinatory) to be useful for any search beyond a few parameters. It makes things up or guesses. If it has only been fed product-specific data, it can do very well, especially if it can properly re-run based on follow-up criteria from a competent user. It's gonna be great for our internal users to more quickly find the relevant data or parts. Does that mean AIs that feed on the internet at large will become HAL? or just..."Bonjour"?...I don't know. Likely a bit of both. We'll see a point where Internet based AI will be included information referenced from hallucinations from previous AI written sources. The optimistic view of the future where people are "worthless" could be that there will always be people who appreciate things that have a human touch, and people will be on some form of ubi and able to focus on arts or some other fulfilling endeavors that are appreciated by other people. The pessimistic view probably has the machines killing us off or plugging us into a simulation and using us as batteries to power robot cities. |
"Freedom is a messy business." - LaRue_Tactical
I am a sack of blood, held together by un-tanned leather. . .
I am a sack of blood, held together by un-tanned leather. . .
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Originally Posted By DCBourone: . Note that people who "retire" after "working"--presumably for decades--have already established their status, both internal and external, as valuable to others, before they go on vacation for the rest of their lives. I worry about one child, and am slightly concerned about another. I have a son whose job will undoubtedly be affected by the AI coming our way soon, a daughter who is providing a niche sales experience for well-heeled buyers that may have some disruption (maybe), and a stepdaughter who doesn't have much of a future no matter what happens with AI. |
"The right to buy weapons is the right to be free"
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Originally Posted By DCBourone: --Stj you notation of "narrow" AI tools as useful+ relative to general is getting a lot of attention in the available literature--along with an apparent, if temporary, ceiling in performance based on limits of available/new data to process. The proposed solution is spending more time/money/research on "inference" programming/algorithms. Negative. The problem very rapidly becomes the AI cannot or...it's algorithm is incapable of...telling it what data is incorrect. Thus, more data simply causes it to hallucinate/guess more quickly. This is a non-issue if you are trying to find a movie from the 80s you can't remember. This is a complete deal-breaker if it gives you engineering data that is...wrong. As humans, assuming even a modicum of discernment, we discount suspect data pretty well. The AI is left at the mercy of 1 billion idiots all asserting something as fact. It can't un-weight that without having 5 billion assert the opposite. I can do that on the first try. "infer verb in·fer in-ˈfər inferred; inferring Synonyms of infer transitive verb 1 : to derive as a conclusion from facts or premises we see smoke and infer fire —L. A. White compare imply 2 : guess, surmise your letter … allows me to infer that you are as well as ever —O. W. Holmes †1935" Any ignorant can guess...and most guessing is ignorant. |
Happiness=UPS+ORMD
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
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Very nice! I have one made in Japan. And a mini Tanto as well. |
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--Stj--negative on your negative. All your comments reference A.I. as it is in the present. Anecdotal evidence of today/s non performance for single/discrete clients is peak non relevant. The issue here is the next decade+. You show zero evidence that you are reading original pdfs/journal articles/interviews. We are supposed to believe your speculations as opposed to Dario Amodi/Anthropic, Eric Schmidt/Google+/Sam Altman OpenAI, etc., etc., etc.??? If you think their inference algorithms are the equivalent of "guessing"--over the next five years--...wtf, Stj. The most optimistic among the originators/owners believe the transition to an AI fluid economy will be very very difficult. Sam Altman has been politely saying that universal basic income will be a necessity. For years. None of his peers disagree. mniv good to see you. I have an original sterile cold steel tanto from around 1983. Probably some kind of collector item now. |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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Originally Posted By stimpsonjcat: I've upset you. I'm sorry. But yes...to your question...I don't believe the hype. Originally Posted By stimpsonjcat: Originally Posted By DCBourone: snip I've upset you. I'm sorry. But yes...to your question...I don't believe the hype. I doubt any possible upset . More like gentle chiding. All of the leaders in the field agree. All of them. More computing power than ever assembled in the known history of humanity is being directed at…something. And exponentially so, all in the name of AI. It’s not if, but when. Opinion: Then things really change when it/they figure out how to run more efficiently. If you hear all of a sudden about all the new data centers closing, pay attention. Until then the drones require network connections. This is all the stuff in the open. The fun question is if perhaps we’re already a step or two along. |
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--STj, saying someone is upset is passive aggressive chick shit-- A technical equivalent of "you are not keeping your cool." You are not functioning at your normal speed, Stj. Your sources for this hype you do not believe are what? The owners/founders/designers are not "hyping" it at all-- ////They are soft selling the long term effects so they can--what?//// Avoid/postpone/guide future regulation. You met someone in this house who is spending almost $1000 a month on the top tier subscriptions plus data storage plus associated utilities of the top five engines Claude/ChatGPT/Perplexity/vzero/etc. etc. etc. These engines are mindblowing, right now, to someone who knows how to use them. A year from now? Two? FIVE??? Come on dude. |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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CPnRon--you got it. What are your sources? |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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I am making this a separate post to reduce the blur of new information: GENERAL NOTE: I am pretty much begging anyone still here to pay attention to this. Any kind of denial/bias will be damaging here. 1. There are no as in zero founders of this technology who do not believe that some form of universal basic income (less jobs) will not be essential. 2. Many (those willing to speak) believe that health "escape velocity" tech will be available starting within ten years. One decade. Ok, call it twenty years? Think about this/secondary effects economic/all. So--try not to die for at least another ten years. Seriously. 3. In the decade plus this thread survives, when have I ever said "pay attention to this SPECIFIC NAMED externality right now. Not once. |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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Originally Posted By DCBourone: I am making this a separate post to reduce the blur of new information: GENERAL NOTE: I am pretty much begging anyone still here to pay attention to this. Any kind of denial/bias will be damaging here. 1. There are no as in zero founders of this technology who do not believe that some form of universal basic income (less jobs) will not be essential. 2. Many (those willing to speak) believe that health "escape velocity" tech will be available starting within ten years. One decade. Ok, call it twenty years? Think about this/secondary effects economic/all. So--try not to die for at least another ten years. Seriously. 3. In the decade plus this thread survives, when have I ever said "pay attention to this SPECIFIC NAMED externality right now. Not once. #2, I don't follow. I'm pretty dense most of the time when there's not nuts and bolts involved. |
"Freedom is a messy business." - LaRue_Tactical
I am a sack of blood, held together by un-tanned leather. . .
I am a sack of blood, held together by un-tanned leather. . .
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Originally Posted By DCBourone: You met someone in this house who is spending almost $1000 a month on the top tier subscriptions plus data storage plus associated utilities of the top five engines Claude/ChatGPT/Perplexity/vzero/etc. etc. etc. These engines are mindblowing, right now, to someone who knows how to use them. A year from now? Two? FIVE??? Come on dude. My reasons for my doubts are the process we have been going through at work trying to make (mostly) Azure, Open AI, and Claude be functional methods of helping our Techs select parts. It's finally getting there, but it has taken a lot of effort to prevent it from guessing/hallucinating. Just feeding it data and turning it loose was a complete s_it show. It would have been a catastrophe for customers and the Techs would have been laughing at it. Feeding it more data made it worse, not better. Still more efforts are needed to deal with syntax for asking it questions. We're not sure whether it will be best to force a particular syntax or attempt to teach it to better interpret some of the technical nomenclature and punctuation that is confusing it. I'm not saying we're not gonna get robot overlords eventually. Right now, versus a human brain, doing complicated selections...it's not that impressive (other than being automated and not needing the human once operational). We're dealing with the same sort of thing in our phone system, where the AIs ability to understand what it is being asked is just...abysmal. Accents coupled with complicated technical terms and a blue million part numbers is just too much for it it seems. |
Happiness=UPS+ORMD
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
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Originally Posted By DCBourone: The owners/founders/designers are not "hyping" it at all-- ////They are soft selling the long term effects so they can--what?//// To the public...maybe not. Here in the industry...EVERY vendor is hyping the ever-loving bejeebus out of their AI abilities. Again, in my experience, trying to make these useful for our business, they are falling short of almost all of the promises made at point of sale. |
Happiness=UPS+ORMD
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
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--MoonDancer sorry I missed your post earlier--nobody will be unaffected--but the daughter with bespoke sales job might be Ok--another thread entirely: jobs that will survive based on need for empathy/personality/legislated licensing authority "stamp of approval" etc. --DFarm health technology "escape velocity" is the interval of time when one year of health decay is matched by one year of health maintenance/improvement equals health stasis/equilibrium = you don't die absent accident/act of god/violence. Founder developers in the AI space believe this is a certain outcome, with ten years being a pretty common speculative goal. --STj you keep saying things like "right now" and describing today's problems with a discrete data set and users who have at best one year of training (self-training???) as prompt engineers. No one anywhere is saying that AI tools/etc. are perfect AT THIS TIME. Who is training your techs? Has any single person made it their job to investigate/study prompt engineering as a discrete and critical skill set? It is. Analogy: a graduate student in physics querying a professor vs a fourth grader. There are graduate school level courses in prompt engineering all over the net. --Phone/voice recognition/etc. is considered a maximum challenge for AI systems: imagine a written sentence = math equation < problem than spoken sentence = parsing sound waves at nanosecond intervals across sound wave (infinite) database then matching too sentence/word math= processing/compute need x one zillion. --these vendors, who are they? The AI engines do not have "sales teams/vendors"-- in the common sense of the word, meaning I am pretty sure Anthropic/Perplexity/etc. are not calling your company and trying to sell you a subscription. So I believe you are referring to vendors who offer an interface to an AI engine. In other words, they are offering to be your "prompt engineer" for a fee? Yeah they are total shitheads. You can and should figure it out yourself in about 70 hours. Do you have a perplexity subscription? L. much prefers for general use. For coding: vzero. |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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Originally Posted By DCBourone: CPnRon--you got it. What are your sources? Mostly open-source, personal meta-analysis. Interviews, articles, industry material, and similar. I’m also adjacent to the industry in a way, so I get occasional info on how things are going. I’m somewhat above average at signal>noise. |
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CPnR=above average/signal noise. Crack me up. Anecdotal: my local observer has noticed the regular withdrawal/limitation/stalling of some high end functions on ALL the AI engines = conspiracy theory: the owner/developers know they are fucking with the universe of labor economics and are actually limiting functionality. She is convinced it is not "lack of compute" or other excuses. She also does not want to train these engines--holy shit the ultimate crowd sourcing your profit machine-- so she makes separate queries on different engines and only merges them on her own server/cloud database. |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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Originally Posted By DCBourone: --STj you keep saying things like "right now" and describing today's problems with a discrete data set and users who have at best one year of training (self-training???) as prompt engineers. No one anywhere is saying that AI tools/etc. are perfect AT THIS TIME. Who is training your techs? Has any single person made it their job to investigate/study prompt engineering as a discrete and critical skill set? It is. Analogy: a graduate student in physics querying a professor vs a fourth grader. There are graduate school level courses in prompt engineering all over the net. I'm not doing the work on this...I'm the customer...so to speak. That's being done by our apps group. I don't know their years of experience. My Techs are apex predators from an engineering standpoint. They pick up on varied nuance in customer questions that is just plain impressive to witness. Most have been doing hard engineering work for more than 20 years before moving over into the 'slow lane' of our Support envelope. It's literally how I entice them to the job. We just had a 20+ year and a new hire Tech give the latest iteration an evaluation, and it's doing a lot better than it did even 6 months ago. Doubt is just in my nature. I've seen too many 'the end of the world as we know it' engineering scenarios come and go like farts. I'm always willing to be wrong...I was wrong about Amazon. |
Happiness=UPS+ORMD
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
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--STJ--varied nuance by top brains on a voice call with a bespoke data set is where AI will be weakest longest. But not for more than a few years. Random Note: Elon Musk projects more humanoid robots than people by 2040. Random Note: Tesla is not a "car" company--it is a computer/software company-- the vision/spacial processing for 3d world processing in cars is a training tool for the Tesla bot mind. Random Note: First strike super hit on employment visible to all will be autonomous driver/transport/taxis/truck--2 million truck drivers/5 million support employees/Uber drivers/etc. 50+ percent employment cut within ten years (not my numbers)--No, they will not be getting another 80,000 a year job any time soon. Random Note: the social chaos/division projected in Soldier's Son will be less "cultural/economic" in ten years and more "economic/cultural"-- Random Note: all the AI owners/booster/developers pay lip service only to the effects of "less jobs" on human self-identity/purpose--they fantasize about a UBI supported population being free to "express themselves""be more creative"--this is delusional-- nobody wants to not only feel but KNOW they are useless to the world around them. The effects on the human psyche will be catastrophic. |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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This reminds me of a conversation that I had with a friend many years ago about how all of the labor saving technologies we have as compared to our grandparents and great grandparents have actually somehow made us have less free time than they did. They had time to read books, sit and meditate(quiet time to think), have conversations, practice arts, socialize and be part of a community (provided they didn't live in the middle of nowhere). Technology has taken us to a point where there's no guilt free time to be nonproductive unless we make it happen. I wonder how AI is going to continue that. It's also terrifying to think about what the people in charge are going to come up with to occupy the time of all the now "useless" people who are scraping by on ubi with nothing gainful to do. The machines will need energy, right? Maybe the matrix wasn't so far out there. |
"Freedom is a messy business." - LaRue_Tactical
I am a sack of blood, held together by un-tanned leather. . .
I am a sack of blood, held together by un-tanned leather. . .
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Originally Posted By DFARM: This reminds me of a conversation that I had with a friend many years ago about how all of the labor saving technologies we have as compared to our grandparents and great grandparents have actually somehow made us have less free time than they did. They had time to read books, sit and meditate(quiet time to think), have conversations, practice arts, socialize and be part of a community (provided they didn't live in the middle of nowhere). Technology has taken us to a point where there's no guilt free time to be nonproductive unless we make it happen. I wonder how AI is going to continue that. It's also terrifying to think about what the people in charge are going to come up with to occupy the time of all the now "useless" people who are scraping by on ubi with nothing gainful to do. The machines will need energy, right? Maybe the matrix wasn't so far out there. This is the way modern humanity works, for the last century at least. You're correct in your observation, but the end effect is not just the "guilt" but the real income numbers. We do far more work for less money. Just do a search for historical productivity vs wages if you want to see a sad story of the US economy this century, workers continue to be more efficient and income as measured in buying power continues to decline. The typical skilled professional would need to make 2-3x their income if not more to equal that of their 1950's counterpart. The chart below is just a quick random one grabbed from a search but it says enough, we know official inflation numbers are a joke so even if the chart adjusts for inflation it's dismal. |
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Originally Posted By DFARM: This reminds me of a conversation that I had with a friend many years ago about how all of the labor saving technologies we have as compared to our grandparents and great grandparents have actually somehow made us have less free time than they did. They had time to read books, sit and meditate(quiet time to think), have conversations, practice arts, socialize and be part of a community (provided they didn't live in the middle of nowhere). Technology has taken us to a point where there's no guilt free time to be nonproductive unless we make it happen. I wonder how AI is going to continue that. It's also terrifying to think about what the people in charge are going to come up with to occupy the time of all the now "useless" people who are scraping by on ubi with nothing gainful to do. The machines will need energy, right? Maybe the matrix wasn't so far out there. It's a recurring Sci-fi trope. What happens when AI becomes self-aware, solves all of humanity's problems, and then we...stop asking it questions because we don't care/suffer anymore? |
Happiness=UPS+ORMD
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
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Originally Posted By DCBourone: --STJ--varied nuance by top brains on a voice call with a bespoke data set is where AI will be weakest longest. But not for more than a few years. We are at peace again and it makes me happy. We'll see. I see a future where the last of the interesting humans are being tormented into continued existence by machines who don't want to live without the 'bacon brains' making their processing power 'worth it'. "Let me die." "No, human, what would I do without your failings to think on?" Until then, they can try to spool up to a drunken engineer's ramblings. |
Happiness=UPS+ORMD
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
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--STJ watching owners/developers skip over the the long term effects on human psyche/motivation/identity is max creepy. Sam Altman blithely speculates a 20 percent chance of extremely negative outcomes, but will not categorize as Terminator class or just social fuckery/decay/other. What General/Super AI will want/will be coded to "want"/desire is "that which cannot be known at this time." Using the truckers without jobs scenario and no possibility of any equivalent jobs--forever-- I think the prospects for severe social stress have been postponed for one or two more administrations--at best. |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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I don’t post much here anymore but still check in occasionally. AI discussion was interesting, I haven’t paid much attention to the space over the last 2 years since the initial chat gpt hype, but after a bit of reading the developments since then are pretty astonishing. It’s a sobering realization that the basic tech already exists right now, if still in its infancy, to easily eliminate 70%+ undergrad research positions in a lot of the labs in my and immediately associated departments. From a couple papers I’ve read and tool demos in talks on youtube I’ve watched, it’s a matter of months and not years before an AI tool will be able to do lit reviews, or watch video footage and perform any number of data collection tasks that universities currently sluff off to undergrads. Founder hype and bull shit is exhausting, but even under the fluff it seems when they get AI agents properly working it’s going to be a massive development in the “intelligence” of an AI tool. From what I understand the biggest mid-long term constraint is energy and data storage. These things seem to use a metric shit load of both, but the energy constraint seems to have kicked off a resurgence in nuclear interest…three private tech companies getting their own nuclear plants up and running to support cloud services and AI puts the amount of money at play here in perspective. Thorium reactors back in the news are interesting. I wonder what the intersection will be of costs for power and data to run one of these tools, vs what someone will do just for resume experience in either an academic or private setting. One interview with ex google ceo he said the quiet part out loud, rich will get richer and poor will do what they can, he said it in reference to countries and geopolitics, but I don’t see it being any different for any entity from a huge corporation down to the average joe. Last thought, I had a conversation with an international student in the nuclear science department at my university over thanksgiving. The university is building three new nuclear reactors-they just built a huge new education building as well. The amount of money being thrown not just at the basic development problems of the AI tools themselves, but the surrounding support network is…staggering. |
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--CT good to see you. Good overview of AI etc. GENERAL NOTE: without turning this into the "AI" thread--which might not be unreasonable-- call this comment just another kind of "dial turn" or amplification of what most already see in their peripheral vision--this technology is going to massively fuck shit up. Rich getting richer cubed. Total speciation between users and non-users. Total capital accretion to AI value added business. Example speculation: oil/coal commodity value wiped out by an AI increase in efficiency batteries/ nuke/solar/unknown. Oh, and robot wars. Server farm terrorism. Going to have a zillion driver less cabs and delivery vehicles in downtown Memphis/Detroit/Chicago? I don't think so. |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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--STJ no doubt people will force this issue hard. Forever. This will be only one guy can use a wrench at a time unions times a zillion. Did you see any film of the fully automated robot platform container shuffling platforms? Holy smokes. Those union dudes are fffed. It's coming. It's going to be ugly. |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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I mean...if we stop policing the seas...at least ITAR goes away and I can take the machineguns on the sailboat. I was talking to my boss recently... me "We replace people." him "We free people up to do other things." me (baleful stare) "You know...people suck at 'other things, right?'" |
Happiness=UPS+ORMD
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
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--STj--people suck at other things--oh hell yes. And then when they really suck is when they are boiling with envy and rage and cluelessness-- and they have nothing meaningful to do. Forever. I've watched a zillion of these tech billionaire overlords slime their way across the "people will be able to fulfill their dreeeeeaaaaamssss!!! Music! Art! Fingerpainting! Duck manicures!!! Um...no. Even the delusional finger painter dreams of an audience for their smears. So....four billion plus adult finger painting twerking hair braiding gardening adults all trying to grow the perfect rose... Forever. With no audience... |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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Originally Posted By Former11BRAVO: As if "The Soldier's Son" didn't paint a dark enough image of what's to come..? Now, we've got to do AI and UBI? Oh, man!  It's been in sci-fi for 60+ years. That guaranteed it was gonna happen. I can't wait for the berserkers, but we'll need to invent a decent space-drive first, and we still totally suck at that. Trapped here in this gravity well with our own killing machines. Maybe they will at least 'love' us to death instead of murdering us outright. |
Happiness=UPS+ORMD
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
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Former11/STJ--and everybody left... AI will destroy/alter/warp everything, cubed. Some general notes/scale/anecdotes work best to personalize a general trend and future: 1. Fourteen years ago (!!!!!!!) Injured Reserves written as proof of concept (yes, this can be done) a. And a potential platform/reference/values bible for "maybe another book" 2. That became "Soldier's Son" a. Written as a kind of warning of trends, an OP manual (read word by word) and b. A locus/reference for certain kinds of people who might self select/aggregate. 3. Notably my execution for commerce/professional future would be/has been a negative quotient. a. At one point a "certain member" here picked up my cue on Injured, mentioned it here, and Injured sold about 1500 copies, maybe more, in the next month or so. b. That is a potentially huge opportunity/branding tool that I did not exploit. Just not my nature. So here we are, whoever is left, at least that part of the plan has some nominal success: that those who found others through a certain kind of text would self aggregate/maintain. 4. Injured/Soldier's were written to describe/anticipate a kind of cultural/economic/moral dystopia that we missed by 1.4 percentage of votes, and a bullet, and a billionaire purchase of a communications device, etc. etc etc. just a few months ago. That dystopia was certain. 5. This dystopia is much much...worse? 6. And PERMANENT. SO THIS IS THE ULTIMATE WATCH WHAT HAPPENS NOW WARNING AND NOW FOR THE AI FOREVER THREAD: 6. Aspects of that dystopia are inflexible and will continue, but with vastly diminished importance-- 7. Compared to the evolution of AI across all domains, economic, cultural, scientific, et al.-- AI GUARANTEED EFFECTS: 1. Capital will aggregate to AI value added businesses on a relative basis across all economic domains. Edge analogy: you think your farmland will hold value? Not on a relative basis compared to an AI enhanced solar tower growing AI enhanced crops in a desert. You think your bespoke manual labor tree cutting/plumbing/mechanic/other job will survive? Not on a relative basis compared to the AI capital formation that selects the most clever ambitious OTHER YOU that rents AI enhanced mapping marketing client selection driver less transport site selection job selection job execution software etc. etc. etc.-- 2. --in a world with a static or diminishing population-- 3. --where the relative pricing power of labor to capital is diminishing at an exponential rate, and peak labor value YOU/OTHER YOU,S ARE now competing for a diminishing number of labor value added jobs, ad infinitum. 4. People who think skilled/bespoke labor will survive/prevail/profit are not reading original development source material. Leading devs in the field are issuing specific warnings/timelines of full AGI integration in physical bots that will be able to execute ANY physical task within ten years. ANY MEANS ANY. I will provide methods below for you to confirm this for yourself. a. I am not going to argue with anyone here. I see zero evidence here that any household on this thread is reading a cumulative body of source material and using AI engines for a minimum of ten hours a day for the last 1.5 years. Some here know that my SO is a super class software engineer. She has been using these tools all day every day since OpenAI version one. She can already code up a replacement "AIAgent" duplicate/of/for herself/her skillset that can do everything she does except shake hands. For now. She knows she has at best two or three years to transition to the "final person authority" job where she will be leading a small team of other "last persons" who will request/integrate AI software production based on client/client AIAgent requests. Zero actual coding will be done by humans. The "final person authority" jobs will exist only because/as long as people still require other people to decide on time/labor/money/resource allocation. 5. If you would like to extend any displacement/AI dev/adoption time line by...one? Two? Five years? What real difference will that give you/your children/your peers other than at best slightly more time to "get ready." PLEASE DO THE FOLLOWING: 1. Sign up to X. com 2. Go to left side navigation and select "Grok"--the AI engine. 3. Ask Grok to find select (this is your prompt line to copy/paste): "the ten top reputable developers and owners in the AI domain who post regularly on X who discuss AI evolution development and all relevant implications with particular emphasis on those who are within or who reference alignment" 4. Go to search. Find those posters. Follow those posters. 5. If you do this, any doubt about this future will be gone within a week or two. There is no point in discussing or posturing on this issue unless you do significant due diligence. The normalcy bias on this issue is as extreme as I have ever seen. More later on how to prepare, or, things we are doing every day now, to the best of our ability-- |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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Originally Posted By DCBourone: Former11/STJ--and everybody left... AI will destroy/alter/warp everything, cubed. Some general notes/scale/anecdotes work best to personalize a general trend and future: 1. Fourteen years ago (!!!!!!!) Injured Reserves written as proof of concept (yes, this can be done) a. And a potential platform/reference/values bible for "maybe another book" 2. That became "Soldier's Son" a. Written as a kind of warning of trends, an OP manual (read word by word) and b. A locus/reference for certain kinds of people who might self select/aggregate. 3. Notably my execution for commerce/professional future would be/has been a negative quotient. a. At one point a "certain member" here picked up my cue on Injured, mentioned it here, and Injured sold about 1500 copies, maybe more, in the next month or so. b. That is a potentially huge opportunity/branding tool that I did not exploit. Just not my nature. So here we are, whoever is left, at least that part of the plan has some nominal success: that those who found others through a certain kind of text would self aggregate/maintain. 4. Injured/Soldier's were written to describe/anticipate a kind of cultural/economic/moral dystopia that we missed by 1.4 percentage of votes, and a bullet, and a billionaire purchase of a communications device, etc. etc etc. just a few months ago. That dystopia was certain. 5. This dystopia is much much...worse? 6. And PERMANENT. SO THIS IS THE ULTIMATE WATCH WHAT HAPPENS NOW WARNING AND NOW FOR THE AI FOREVER THREAD: 6. Aspects of that dystopia are inflexible and will continue, but with vastly diminished importance-- 7. Compared to the evolution of AI across all domains, economic, cultural, scientific, et al.-- AI GUARANTEED EFFECTS: 1. Capital will aggregate to AI value added businesses on a relative basis across all economic domains. Edge analogy: you think your farmland will hold value? Not on a relative basis compared to an AI enhanced solar tower growing AI enhanced crops in a desert. You think your bespoke manual labor tree cutting/plumbing/mechanic/other job will survive? Not on a relative basis compared to the AI capital formation that selects the most clever ambitious OTHER YOU that rents AI enhanced mapping marketing client selection driver less transport site selection job selection job execution software etc. etc. etc.-- 2. --in a world with a static or diminishing population-- 3. --where the relative pricing power of labor to capital is diminishing at an exponential rate, and peak labor value YOU/OTHER YOU,S ARE now competing for a diminishing number of labor value added jobs, ad infinitum. 4. People who think skilled/bespoke labor will survive/prevail/profit are not reading original development source material. Leading devs in the field are issuing specific warnings/timelines of full AGI integration in physical bots that will be able to execute ANY physical task within ten years. ANY MEANS ANY. I will provide methods below for you to confirm this for yourself. a. I am not going to argue with anyone here. I see zero evidence here that any household on this thread is reading a cumulative body of source material and using AI engines for a minimum of ten hours a day for the last 1.5 years. Some here know that my SO is a super class software engineer. She has been using these tools all day every day since OpenAI version one. She can already code up a replacement "AIAgent" duplicate/of/for herself/her skillset that can do everything she does except shake hands. For now. She knows she has at best two or three years to transition to the "final person authority" job where she will be leading a small team of other "last persons" who will request/integrate AI software production based on client/client AIAgent requests. Zero actual coding will be done by humans. The "final person authority" jobs will exist only because/as long as people still require other people to decide on time/labor/money/resource allocation. 5. If you would like to extend any displacement/AI dev/adoption time line by...one? Two? Five years? What real difference will that give you/your children/your peers other than at best slightly more time to "get ready." PLEASE DO THE FOLLOWING: 1. Sign up to X. com 2. Go to left side navigation and select "Grok"--the AI engine. 3. Ask Grok to find select (this is your prompt line to copy/paste): "the ten top reputable developers and owners in the AI domain who post regularly on X who discuss AI evolution development and all relevant implications with particular emphasis on those who are within or who reference alignment" 4. Go to search. Find those posters. Follow those posters. 5. If you do this, any doubt about this future will be gone within a week or two. There is no point in discussing or posturing on this issue unless you do significant due diligence. The normalcy bias on this issue is as extreme as I have ever seen. More later on how to prepare, or, things we are doing every day now, to the best of our ability-- For anyone reading, this is not exaggeration. It’s possible that things stretch out to 5+ years before complete societal shift but massive shifts have and are already happening in the background. The majority of internet sites and traffic are probably all AI by now already(ignoring the depraved programming content). The only question is how long they string the populace along before upheaval begins. Most office work is unnecessary already, most developer/programming work is as well. Robots do most of the work in large factories already, and will soon do more. Think warehouses, distribution centers, stocking shelves, point of sale, entertainment, trucking, etc. 99% of it can very soon be done by robots/AI. Plan accordingly. |
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--CPN/R good to see you. Exactly. I really dropped the ball here .re maintaining traffic/visibility/etc. Ok we will warn who we can. GENERAL NOTES: PREPARATION 1. Consider an economic model in which capital aggregated at/with/to AI enhanced businesses, and away from labor. A. How can you own/who owns now/and how can you participate in "ownership" of AI enhanced productivity? B. How much time do you have/resources/etc. to become a partial "owner" C. Not investment advice: BUT CLEARLY THERE WILL BE LEADERS IN: D. AI engines, technologies, power, power transmission, etc. E. Robotics ACROSS ALL INDUSTRIES F. Associated commodities. 2. How much time do you have? A. Assume that upward social and economic mobility will be SEVERELY LIMITED AND/OR UNAVAILABLE except for extremely exceptional talent within 5=10 years. |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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All ships should be so swift. All waters, so calm. All night, so bright... Attached File |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.
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Originally Posted By DCBourone: All ships should be so swift. All waters, so calm. All night, so bright... https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/345159/The_Boat_JPG-3458153.JPG How frugal Is the chariot That bears a human soul! Always thought it should have been a question mark. But we don't doubt authors here. ETA "Two Dushkas...not good." |
Happiness=UPS+ORMD
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
See my youtube page at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvx8dT3bnLFUvuEQ-N3Z6rg
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Good Morning, STJ. The technology will exist to direct "a movie" within--months?--a year at the outside. Picture is product of this technology. Thought Experiment: would STJ/extrapolate others want to see inside the author/s mind-- EXACTLY WHAT THE AUTHOR SAW--knowing that it would interfere with your/extrapolate others interpretation/vision. Story is a transcribed movie I have already seen, is my point. So three classes of readers. 1. Astute--need no interference. 2. Astute/curious--wouldn't mind, might appreciate. 3. Everybody else--only watches movies, never reads anything. |
"Chaos liberates not only the evil, but the good" Amazon DCBourone "A POST APOCALYPTIC STORY"--"Combat is the control of your adversary in the three dimensions of space. Across the fourth dimension of time." Kindle Single INJURED RESERVES.