Posted: 9/12/2025 10:14:41 AM EDT
[Last Edit: M-231][Edited]
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Over the years, I'm transitioning from a 'timing the market' to a 'time in the market' philosophy. The recent surge had my trigger finger on VIGAX to sell off and make some cash, so I can jump back in to more VIGAX when the fall comes. Is this the time that you would do that, or would you just leave it be? I've left it be for now but might sell it (or I guess I could sell some of it) after lunch. ETA it's in a traditional IRA. I am still learning about that vs. Roth. |
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Make some cash to spend or take your gains and sit on cash till it falls (whenever that is) and buy back? Sounds like you are still trying to time the market. Simple answer: Are you close to retirement? If not, leave it alone and keep putting more money in. Slow and steady wins the financial race. Are you trying to make up for lost time (started investing late in life)? There are no surefire get wealthy quick methods….but there are lots of lose everything quick methods. If you are starting late in life, the only real solution to make up for lost time is to max your contributions. Make more and live on less to be able to contribute as much as possible. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: Make some cash to spend or take your gains and sit on cash till it falls (whenever that is) and buy back? Sounds like you are still trying to time the market. Simple answer: Are you close to retirement? If not, leave it alone and keep putting more money in. Slow and steady wins the financial race. Are you trying to make up for lost time (started investing late in life)? There are no surefire get wealthy quick methods….but there are lots of lose everything quick methods. If you are starting late in life, the only real solution to make up for lost time is to max your contributions. Make more and live on less to be able to contribute as much as possible. That's my dilemma. I'm 47, plan on retiring at 65 but unless life stops me, I'll work until I drop. I have a 401k through work that I contribute monthly, and it's grown solid. I don't consider any money 'play' money, but this isn't my only nestegg. |
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Just don't lie to yourself. You are still trying to time the market. That is what you are describing. If that's what you want to do. Go for it. Just, be aware that this is indeed what you are doing. |
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Modern life is one steep, perpetual tax on the mathematically impaired
Modern life is one steep, perpetual tax on the mathematically impaired
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Originally Posted By jos51700: That's my dilemma. I'm 47, plan on retiring at 65 but unless life stops me, I'll work until I drop. I have a 401k through work that I contribute monthly, and it's grown solid. I don't consider any money 'play' money, but this isn't my only nestegg. How is it a dilemma? You have 18 years till you want to retire. If you put in xyz amount every year, it grows at whatever rate you project it to grow (it’s a guess because things always change but you can make educated guesses), then in 18 years you will have abc amount of money. Your projected retirement expenses are zyx. Does your anticipated retirement income cover your planned expenses? If so, keep doing what you are doing. If not, better step up your savings rate. You step up your savings rate by making more money, spending less money, or a combo of the above. If the market keeps rising(and it will over time), you lose out on gains. If the market drops (and it will at some point) your net worth will fall. But, it will come back at some point. At 20yrs old, you have lots of time. At 47, you still have lots of time but not nearly as much time. Remember the movie Back to the Future? The sports almanac? If that was me, instead of a sports almanac, I’d want a history of the market. Give me that and I’d make Biff look like a poor kid. Unfortunately, none of us have that. So, we make financial moves based on our own risk tolerance. If you believe the market will drop soon….sure move it out and convert it to cash inside the account. But, you also may be wrong and may lose out on gains. Your call. I would let it sit and grow personally. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By Bohr_Adam: Just don't lie to yourself. You are still trying to time the market. That is what you are describing. If that's what you want to do. Go for it. Just, be aware that this is indeed what you are doing. I'm well aware of that. That's my dilemma lol When bounds up like this, I KNOW it's a good time to sell some off and sit on the cash. But I also KNOW I should just sit tight. |
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Originally Posted By jos51700: I'm well aware of that. That's my dilemma lol When bounds up like this, I KNOW it's a good time to sell some off and sit on the cash. But I also KNOW I should just sit tight. You don’t KNOW which is a good move. Either could be good. You can’t guarantee the future. But what we DO know is people who try to time the market succeed occasionally and lose a lot. People who are patient and keep investing steadily in good investments consistently do well over the long term. I suspect you have less for retirement than you should at this stage in life, have finally realized it, and are trying to make up for lost time. You aren’t alone. LOTS of people are in the same boat. The only solution is make more and/or spend less and invest like crazy. Remember this quote from Warren Buffett: “The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient” |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
|
Originally Posted By ColtRifle: You don’t KNOW which is a good move. Either could be good. You can’t guarantee the future. But what we DO know is people who try to time the market succeed occasionally and lose a lot. People who are patient and keep investing steadily in good investments consistently do well over the long term. I suspect you have less for retirement than you should at this stage in life, have finally realized it, and are trying to make up for lost time. You aren’t alone. LOTS of people are in the same boat. The only solution is make more and/or spend less and invest like crazy. Remember this quote from Warren Buffett: “The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient” I shall sit. Good point. I'm sitting OK on retirement. I live cheap. Currently shedding debt and watching for more rental house investments. It would be hard to be much cheaper than me. I steal dry foods from the hotels I stay at. I wash and re-use ziploc bags. I pick up scrap metal when I'm out walking. I grab dumpster vacuums, put new belts and filters in them, and sell them. My ac is parked at 74, my heat in the winter at 54, and I've only financed one vehicle in my entire life. My dailly is a 300k mile Dodge Neon that I paid $300 for and put a junkyard transmission in. My house is only 1k ft^2. I don't live large. |
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What I would do is….define what retirement looks like for you. Travel? Vacation home in the FL Keys? 16 hrs a day at home sitting in front of the TV? Whatever you want it to be. Once you have defined it, then decide….”Do I have enough to support my planned retirement?” If so, hold the course and retire on schedule. If not, work harder, make more, invest more etc till you DO have enough. If you don’t have enough time to have the retirement you really want…then refine down your goals and expectations to where your finances really are. Many or likely even most people are in far worse shape for retirement financially than they realize. If they would have done that retirement analysis well before they got there, they might have had everything they wanted or even retired a little sooner than they did. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
|
Originally Posted By jos51700: I'm well aware of that. That's my dilemma ..... Originally Posted By jos51700: Originally Posted By Bohr_Adam: Just don't lie to yourself. You are still trying to time the market. I'm well aware of that. That's my dilemma ..... Take the route that gives the best chance of meeting your goals. VIGAX has very high volatility. In exchange for that volatility risk you get a higher average return. Compared to a growth fund like VIGAX the next step down in volatility/risk/returns would be something like an sp500 fund (VFIAX) or a total market fund (VTSAX). If you can meet your financial plan goals with some of your money in less volatile investments I would recommend that. On the other hand, there has never been an 18 year span where the market was lower at the end than it was at the beginning. If you're serious about wanting to work 18 more years then history says go all in on the most volatile index funds you can find. Attached File |
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In my opinion the best strategy is have a position you buy and hold long term. And a second position you're willing to actively trade. Back when I was actively trading during the covid madness I was averaging 60% returns. I had a simple strategy. I looked at highly volatile stocks that I also wouldn't mind holding 'long term' and traded them. If shit went wrong and I couldn't trade for a profit I held them until I could. I did not do any kind of technical analysis or anything fancy. I traded off of common sense and other people's emotional waves. I got out before I took a loss and rolled everything into long term holdings. I'm too busy to actively trade anymore but that's still my crypto strategy. Buy low. Sell High. Rinse and repeat. Don't get greedy because when you do, you make bad moves. Never trying to get rich or make a big killing... Just stacking up a series of small wins. 3% here. 5% there. Etc. Then roll those profits into long term holdings. |
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I'll put in another mindset or perspective. 1) Figure out, are you an investor or a trader? 2) That will drive your time horizon then your actions need to match your objectives. As an investor, you are backwards.@jos51700 You need be timing the market on the BUY not the sell. 47 years old (I'm 49), we should be thinking what is the value of this purchase going to be in 8 years versus another play? Meaning, am I willing to gamble $100 that XOM will be valued more than $100 of VITAX in 8 years? Essentially every purchase is wagering which is going to be worth more. Build up funds, then time the buy based on current trends, swings, news, debt etc etc. Sell? That's a different conversation as it should be based on 1) Your bucket status and needs 2) Has the company flatlined (GE, XOM, Honeywell etc) 3) Tax implications Selling shouldn't be "woohooo, I made 87% profit!!! take it to the bank". As a trader, potentially as they have different objectives. Example, I bought a boat load of TSLA in 2016-2019. Done very well and haven't sold a single share and don't plan to until they either kill Musk or I need to fill a retirement bucket in 7 years or the company growth flatlines. Same with RLKB earlier this year. Bought a boat load at $11-$14. same story. I've only sold positions if I research shows the company growth is "done" and there are better options out there. We don't sell to fund lifestyle. Our goal is to build a big ass machine of multiple income streams in various accounts so in 9-12 quarters, I've got options of selling various things to fill Retirement buckets. |