Posted: 11/30/2025 11:59:45 AM EDT
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I know I’m not the only one who feels like a lot of the economy is fake and gay these days. Your favorite tech company can beat all earning forecasts yet their stock dips. PE ratios 20x what is considered normal. Stock buybacks that create “fake” demand. Markets move based on the outlook for a fed rate cut. Buy now pay later debt is practically invisible, so all that consumer debt does not factor into reporting. I hate these ai generated videos, but this one came up on my commute and it’s like they read my mind. I guess the only question is how long the fake and gay ADD economy can last. Is it the new normal?  How Short Term Thinking Won |
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Stock buybacks return capital to shareholders and decrease supply. Nothing fake, nor new, about that. Has the market ever looked rational? Pretty normal for rumors to be bought and news to be sold, no? Have they not always moved on rate cuts? My margin interest rate drops with cuts, so it’s not hard to see how that would result in increased buying pressure. Y’know, good old fashioned supply and demand. Social media is full of doomer propaganda. I watch that dude’s videos, but he has a pessimistic view of….literally everything. That’s why I watch them. |
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Originally Posted By 1168RGR: Has the market ever looked rational? Social media is full of doomer propaganda. I watch that dude’s videos, but he has a pessimistic view of….literally everything. That’s why I watch them. Perhaps so, but that doesn’t mean it’s untrue. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: I didn’t use the word rational. I chose fake and gay for a reason. Perhaps so, but that doesn’t mean it’s untrue. The economic numbers continue to be contrary to doomer narratives. It’s not a surprise that the market is bullish. Sure, there are quite a few things that are totally absurd. Lots of things I avoid investing in because they give Enron vibes. Wild P/E ratios. Vaporware. But overall, America is prosperous and the markets reflect that. |
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Originally Posted By 1168RGR: The economic numbers continue to be contrary to doomer narratives. It’s not a surprise that the market is bullish. Sure, there are quite a few things that are totally absurd. Lots of things I avoid investing in because they give Enron vibes. Wild P/E ratios. Vaporware. But overall, America is prosperous and the markets reflect that. Originally Posted By 1168RGR: Originally Posted By Morgan321: I didn’t use the word rational. I chose fake and gay for a reason. Perhaps so, but that doesn’t mean it’s untrue. The economic numbers continue to be contrary to doomer narratives. It’s not a surprise that the market is bullish. Sure, there are quite a few things that are totally absurd. Lots of things I avoid investing in because they give Enron vibes. Wild P/E ratios. Vaporware. But overall, America is prosperous and the markets reflect that. What economic numbers would those be? I'm no doomer, but the "economic numbers" don't support Pollyanna beliefs either. |
"History teaches us that men and nations behave wisely once they have exhausted all other alternatives."-Abba Eban
"I like it both ways, but still mainly mouth it" -gonzo_beyondo
"I like it both ways, but still mainly mouth it" -gonzo_beyondo
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Originally Posted By Cardplayer: Some may call you the scholar of GD, I’m not saying everything is doom, just that the game is changing. Some differences are surely for the better and some seem for the worse. It’s not the strongest animal that survives in the wild, it is the most adaptable. |
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Originally Posted By rob78: What economic numbers would those be? I'm no doomer, but the "economic numbers" don't support Pollyanna beliefs either. Originally Posted By rob78: What economic numbers would those be? I'm no doomer, but the "economic numbers" don't support Pollyanna beliefs either. I enjoy fact-checking narratives more than spinning my own. Originally Posted By Morgan321: I’m not saying everything is doom, just that the game is changing. Some differences are surely for the better and some seem for the worse. It’s not the strongest animal that survives in the wild, it is the most adaptable. Edit: looks like tech, and therefore lots of stuff, gapped down, if I must find some negativity. |
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I wouldn’t call the economy fake and gay but there definitely is a bifurcation. The rising tide of the past few years certainly hasn’t raised all boats. The market seems to have a similar divide with about 40% of the companies in the S&P 500 being negative year to date. It’s an interesting thought experiment to speculate where things go from here. The video in the OP makes a big issue about stock buybacks but omits several factors about them, likely on purpose, to fit their narrative that the direction is bad. Time will tell. |
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Originally Posted By Procat: I wouldn’t call the economy fake and gay but there definitely is a bifurcation. The rising tide of the past few years certainly hasn’t raised all boats. The stock market has been good, like you said, due to the outsized performance of a small number of companies. Absent those gains the entire stock market would have had very lackluster performance for many years now. Is the overall economy "good" due to the outsized contribution of a small minority of the public? ie. a small fraction of the country is doing fine while an increasingly large fraction is not? It seems like everybody has ADD now and can only focus on the immediate future: Businesses don't think past the next big thing and surely don't care about decades down the road. Even in defense I see companies give up long term advantage for short term gains. Schools only "teach the test" because those standardized test scores are all the school system cares about. Screw teaching kids useful or abstract things that will help them in life, just get them to do better on the test. Keep debt cheap so that everybody can finance everything and then they only have to worry about their next paycheck. No need to fix social security, reign in .gov spending, or for people to be financially responsible for themselves. Not sure if this is an accurate take or if I'm just the old man yelling at the clouds? |
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Originally Posted By 1168RGR: It’d honestly be easier for you to tell me which numbers are bad. I’m not saying anything is perfect, but times are much better than some of these narratives would have one believe, compared to other times in US history, or the rest of the world today. I enjoy fact-checking narratives more than spinning my own. We certainly have common ground there. Edit: looks like tech, and therefore lots of stuff, gapped down, if I must find some negativity. Originally Posted By 1168RGR: Originally Posted By rob78: What economic numbers would those be? I'm no doomer, but the "economic numbers" don't support Pollyanna beliefs either. I enjoy fact-checking narratives more than spinning my own. Originally Posted By Morgan321: I’m not saying everything is doom, just that the game is changing. Some differences are surely for the better and some seem for the worse. It’s not the strongest animal that survives in the wild, it is the most adaptable. Edit: looks like tech, and therefore lots of stuff, gapped down, if I must find some negativity. https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/october/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES3000000008 (cumulative inflation 28.1% during same period) https://constructioncoverage.com/research/cities-with-the-most-mortgage-delinquencies I think we're witnessing the demise of the lower-middle and middle classes. Most recent reports on mfg are that job losses are mounting. The last job creation number increases were in hospitality...more or less folks back-filling the jobs vacated by illegals. Not doom, not good. I think we'll continue to see the "k" curve grow; that's not good for mid-terms or the US economy. |
"History teaches us that men and nations behave wisely once they have exhausted all other alternatives."-Abba Eban
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: Not sure if this is an accurate take or if I'm just the old man yelling at the clouds? Originally Posted By rob78: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/october/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES3000000008 (cumulative inflation 28.1% during same period) https://constructioncoverage.com/research/cities-with-the-most-mortgage-delinquencies I think we're witnessing the demise of the lower-middle and middle classes. Most recent reports on mfg are that job losses are mounting. The last job creation number increases were in hospitality...more or less folks back-filling the jobs vacated by illegals. Not doom, not good. I think we'll continue to see the "k" curve grow; that's not good for mid-terms or the US economy. |
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Originally Posted By rob78: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/october/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES3000000008 (cumulative inflation 28.1% during same period) https://constructioncoverage.com/research/cities-with-the-most-mortgage-delinquencies I think we're witnessing the demise of the lower-middle and middle classes. Most recent reports on mfg are that job losses are mounting. The last job creation number increases were in hospitality...more or less folks back-filling the jobs vacated by illegals. Not doom, not good. I think we'll continue to see the "k" curve grow; that's not good for mid-terms or the US economy. 1) You’re right, I think increasing consumer debt is concerning. Adjusting per capita would cushion that metric slightly, which is probably why it is presented the way it is, instead. 2) As much as I’d personally love manufacturing to return to the US, and I preferentially buy US made products at any reasonable price premium, I can’t help but notice that places where manufacturing is the main thing are poor and shitty places. GDP data implies that we’re collectively doing just fine fueling our economy outside of manufacturing, even if I personally despise some of those industries. Basically, I look more at GDP as an indicator of the health of the broader economy instead of just manufacturing, just like I look at SPY or VTI as an indicator of the broad market instead of XLRE. But I also wouldn’t call your concern about manufacturing irrelevant, particularly if considering peer conflict. 3) I was actually expecting to use that same chart as evidence that things aren’t bad. Zoom out…I looked at this a couple months ago and saw that median salary growth has outpaced inflation since the 60s or 70s (don’t remember which, or why I chose that period for comparison). Recency bias skews this because inflation has, in fact, been very gay, a couple years ago, and the employment market rewarded being unproductive during that same period. But if we zoom out, inflation is above target, but not alarming since we also make more. Lifestyle and tech device creep appears to be a serious problem, though. 4) While mortgage delinquency rate is concerning, because it isn’t zero, it isn’t exactly at all time highs, either. FRED data shows it to be a little higher than 2023, but wayyyyy down on the 10yr and max (34yr) charts. 10yr:  (Max)34yr:  On the K-shape thing: While I think there is some validity, because that’s the way it’s always been, I tend to stop reading when I see that narrative keyword pop up. There are people who want to convince us that the world (or America) is ending, and it’s a progression in their failing argument. The problem with that is whenever people try to support the K-shaped narrative with facts, they tend to be lacking, or cherry pick 2020-2024 as a baseline. >the economy is falling apart! >no, actually the numbers don’t support that statement. >ok, but it’s K-shaped, is my new goalpost! Then they shift to currency exchange bullshit. Watching this narrative evolve, I see this over and over again. It gets debunked, so the goalpoast moves. I can give more examples, if you like, just since the last POTUS election. You gave one yourself, placing a “yeah, but” on the job increases. Probably the economic subject with the most high-volume bullshit propaganda surrounding it. |