SpaceX IPO (Page 6 of 7)
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Building the flywheel. 1 Year from now the ecosystem will be nearly complete and booming. The moat width continues. There will be no competitors. Next step to orbital data centers. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: Based on my rough numbers, QQQ alone will have to buy on the order of 20million shares of space x stock once it becomes part of the nasdaq index. That's about 10% of one day's volume for just one index fund. Any thoughts on how much demand index buying will create and how elastic (or not) space x stock price will be? Is it possible that indexes are already buying shares in an attempt to pre-empt the rush? Is that legal? I've googled but can't find any details. Seems like a good opportunity for a short-term profit via shares or selling puts. I would expect all the demand that people are talking about to be a nothing burger... The managers know they have to buy it, so my guess would be they're already front buying so all of a sudden there will not be a price and supply shock It will create some upward price pressure, and most likely create a new price floor |
"If you think its expensive hiring a professional, try hiring an amateur first."
-A. Einstein
-A. Einstein
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Originally Posted By H4ppyB34r: I would expect all the demand that people are talking about to be a nothing burger... I'm thinking if it touches the $135 IPO price that could trigger a bigger decline and be an excellent buying opportunity. |
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Originally Posted By thedownzero: Technical analysis is a thing, the only people really pumping this were those that stood to profit, the robinhood users who think they're Jordan Belfort, or the commoners who think it's like the lottery and they had the winning numbers. 
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"Life is Hard, its Harder if You're Stupid" - John Wayne
https://ir.spacex.com/updates/releases-details/2026/SpaceX-to-Post-Second-Quarter-2026-Results-and-Host-Webcast-on-August-4-2026-2026-g8layJlbFm/default.aspx |
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Cathie Wood has made a lot of bad calls in her tenure. https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/cathie-wood-says-battered-spacex-most-important-company-global-history |
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Play the long game. The next 2-4 weeks are going to be rough!! Good time to potentially shore up positions. 10 years not 2 weeks. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Play the long game. The next 2-4 weeks are going to be rough!! Good time to potentially shore up positions. 10 years not 2 weeks. Or double up your shorts. There are a lot of insider shares that will be unlocked and probably sold immediately. I suspect many of those IPO holders will be more than ready to take profits and dump their positions. SpaceX has negative net income and is pretty shaky at the moment. It isn't necessarily a bad company; it's just wildly overvalued. If the IPO holders start dumping when their lockout dates hit, it is going to get interesting. The holders might like Elon Musk, but they probably like realizing profits even more. Needless to say, I'm short on SpaceX. Apparently, I have lots of company. |
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Originally Posted By DouglasQuaid: Needless to say, I'm short on SpaceX. Apparently, I have lots of company. Yes, lots of company. Possibly a third of the public float is short. Of course that will change in August. How much it changes is the question. HTB fees are increasing. It will be interesting to watch. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: Fidelity asked me to loan out my space x shares in exchange for 1% yield while they are on loan. I'm not smart, but the only reason I can imagine is for others to short the shares? That’s exactly why. Double check because I think they may have changed it but in the past Fidelity wouldn’t let you sell calls on shares that were lent out. |
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Originally Posted By Procat: That’s exactly why. Double check because I think they may have changed it but in the past Fidelity wouldn’t let you sell calls on shares that were lent out. They raised the rate overnight to 1.125% yield. It'd be barely $30 per month if they loaned out all my shares so it doesn't seem worth the hassle unless the yield goes up a good bit. I'm more curious about what happens on the other end - if my shares are loaned and sold short by somebody else and then 'recalled' for whatever reason. |
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Originally Posted By Soxfan: While I hope you’re right about a squeeze, what make ls you think that could happen? Also, if someone can see that in advance or the possibility, what prevents shorts from getting out before that happens? Sorry, I’m not sure how all that works Shares available to short are down and HTB fees are now over 4%. Smart shorts can see this happening but only a few can cover without pushing up the price. Look at the price over the last hour and you will see what I mean. If the earnings report on the 4th beats expectations, (doesn’t have to be positive, just above expectations). Some new shares hit the market on the 6th. Many of them will be used to cover existing shorts. Might not be a full short squeeze, but it won’t be fun for those who thought shorting SPCX was going to be easy money. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: They raised the rate overnight to 1.125% yield. I've read everything Fidelity has about it and it seems transparent from my perspective - shares automatically returned if I sell them for any reason (sale, option exercised, etc) and I can sell calls against them. Seems like a no brainer. Is there a downside I'm not seeing? |
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Originally Posted By Procat: I wouldn’t count on a SPCX short squeeze. It’s very likely that lots of the short selling wasn’t naked and the holders have the shares to back up the trade. I am not counting on a short squeeze. SPCX is currently up 4%. Definitely not a short squeeze. Also definitely not totally exuberant retail investors pushing it up. HTB fees are now >4.6%, being short SPCX is not easy today. |
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Originally Posted By grendelbane: I am not counting on a short squeeze. SPCX is currently up 4%. Definitely not a short squeeze. Also definitely not totally exuberant retail investors pushing it up. HTB fees are now >4.6%, being short SPCX is not easy today. What’s a typical range of parameters of a short in either percent, dollars or timeline for a short to inflict pain or other? |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: Fidelity keeps bugging me when I'm logged in about loaning out my space x. They are paying 1.375% now. I've read everything Fidelity has about it and it seems transparent from my perspective - shares automatically returned if I sell them for any reason (sale, option exercised, etc) and I can sell calls against them. Seems like a no brainer. Is there a downside I'm not seeing? Originally Posted By Morgan321: Originally Posted By Morgan321: They raised the rate overnight to 1.125% yield. I've read everything Fidelity has about it and it seems transparent from my perspective - shares automatically returned if I sell them for any reason (sale, option exercised, etc) and I can sell calls against them. Seems like a no brainer. Is there a downside I'm not seeing? Can't vote your shares when loaned. Also, cant chose a tax lot to sell. I was told you can chose the tax lot after settlement, but I don't know how to do that. |
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Originally Posted By Scrote: Can't vote your shares when loaned. Also, cant chose a tax lot to sell. I was told you can chose the tax lot after settlement, but I don't know how to do that. Doesn’t apply to SPCX, but you also lose tax advantages. You get the money amount of your dividends, but they are not qualified. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: What’s a typical range of parameters of a short in either percent, dollars or timeline for a short to inflict pain or other? Good question, I don’t have an answer. A lot depends on the individual speculator. It is subjective how much of a loss begins to cause pain. The type of speculation enters into that also. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: Fidelity is now offering 1.5% to loan your space x shares. This is interesting and piqued my interest. My hold period is 1 year and 1 day as my shares are sitting ideal. I’ve got 2,500 shares at fidelity. Could I do a portion or dynamically lend over time or other? What’s the downside to lending them? |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: This is interesting and piqued my interest. My hold period is 1 year and 1 day as my shares are sitting ideal. I’ve got 2,500 shares at fidelity. Could I do a portion or dynamically lend over time or other? What’s the downside to lending them? https://www.fidelity.com/trading/fully-paid-lending Apparently there is no practical downside for average investors - you can sell the shares or sell calls on the shares as well as stop loaning them out anytime you want. |
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Big week. August 6th opening at 9:30am. Gonna be a reckoning or a squeeze!! August 4th then the 6th |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: This is interesting and piqued my interest. My hold period is 1 year and 1 day as my shares are sitting ideal. I’ve got 2,500 shares at fidelity. Could I do a portion or dynamically lend over time or other? What’s the downside to lending them? Have you loaned yours? |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: Up to 1.625%. Have you loaned yours? Interesting. Thanks for the heads up. I'm real curious the price after the 6th, lockup periods etc etc. That's going to be very wild one way or another. Late this afternoon I'll look into loaning etc. If it holds true, I'll probably go that route. It's free money but I'm not selling for another 340+ days so small downside. |
Numbers are out. Double beat. Call should be interesting.  AMD & SPACEX EARNINGS LIVE | MARKET CLOSE |
We posted our second quarter 2026 financial and operational results → https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/SpaceX-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results.pdf Q2 highlights: - Demonstrated the power of extreme vertical integration, delivering revenue growth of 92% year-over-year across Space, Connectivity, and AI - Completed two successful Starship V3 flight tests in the past 90 days, advancing towards full and rapid reusability - Closed multiple industry-leading Cloud Services Agreements resulting in $14.1 billion of contracted sales - Announced agreement to acquire Cursor for $60 billion to accelerate the AI enterprise opportunity - Released our most powerful AI model yet with Grok 4.5 in July - Delivered 66% revenue and 79% income from operations growth year-over-year for the Connectivity segment, driven by a doubling of Starlink Subscribers and continued momentum in Enterprise & Government - Awarded over $6 billion in multi-year U.S. government contracts for Starshield As compared to the same quarter last year: - Revenues of $7.8 billion, up 92% from $4.1 billion - Net loss of $541 million, an improvement of $467 million from net loss of $1.0 billion - Adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion, up 191% from $1.2 billion Thank you to the SpaceX team, and all our customers and investors for a great quarter! |
$SPCX - SPACEX POSTS BIG REVENUE BEAT, AI LOSSES NARROW Results 🔸Adj. EPS: -$0.09 vs. -$0.29 est. 🔸Revenue: $7.8B vs. $6.82B est. (+92% YoY) 🔸Adj. EBITDA: $3.5B vs. $2.0B est. 🔸AI Operating Loss: -$1.26B vs. -$2.39B est. 🔸Cash & Investments: $100B 🔸Backlog: $47.5B 🔸Segment Revenue: Connectivity $4.29B, AI $2.56B, Space $962M 🔸Net Loss: $541M 🔸Capex: $18.4B |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Interesting. Thanks for the heads up. I'm real curious the price after the 6th, lockup periods etc etc. That's going to be very wild one way or another. Late this afternoon I'll look into loaning etc. If it holds true, I'll probably go that route. It's free money but I'm not selling for another 340+ days so small downside. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: Is space x going to go the pltr route for a while? Simply beating expectations isn't enough, they have to shatter them to live up to the expectations? Do you mean in regards to how PLTR traded post IPO or how it’s been trading recently? An interesting conversation could be had for either. |
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Originally Posted By Procat: Do you mean in regards to how PLTR traded post IPO or how it’s been trading recently? An interesting conversation could be had for either. That was the norm for all the earnings calls since I started trading pltr options. Maybe they have bucked that trend with this week's earnings, time will tell. ETA: @SkiandShoot Fidelity is now paying 2% to loan out your space x shares. I'm probably going to do it now. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: Recently. Consistent beat on expectations and often even increasing future guidance but the stock price drops. That was the norm for all the earnings calls since I started trading pltr options. Maybe they have bucked that trend with this week's earnings, time will tell. ETA: @SkiandShoot Fidelity is now paying 2% to loan out your space x shares. I'm probably going to do it now. Thanks for heads up. Looked in to it and as you had mentioned, not that much downside for certain folks. It’s looking like I’ll be giving notice and exiting the workforce in 103 days or so. With that on the table, I’m looking for stability so I’ll probably be sitting tight on this topic. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: It’s looking like I’ll be giving notice and exiting the workforce in 103 days or so. With that on the table, I’m looking for stability so I’ll probably be sitting tight on this topic. Curious about your concerns about "stability"? It appears transparent from the customer side, you can opt out at any time, it doesn't change anything you can do (except voting), and seems like free money. Since you're in it for the long-term and it adds up to mid-high 4-figure dollars per year it seems like a no brainer for you? |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: Curious about your concerns about "stability"? It appears transparent from the customer side, you can opt out at any time, it doesn't change anything you can do (except voting), and seems like free money. Since you're in it for the long-term and it adds up to mid-high 4-figure dollars per year it seems like a no brainer for you? Looking into it, Fidelity keeps saying I don't have shares in demand. I'll just sit tight and fool with it at a later date. Related to the "Stability" statement. We're building 3 buckets based on our annual expenses. Each bucket essentially has "sub buckets" in it with layer or could be defense related to timeline of drawing down. Cash in hand is the lowest risk but no return. One of our accounts, this one referenced is in our "Bucket 1" but way down the list and not going to be tapped until Capital Gains tax versus income tax (related to me not having an income in 2027 as well). Since the SPCX stock has volatility and THEN the lending program has a very low level of risk, that's why I was stating stability. I just don't want to be saying "Welcome to Costco, I Love You" in the back half of 2027. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Looking into it, Fidelity keeps saying I don't have shares in demand. I'll just sit tight and fool with it at a later date. Related to the "Stability" statement. Sounds complicated, I asked because apparently lending shares is seamless to you and doesn’t restrict what you can do with them so it seems like guaranteed income with zero risk. |