School me on individual stock investments (Page 2 of 2)
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Originally Posted By KILLERB6: Timing entries and exits into individual stocks (or anything for that matter) sound great…at first: “I’ll take the middle 80% and let someone else have the first and last 10%”…doesn’t work. You need that first and last 10%. Respectfully disagree. Lots of traders who rely on technical analysis won’t even consider entering a position until it shows a reversal from a downtrend. Helps avoid the trap of trying to catch a falling knife as they say. On the other end if the planned exit is a previously established level of resistance it’s common to set your limit sell order a little bit shy of the resistance level incase it comes up short. |
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Originally Posted By wildearp: Same with Casino dwellers.  Originally Posted By wildearp: Originally Posted By searchin4shacks: Keep buying the S&P500 index. Your friend brags when he makes money. You won't hear from him when he loses money. Getting rich quick very seldomly works over time. It’s essentially a mathematical certainty that between transactions costs and taxes, (in before) day traders claiming to make a killing…aren’t. How do I know? I’ve done it. Trading everything under the sun when I was younger; stocks, bonds (where, BTW, the real $ can be made), foreign currencies, arbitrage, gold, soy beans, oil, yes, even orange juice futures. And, as stated, if you’re going to be a trader, you have to be a good trader and you have to do it forever. Make a killing (or more likely not) in a position, close it out and now you have to do it all over again…in perpetuity. Much easier and lest costly to buy and hold and, in the long run, more profitable. |
I wanted a mission, and for my sins, they gave me one.
No rules today, sport…just orders.
It’s not about how many people you kill, it’s about how many you save.
No rules today, sport…just orders.
It’s not about how many people you kill, it’s about how many you save.
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Originally Posted By Procat: Respectfully disagree. Lots of traders who rely on technical analysis won’t even consider entering a position until it shows a reversal from a downtrend. Helps avoid the trap of trying to catch a falling knife as they say. On the other end if the planned exit is a previously established level of resistance it’s common to set your limit sell order a little bit shy of the resistance level incase it comes up short. Statistically it’s been proven that (because the market tends to make most of its moves in a relatively low number of trading days hence) missing even a small percentage of a stock’s/market move (i.e. trying to time the market) results in below market returns. If you disagree, then you must not recognize that the market is a zero sum game (i.e. for every winner there must be a loser) and after transaction costs and taxes, it’s a negative sum game. Put in a more understandable context, if historically 90% of money managers underperform the market, what chances do retail investors have? You can disagree, but statistics are…statistics. I’ll stick with statistics vs. feelz. |
I wanted a mission, and for my sins, they gave me one.
No rules today, sport…just orders.
It’s not about how many people you kill, it’s about how many you save.
No rules today, sport…just orders.
It’s not about how many people you kill, it’s about how many you save.
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Originally Posted By KILLERB6: If you disagree, then you must not recognize that the market is a zero sum game (i.e. for every winner there must be a loser) and after transaction costs and taxes, it’s a negative sum game. The market is not a zero sum game. If it were the total market cap would not grow over time. Which we can definitely see that total market cap grows faster than inflation in the long run. Investor’s performance is a zero sum game. If Bob does very well then someone did less well. Doesn’t mean they lost money, (they probably did, but it’s not required). It means that Bob may have had a 30% annual return while Sally had a 5% annual return. (Or a 10% loss, but it’s not mathematically required to be a loss). |
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Thanks everyone for the discussion and advice. My thought process over the years was to mainly hold sp500 index funds and play with a few stocks. As a technology person, I bought Tesla, Nvidia, intel, and lucid (ouch) a while ago and I’m quite a bit up on it. Sp500 has been good to me and slowly but surely helped me out more than I could have on my own. I don’t have the time to stare at the market all day, my friend does and it’s paying off to the point where he doesn’t even want to work. Which is fine but I’d like to focus on a skill and keep money flow and build my reputation. I don’t mind volatility, as retirement has gone, I see bigger ups and bigger downs but I’m holding for a few decades. I forgot I owned intel and Nvidia until a month or two ago and I was pleasantly surprised. I bought them because I knew them and what they are. Watching cybersecurity get hit these past few months because of AI making security obsolete has been one of the dumbest things I’ve heard/seen in awhile. Makes me wonder if I’m the dumb one haha. |
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Originally Posted By RandyLahey01: My thought process over the years was to mainly hold sp500 index funds and play with a few stocks. As a technology person, I bought Tesla, Nvidia, intel, and lucid (ouch) a while ago and I’m quite a bit up on it. Sp500 has been good to me and slowly but surely helped me out more than I could have on my own. Sounds like a good approach to me. I sort of do it the other way around. I hold a lot of QQQ and XLK. Then I concentrate on individual stocks which may or may not be tech stocks, since I am not a tech guy. At 70, I am still learning things. Beware of people who tell you that their method is the only way. Happy investing! Happy speculation too! |
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I agree, it's best to diversify not only in what you hold but your approach. I break mine up into 3 sections. Options I trade in and out of, if not daily then every few days. These are usually index funds or UOA options. Stocks or options that I hold for weeks or months and collect covered call premiums on. Leaps that I strictly sell CC on and hold deep in the money and at least 1.5-2 years out. That strategy is pretty consistently a 50%+ return. |
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Originally Posted By grendelbane: The market is not a zero sum game. If it were the total market cap would not grow over time. Which we can definitely see that total market cap grows faster than inflation in the long run. Investor’s performance is a zero sum game. If Bob does very well then someone did less well. Doesn’t mean they lost money, (they probably did, but it’s not required). It means that Bob may have had a 30% annual return while Sally had a 5% annual return. (Or a 10% loss, but it’s not mathematically required to be a loss). |
I wanted a mission, and for my sins, they gave me one.
No rules today, sport…just orders.
It’s not about how many people you kill, it’s about how many you save.
No rules today, sport…just orders.
It’s not about how many people you kill, it’s about how many you save.
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If I had to start today, I go with the following: 20% in a solid S&P500 Index fund 40% in mutual funds that diversify across sectors, tech, pharma, utilities 20% in Money Market to take adavantage of interest rates and to keep some assets liquid 20% in stocks of companies the government cant let fail and are also the big political donors. Auto, pharmaceutical, insurance, defense, utilities, etc. Maybe 1 dark horse long shot that COULD pay off. Mine is SWBI. From what I've read and seen, you'll be diversified and insulated from most market fluctuations except for the major ones that take everyone down. If you want to take your chances at day trading and picking winners, go for it. Just be prepared to lose everything you put in. |
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Originally Posted By PKT1106: If you want to take your chances at day trading and picking winners, go for it. Just be prepared to lose everything you put in. That’s happened several times. It can also happen with long term holdings. BTW, I usually don’t try to pick winners. I am usually happiest when my underlying doesn’t move very far. |
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I buy individual stocks and have had some winners and many losers. I bought 200 shares of Micron at $69, sold it all at $237 and thought I was a genius. It's now at $638. Going forward I'll probably get more into funds than single stocks. |
My Dad: with respect to your chosen profession son, do what you want to do, who you want to do it for and where you want to do it.
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Originally Posted By Mike_48: I buy individual stocks and have had some winners and many losers. I bought 200 shares of Micron at $69, sold it all at $237 and thought I was a genius. It's now at $638. Going forward I'll probably get more into funds than single stocks. Up 3.5x is nothing to be mad at. Hindsight is 20/20. Take the gains and minimize the losses. |
A man of much courage and superb equipment
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Originally Posted By RandyLahey01: It seems like everything is too high right now for any 3-6 month investments. It often seems like that until 3-6 months later. |
History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which Trump is always right.
Modern life is one steep, perpetual tax on the mathematically impaired
Modern life is one steep, perpetual tax on the mathematically impaired
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Originally Posted By Mike_48: I buy individual stocks and have had some winners and many losers. I bought 200 shares of Micron at $69, sold it all at $237 and thought I was a genius. It's now at $638. Going forward I'll probably get more into funds than single stocks. Not only did you miss some on both ends, you now have to redeploy your capital (less taxes if applicable) and hopefully do better this time. I have a stock right now that I am doing something similar with; one of the few I actively trade due to its volatility. Started out as a crypto-related penny stock. I have been trading a small % of my core shares with the crypto swings but lately it’s been gaining traction and really advancing. I have stops on both sides and the upside sells keep triggering. I’m getting close to dipping into my core holdings with the point being, instead of selling on the way up, I should have just waited until today to sell, right? Or maybe tomorrow? Or the next day? |
I wanted a mission, and for my sins, they gave me one.
No rules today, sport…just orders.
It’s not about how many people you kill, it’s about how many you save.
No rules today, sport…just orders.
It’s not about how many people you kill, it’s about how many you save.
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Originally Posted By Bohr_Adam: It often seems like that until 3-6 months later. |
I wanted a mission, and for my sins, they gave me one.
No rules today, sport…just orders.
It’s not about how many people you kill, it’s about how many you save.
No rules today, sport…just orders.
It’s not about how many people you kill, it’s about how many you save.
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: Play with individual stocks if you must. Just remember, for everyone who gets rich quick doing it, lots more people get poor doing it. If you do, don’t use a large portion of your invested money. I wouldn’t use more than maybe 5-10% of your money. And, better be mentally prepared for big losses. And if you do well, don’t get greedy. Slow and steady wins the investing race. This....just like Vegas, you nobody is excited to tell you they lost $10K....but they sure will tell you that they walked away with $1K on that "big win" they had 
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Originally Posted By grendelbane: BTW, I usually don’t try to pick winners. I am usually happiest when my underlying doesn’t move very far. Today’s 0DTE trade was successful. Sold an SPX iron condor for $6.30, bought it back 2 hours 7 minutes later for $2.50. SPX moved from about 7235 to about 7256. Day trading victories are more common than defeats, but the defeats are usually large enough to pull your return down to double digits. Lots of fun, though. |
| I'm still thinking about ABT - Abbott Labs. They have been crushed to a one year low ($86) and pay a 2.88 percent dividend with a PE of 24. They are one of the dividend "aristocrats" and were around $129 back in January. It's solid company but if I buy it, I'm sure it will go lower. |
My Dad: with respect to your chosen profession son, do what you want to do, who you want to do it for and where you want to do it.
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Originally Posted By RandyLahey01: To clarify, I’m always DCA in my retirement accounts and I never miss a buy high or low. When it’s lower, I buy more. Savings account is the hard part to know when. Sounds good. Contrary to many I believe diversity is desirable in investing. Use several approaches and philosophies. Find one you like that you are good at, you can overweight it. Don’t like it, or not good at it? You can drop it. Don’t believe that you have to stick to one rigid path to be successful. |
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Originally Posted By Mike_48: I'm still thinking about ABT - Abbott Labs. They have been crushed to a one year low ($86) and pay a 2.88 percent dividend with a PE of 24. They are one of the dividend "aristocrats" and were around $129 back in January. It's solid company but if I buy it, I'm sure it will go lower. Here’s a question: which strategy, in the long run, results in higher returns, buying at a 52-week low or buying at a 52-week high? The answer will surprise you. Hint: there is a reason why that stock is at a 52-week low and another is at a 52-week high. |
I wanted a mission, and for my sins, they gave me one.
No rules today, sport…just orders.
It’s not about how many people you kill, it’s about how many you save.
No rules today, sport…just orders.
It’s not about how many people you kill, it’s about how many you save.
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If you don't know anything about 'individual stock investments' you're better off just sticking to ETF's. With that said you can still go aggressive/focused. VGT, SMH, QQQM, etc. are some big ones that have been running quite well. If your friend really is averaging 60% see if he'll let you copy his trades. If I were you I'd invest into ETFs as a base and do a deep dive into crypto for single buy & hold positions and trades. You can do stock trading but there is a lot more upside to crypto markets. Just watch the trends. Originally Posted By hammer1995: LOL. If you could consistently get returns of 25% annually you would be running a hedge fund, not posting on ARFCOM. The overwhelming majority of professional money managers underperform the S&P every year. My average return since I began investing is 22%. That was massively dragged down by going too conservative to start. And then making a few mistakes along the way. I've had years where I did 50-60% during strong bull runs. Traditional investment advice is work 40+ years. Invest a percent of your income into a diversified portfolio, make a conservative 10% per year. Retire at 70 years old... There are literally new generation investors retiring by 25-30 years old. I'm on track to retire in 10 years. One more 'good' crypto bull run that might get cut in half... Maybe I'm smart. Maybe I'm lucky. Maybe a bit of both. But one thing I have learned is don't take financial advice from people who have to clock into a job to earn a pay check. |
A man of much courage and superb equipment
Joined:
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Posts:
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EE: 0% (0)
VA, USA
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Originally Posted By ICEAGE: If you don't know anything about 'individual stock investments' you're better off just sticking to ETF's. With that said you can still go aggressive/focused. VGT, SMH, QQQM, etc. are some big ones that have been running quite well. If your friend really is averaging 60% see if he'll let you copy his trades. If I were you I'd invest into ETFs as a base and do a deep dive into crypto for single buy & hold positions and trades. You can do stock trading but there is a lot more upside to crypto markets. Just watch the trends. My average return since I began investing is 22%. That was massively dragged down by going too conservative to start. And then making a few mistakes along the way. I've had years where I did 50-60% during strong bull runs. Traditional investment advice is work 40+ years. Invest a percent of your income into a diversified portfolio, make a conservative 10% per year. Retire at 70 years old... There are literally new generation investors retiring by 25-30 years old. I'm on track to retire in 10 years. One more 'good' crypto bull run that might get cut in half... Maybe I'm smart. Maybe I'm lucky. Maybe a bit of both. But one thing I have learned is don't take financial advice from people who have to clock into a job to earn a pay check. Originally Posted By ICEAGE: If you don't know anything about 'individual stock investments' you're better off just sticking to ETF's. With that said you can still go aggressive/focused. VGT, SMH, QQQM, etc. are some big ones that have been running quite well. If your friend really is averaging 60% see if he'll let you copy his trades. If I were you I'd invest into ETFs as a base and do a deep dive into crypto for single buy & hold positions and trades. You can do stock trading but there is a lot more upside to crypto markets. Just watch the trends. Originally Posted By hammer1995: LOL. If you could consistently get returns of 25% annually you would be running a hedge fund, not posting on ARFCOM. The overwhelming majority of professional money managers underperform the S&P every year. My average return since I began investing is 22%. That was massively dragged down by going too conservative to start. And then making a few mistakes along the way. I've had years where I did 50-60% during strong bull runs. Traditional investment advice is work 40+ years. Invest a percent of your income into a diversified portfolio, make a conservative 10% per year. Retire at 70 years old... There are literally new generation investors retiring by 25-30 years old. I'm on track to retire in 10 years. One more 'good' crypto bull run that might get cut in half... Maybe I'm smart. Maybe I'm lucky. Maybe a bit of both. But one thing I have learned is don't take financial advice from people who have to clock into a job to earn a pay check. When did you begin investing? |
History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which Trump is always right.
Modern life is one steep, perpetual tax on the mathematically impaired
Modern life is one steep, perpetual tax on the mathematically impaired
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Originally Posted By ICEAGE: I'm on track to retire in 10 years. One more 'good' crypto bull run that might get cut in half... Maybe I'm smart. Maybe I'm lucky. Maybe a bit of both. But one thing I have learned is don't take financial advice from people who have to clock into a job to earn a pay check. How can you tell someone has to clock into a job to earn a paycheck? |
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Originally Posted By grendelbane: How can you tell someone has to clock into a job to earn a paycheck? Probably not the most eloquent way to put it but I feel like I know what the poster meant by that comment. I come from a family of evangelical passive index investors so I catch grief all the time for my investing style. It’s wild being retired and having someone 10+ years older lecture you when they still have to go to work everyday. |
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Originally Posted By grendelbane: I’m retired also, but when I was working I like to think I gave good advice. It worked for me, anyway. I feel like lots of the issue comes down to people who don’t acknowledge that there are many paths to success. This is further complicated by the fact that we all have different ideas about what that success even looks like. Such people have to shout down anyone with a different approach to validate their own. With investing you see this a lot with passive index investors. I’ve heard some downright nasty stuff where people were rooting for someone to lose money so that they would just “VOO and chill”. That said I’ve always looked forward to what you’ve had to say in threads that touch money @grendelbane |
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When someone tells you they have consistent 60% returns (or whatever high rate they claim) ask them to show you their portfolio and match what they are doing. Ask them to give you an heads up every time they make a trade so you can too. If they are really making 60% returns, it should be easy for you to match them. I suspect in most cases you’ll find they aren’t making close to that. And if they are, well now you are too. If someone claims high returns but is unwilling to tell you what they bought to get those high returns, they are full of shit. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By searchin4shacks: Keep buying the S&P500 index. Your friend brags when he makes money. You won't hear from him when he loses money. Getting rich quick very seldomly works over time. this but buy some other stuff that covers sectors you think might do well such as tech, semiconductors, or btc (VGT, SOXX, IBIT, etc.) |
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: When someone tells you they have consistent 60% returns (or whatever high rate they claim) ask them to show you their portfolio and match what they are doig. If they are claiming consistent returns run away quickly. Even if they claim they are close to SPY. Remember Bernie Madoff. He claimed consisten but not high returns. It led to his downfall. |
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Originally Posted By grendelbane: If they are claiming consistent returns run away quickly. Even if they claim they are close to SPY. Remember Bernie Madoff. He claimed consisten but not high returns. It led to his downfall. Definitely. No reputable investment firms will guarantee returns. They will show you what they have been able to do for clients in the past but will usually follow up with something like “past performance is not a guarantee of future performance”. Run fast and far from anyone who promises unusually high gains. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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The OP never said consistent 60% returns, he just said the guy was up 60% TTM. Even if you look at high fliers like retail investing legend Chris Camillo it’s not going to be consistent chasing gains like that. Guy has an average annualized return over 70% for a period of nearly 20 years and he’s very forthcoming though that he’s had years that were flat and others where he better than doubled his net worth. |
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The other friend of mine that was talking this way just told me he lost “everything” on Friday. He was doing really good a few weeks ago. Even bought a fancy new car. Sounds like yall are right. The one that was making 60% just made 100% off of Google. I’m almost up 100% on PANW as well but I don’t have nearly as much invested into PANW as he did in Google. |
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Originally Posted By RandyLahey01: The other friend of mine that was talking this way just told me he lost “everything” on Friday. He was doing really good a few weeks ago. Even bought a fancy new car. Sounds like yall are right. The one that was making 60% just made 100% off of Google. I’m almost up 100% on PANW as well but I don’t have nearly as much invested into PANW as he did in Google. Ever watched Back to the Future II? Biff gets the sports almanac and gets rich betting on sports. If I could go forward in time, I’d bring back 20 years of stock market results. I’d own Biff. Unfortunately, we don’t get to see the future of stock market gains. So, we have to invest knowing we don’t know the future. If you want to play with some money….do it. Just keep your core money in stable investments (as stable as the market can be!) Play with your play money but keep your anchor positions stable. You won’t make as much as the people who risk it all and win big but you also won’t lose it all like your friend did either. I think trying for big gains on 5-10% of your money is fine. I wouldn’t play with more than 10%. If you have $1mil, that’s still playing with $50k-$100k. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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I'm not pulling down anywhere near the $$ the Op quoted from his friend. But 80% of my portfolio is in individual stocks. I think I generally do better than index funds. The S&P500 market doesn't have much breadth these days. I'm not holding dogs dragging down my overall returns. 
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Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it..
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Originally Posted By Waldo: I'm not pulling down anywhere near the $$ the Op quoted from his friend. But 80% of my portfolio is in individual stocks. I think I generally do better than index funds. The S&P500 market doesn't have much breadth these days. I'm not holding dogs dragging down my overall returns. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/422/Screenshot_2026-05-20_at_06-06-06_Benefi-3765332.png What individual stocks do you have? |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: What individual stocks do you have? At the moment? (In no particular order or weight). MO AM RDW FE KTOS BHP AXON COPX BHP QQQM NOW ENB (I may have forgotten a few) I deploy my capital to capture gains and actually sell to do so. Some things are decent buy and hold,(until they become range bound, for instance.) AM is one of those. I made a shit load off of it, but it's had it's run. Pays decent dividends but I could use that $$ elsewhere. |
Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it..
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Originally Posted By Mike_48: I buy individual stocks and have had some winners and many losers. I bought 200 shares of Micron at $69, sold it all at $237 and thought I was a genius. It's now at $638. Going forward I'll probably get more into funds than single stocks. |
My Dad: with respect to your chosen profession son, do what you want to do, who you want to do it for and where you want to do it.
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Originally Posted By Mike_48: OMG. Micron is now almost at 1000 and some analysts are saying it could easily double from here. Looks like I may have made well over a $100K mistake in selling that one if it keeps going up, maybe more. I've sold a whole shit load of stocks that looking back on, I wish I wouldn't have. But, I sold them at a profit, swept the $ into ready cash and bought the next thing. Always be moving forward. Capture your gains. |
Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it..