S&P500 Inclusion: Rolling Thread? (Page 2 of 2)
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Chevron bought Hess so we might have another non rebalance addition, possibly tonight. Bought another 100 shares of HOOD for the hell of it. ETA: Vlad got an adult haircut….bullish? Attached File ETA #2: Block / $XYZ replaces Hess |
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Yahoo article on the Paramount acquisition potentially opening up another spot in the index. Article Names Robinhood or AppLovin as potential replacements. |
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Not finding anything official yet but hearing chatter that IBKR / Interactive Brokers is replacing Walgreens in the S&P. Edit: Attached File |
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FYI In less than 48 hours we get the announcement on the September rebalance, usually hits 30-60 minutes after the close. Any bets? $APP is the clear favorite for inclusion with $160B+ market cap. $HOOD is still my favorite horse in this race but with $IBKR getting in I question if they’d add another broker so soon. |
 S&P 500 REBALANCE LIVE | What Company will get added to the Index Unconfirmed: Applovin, Robinhood & Emcor in |
| I’m really curious how HOOD trades the rest of the month. Obviously all the S&P tied funds have to allocate but the institutional ownership is already pretty high. If the growth oriented funds that already hold it don’t think the party’s over yet there could be a lot of buying pressure on the smaller part of the float that’s actually offered for sale. |
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herpn and derpin baby!! dats a big one time purchase there. Attached File |
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Pretty sure Robinhood is having an event today in Las Vegas. Curious if that buying pressure is due to S&P inclusion or did they unveil something new. ETA Caught a bit of the livestream of the event. Saw them demonstrating a prototype of their Cortex product which is essentially an AI stock screener. Not going to lie it was pretty impressive. |
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Next company I’m setting my sights on is $SOFI. I’m sure @The_Master_Shake will give me some grief about this one because I held it from $7 up to $15 and watched it keep running up to $26.xx where it is today. Within the retail community that follows it there seems to be some debate on whether it should be seen as a bank or a tech company. I don’t agree with the tech argument but as a bank they’re showing strong growth. SOFI is technically eligible for inclusion now but the market cap has only recently gotten high enough to qualify. S&P Global will no doubt want to see them maintain or grow that market cap for a while before they seriously consider it. If everything stays on track I’d guess that it gets added during the June or September 2026 rebalances. In the meantime if we get the rates cuts that are being predicted this should be a significant tailwind for financials like SOFI between now and then. From student loan refinances to personal loans they should see a fair amount of new business. |
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Originally Posted By Procat: Next company I’m setting my sights on is $SOFI. I’m sure @The_Master_Shake will give me some grief about this one because I held it from $7 up to $15 and watched it keep running up to $26.xx where it is today. Within the retail community that follows it there seems to be some debate on whether it should be seen as a bank or a tech company. I don’t agree with the tech argument but as a bank they’re showing strong growth. SOFI is technically eligible for inclusion now but the market cap has only recently gotten high enough to qualify. S&P Global will no doubt want to see them maintain or grow that market cap for a while before they seriously consider it. If everything stays on track I’d guess that it gets added during the June or September 2026 rebalances. In the meantime if we get the rates cuts that are being predicted this should be a significant tailwind for financials like SOFI between now and then. From student loan refinances to personal loans they should see a fair amount of new business. I'm def bullish on SOFI! It's one of my few strong conviction stocks, but it has run a bit so it's tough to tell people to invest at ATH's What I do like though is that they have a bank charter, they were an early adopter Crypto (had to back off due to previous regulatory uncertainty) and Anthony Noto is getting more and more active in the investor relations sphere. Couple this with future S&P inclusion and insane membership growth and it feels like a couple years from now they could easily be a top 20 bank (which would mean a 3X from where they are at today). If they manage to become a top 10 bank they do a 6X from here If I was more savvy like yourself I'd probably buy some leaps. Also, did you see Grab broke out today? |
Look, yes, I have banged HUNDREDS of broads. INTERNATIONALLY. But know this - I wrap my rascal, TWO TIMES, cuz I like it to be joyless and without sensation. It's a way of punishing supermodels.
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Originally Posted By Procat: Next company I’m setting my sights on is $SOFI. I’m sure @The_Master_Shake will give me some grief about this one because I held it from $7 up to $15 and watched it keep running up to $26.xx where it is today. Within the retail community that follows it there seems to be some debate on whether it should be seen as a bank or a tech company. I don’t agree with the tech argument but as a bank they’re showing strong growth. SOFI is technically eligible for inclusion now but the market cap has only recently gotten high enough to qualify. S&P Global will no doubt want to see them maintain or grow that market cap for a while before they seriously consider it. If everything stays on track I’d guess that it gets added during the June or September 2026 rebalances. In the meantime if we get the rates cuts that are being predicted this should be a significant tailwind for financials like SOFI between now and then. From student loan refinances to personal loans they should see a fair amount of new business. You do a bang up job on research, critical thinking and then acting on your words. The thing I'm struggling with on this play is "what is their real competitive advantage?" "How or why are they really any different from all the other megabanks or fintech companies so their growth will outpace (profit and share price) their competitors?" It's clear for a few of the cases such as: HOOD RKLB PLTR SpaceX But Sofi, I just am not seeing it? Do i need enlightening? |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: You do a bang up job on research, critical thinking and then acting on your words. The thing I'm struggling with on this play is "what is their real competitive advantage?" "How or why are they really any different from all the other megabanks or fintech companies so their growth will outpace (profit and share price) their competitors?" It's clear for a few of the cases such as: HOOD RKLB PLTR SpaceX But Sofi, I just am not seeing it? Do i need enlightening? Procat will do a better job responding (and I know you also have more investment experience than myself) but I'll throw my .02 in just as an early SOFI investor. I see the membership growth and just think to myself this will be a monster of a bank in the next 5-10 years (hopefully with that tech multiple) Banks are sticky in that once you get someone as a customer the retention rate is really high. SOFI is the younger generation's bank and once they are in that ecosystem they are then offered all of the traditional financial products a normal bank would offer coupled with a wide array of newer offerings like Crypto, IPO investing, fractional investing, and options trading. I can't think of another bank that does this as seamlessly so I feel some sort of tech multiple is justified. Lots of other stuff to touch on (their position on Stablecoins, Anthony Noto's leadership, previous flexibility going from a Student Loan company to a bank) but high level If SOFI continues to be a bank which receives the tech multiple (especially if they manage to do Crypto right) coupled with the explosive membership growth then they have a ton of runway I don't know if I'd be buying at ATH's but with rate cuts coming and eventual S&P inclusion. . . . who knows. I found out about SOFI years ago from "Future Investing" on YT who covers the Fintech space weekly. He's a smart dude and worth an occasional watch for a deep dive. |
Look, yes, I have banged HUNDREDS of broads. INTERNATIONALLY. But know this - I wrap my rascal, TWO TIMES, cuz I like it to be joyless and without sensation. It's a way of punishing supermodels.
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Couple months ago I read the notes on an investors’ call with Robinhood and it sounded like they were planning to do everything a traditional* bank does, in the near future. I don’t know enough about the fintech/banking industry to speculate too much on whether that will step on Sofi’s toes or not. But maybe. It sounds like there is, or will be, a lot of overlapping services. *edit: Except for brick ‘n mortar stuff. |
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Originally Posted By 1168RGR: Couple months ago I read the notes on an investors’ call with Robinhood and it sounded like they were planning to do everything a traditional* bank does, in the near future. I don’t know enough about the fintech/banking industry to speculate too much on whether that will step on Sofi’s toes or not. But maybe. It sounds like there is, or will be, a lot of overlapping services. *edit: Except for brick ‘n mortar stuff. Sofi doesn't have brick and mortar locations, that's why they are considered more of a capital light bank And you're right, there's a lot of crossover between the two |
Look, yes, I have banged HUNDREDS of broads. INTERNATIONALLY. But know this - I wrap my rascal, TWO TIMES, cuz I like it to be joyless and without sensation. It's a way of punishing supermodels.
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: You do a bang up job on research, critical thinking and then acting on your words. The thing I'm struggling with on this play is "what is their real competitive advantage?" "How or why are they really any different from all the other megabanks or fintech companies so their growth will outpace (profit and share price) their competitors?" It's clear for a few of the cases such as: HOOD RKLB PLTR SpaceX But Sofi, I just am not seeing it? Do i need enlightening? SOFI’s seeming lack of a moat is what caused me to eject at $15. What changed my mind is management appears to be succeeding in turning SOFI into a one stop shop for financial needs. Their member and revenue growth would seem to indicate their efforts are working. Add a macro environment of falling rates which should boost the entire sector and I feel the next couple years look good for them. Not looking for parabolic stock movement like we’ve seen in some tech names. I posted a real life call debit spread example in the “let’s learn options” thread where I’m only betting on SOFI hitting $40 by the end of 2026. |
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Going to screen cap this since I thought this was a great post from the SOFI sub Mizuho and Needham both raise SoFi's stock price target, with Mizuho giving SoFi the first price target above $30 Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev, a 4.42-Star Wall Street Analyst, kept an Outperform/Buy rating This Morning and raised the SoFi stock price target from $26 to $31. The firm’s analysis indicates that the bank processors, consumer lenders, and exchanges are best positioned to benefit from interest rate cuts. SoFi’s “strong rate-driven outlook” warrants a higher valuation multiple. Kyle Peterson, a 3.64-star Wall Street Analyst at Needham, also raised the price target from $25 to $29 on September 10th with a buy rating. He cited Improvements in funding availability and costs for lending businesses. Needham expects these favorable funding conditions to support stronger growth in SoFi’s lending business, particularly if anticipated interest rate cuts materialize (which happened yesterday) later this year. SoFi is the only Fintech bank that combines a Charter bank, a Financial technology payment processing platform, and Cyberbank Core capabilities. A great portion of its revenue is from fee services. SoFi recently raised full-year guidance to 31 cents. Far above the Wall Street's estimate of 25 cents. "Our biggest challenge beyond 2025, quite frankly, is what not to do. There are more opportunities on the table for us than ever before, it feels like we are just getting started," as stated by Anthony Noto during the most recent earnings conference call. The tech platform business signed deals with Wyndham Hotels, Mercantile Banco, and Direct Express, expecting contributions in 2026. These are just a few of the noteworthy recent deals, as Galileo has 100+ Platform Partners with 158M Accounts. SoFi recently made history as the first US Bank to utilize Blockchain for cross-border money transfers by partnering with Lightspark to power blockchain-enabled international money transfers set for launch later this year. Starting with remittance to Mexico. |
Look, yes, I have banged HUNDREDS of broads. INTERNATIONALLY. But know this - I wrap my rascal, TWO TIMES, cuz I like it to be joyless and without sensation. It's a way of punishing supermodels.
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Placing an order for 1,000 shares now. Edit1: order in a 28.88. We'll see if it gets filled, might adjust it up before COB. The cash funding this was just sitting there earning .00425% per month: so all of $112 per month was being made in a money market account. Time to do better than that. Goal is to do total net worth increase 20% YoY. If this stock can get it to $34.56 by this time next year, that's a win. |
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I bought some more Bitmine (BMNR) today I feel like all the guys who were bullish on Sofi a couple years back (frankly many of which were extremely skeptical of Crypto) are looking at this like it's the next big thing. Only wish I hadn't of gone equal amounts of BMNR and SBET a month back |
Look, yes, I have banged HUNDREDS of broads. INTERNATIONALLY. But know this - I wrap my rascal, TWO TIMES, cuz I like it to be joyless and without sensation. It's a way of punishing supermodels.
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$HOOD & $APP both up around 25-30% since inclusion announcement. HOOD set a new ATH today and is currently has the highest YTD return in the index. APP hit a new ATH yesterday and is currently #6 in YTD performance. Attached File |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Just another day in the HOOD. Last time I was in Mexico PLTR went up $19 in a day. Sitting on the beach south of Cancun today I realized it was a weekday so I checked yahoo finance and saw HOOD up $15. I need to come here more often. |
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Originally Posted By Procat: Last time I was in Mexico PLTR went up $19 in a day. Sitting on the beach south of Cancun today I realized it was a weekday so I checked yahoo finance and saw HOOD up $15. I need to come here more often. Keep making those sort of gains and you can buy yourself a nice little summer home 
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Look, yes, I have banged HUNDREDS of broads. INTERNATIONALLY. But know this - I wrap my rascal, TWO TIMES, cuz I like it to be joyless and without sensation. It's a way of punishing supermodels.
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Rebalance announcement should come out Friday after the close. Not hearing much chatter speculating on changes. Sofi and Reddit bulls routinely mention getting added but IMO they need a few more quarters meeting eligibility before they get considered. ETA : CRH, Carvana & Comfort Systems in LKQ, Mohawk ind, ADV Materials out |
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Originally Posted By Procat: Rebalance announcement should come out Friday after the close. Not hearing much chatter speculating on changes. Sofi and Reddit bulls routinely mention getting added but IMO they need a few more quarters meeting eligibility before they get considered. ETA : CRH, Carvana & Comfort Systems in LKQ, Mohawk ind, ADV Materials out |
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Originally Posted By 1168RGR: Carvana surprised me. Not going to lie, I never paid much attention to them. Last time I took a look at them was when the stock was in the single digits 3 years ago and there was talk about them folding due to overpaying for cars during the pandemic. Congrats to anyone who saw the vision, 100x in 3 years is legendary. |
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Q1 2026 rebalance announcement should be this Friday after the close. Still rooting for SOFI but hearing some chatter about VRT. ETA: Livestream that should have the rebalance names as soon as it comes across the Bloomberg terminal.  Will SOFI Get S&P Inclusion? Let's Find Out LIVE | Ron & Travis Show ETA2: Attached File ETA3: Attached File |
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We get the Q2 rebalance announcement this Friday after the bell. Admittedly I haven’t put a ton of thought into what companies might get added this time. Suspect $SOFI isn’t in the running since they pulled back hard and haven’t met the minimum market cap requirement most of the quarter. There’s buzz about Reddit possibly getting added. Immature I know but I have such a seething hatred for that platform I’ve done zero DD on them as I’ll never buy their stock. $MRVL is probably the most likely candidate that I’m seeing. |
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Originally Posted By grendelbane: That’s a pleasant rumor for me to hear. I hope it happens. I grabbed some shares this morning. I would have rather played it with call debit spreads but it’s run so much lately there’s only a few strikes OTM and the risk reward ratio wasn’t appealing to me. |
Q2 Announcement in the next couple hours. This livestream is covering it.  The Market Close: Tech Gets Hammered, META Dilutes, S&P 500 Inclusion? ETA:Marvell and Flex Set in |
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Tomorrow after the bell we get the September rebalance announcement. Reddit got into the index since the last quarterly rebalance when AvalonBay was acquired. Barrons put out an article yesterday speculating on the rebalance. It’s behind a paywall but from what I’ve seen referenced Bloom Energy, Cheniere, Everpure and Astera Labs are contenders for inclusion. |
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Originally Posted By Procat: Barrons put out an article yesterday speculating on the rebalance. It’s behind a paywall but from what I’ve seen referenced Bloomberg Energy, Cheniere, Everpure and Astera Labs are contenders for inclusion. Cool! I have 2 out of 4. Astera Labs and Bloom Energy. Would make a great start for the weekend. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Still amazing that stupid website is a business, profitable and in the snp500. lol. If there’s one thing I’ve learned about S&P Global’s decision making it’s that they don’t adhere to their own standards. Add to that they operate with zero transparency so you never get an explanation why they make some of their decisions. |
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Originally Posted By grendelbane: Cool! I have 2 out of 4. Astera Labs and Bloom Energy. Would make a great start for the weekend. Grabbed some $BE $240/$250 call debit spreads for January. Figure they have 2 S&P rebalances, one earnings and 4 months to go up <$10. |
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Of course I’m out and about and missed the announcement. Not seeing anything official but I’m reading that BE is in. Not hearing anything on other names. ETA: Still haven’t seen an official release but seeing reports that BE, P and ILMN got in. Saw mentions that Nike and Colgate got removed but not seeing the 3rd. |
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Originally Posted By Procat: Of course I’m out and about and missed the announcement. Not seeing anything official but I’m reading that BE is in. Not hearing anything on other names. ETA: Still haven’t seen an official release but seeing reports that BE, P and ILMN got in. Saw mentions that Nike and Colgate got removed but not seeing the 3rd. Whaaaaa you sure Nike was removed? I was watching Amit's stream and recall BE. Was hoping for SOFI but knew it wasn't going to happen 
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Look, yes, I have banged HUNDREDS of broads. INTERNATIONALLY. But know this - I wrap my rascal, TWO TIMES, cuz I like it to be joyless and without sensation. It's a way of punishing supermodels.
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Originally Posted By Procat: Nike got removed from the S&P 100 same with Colgate. Saw mentioned in a YouTube chat and it didn’t specify. The S&P 500 removals were Builders First Source, Coors and The Trade Desk. Got ya, roger that! I thought we were talking S&P 500 with Nike The 5 year chart on Nike is bonkers. Cautionary tale with a couple well known finance YT'ers taking a bath |
Look, yes, I have banged HUNDREDS of broads. INTERNATIONALLY. But know this - I wrap my rascal, TWO TIMES, cuz I like it to be joyless and without sensation. It's a way of punishing supermodels.
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Originally Posted By The_Master_Shake: The 5 year chart on Nike is bonkers. Cautionary tale with a couple well known finance YT'ers taking a bath Bill Ackman / Pershing Square also went in deep. Never understood the thesis. There’s tons of that crap happening right now though. Look at Burry shorting Nvidia while going long Lululemon. I’m convinced half these guys just do this ridiculous stuff because they know it will get clicks / subscribers to their newsletters. |
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Originally Posted By Procat: Bill Ackman / Pershing Square also went in deep. Never understood the thesis. There’s tons of that crap happening right now though. Look at Burry shorting Nvidia while going long Lululemon. I’m convinced half these guys just do this ridiculous stuff because they know it will get clicks / subscribers to their newsletters. Burry has been on a losing streak as of late. The guy still has legendary status but who shorts PLTR and then buys into "Build a Bear" and Lulu I think you're right in that his revenue model now seems to be his newsletter, which is crazy to me in that's it's like an even more antiquated version of "clicks" He seems to be very partial to consumer facing retail as opposed to more cutting edge industries. |
Look, yes, I have banged HUNDREDS of broads. INTERNATIONALLY. But know this - I wrap my rascal, TWO TIMES, cuz I like it to be joyless and without sensation. It's a way of punishing supermodels.