Posted: 12/15/2025 2:22:09 PM EDT
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Full disclaimer : toal wild-ass guess here. Big tech stocks values are dropping on earnings beats. BTC is sputtering bigly. - even with more big players buying in. I am wondering if we are seeing a forced hand in margins / leverage on this stuff. There's a scent of trouble in the wind economically and all the talk of an AI bubble. I guess that it's a shake out in AI like the dot.com era and we are about to see who the real players are that will propel us into the future. That being said im putting in my buy orders on AVGO / GOOG / NVDA. My strong advice is to NOT do what im doing because I dont do enough hard research into these companies to know better. That is all. |
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I don’t think there is any trouble for the economy in the near future. What specifics on the economy are you seeing that I am not? I’m not saying everything is roses and rainbows but I don’t see economic disaster on the horizon. But always willing to look at anything that might disagree with that. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: I don’t think there is any trouble for the economy in the near future. What specifics on the economy are you seeing that I am not? I’m not saying everything is roses and rainbows but I don’t see economic disaster on the horizon. But always willing to look at anything that might disagree with that. I think the jobs market is shaky from reports of continued layoffs in manufacturing ( Tyson Foods , Deere -which granted are local to me but not irrelevant). But more importantly, something seems to be shaking the Market with regards to semiconductor manufacturers, AI developments, etc. And the precious metals Market run up seems the canary in the coal mine. |
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I’m personally still bullish on the AI trade and critical of most comparisons of the dot com bubble. That said I find the enormous amount of money being bet on OpenAI concerning. I suspect I’m not alone and when Google launched their latest Gemini version some people realized all that money might have been bet on the wrong horse. Hopefully that competition breeds accelerated innovation but as a caution for 2026 I think I’m going to back away from some of the higher beta stuff incase the easy money has already been made. Can’t argue with your stock picks OP, they’ll likely do well. Lots of other moving parts too; interest rates, $7T in money markets that might come looking for a better return, Supreme Court case challenging tariffs, ect. 2026 is bound to be interesting one way or another. Great topic worth discussion. |
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Originally Posted By Procat: I’m personally still bullish on the AI trade and critical of most comparisons of the dot com bubble. That said I find the enormous amount of money being bet on OpenAI concerning. I suspect I’m not alone and when Google launched their latest Gemini version some people realized all that money might have been bet on the wrong horse. Hopefully that competition breeds accelerated innovation but as a caution for 2026 I think I’m going to back away from some of the higher beta stuff incase the easy money has already been made. Can’t argue with your stock picks OP, they’ll likely do well. Lots of other moving parts too; interest rates, $7T in money markets that might come looking for a better return, Supreme Court case challenging tariffs, ect. 2026 is bound to be interesting one way or another. Great topic worth discussion. I was a bit worried last year when Google (stock price)seemed like it was being left behind in the AI race. As it turned out it was (one of) the (many) EU lawsuits holding sentiment down. As soon as there was a settlement, and news that Berkshire bought in, the stock price took off. Then the Gemini news with good reports. I keep thinking that once again Google will be among the top dogs. I cant reject some claims of a "bubble" with money being thrown at nearly every company that claims to have anything to do with AI. But as with the dot.com era there may be too much money margined / leveraged which is inflating stock prices. But also, just like 2000/2001 the innovative companies will withstand any fallout and prosper greatly. I think in the early stages it will be those companies that are able to adapt to common uses for convenience. Office work - like something a Secretary could do. Managing schedules (both home and work). Ordering groceries or Uber Eats. Things like that. Then the Industrial and Commercial Applications in Manufacturing, Maintenance, hell, maybe even Teaching. The trick is to find those Companies to invest in. Personally I kind of like the ones I mentioned. |
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Originally Posted By bondservant2:money margined / leveraged which is inflating stock prices. A) Interest is lower than expected rate of returns. Expected returns from just the SP500 are nearly triple what my current available borrowing rate is. Institutions get even lower rates. No, I’m not advocating for using leverage. B) Low interest rates are inflationary, so most people and organizations that invest, are trying to stay out of cash. So they’re piling money into assets as if inflation were loan interest; see C. C) If someone is buying with borrowed money, they want the highest profit margins…highest expected rate of return minus expected interest. They’re not going to want to pay 4%-5% interest on T-bills or Consumer Staples for a negative or minuscule return. They’re disproportionally buying tech or other speculative stuff. And yeah, that stuff gets hit hard during pullbacks and drawdowns. Even profit-taking action has a habit of hitting stuff with stretched PEs or stuff that has had a 300% runup. I’m not arguing that there is or is not a bubble….I don’t know. Just pointing out some mechanics. Might be preaching to the choir. |
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Originally Posted By 1168RGR: That’s kinda what happens in low interest rate environments. A) Interest is lower than expected rate of returns. Expected returns from just the SP500 are nearly triple what my current available borrowing rate is. Institutions get even lower rates. No, I’m not advocating for using leverage. B) Low interest rates are inflationary, so most people and organizations that invest, are trying to stay out of cash. So they’re piling money into assets as if inflation were loan interest; see C. C) If someone is buying with borrowed money, they want the highest profit margins…highest expected rate of return minus expected interest. They’re not going to want to pay 4%-5% interest on T-bills or Consumer Staples for a negative or minuscule return. They’re disproportionally buying tech or other speculative stuff. And yeah, that stuff gets hit hard during pullbacks and drawdowns. Even profit-taking action has a habit of hitting stuff with stretched PEs or stuff that has had a 300% runup. I’m not arguing that there is or is not a bubble….I don’t know. Just pointing out some mechanics. Might be preaching to the choir. Always good to discuss these things. It can only help |
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Originally Posted By bondservant2: I cant reject some claims of a "bubble" with money being thrown at nearly every company that claims to have anything to do with AI. But as with the dot.com era there may be too much money margined / leveraged which is inflating stock prices. But also, just like 2000/2001 the innovative companies will withstand any fallout and prosper greatly. I think this time around the market is doing a lot better at pricing those more speculative companies appropriately. Theres still tons of trash, don’t get me wrong, but at least they’re usually held as lottery ticket plays incase they actually make it and not viewed as high conviction long term holds. I try to keep in mind that if any of those >$5B market cap “AI” companies had anything of value a bigger player would have already bought them out. As such they’re probably priced where they deserve to be. |