Israel currently under attack (Page 1031 of 1034)
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"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
UKMTO confirmation of one ship being attacked Attached File |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 23, 2026 At 10:30 p.m. ET on July 22, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces completed another round of strikes against Iran for the 12th consecutive night. U.S. forces struck Iranian military targets including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites, and air defense assets. The strikes further degrade Iran's ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial vessels. This month, American forces have targeted dozens of Iranian military sites on land while resuming a blockade against Iran at sea. As of today, CENTCOM has redirected nine commercial vessels and disabled one to prevent ships from entering or departing Iranian ports. More than 50,000 U.S. service members are operating across the Middle East and remain highly vigilant, focused, lethal, and ready.
5:22 AM Eastern
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"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
3:45 PM Eastern
Satellite Images Show Iran Is Rebuilding. Fast. Summary Iran has quickly rebuilt infrastructure damaged by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, according to officials and satellite imagery. The quick recovery cuts into claims by President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the bombing campaign was devastating. Israeli officials said airstrikes often only collapsed entry points to mountain missile bases, leaving weapons stored inside intact. Iran has quickly rebuilt infrastructure damaged during the U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign over recent months, from missile bases nestled deep inside mountains to bridges, ports and production facilities, according to Israeli and Western officials and a review of satellite imagery. The faster-than-expected progress worries some Israeli officials. It helps explain Iran’s continued resilience despite an air campaign that involved more than 20,000 strikes at the height of the war and that continues along Iran’s coast in an effort to break Tehran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz. Near Kangavar, in western Iran, satellite imagery from Planet Labs in March showed two tunnel entrances and an access road damaged by airstrikes aimed at blocking access to an Iranian missile base. Within weeks, imagery from Airbus revealed a neatly paved road leading to freshly excavated entrances. In another case, an Israeli military official said Iran repaired a bridge that Israel had struck with three bombs within days, surprising Israeli officials and prompting them to question the effectiveness of their targeting. Planet Labs satellite images from the beginning of July also showed partial reconstruction efforts at a shipyard in the port of Bandar Anzali on the Caspian Sea that is linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the paramilitary group tasked with defending the regime. Israel said it hit dozens of targets there in March, including warships, the port, a command center and a shipyard used to repair and maintain vessels, aiming at a Russia-Iran supply line and calling it one of its most significant attacks of the war. Ran Kochav, a former commander of Israel’s air and missile defense forces, said the rapid recovery is consistent with skills Iran demonstrated in rebuilding its infrastructure and missile stockpile after the 12-day Israel-Iran war last June, before the new war began in February. “They refilled their stockpiles,” he said. “They have very impressive industrialization and reconstruction capabilities.” Iran faces an enormous, costly and time-consuming effort to dig out from under the damage caused by the U.S. and Israeli attacks. But the speedy work across the country cuts into claims by President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that their bombing campaign dealt a devastating blow. The leaders have come under domestic pressure for failing to dislodge Iran’s ruling regime, eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program or reopen the Strait of Hormuz. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the war succeeded in destroying Iran’s missile arsenal and production, sinking its navy, weakening its militia allies and ensuring it won’t possess a nuclear weapon. “This operation was a resounding victory by any objective measure,” she said. The U.S. Central Command, responsible for the Middle East, declined to comment. The office of Israel’s prime minister didn’t respond to a request for comment. Israel’s military declined to comment. Overnight in the region, the U.S. military wrapped up its 12th straight day of strikes hitting the same sorts of targets—missile and drone facilities, operation centers and military infrastructure—that it has been hitting for weeks. Its aim is to break Iran’s hold on the strait after the deal Trump signed in June to reopen it unraveled as Iran stepped up attacks on shipping. Despite the pounding, Iran has continued to land precise hits on ships and carry out missile attacks on U.S. regional allies, such as Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, where an Iranian attack killed three U.S. soldiers over the weekend. “It turns out that the rumors about the end or the significant dwindling of the missiles were wrong,” said Tal Inbar, a senior analyst at the U.S.-based Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance. Iran’s leaders aren’t showing signs of relenting despite the continued attacks. The five-week U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign at the beginning of the war exceeded the pace of recent wars conducted by the U.S. and Israel in the Middle East. It took aim at everything from underground missile cities to steel and aluminum factories. By its end, both Trump and Netanyahu portrayed the campaign as a major setback for Iran. “Iran’s military is a complete and total mess,” Trump posted on social media last month. “Much of it, like their Navy and Air Force, doesn’t even exist anymore—They have been completely defeated.” Netanyahu said Iran’s military capabilities and nuclear and ballistic programs had been set back by many years. “We smashed Iran’s missile production machine,” he said in April. “The Iranians are firing what is left in their arsenal, and the arsenal is emptying out. But they are not producing new missiles.” Israeli military officials have privately voiced frustration with the results of the bombing campaign, pointing to the active rebuilding. One official familiar with the targeting effort thought Israel could have done more damage if it had stayed focused on military sites rather than shifting early in the war to target Iran’s internal security services and even individual checkpoints staffed by the Basij militia in hopes of undermining the regime. “Iran is rebuilding everything,” the official said. “I am very worried.” A second Israeli military official said that Iran was capable of rebuilding almost everything, including missile production, as it still has the know-how. Israel and the U.S. often only succeeded in collapsing entry points to missile bases deep inside mountains rather than destroying them fully, Israeli military officials said. Weapons stored inside these collapsed sites were left intact, and Iran has since been digging them out, they said. A missile base in the southwestern Iranian city of Dezful was struck by Israel in June 2025 and again in early March, when airstrikes buried its entrances, satellite images from Planet Labs show. Three months later, images from Airbus showed that Iran was already digging out multiple tunnel entrances at the site. Another Iranian missile base north of the city of Kermanshah took heavy blows at the beginning of the war, Planet Labs imagery shows. By the first week of June, images distributed by Airbus showed crews had repaired road damage, and trucks visible on satellite images were clearing dirt and reopening collapsed tunnel entrances. Satellite images from Planet Labs also show partial reconstruction in recent weeks near Tehran at Raja Shimi Industries, a plant believed to be involved in the production of missile components, according to a King’s College London report. The images show several new structures that appear to have been rebuilt. Some facilities that make more advanced components needed for manufacturing missiles, such as carbon fiber, might take Iran months if not years to re-establish following Israeli and American strikes, said Jim Lamson, a visiting research fellow at King’s College London and former Central Intelligence Agency analyst who wrote the report. But Iran may have stockpiled those components at underground production facilities that can be used to assemble dozens or hundreds of new missiles and drones in the short term, Lamson said. Israel’s intelligence services believe Iran may have transferred thousands of centrifuges into tunnels inside Pickaxe Mountain, a development that would heighten concerns that it could reconstitute its nuclear program. Iran has demonstrated that it will keep pushing to rebuild its infrastructure and weapons capability however long it takes. “It is a matter of will, time and money,” Inbar said.
Iran flew IRGC commanders, military advisers, and missile and drone equipment to Yemen on July 13 to bolster Houthi capabilities against Red Sea shipping. A Mahan Air flight carrying 10–21 IRGC personnel, including senior commanders, diverted from Sanaa to Hodeidah after a strike on the airport. The cargo reportedly included missile and drone components and gold to fund Houthi operations. Full Reuters article Iran flew Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders, military advisers and missile- and drone-related equipment into Yemen this month, according to four sources, in a move that suggests Tehran is seeking to strengthen the ability of its Houthi allies to threaten Red Sea shipping. Four sources familiar with the matter, including two Iranian sources, Yemen's information minister and a regional security analyst, said Iran transferred the IRGC personnel and military-related equipment on a flight from Tehran to Yemen on July 13, a development that has not been previously reported. The two Iranian sources told Reuters that between 10 and 21 IRGC personnel, including senior commanders, were on the Mahan Air flight. The plane was originally bound for the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa, but diverted to the Red Sea port city of Hodeidah after the airport came under attack by the Saudi-backed Yemeni government. "The IRGC commanders travelled there to support Houthi operations and provide training on new missile systems," one of the sources said, adding that Iran also sent gold on the aircraft to fund Houthi activities. The two Iranian sources spoke on condition of anonymity because of security concerns. The deployment offers fresh evidence of Iran's efforts to bolster the Houthis, who have been in a civil war against the Saudi-backed, internationally recognised Yemeni government for more than a decade and have attacked Gulf neighbours with missiles and drones. Iran's foreign ministry was not immediately available to comment. Tehran has repeatedly denied providing the Houthi movement in Yemen with missile capabilities. Abdel Rahman al-Ahnomi, a Houthi media official who said he was aboard the plane, described the allegations that Iran sent military experts to Yemen as "lies and fabrications", adding that all passengers aboard the plane were civilians. The Houthis have previously denied being an Iranian proxy and said they develop their own weapons. DAYS AFTER COMMANDERS ARRIVED, HOUTHIS LAUNCHED SAUDI BLOCKADE Three days after the flight arrived in Yemen, Reuters reported that Tehran had asked the Houthi movement to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the U.S. struck Iranian power infrastructure, posing a new threat to global energy supplies. On Monday, the group, whose area of control in Yemen overlooks the waterway, announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia in response to the July 13 bombing of Sanaa airport, which they said was carried out by Saudi Arabia. The moves signalled the end of a four-year truce between Riyadh and the Houthis. Their threat to one of the world's top maritime trade routes escalated further on Thursday when the group said it had attacked two Saudi oil tankers. Moammar al-Iryani, information minister in Yemen's Saudi-backed government, confirmed the transfers of Guards personnel and equipment in a telephone interview with Reuters on Wednesday, citing intelligence. "Their mission is to strengthen the militias' military capabilities and prepare them to threaten international maritime security in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait," he said. Mzahem Alsaloum, a security and intelligence analyst who has tracked the Houthis and other Iranian-backed groups for years, also confirmed the IRGC experts' arrival on the July 13 flight. FLIGHT CARRIED MISSILE AND DRONE COMPONENTS, ANALYST SAYS He said some of the cargo included components related to short- and medium-range missiles and drones, weapons systems similar to those previously used in attacks on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. According to Alsaloum, Tehran also sent military advisers to Yemen during a war with Israel last year, routing them through Somalia, a claim that was denied by Tehran. The Houthis had announced direct flights between Sanaa and Tehran earlier this month, saying the service would help break what they described as a Saudi-imposed blockade on Yemen. At a press conference in Tehran on July 20, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the flight to Sanaa on July 13 was intended to take home a Houthi delegation that had gone to Tehran for the funeral of slain Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as Yemeni citizens who had received medical treatment in Iran. On July 3, the aircraft flew the group of about 200 people, including senior officials, women and children, to Iran for the funeral. On July 13, the four sources said, the aircraft returned to Yemen carrying members of the delegation as well as the IRGC commanders and advisers. Before it could land in Sanaa, the Saudi-backed government struck the airport, forcing the aircraft to divert to Houthi-controlled Hodeidah. The Houthi military said the Saudi warplanes that launched the airport attack were forced to leave Yemeni airspace. Writing by Parisa Hafezi, Editing by William Maclean
Attached File
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"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Attached File
As of 8:30 PM Eastern
Attached File |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
OSINT613 MAP: Last night’s U.S. strikes on Iran appear to have been the largest of the latest campaign so far. The pattern of damage also suggests strategic bombers may have been used against several deeply buried missile and military facilities. Reported strike locations: 1. Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province 2. Andimeshk, Khuzestan Province 3. Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province 4. Jask, Hormozgan Province 5. Khondab (outskirts), Markazi Province 6. Khorramabad, Lorestan Province 7. Konarak, Sistan and Baluchestan Province 8. Naeen, Isfahan Province 9. Omidiyeh, Khuzestan Province 10. Qeshm Island, Hormozgan Province 11. Yazd, Yazd Province 12. Zibakenar, Gilan Province Attached File
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"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Full WSJ article below link President Trump was fed up. During a recent meeting in the Oval Office, he launched into a tirade against Iranian leaders, calling them scumbags and lunatics, and unleashing a series of expletives, according to a person who heard the comments. As the war in Iran enters its fifth month, Trump is increasingly frustrated that a conflict he once thought would be over in a matter of weeks has dragged on with no end in sight, administration officials and others close to the president said. Some of Trump’s advisers now worry that the war—which has resulted in higher prices, falling approval ratings and the deaths of more than a dozen U.S. servicemembers—is consuming his presidency and damaging Republicans’ already dim prospects in the coming midterm elections. Trump has been trying to wind down the war for months. He announced a ceasefire in April after he threatened to end Iran’s “whole civilization.” In June, he said the U.S. and Iran had signed a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But the brief periods of calm quickly gave way to continued fighting. The president in recent days has grown skeptical that negotiations with Iran can produce a lasting peace, according to people familiar with the matter. A senior administration official said Trump believes that the only thing Iran understands is military force, adding that he was in “revenge mode” against Tehran. The president, the official said, sees few good options besides continuing strikes. Over the past two weeks, Washington and Tehran have exchanged fire, ramping up the conflict after the fragile ceasefire quickly frayed. On Wednesday, Houthi militants fired on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, sending oil prices skyrocketing. Trump threatened to unleash a “major military punishment” against Iran if Houthi militants continued their attacks. The U.S. is surging forces, medics and weaponry to the Middle East to give Trump more muscular military options should he choose to escalate. Iran has been able to weather previous waves of airstrikes, and a sustained U.S. military campaign risks further eroding munitions stocks and public support. “The United States signed an MOU with Iran and they broke it, shot at commercial ships, and killed American soldiers. President Trump is not going to stand by and allow this terrorist behavior to occur,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. She added that Iran was paying for its behavior and would continue to pay “until they come to the table in what President Trump deems a meaningful way.” The war has ratcheted up tensions with Israel, Trump’s closest partner in the fight. Trump has expressed frustration with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, at times telling aides that he doesn’t want to talk to him or meet with him, the senior administration official said. The Israelis have sought to organize a meeting between Netanyahu and Trump, the official said. Netanyahu was expected to come to the U.S. next week to attend the funeral for Sen. Lindsey Graham, but the plans haven’t been made final. The Israeli Embassy in Washington didn’t comment. The war has taken a personal toll on the president and some of his senior advisers. Some top aides have been advised by intelligence agencies that the Iranians are seeking to kill them and have been told to stop taking car services, according to people familiar with the matter. While he was in Turkey for a summit of international leaders, Trump was briefed on intelligence from Israel that indicated a new Iranian plan to kill him. The plot, which one administration official described as aspirational and other U.S. officials deemed not credible, was one factor in the president’s decision to fly an older version of Air Force One out of Turkey, which shares a border with Iran. Some officials worried that the Qatari-gifted luxury jet that Trump flew on to Turkey lacked sufficient defensive capabilities, The Wall Street Journal previously reported. Trump was furious when the New York Times first reported on the reason for the decision to switch planes. He was frustrated that the news leaked so quickly, arguing to aides that it was a security threat, officials said. Some administration officials have been asked to turn over their phones as the president’s team seeks to determine who leaked the news. Trump has asked his aides for regular updates. As the war lingers, Trump has grown less confident that the U.S. and Iran can find a diplomatic solution to the conflict. He has complained to advisers that it is difficult to know who speaks for top leadership, and every time the U.S. thinks it has made progress at the negotiating table, Iran continues its attacks, according to people familiar with the matter. Last month, the president was so excited at the prospect of signing the memorandum of understanding with Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that he was dismissive of Republican allies who said the Iranians would never stick to the agreement, according to a senior administration official. He wanted it to be over, Trump told them. The president’s two top negotiators, his son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff, still think a deal with the Iranians is possible, the people said. But other advisers have expressed skepticism that a peace agreement is possible. The war is splitting the conservative coalition over which Trump once had an iron grip, worrying some Republicans close to the White House. Longtime Trump allies such as Fox News host Laura Ingraham have used their platforms to express concerns about how the war might affect Republicans in November’s midterm elections. On Monday, she said the “clock is ticking” to the midterms. “Netanyahu has led us into a horrible conflict filled with lies,” Steve Bannon, a longtime Trump adviser, said. “People can see with their own eyes what’s going on.” Top White House aides are trying to pivot to the economy. This week, Trump attended a dignified transfer of the four U.S. servicemembers who were recently killed in the Middle East, then traveled to Georgia where he touted initiatives such as the new Trump accounts to help parents save for their children’s future and address high costs. Also on Wednesday, Trump sought to reassure an audience in Georgia that consumer costs would soon come down. “If you are paying a little bit more—a lot of it’s come down now—we got it coming down very rapidly,” Trump told a crowd at a Georgia high school. Trump told advisers in an Oval Office meeting in June that they needed to pressure gasoline retailers and oil companies to reduce prices and that the companies should do it because of everything he had done for them, according to people familiar with the matter. Aides have convened a series of meetings to discuss ways to try to drive gas prices down before the midterm elections. Trump is less focused on the midterms fallout from the war than are his advisers and Republicans in Congress, according to people who have spoken to him. Trump has privately and publicly remained committed to his view that Iran shouldn’t be able to have a nuclear weapon. And he has told people that he thinks he can break the Iranians’ will through an aggressive bombing campaign, according to a person familiar with his views. “I believe he thinks he gave peace a chance,” said Rep. Michael McCaul (R., Texas), a senior member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “He’s going back to Plan A, which is the military operation.” |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
| Dupe |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Posted in the main Iran thread, but others might find it informative. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy published a paper in 2021 discussing the IRGC and its strategy for the Persian Gulf. It helps explain the difficulties faced in dealing with attacks in the straits. Well worth taking a look at. Here is a direct link to the 87 page PDF. Attached File |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Full article Bahrain and Kuwait secretly sent jets to attack sites inside Iran, their first such direct retaliation against Tehran and an indication of the difficult position Arab states find themselves in as the war grinds on, people familiar with the matter said. The airstrikes early this month targeted drone- and missile-storage depots, among other military sites, some of the people said. The United Arab Emirates—which attacked Iran multiple times early in the war—provided intelligence on targets and defensive air cover for the strikes in a sign of budding Arab cooperation in confronting Iran, those people said. Iran for weeks has focused its retaliatory strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait, both of which host American military bases. The two Persian Gulf states have relatively small air forces, armed with U.S. and European jets, but didn’t want to let Tehran continue to hit them with impunity, the people said. The U.A.E. said it supports a reduction in tensions in the region, including a full opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for Gulf oil exports. Its Foreign Ministry condemned the attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain and said it “stands in full solidarity with these states and reaffirms its support for all measures aimed at safeguarding their security and stability.” Kuwaiti and Bahraini government spokespeople didn’t reply to requests for comment. Their dilemma is reflected more broadly across the Gulf, whose Arab governments are stuck between a war they didn’t want and a much larger and aggrieved neighbor in Iran. Collectively they absorbed the bulk of the punishment inflicted by Iran throughout the war and are now reckoning with the likelihood of an extended standoff that threatens their security and economies. “The war continuing in the manner that it is playing out right now is their worst-case scenario,” said Dina Esfandiary, a Middle East analyst at Bloomberg Economics. “That is because it does not give them the opportunity to rebuild and maintain their image as a haven for stability in an unstable region. It affects their very models.” The U.A.E. got involved in the conflict early on, carrying out dozens of airstrikes against Iran from the beginning of the war and continuing through the day after a ceasefire was announced in April, The Wall Street Journal has reported. Iran has generally avoided striking the country in recent weeks, though it hit two Emirati oil tankers earlier this month. Kuwait and Bahrain are in a particularly tough spot. For decades, neither country has been on good terms with Iran, Esfandiary said, and they have been prime targets in the recent wave of fighting. Now Iran is stepping up its attacks to hit more critical infrastructure. Kuwait’s Foreign Ministry said Sunday that Iran targeted a power plant and water desalination facility, calling it a threat to its citizens and a dangerous escalation. Countries like Oman and Qatar have long triangulated between Iran and the West and have shown little appetite for confrontation with Tehran. Saudi Arabia joined the U.A.E. in attacking Iran earlier in the war but is currently evaluating its position, people familiar with the matter said. Arab governments in the region had hoped the war would end quickly and let them get back to focusing on their economies. But the conflict is now in its fifth month with no sign of either side getting what it wants or backing down. Gulf oil exports have been crippled by Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. A new threat emerged this week with a Red Sea blockade and strikes on shipping by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia. Tourism in the region has dried up, and investment is under pressure. Arab governments are now weighing whether they might need to become more aggressive in trying to pry open their critical trade routes. “I think Gulf countries are beginning to realize that this war will continue for some time now,” said Umer Karim, a researcher focused on Saudi policy and Gulf geopolitics at the University of Birmingham. “This eventually means that they would have to confront Iran openly.” Governments are even starting to countenance the idea of regime change in Tehran, he said, “because existing in the same neighborhood with this Iranian regime will effectively mean subservience to Iranian hegemony.” |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
5:40 PM Eastern
BREAKING: Earlier today, the Houthi proxies of the IRGC Quds Force targeted the Saudi-flagged oil/chemical tanker NCC MASA while it was sailing in the Red Sea. Tonight, Saudi forces are retaliating by heavily targeting the Port of Hodeidah. The port is under intense bombardment and is on fire. The ship sustained minor hull damage but continued to its destination, with its crew safe. It is the second Saudi-linked tanker hit in recent days, following the Encelia strike, as part of the Houthis' declared blockade on Saudi shipping.
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"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
BREAKING: In response to the Saudi airstrikes against Yemen's Port of Hodeidah, the Houthi proxies of the Islamic regime of Iran targeted an oil facility in the industrial area of Jizan, Saudi Arabia, with a ballistic missile. The strike triggered a massive fire at the facility. Unfortunately, the attack is likely to contribute to further increases in global energy prices. |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
BREAKING: The Islamic regime of Iran has opened another front in the war in the Middle East. The Houthi proxies of the IRGC Quds Force have targeted and destroyed a key Saudi Aramco oil facility in Jizan. The facility is burning after being hit by several ballistic missiles launched by the Houthis a few hours ago.
UKMTO notice for ship stopped by US forces yesterday Attached File
Summary Iran is firing its Kheibar Shekan ballistic missiles in complex attacks against U.S. bases, using varying flight paths to confuse air defenses. The Kheibar Shekan can be kept fueled and launched quickly from vehicles to evade U.S. and Israeli warplanes. Analysts say the Kheibar Shekan is far cheaper than the U.S. and Israeli interceptors used to shoot them down. Medium-range ballistic missile In operation: 2022 Range: 900 miles Payload: 990-1,300 lbs. Impact speed: Mach 5 Propulsion: Solid fuel, single stage The Kheibar Shekan missile is the workhorse of Tehran’s arsenal—a cheap, mobile, accurate weapon with a range of at least 900 miles. And recently, Iran has been using it in complex attacks, proving itself to be an adaptable adversary for the U.S. Since the fighting picked back up this month, Iran has been firing the Kheibar Shekan at American bases, U.S. officials said. It is using a combination of different flight paths, maneuvers and speeds to try to confuse U.S. defenses, they say. The U.S. and its partners have shot down most Kheibar Shekans throughout the war, one of the U.S. officials said, but some have gotten through. Unlike Iran’s older missiles that require lengthy prelaunch fueling, military analysts say the Kheibar Shekans can be kept fueled and loaded quickly into trucks or other vehicles for launching in an attempt to evade U.S. and Israeli warplanes seeking to knock out Iranian missile sites. In some variants of the missile, the nose section, which carries the explosive warhead and detaches during the final phase of flight, is equipped with a small engine that makes it capable of adjusting its direction as it nears its target at 6,000 miles an hour, according to analysts and officials. Kheibar Shekan range: 900 miles Ballistic missiles travel into the upper atmosphere or space before plunging back down toward a target, but not all are capable of maneuvering. Military analysts who have studied the Kheibar Shekan said it can vary its trajectory more than some other ballistic missiles in an attempt to make it harder to detect and destroy. Iran is also launching high-speed attack drones and less sophisticated missiles at the same locations it is targeting with the satellite-guided Kheibar Shekans, adapting its tactics throughout the war, the U.S. officials said. Since the ceasefire collapsed, Iran has repeatedly targeted housing areas where U.S. troops stay at bases across the Middle East, officials say. Iran has also gone after the radars that underpin air defenses across the region, a strategy that puts American servicemembers at greater risk, they say. “I think what it tells us is Iran is paying attention, and they’re learning and they’re looking at ways that they can get at us,” said retired Army Gen. Joseph Votel, who has led U.S. Central Command. “This is a military that has a well-developed drone capability, it’s had a missile program, a rocket program for a long period of time. They’ve got a lot of expertise in this area.” Iran was believed to have 2,500 Kheibar Shekans and other medium-range missiles before the war began, according to U.S. and Israeli estimates. It might be assembling more from components stored in underground bases, but the production facilities where engines for the missiles were built have been destroyed, said Fabian Hinz, an independent missile expert. “The Iranians kind of figured out during the war that the Kheibar Shekans are great because it’s pretty cheap to produce, it’s flexible with launch systems, and it’s pretty effective,” said Nicole Grajewski, an expert on Iranian strategy at Sciences Po in Paris. Iran has fired Kheibar Shekans at Israel, which says it shot most of them down. Iran has also claimed that it targeted the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the headquarters of Israel’s air force commander using Kheibar Shekans. Last month, it announced another attack with the missiles, along with jet-powered drones. The results of those attacks couldn’t be determined. The missile is named after the Battle of Khaybar, the 628 campaign in which the Prophet Muhammad’s forces conquered the fortified oasis of Khaybar, then held by Arabian Jews. Iran hasn’t disclosed the cost of a Kheibar Shekan, but analysts said it is far cheaper than the U.S. and Israeli interceptors used to take them down at a cost of between $2 million and $15 million, depending on the system. Iran seems to have improved its missile attacks, likely by studying previous launches and figuring out how to maximize the possibility the weapons will get through, Hinz said. Iran “has seen what types of maneuvers are the most effective ones for overcoming missile defense,” Hinz said. “Every single combat use gives you some sort of data, so that’s very useful for the Iranians.” Iran has long said the Kheibar Shekan can maneuver in the final stage of its flight to evade air defenses, he added. |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Axios, citing two sources familiar with the decision, reports that President Donald J. Trump directed the U.S. military not to conduct strikes against Iran on Friday, ending 13 consecutive nights of U.S. attacks. According to the report, the decision came as Oman continued talks with Iran on a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While the U.S. military remains prepared to resume or escalate operations on short notice, Trump reportedly believes pursuing a diplomatic agreement is currently the "smarter strategy."
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"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
BREAKING: Iran warns Zelenskyy and strongly condemns Ukraine's drone strike on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea early this morning, resulting in the death of one sailor and injury of another, per Iran's Foreign Ministry. Ukraine claims the vessel was under international sanctions for transporting military cargo between Iran and Russia. Iran calls the strike "a violation of Article 2, Paragraph 4 of the UN Charter and an act of aggression that can further fuel and expand the conflict," warning that "the responsibility for the consequences of the Ukrainian regime's leader's adventurism will lie with that regime and its supporters and instigators." If true...
BREAKING: It appears the IRGC Aerospace Force is preparing to retaliate for the attack carried out by Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) against an Iranian cargo ship in the Caspian Sea using one-way attack drones, which killed one civilian sailor on board. Kyiv is approximately 1,850 km from Tabriz, placing it within the range of the IRGC Aerospace Force's Sejjil-2 and Khorramshahr-3/4 ballistic missiles. |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
BREAKING: According to locals in southern Iran, the sound of explosions has been heard in Bandar Abbas, on the Strait of Hormuz. It is unclear whether they were caused by a U.S. military airstrike or by the launch of IRGC missiles targeting a commercial ship attempting to disregard the Islamic regime of Iran's authority over the Strait of Hormuz and transit the waterway without permission.
BREAKING: U.S. CENTCOM is denying that it carried out any airstrikes against targets in Bandar Abbas, southern Iran. If any airstrike did occur, it is certainly carried out by the air forces of the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, or Kuwait, whose fighter jets are currently forward deployed in the United Arab Emirates. |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
7:58 AM
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center has issued an advisory for vessels transiting the Southern Red Sea near the Bab al Mandeb Strait after receiving a report from a tanker that witnessed a splash from an unknown projectile in close proximity to the vessel. The vessel and crew are safe and continuing on.
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"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
|
WSJ: Saudi Arabia’s Vast Oil Supplies Now Increasingly Depend on a Single Exit Since the conflict erupted, Saudi Arabia has used its East-West Pipeline to lift shipments from Red Sea terminals to around 4.9 million barrels of oil a day from roughly 700,000 to 1 million barrels a day..,equivalent of roughly 5% of global supply. Of that volume, roughly 3.5 million barrels a day have been sailing through the Bab al-Mandeb. If that southern passage becomes too dangerous, the remaining escape route runs north through Egypt. But Suez is an outlet, not a full substitute. It can keep Saudi oil moving only by routing ships through Egyptian terminals and a canal too shallow for some heavily laden vessels. Saudi Arabia’s vast oil exports increasingly depend on one last narrow exit. Since the Iran war began, the kingdom has ramped up exports across the country to its Red Sea coast, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, and shipped them through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait to Asian customers. Now, threats from Houthi militants—and several attacks against Saudi vessels in recent days—risk choking off that workaround, forcing more Saudi barrels onto a longer, costlier and technically challenging journey through Egypt’s Suez Canal and around Africa. This week, at least four tankers carrying Saudi crude abruptly reversed course before reaching Bab al-Mandeb at the southern end of the Red Sea to head north toward Suez, while Saudi Arabia has begun offering more crude cargoes for loading from Egypt’s Mediterranean ports, according to ship-tracking firm Vortexa. In the first three weeks of July, seaborne oil transit via the Suez Canal ran at its highest volume in 2½ years, while imports to the Sumed pipeline—which runs parallel to the canal—were up 50% from the previous month, Vortexa data showed. The diversions mark the latest redrawing of global oil flows after months of war have forced producers, traders and shipowners to abandon familiar routes for ever costlier detours. Gulf producers from the United Arab Emirates to Kuwait have been racing to build routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. On Saturday, Iraq said it would sign an agreement with Syria to build a pipeline project to carry Iraqi oil to the Mediterranean Sea. The stakes for the global economy are high: Persistent risks to regional shipping could push oil well above $100 a barrel, analysts say, stoking inflation and straining an already fragile global economy. Nor is the Suez route beyond the conflict’s reach. In recent days, senior officials from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have warned that if Washington intensifies its attacks or considers a ground invasion, Iran could seek to shut Bab al-Mandeb and the Red Sea, including targeting vessels, according to people familiar with the matter. Saudi and Egyptian efforts have so far failed to persuade the Houthis, an Iran-backed faction in Yemen, to step back. “The Saudis can get oil out of the Red Sea, but the issue is that this is a much longer and more expensive route to get to markets in Asia,” said Gregory Brew, senior analyst for Iran and energy at Eurasia Group. “For the oil market this means more pressure on prices.” Saudi media said Friday that a Saudi vessel was struck in the Red Sea. Saudi military officials said they carried out military strikes on Houthi targets in the area of the port city of Hodeidah in response. Earlier in the week, a tanker off southern Saudi Arabia caught fire after being struck by an unknown projectile, as the Houthis claimed attacks on two Saudi-flagged vessels using missiles and drones. On Thursday, President Trump warned that if the Houthis strike additional vessels, both their forces and Iran’s will face “major military punishment.” The U.S. military said late Thursday it had carried out its 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, hitting military command centers, drone-storage facilities and maritime capabilities. The new Red Sea threat compounds a double hit of disruption to global energy markets: Flows through Hormuz have slowed to a trickle, while Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. After months of war eroded the market’s inventory buffers, crude prices have risen sharply to reflect the risk of further losses. On Friday, Brent futures were trading around $97 a barrel, after jumping above $100 a barrel on Thursday. Brew said continued fighting could keep oil near $100. Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report this week that prices could climb to $120. Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said sustained Houthi attacks could materially reduce Red Sea oil flows and “shift the sentiment of ‘the market always finds a workaround’ camp.” The Houthi threat jeopardizes the relief valve that has kept one of the world’s biggest oil exporters connected to its customers and helped prevent global prices from surging even higher during the Iran war. Since the conflict erupted, Saudi Arabia has used its East-West Pipeline to lift shipments from Red Sea terminals to around 4.9 million barrels of oil a day from roughly 700,000 to 1 million barrels a day, according to Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at London-based consulting firm Energy Aspects. That is the equivalent of roughly 5% of global supply. Of that volume, roughly 3.5 million barrels a day have been sailing through the Bab al-Mandeb, mostly to buyers in Asia. If that southern passage becomes too dangerous, the remaining escape route runs north through Egypt. But Suez is an outlet, not a full substitute. It can keep Saudi oil moving only by routing ships through Egyptian terminals and a canal too shallow for some heavily laden vessels, before sending Asia-bound barrels westward across the Mediterranean, past Gibraltar and around the Cape of Good Hope. The extra distance raises freight and insurance costs, ties up ships and can delay deliveries by weeks. A so-called Suezmax tanker, designed around the canal’s restrictions, can carry roughly 1 million barrels through it. A very large crude carrier, or VLCC, can hold about 2 million barrels but sits too deep in the water when fully loaded to use the canal. To pass, a VLCC can discharge roughly half its cargo on the Gulf of Suez. That oil is then pumped about 200 miles across Egypt through the Sumed pipeline, which runs parallel to Suez, to the Mediterranean. The lightened tanker transits the canal and can collect the oil on the other side, or another ship can load it. Alternatively, shippers can split the cargo between two Suezmax tankers. For Asia-bound cargoes that do go north, the map then becomes more punishing. The detour to Asia can add a delay of some 20-30 days, Bronze said. With ships being tied up for weeks, longer voyages also push up freight and war-risk insurance rates. Product tankers carrying diesel and jet fuel depend more heavily on Suez than the VLCCs that dominate long-haul crude trades, according to Standard Chartered, making fuel markets particularly vulnerable. That risk comes as fuel prices are already elevated following Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. The northern outlet itself was born from an earlier crisis. The Suez Canal opened in 1869 but was closed from 1967 to 1975 following the Arab-Israeli war. The shutdown accelerated plans for the Sumed pipeline, which began operating in 1977 as an overland link carrying oil between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. The latest disruption exposes the limits of bypassing the Middle East’s chokepoints. Geography may offer an alternative route, but regional alliances can put that route at risk, too. “If Iran can coordinate with the Houthis and strategically close or open both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb to put pressure on the United States and the other Gulf states, it is a much more potent lever they have at their disposal,” said Edward Fishman, director of the Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Trump Holds Off on Major Escalation Against Iran as Advisers Raise Concerns But by late Friday, Mr. Trump appeared to temporarily put aside the bigger bombing plans, apparently persuaded, at least in part, by his military advisers’ assessment of dwindling supplies of munitions to defend American troops in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. A major attack would most likely have drawn a heavier Iranian retaliation, putting more pressure on U.S. air defenses. President Trump has set aside, at least for now, plans to sharply escalate the American military assault against Iran, with particular concern that intensifying the war could dangerously drain the Pentagon’s already diminished stockpile of Patriot antimissile interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East. The threat to interceptor stockpiles is one of many considerations that have made a return to major combat operations a hugely risky endeavor, administration officials say. Mr. Trump and his top aides are also uneasy about the prospect of a widening war in the Middle East, the alienation of key Gulf allies who are vulnerable to Iranian attack, a global economic crunch, and growing energy and refugee crises. The latest turn in Mr. Trump’s handling of the conflict with Iran came after a meeting on Friday with top advisers and senior members of his cabinet, according to two people briefed on the discussion. The private deliberations have focused on the Pentagon’s shrinking inventory of Patriot interceptors and other air defenses, the officials said, discussing operational matters on the condition of anonymity. Three U.S. soldiers in Jordan were killed last Friday when a ballistic missile slipped through American air defenses fending off a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones, a senior U.S. official said. Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has cautioned privately that resuming major combat operations against Iran was doable but that it would dangerously deplete interceptors available to the military’s Central Command, which is responsible for operations in the Middle East, the officials said. A spokesman for General Caine declined to comment on advice the general gives the president. Steven Cheung, the White House communications director, said that the president has “always been consistent in saying he prefers a diplomatic solution, but he continues to retain all options if Iran continues terrorist activities in the Strait of Hormuz or against allies.” He added that after enduring crippling sanctions and repeated strikes, “it would be wise for Iran to work towards a negotiated deal; otherwise, they know what will happen.” Mr. Trump has been wrestling with how to proceed in his nearly five-month war against Iran and specifically with how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as gas prices climb again amid the resumption of hostilities over the past two weeks. Diplomacy has broken down, and the latest round of extensive U.S. attacks do not seem to have deterred Iran militarily. Few if any in Mr. Trump’s inner circle believed the plan to escalate was wise, said the two people briefed. One senior U.S. official, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity, expressed doubts that resuming major combat operations would drive Iran back to the bargaining table. The official said the strikes have the opposite effect of what is intended, keeping Iran cohesive and allowing Iranian leaders to focus attention on an external threat. Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has cautioned privately that resuming major combat operations against Iran, would dangerously deplete interceptors available to the military’s Central Command.Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times Fighting between the United States and Iran appeared to abate for the first time in two weeks on Saturday, but tensions remained high as hostilities flared between Saudi-backed forces and Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen. After 13 straight nights of attacks on Iran, U.S. forces did not announce any overnight strikes on Saturday. Going into Friday’s meeting, Mr. Trump had indicated that the military was ready to carry out heavier assaults if ordered to do so even while leaving open the door to a diplomatic solution. “Look, we’re locked and loaded,” Mr. Trump told reporters on Friday afternoon. “We’re ready to go, but we’re talking to them, so maybe there will be, maybe there won’t be a tipping point.” The meeting on Friday took place as Mr. Trump faces a potential inflection point in his approach to Iran, after the collapse of a fragile cease-fire and a memorandum of understanding that was intended to bring the United States and Iran back to the negotiating table for a longer-term denuclearization. Several Pentagon officials and U.S. military commanders said earlier this week that Mr. Trump seemed to be leaning toward approving an initial phase of a multistage bombing campaign. The campaign would counter coastal radars, anti-ship missile launchers and a fleet of small Iranian attack boats and other sites that the Pentagon says have contributed to attacks on commercial ships transiting the strait. The Pentagon rushed more forces, weaponry and supplies to the Middle East in recent days to prepare for any escalation. The military has also damaged or destroyed an increasing number of railway bridges that civilians use but that also enable Iranian commanders to flow supplies to the southern coastal region near the strait. Increased attacks on those kinds of targets, as well as energy facilities and Iran’s nuclear sites, including Pickaxe Mountain, were also under consideration. Mr. Trump previewed some of his discussions in an interview with Axios on Thursday, saying: “I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it.” But by late Friday, Mr. Trump appeared to temporarily put aside the bigger bombing plans, apparently persuaded, at least in part, by his military advisers’ assessment of dwindling supplies of munitions to defend American troops in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, whose bases there have come under heavy Iranian fire in the past two weeks. A major attack would most likely have drawn a heavier Iranian retaliation, putting more pressure on U.S. air defenses. In late April, The New York Times reported that the Pentagon had used more than 1,200 Patriot interceptor missiles in the war, at more than $4 million apiece, leaving inventories worrisomely low, according to internal Defense Department estimates and congressional officials. The situation has worsened since then, military officials said this week. Instead, many of Mr. Trump’s advisers, including Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, say there is a plausible alternative pathway with less risk: continuing negotiations and economic pressure on Iran over a longer period of time. It is unclear what negotiations, if any, are underway and whether any talks could overcome the apparent internal rifts in Iran’s government over whether to pursue a deal. The recently reimposed U.S. naval blockade of ships trying to enter or leave Iranian ports has had mixed results, analysts say. The Iranians were able to resume some oil deliveries after the memorandum of understanding was signed in mid-June, mainly to China, U.S. officials said. Much of that oil is just now being delivered, so it will take time to restart the economic squeeze. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that China has reduced its crude oil purchases by approximately 40 percent in recent months, a decline he said was significantly reducing Iran’s oil revenues. On Friday, the Treasury Department imposed sanctions against nine firms and four people in the business network of the Iranian financier Babak Zanjani, who is under sanctions |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
BREAKING: Iran has directly rejected any new passage or route through the Strait of Hormuz, demanding potential talks to only proceed if the Strait is addressed first to affirm it remains under Iran's full control, frozen funds release second, and the nuclear issue last, per Al Arabiya. |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
WSJ referenced in Brodsky's post President Trump has put off a major escalation of his military campaign against Iran amid efforts to revive diplomacy to open the Strait of Hormuz and a debate over the impact of declining munitions stocks, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter. The U.S. military had been poised Friday to launch an intensive series of strikes against Iran, which could have lasted up to two weeks, the officials said. But the operation was delayed so diplomacy could proceed and as officials discussed the effect a major attack could have on the U.S. shrinking stocks of Patriot and other air defense interceptors. The president could still order an attack, officials said, noting that the situation remains fluid. The White House has been informed of the declining inventories of air defense interceptors by Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, officials added. The issue is a concern for Caine, who believes that the low inventories wouldn’t preclude a resumption of major combat operations against Iran, but would add to the risk, the officials added. A spokesman for Caine said he wouldn’t discuss the chairman’s confidential advice to the president. Several officials said Adm. Brad Cooper, who leads Central Command, believes the U.S. can cope with the limited stocks of Patriot and other air defense interceptors because stepped-up U.S. strikes, if they are approved by Trump, would blunt Iran’s ability to launch large numbers of missiles. A spokesman for Central Command declined to comment on Cooper’s planning. Trump denied that dwindling munitions are a problem, insisting in a statement to The Wall Street Journal that “we have far more munitions than anyone in the world, and far more than we need.” At the same time, the White House said national security would be at risk if news organizations reported updated U.S. government figures on Patriot and Thaad missile expenditures showing the high number of interceptors that have been used since the war began. Analysts outside the government have repeatedly cautioned that the large number of antimissile interceptors that have been used to intercept Iranian missile attacks could hamper the U.S. ability to deter adversaries around the globe, including China. “The diminished munitions stockpiles have created a near-term risk,” said an April report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies by Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel, and Chris Park, a research associate at the think tank. “A war against a capable peer competitor like China will consume munitions at greater rates than in this war.” That report covered the seven key munitions that had been used in the war with Iran. Cancian and Park, who have updated their April assessment, said in an interview Sunday that they now estimate that at least 1,500 Patriot interceptors have been expended since the war with Iran began. That would leave a U.S. inventory of less than 1,000 Patriot interceptors, they added. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt and Sean Parnell, the Pentagon’s chief spokesman, insisted the military has everything it needs for any mission Trump chooses. The continued threat posed by Iran’s missiles was underscored last week when three Iranian ballistic missiles struck a base in Jordan, including one that hit a housing area for American servicemembers at the base. Three U.S. soldiers were killed in the attack. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that most of the missiles that were directed at the base were shot down. Other U.S. officials have said that Iran’s missile force is using different flight paths, maneuvers and speeds, which is challenging U.S. defenses and increasing the use of antimissile interceptors. Gulf states have also drained many of their antimissile interceptors, which has become a concern for the Pentagon, according to U.S. officials. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said previously that Iran’s missile program is “functionally destroyed.” But U.S. and Israeli officials familiar with intelligence estimates said in April that Iran still has thousands of ballistic missiles in its arsenal that it could use by retrieving launchers from underground storage areas. The New York Times reported Saturday about Trump’s plans to hold off on a major military operation and Caine’s concerns over munitions stocks. Expectations that the U.S. was on the cusp of a major offensive were raised last week when Trump said he was considering a major attack. Cooper had prepared a number of options, including an intensive campaign that could last 10 to 14 days, officials said. The U.S. military began to move aircraft and weaponry to the region. But on Friday, Trump signaled that diplomacy had re-emerged as an option and that U.S. officials were communicating with Iran. “There’s a military exit where we just keep going just the way we are, and we can even make it a heavier dose, and it’s knocking out everything they have,” Trump told reporters Friday. “Or there’s a smarter strategy that you make a deal. And they want to make a deal.” Trump administration officials said that Gulf nations—including Oman, whose diplomats visited Tehran on Friday—are trying to revive diplomacy. Qatar is also involved, one of the officials said. Gulf states aren’t the only ones conferring with the White House. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet with Trump in Washington on Tuesday. The Israeli leader said in a statement Sunday that he plans to discuss “all pending issues,” which he said will include “the situation in Iran.” The Israeli and the U.S. militaries have both participated in the attacks on Iran, but Israel has refrained from striking the country since June at Trump’s request. The Trump administration hasn’t said if Israel would participate in fresh strikes if the U.S. renewed a major air campaign against Iran, but some U.S. officials said that might be an option. Another theory of why we stopped
On Truth Social Attached File Attached File |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Ship traffic through Bab el-Mandeb fell on Sunday after Yemeni Houthis attacked Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea coast, while transit through the Strait of Hormuz stayed low over the weekend, shipping data from Kpler showed on Monday. Eleven commodity vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb strait on Sunday, the lowest level in months, the data showed. Red Sea traffic has been disrupted off the coast of Yemen since last week by the Tehran-aligned Houthis, who want to blockade Saudi exports, expanding the U.S.-Iran conflict that has already choked oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Seven of the vessels that passed through Bab el-Mandeb were oil tankers with three of them entering the Red Sea. Two of them are very large crude carriers (VLCCs) heading to the port of Yanbu to load Saudi crude while the third is a Russian-linked ship, the data showed. The four vessels that exited the Red Sea on Sunday included the Hong Kong-flagged VLCC New Explorer carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi and Emirati crude for eastern China's Ningbo port, a tanker carrying 1 million barrels of Russian crude for China and a tanker with about 750,000 barrels of Saudi crude onboard for Pakistan, the data showed. This is the third Chinese VLCC to exit the Red Sea via the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Associated Maritime Hong Kong, the manager for the New Explorer, did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside office hours. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group struck sites belonging to Saudi state oil company Aramco in the cities of Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday. HORMUZ Fewer than 10 commodity vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily over the weekend even though the U.S. and Iran have paused strikes in the Middle East, shipping data from Kpler showed. Seven vessels transited on Sunday including three Iranian-linked oil products tankers that exited the Strait, the data showed. On Saturday, there were only three vessels that passed through with their transponders switched off. These include a VLCC heading to Qatar to load oil, a liquefied petroleum gas tanker going to the Ruwais port in the United Arab Emirates to load a cargo and a tanker carrying Qatari naphtha that was heading to Japan, the data showed. On Friday, seven vessels passed, mostly exiting the Gulf, including two VLCCs carrying crude from Iraq and the UAE and a tanker carrying fuel oil. Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Sonali Paul |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Ship traffic through Bab el-Mandeb fell on Sunday after Yemeni Houthis attacked Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea coast, while transit through the Strait of Hormuz stayed low over the weekend, shipping data from Kpler showed on Monday. Eleven commodity vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb strait on Sunday, the lowest level in months, the data showed. Red Sea traffic has been disrupted off the coast of Yemen since last week by the Tehran-aligned Houthis, who want to blockade Saudi exports, expanding the U.S.-Iran conflict that has already choked oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Seven of the vessels that passed through Bab el-Mandeb were oil tankers with three of them entering the Red Sea. Two of them are very large crude carriers (VLCCs) heading to the port of Yanbu to load Saudi crude while the third is a Russian-linked ship, the data showed. The four vessels that exited the Red Sea on Sunday included the Hong Kong-flagged VLCC New Explorer carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi and Emirati crude for eastern China's Ningbo port, a tanker carrying 1 million barrels of Russian crude for China and a tanker with about 750,000 barrels of Saudi crude onboard for Pakistan, the data showed. This is the third Chinese VLCC to exit the Red Sea via the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Associated Maritime Hong Kong, the manager for the New Explorer, did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside office hours. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group struck sites belonging to Saudi state oil company Aramco in the cities of Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday. HORMUZ Fewer than 10 commodity vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily over the weekend even though the U.S. and Iran have paused strikes in the Middle East, shipping data from Kpler showed. Seven vessels transited on Sunday including three Iranian-linked oil products tankers that exited the Strait, the data showed. On Saturday, there were only three vessels that passed through with their transponders switched off. These include a VLCC heading to Qatar to load oil, a liquefied petroleum gas tanker going to the Ruwais port in the United Arab Emirates to load a cargo and a tanker carrying Qatari naphtha that was heading to Japan, the data showed. On Friday, seven vessels passed, mostly exiting the Gulf, including two VLCCs carrying crude from Iraq and the UAE and a tanker carrying fuel oil. Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Sonali Paul |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
|
Originally Posted By michigan66:
Originally Posted By michigan66:
BREAKING: Iran has directly rejected any new passage or route through the Strait of Hormuz, demanding potential talks to only proceed if the Strait is addressed first to affirm it remains under Iran's full control, frozen funds release second, and the nuclear issue last, per Al Arabiya. Kind of a jam we're in. Them claiming "retaliatory strikes when it was their first strike that started this mess. So tiring. I think we should arm our interest in the area with military hardware capable of stopping all threats and walking away after de-mining the part of the strait that is outside the 12 mile Iran zone. move traffic through that zone and defend the ships that are depending on whoever is providing the security (Not the US) |
The person who complains most, and is the most critical of others has the most to hide.
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
ETA:
Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarie says their drones struck several sensitive oil supply and transport targets running from eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu in the west, calling it a response to Saudi drone activity over Yemen. The launch site was not disclosed. Saudi Arabia earlier blamed Iran-backed militias in Iraq for drone attacks on its energy facilities.
A Hamas unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) unit commander was killed in an Israeli strike in the central Gaza Strip yesterday, the military announces. The strike killed Hamam Eid, who headed a UAV cell in Hamas's military wing. The IDF says he was tasked with the production of UAVs intended to be used in attacks on troops and Israeli civilians. Previously, Eid headed a drone cell in central Gaza, and participated in attacks on Israeli forces, the military says. "Recently, Eid attempted to restore the aerial capabilities of the Hamas terror organization, in violation of the ceasefire agreement," the IDF adds. The IDF publishes a photo of Eid, which it says was found by troops during operations in the Strip. |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Interesting: in its latest attack against the Autonomous Region of Kurdistan, the IRGC - in this case the Iraqi factions (PMF) have used the Shaddid 110 drone. The Shaddid 110 drone is a jet propulsion drone built with an airframe design that is harder to detect for radar systems; the IRGC designates that airframe as stealthy. It’s interesting for 2 reasons: 1. The footage is from the attack against a camp of the PAK that was attacked a few hours ago - this drone was launched from Iraqi territory. This is therefore evidence that advanced drone systems were distributed to and cleared to be deployed by the IRGC aligned PMF forces which are since 2016 part of the Iraqi military. We have known about the distribution of these drones to the PMF but we have not yet seen evidence that the drones were approved to be used against targets; the prior assessment was that the advanced drones and ballistic missiles were solely intended to be used by the PMF when an imminent threat arises. 2. These drones seem to have made a major improvement in their capabilities to hit targets precisely; other attacks which were reported to have been carried out with missiles were very likely carried out using this drone as well. Some of these targets were deeply entrenched along mountain terrain and small valleys. The GNSS navigation does face challenges when navigating around the mountains of Kurdistan hence why the drone will rely on its offline INS navigation system which does get more inaccurate during the flight when relying on itself. |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
|
Originally Posted By brass: Kind of a jam we're in. Them claiming "retaliatory strikes when it was their first strike that started this mess. So tiring. I think we should arm our interest in the area with military hardware capable of stopping all threats and walking away after de-mining the part of the strait that is outside the 12 mile Iran zone. move traffic through that zone and defend the ships that are depending on whoever is providing the security (Not the US). Long term, I think the plan to back away and let the locals handle it is a good idea. Short term it will not happen, for too many reasons to lay out here. |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Turns out the Saudis were attacked by the Houthis and Iraqi PMF Iranian proxies
BREAKING: Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq refinery has been struck by drones, causing a massive fire at the facility and the East-West Pumping Station. NASA FIRMS satellite imagery confirms extensive fire activity at the site. Abqaiq is the world’s largest crude oil stabilization plant, processing 5-7% of global oil supply. Saudi Arabia has blamed Iran-backed resistance groups in Iraq for the attack, begun emergency flaring at multiple production sites, and says it reserves the right to respond. |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Iraq's Iran-backed "Islamic Resistance" has rejected Saudi accusations that it launched drones at the kingdom, calling them proof that "hostility toward Iraq and its people is inherent to this regime." The group says the charges are cover for Riyadh's fear of Yemeni retaliation, and warns that "every foolish Saudi act will be met with a harsh response."-Kan
Yemen's FM Afrah Al-Zouba: The Houthis are seeking direct flights from Iran to fill a gap in military support, personnel, money, and weapons. Al-Zouba added that Houthi and government forces are currently exchanging fire along the front line, but so far no offensive is taking place. |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
At 5:45 p.m. ET today, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran in an attempted surprise attack on U.S. forces based in the Middle East. All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted. U.S. forces remain vigilant and at a high state of readiness.
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"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
3:30 PM Eastern
The official spokesperson for the Ministry of Defense, Major General Turki Al-Maliki, stated that air defenses intercepted and destroyed several drones during the past hours, which had attempted to target petroleum facilities in the Eastern Region. Major General Al-Maliki clarified that these terrorist attempts were once again launched from Iraqi territory and carried out by Iran-affiliated terrorist militias, affirming the Kingdom's legitimate right to defend itself and its capabilities, while reserving the right to respond at the appropriate time and place. 7:47 PM Eastern
Interesting opinion on why Iran attacked US forces in Jordan.
Why Did Iran Strike Jordan? A. Iran's current leadership is determined to set the pace of the confrontation rather than simply react to decisions made in Washington. Tehran wants to demonstrate that it retains the initiative and can shape the escalation on its own terms. B. Iranian leaders increasingly interpret Washington's caution as a sign of hesitation and a lack of political will to sustain a prolonged confrontation. In Tehran's assessment, that creates an opportunity to test American resolve. C. From Iran's perspective, the maritime blockade itself constitutes an act of war. Unlike previous crises, the current leadership appears unwilling to accept restrictions on its maritime access without responding militarily. D. Today's strikes should also be viewed in the broader regional context. They are closely linked to the activities of Iran-backed militias in Iraq against Israel, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Tehran sees these fronts as part of a single campaign aimed at reshaping the regional balance of power while exploiting what it views as the strategic vulnerabilities of the Gulf states and the United States. E. The attack also reflects the doctrinal shift that has taken place in Iran since the death of Ali Khamenei. The new leadership is not content with deterrence through retaliation alone; it increasingly favors proactive military initiatives while relying heavily on its missile, drone, and proxy capabilities. Tehran believes the current crisis presents an opportunity to redefine the security order in the Persian Gulf in its favor. F. The pressure now shifts back to Washington. Iranian decision-makers appear to believe that a limited U.S. response will not alter the strategic equation. Their expectation is that the United States will eventually face a choice between accepting a broader escalation or making significant strategic adjustments. The broader message from Tehran is clear: Iran is not signaling surrender, nor is it seeking negotiations from a position of weakness. On the contrary, the leadership appears prepared to accept considerable risks because it views this as a defining strategic confrontation over Iran's regional role and long-term security. Attached File |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 29, 2026 U.S. Central Command and the Saudi Arabian Armed Forces conducted precision strikes in Iraq, July 28, against Iran-aligned terrorists that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) directed to attack U.S. forces and Saudi energy infrastructure. U.S. and Saudi fighter aircraft struck multiple terrorist logistics and weapons sites across eastern Iraq in a strong response to over 30 IRGC-directed aerial drone attacks in the last 72 hours. The unwarranted attacks against U.S. forces were not successful. From February through April 2026, there were more than 600 attempted attacks on U.S. citizens and facilities by Iran-aligned terrorist militias in Iraq. The IRGC and its terrorist proxies must cease these attacks to avoid further U.S. military response. |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
| https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/defense/artc-israeli-citizen-who-served-in-the-reserves-in-a-classified-unit-is-accused-of-contact-with-iranian-foreign-agent |
Deckard “nobody wants to know the truth, nobody” Cobra Kai Johnny Lawrence “she’s hot and all those other things” Tucker Carlson 1/10/2018 “I used to be a liberatarian until Google”https://mobile.twitter.com/Henry_Gunn
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Complete Reuters article: Iran to get Chinese shoulder-launched missile systems in weeks, sources say Iran is expected to receive within weeks a first shipment out of up to 400 Chinese-made shoulder-fired air-defence missile launchers, three sources familiar with the deal told Reuters, as it rebuilds its defences amid war with the United States. The purchase, valued at $60-70 million, is one of Tehran's largest-known efforts to strengthen its short-range air defences since the outbreak of its war with the U.S. and Israel, which exposed gaps in Iran's ability to protect military sites and strategic infrastructure. The contract covers the purchase of between 300 and 400 man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS), including Chinese-made QW-12 and FN-16 missiles, the sources said. The deal was signed with Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, a Hong Kong-based company that the sources said was acting as an intermediary between the Iranian side and the Chinese supplier. IRAN NEEDS TO REARM AFTER MONTHS OF WAR The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. Iran's foreign ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment. China's Foreign Ministry said: "The relevant reports are completely groundless. China has consistently played a role in promoting peace and ending the conflict." Beijing-based Zhong Qing Bao Shang Group, the parent company of Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, did not immediately respond to an email request for comment on Tuesday. Iran needs to rearm after months of fighting in which the U.S. and Israel have struck facilities linked to its missile, drone and air-defence programmes, and Tehran responded with barrages of ballistic missiles and drones. The conflict has highlighted the challenge of defending fixed military and strategic sites against advanced aircraft and precision-guided weapons. Washington abruptly suspended two weeks of bombardment on Saturday, but President Donald Trump said strikes would resume if negotiations failed to end the five-month-old conflict, which has in theory been in a state of ceasefire since April. The delivery of hundreds of MANPADS would significantly expand Iran's inventory of short-range air-defence weapons and underscore how military ties with China are deepening. The sources cautioned that, although the agreement had been signed, delivery schedules, quantities and other implementation details could still change. Under a plan agreed by the parties, deliveries will initially be by air from Urumqi in western China, then transiting through Pakistan to Iran, according to the sources, who did not clarify whether the transfers would take place by air or by road. Pakistan’s military public relations wing ISPR said: “Speculations of Pakistan being involved in supply of Air Defence weapons to Iran from China are absolutely concocted and false." A spokesperson for the Pakistani Foreign Ministry did not respond to requests for comment. CHINA AND IRAN EXPLORE LAND ROUTES FOR DELIVERY, SOURCES SAY While Iran has invested heavily in the past two decades in missiles, drones and radar, military experts say portable air-defence systems are important because they can be dispersed quickly, operated by small teams and relocated frequently, making them less vulnerable than fixed air-defence batteries. A European security source said authorities in his country were aware of several contracts under discussion involving the possible sale of QW-series MANPADS to Iran, including QW-12, QW-18 and QW-19 systems. A second security source, in the Middle East, said Iran had been seeking to purchase QW-12 and QW-18 missiles, but they were unaware that a deal had already been concluded. The QW-12 and FN-16 are shoulder-fired, infrared-guided surface-to-air missile systems designed to engage low-flying aircraft, helicopters and drones. Their mobility allows them to be deployed rapidly around military installations, energy infrastructure and other sensitive sites. Defence analysts regard the QW-12 as less capable than newer QW variants, including the QW-18 and QW-19, but say the systems can still provide an effective layer of short-range protection against drones and low-flying targets. Two Western intelligence sources and an Iranian official said Tehran had also explored the use of overland routes to move Chinese military supplies and dual-use components more discreetly and reduce the risk of disruption. The procurement highlights the Islamic Republic's continuing reliance on a combination of domestic weapons production and foreign suppliers despite years of sanctions and restrictions on defence-related imports. Reuters previously reported that Iran was close to securing a separate agreement with China to acquire anti-ship cruise missiles, according to people familiar with those negotiations. Reuters could not determine whether the agreement went through. |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
7:00 PM Eastern
WSJ: The U.S. Commander With a Two-Week Plan to Escalate Strikes in Iran ...it is Cooper who has prepared an option for a punishing air campaign against Iran that could take up to two weeks, people familiar with the matter said. On March 31, Cooper calculated that he still needed about 20 more days to finish the job, according to a person familiar with his thinking. But on April 3, a U.S. F-15E jet fighter was shot down over southwestern Iran, kicking off a high-risk rescue mission. While both airmen were retrieved, the incident contributed to Trump’s decision to clinch a ceasefire agreement just a few days later. President Trump was sitting aboard Air Force One on the tarmac in Delaware last week having just watched the caskets of four U.S. soldiers killed in the Iran war arrive from overseas. He was huddling with his top war advisers—Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Also aboard the plane in the impromptu meeting: Adm. Brad Cooper, head of the U.S. Central Command, who has been quietly directing the war from his Tampa, Fla., headquarters and who had arrived separately for the solemn ceremony. The naval officer has often been eclipsed by Caine and Hegseth, who regularly brief Trump in the Oval Office and have been far more involved in the White House discussions on the war. But it is Cooper who has prepared an option for a punishing air campaign against Iran that could take up to two weeks, people familiar with the matter said. Now, as Trump vows to strike back after Iran’s surprise missile attack Tuesday, the president will decide how far to go. He could greenlight Cooper’s option of 10 to 14 days of intensive airstrikes intended to cripple Iran’s missile capability despite warnings that the U.S. is running low on air-defensive munitions. Or, he could opt for a more limited military strike in the hopes diplomacy could be pursued. Critics on Capitol Hill say that any new air campaign risks dragging the administration deeper into war. For weeks, Trump has oscillated between stop-and-start diplomacy and expletive-laden threats to return to the sort of major combat operations that were featured at the beginning of the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran. On Wednesday, a senior administration official said that Trump “is in an escalatory mood” but is still contemplating “the depth of that response.” The idea behind Cooper’s high-end option is to go beyond the tit-for-tat airstrikes that have done little to deter Tehran from threatening ships in the Strait of Hormuz and lobbing missiles at American forces in the region by sharply escalating the war, according to people familiar with his thinking. If the U.S. wants military action to be effective, Cooper has said, the U.S. must step up its air attacks, significantly blunting Iran’s missile threat, to try to break the stalemate. This “go big” approach, which is among a series of options he has developed, would reduce the need for the U.S. to use defensive munitions because Iran would have less capability to attack. Caine, who is described as more cautious, often alerts the White House to the “second and third order consequences” of military options, the people said. He has raised concerns about the U.S.’s dwindling supply of air defense interceptors, which are needed elsewhere around the world to defend U.S. bases and allies, as well as fend off Iran’s missile attacks. Caine believes that the low inventories wouldn’t preclude a resumption of major combat operations against Iran but would add to the risk, the people said. Spokesmen for Caine and Cooper declined to comment on internal deliberations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met Wednesday with Hegseth following his meeting a day earlier with Trump. Israeli forces could be included in a possible major U.S. attack if the Trump administration decided to return to major combat operations, officials have said. Trump signaled Wednesday morning that he is already determined to resume strikes, though he didn’t spell out the details and left the door open for negotiations. “We’re going to beat the f—ing sh—out of them,” Trump told Fox News. “We’ll be hitting them hard.” “We’re going to let them keep talking,” he continued. As the top commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East, Cooper’s mission has been to prosecute the war with Iran and safeguard American security interests in the region. Caine’s job is to look at the worldwide picture, including threats from China, North Korea and Russia, which also made a claim on U.S. military resources. Cooper has long labored with a bureaucratic disadvantage: he lacks the easy access that Caine has to the Oval Office. The vast majority of Trump’s updates on the war have been delivered by Caine and Hegseth. Cooper has briefed the president in person only a handful of times since the war began, and Trump and the commander have only occasionally talked by phone. Cooper’s last in-person meeting with Trump was last week’s session on Air Force One. As the military leaders met in one part of the plane with the commander in chief who had mused publicly about ramping up the war, family members who had just attended the dignified transfer for their loved ones who had been killed in the Middle East sat nearby. Trump offered a Georgia-based family a ride home on the plane, the senior administration official said. “Secretary Hegseth, CENTCOM Commander Admiral Cooper, and Chairman Caine stand completely aligned and are united in mission, strategy, and resolve regarding overseas operations involving Iran,” Chief Pentagon Spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement. “The Department of War is locked and loaded, ready to execute the President’s directives at a moment’s notice.” Cooper has long believed that military force could deliver a body blow to Iran if given enough time, even as some military experts contend that air power alone has never won a war. As Trump was considering launching the war in February, Cooper figured that he could need six weeks or more to complete the operation. He was given less than that. The joint U.S. and Israeli air campaign began on Feb. 28. By the end of March, however, the president was growing impatient. Iran had declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and begun laying sea mines in the strategic waterway. Surging oil prices roiled the global economy and prompted the U.S. to eat into oil reserves to bring prices down. On March 31, Cooper calculated that he still needed about 20 more days to finish the job, according to a person familiar with his thinking. But on April 3, a U.S. F-15E jet fighter was shot down over southwestern Iran, kicking off a high-risk rescue mission. While both airmen were retrieved, the incident contributed to Trump’s decision to clinch a ceasefire agreement just a few days later. In a press conference soon after the ceasefire was declared, Hegseth, who also attended last week’s Air Force One meeting, boasted that Iran’s missile program had been “functionally destroyed” with its launchers and missiles “depleted and decimated.” But Iran’s missile force, U.S. intelligence assessed, wasn’t completely destroyed. In an early June interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Trump said that Iran might have about 21% to 22% of their missiles left. Some analysts estimated they had more. While Caine had informed the White House of the limited number of air defense interceptors in the U.S. inventory, Cooper’s reasoning was that powerful airstrikes would greatly diminish Iran’s missile capabilities and its ability to retaliate. Under Caine’s approach, U.S. air defenses could be realigned in the region to buttress the defense of key sites. In outlining the options for an intensive air campaign, Cooper has drawn support from Hegseth, the people said. But skeptics inside and outside government have said that the U.S. has pummeled Iran’s underground missile force and factories during the opening month of the war only to see the Iranians dig out launchers from underground complexes and resume their attacks, using different missile flight paths and maneuvers to try to elude U.S. defenses and augmenting their strikes with drones. Iran’s missile capabilities were on display in mid-July, when an Iranian missile attack killed three U.S. soldiers at a Jordanian air base, and again on Tuesday, when Iran launched missiles in its surprise attack against American forces. “All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted. U.S. forces remain vigilant and at a high state of readiness,” according to Centcom. 12:00 PM Eastern
Reuters reports U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Adm. Brad Cooper has warned U.S. troops that cellphone videos and social media posts are giving Iran real-time battle damage assessments, potentially helping it plan follow on strikes against American forces. According to Reuters, some troops in Jordan have been told their phones could soon be confiscated as the military considers tighter operational security measures following recent attacks. Cooper wrote that footage posted by service members can reveal whether Iranian missiles hit their targets, warning that publicly shared images and reporting can provide Tehran with intelligence "free of charge."
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"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
BREAKING: In response to U.S. military airstrikes against civilian and military targets in Iran, particularly the ballistic missile bases in Tabriz and Yazd, the IRGC Aerospace Force launched multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. military bases in several Persian Gulf countries, including Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. These images and videos show ballistic missile launches from Tabriz, Yazd, and Khomein—from the same bases bombed by the United States Air Force last night. It appears that it took the IRGC less than a couple of hours to restore the bases to operational status.
Link to Reuters article Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia this week from Iraqi territory in coordination with Iraqi armed groups, according to assessments by Saudi Arabia and regional partners, reflecting growing coordination among Iran-aligned militias, two officials in the region said. The assessments, which differ from official accounts, indicate that members of Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance have deepened their ties and ability to inflict damage to U.S. allies in the region despite years of U.S and Israeli strikes on them from Lebanon to Iran after Hamas' 2023 attack on Israel. The attacks included strikes on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia's eastern province, the kingdom's main crude hub. Saudi Arabia carried out joint airstrikes with the United States on Iraqi sites on Wednesday that it said were linked to the attacks, officially blaming Iraqi armed groups aligned with Iran. Yemen's Houthis have said they carried out the attacks. Iraq has said it is investigating. The officials in the region who said some of the attacks were carried out from Iraqi territory jointly by the Iraqi groups and the Houthis, added that it was under the supervision of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. After the Saudi-U.S. strikes on Wednesday, Iran-aligned media mourned members of the IRGC, Iraqi fighters and at least one Houthi. "There is now direct training and coordination between members of the Axis of Resistance themselves, not just between them and Iran," said Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at the Chatham House think tank's Middle East and North Africa program. The attacks also show the increasingly important role Iraq is playing as a node in that axis after the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the severe weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon, analysts said. The Saudi, Iranian and Iraqi governments did not respond to requests for comment, nor did the Houthis, who have said their attacks on Saudi Arabia are in response to Saudi attacks in Yemen and aim to break a "siege" imposed by the kingdom. Saudi Arabia has denied imposing a siege, noting the arrival of dozens of ships to Houthi-controlled ports this year. HOUTHIS AND IRAQI GROUPS HAVE A HISTORY OF TIES Cooperation between the Houthis and Iraqi armed groups loyal to Iran has been longstanding, particularly with Kataib Hezbollah, the most heavily-armed and well-organized of the Iraqi factions. In 2024, Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi announced the existence of a joint operations room between the Houthis and Iraqi factions, and later that year the two groups announced their first joint operation targeting Israel. The Houthis also have had a fixed presence in Iraq, including offices and a formal representative, Ahmed al-Sharafi, who has held publicized meetings with Iran-aligned Iraqi Shi'ite parties and armed factions in the country. Red and green posters bearing the Houthi "Sarkha" - its slogan "God is greatest, death to America, death to Israel, curse the Jews, victory to Islam," have hung in parts of Baghdad for years. Analysts say Iraq is useful for the Houthis and other Iran-aligned groups in the region due to its large geography and vast open spaces that make it easy to hide in and to launch covert attacks from. Iraq's more than 800-km (500-mile) border with Saudi Arabia is difficult to police, making it an ideal launch pad for attacks across Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. Hundreds of attacks on Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been blamed by officials from those states on groups operating in Iraq. They include an attack by two drones in March on the U.S. embassy in Riyadh and a strike in May at the UAE's Barakah nuclear power plant. Iraq has repeatedly said it would investigate claims of attacks from its territory on Arab neighbours but critics say it has shown little ability to address them, harming its relations and credibility with Gulf neighbours. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi cancelled a visit planned for Thursday to Saudi Arabia to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman after Saudi strikes on Iraq following the attacks on the kingdom. Zaidi has set out an ambitious plan to bring all arms under state control by the end of September despite opposition from some armed factions. Reporting by Timour Azhari in Riyadh; Editing by Philippa Fletcher
The IDF said it killed Ahmad Hisham Mahmoud Louh, Hamas’ last sniper cell commander in the Nuseirat Battalion. Separately, the IDF also killed Mahmoud Ali Mahmoud Taroush, a Hamas platoon commander who infiltrated Israel during the October 7 attack. According to the IDF, both continued planning attacks against Israeli civilians and troops and were killed in separate airstrikes in Gaza on Monday.
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"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Over the past few hours, Iranian state media have continued to report false claims by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – three in particular. FIRST CLAIM: The IRGC (again) claims free and open routes through the Strait of Hormuz are dangerous for commercial vessels. FACT: The immediate dangers posed to commercial vessels and their civilian crews are the IRGC’s verbal threats and attempted attacks. SECOND CLAIM: The IRGC claims Three U.S. F-35 stealth fighters and three other aircraft were destroyed during a recent Iranian attack on an American air base. FACT: No U.S. aircraft were destroyed or damaged in recent attempted Iranian attacks. All missiles and drones were intercepted or failed to reach targeted areas. THIRD CLAIM: Iranian state media is reporting that a commercial oil tanker, M/T Nora, has broken through the U.S. blockade. FACT: The commercial vessel has not broken through America’s steel wall blockade. More than 20 U.S. warships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of service members remain vigilant and continue to fully enforce the blockade.
The Israeli military has blown up Hezbollah's tunnel system beneath the Beaufort Ridge in southern Lebanon, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz announce in a joint statement. They say that the IDF used 700 tons of explosives to demolish the subterranean facility. The demolition was planned for an earlier date but postponed because of the ceasefire. Netanyahu and Katz say the destruction of the tunnel system at this time comes in response to Hezbollah's violation of the ceasefire agreement yesterday, by targeting an unmanned bulldozer with an explosive drone.
BREAKING U.S. President Donald Trump: "Today, the Board of Peace reached a HISTORIC agreement for the COMPLETE DISARMAMENT of Hamas and all other armed groups in Gaza. This is a monumental step toward lasting PEACE and SECURITY. This agreement is a critical step towards Gaza finally being governed by a new Palestinian government that will work closely with the Board of Peace to help the Palestinian people. At the same time, Israel will have the security it deserves, with Gaza no longer used as a base for terror attacks. This is a major milestone in the implementation of the Trump 20-Point Plan. The agreement will be carried out in carefully structured phases. As disarmament is completed, Israeli forces will withdraw, and the International Stabilization Force will work with a new Palestinian police force to take responsibility for Gaza being safe for its residents and its neighbors. One year ago there was a violent raging war, humanitarian crisis and hostages kept in brutal captivity. We have made historic progress and there is still much work to do. I want to thank the mediators—Egypt, Qatar, and Türkiye—for their important efforts, and especially my outstanding team, whose tireless work made this historic breakthrough possible. The threat that emerged from Gaza on October 7 will NOT be allowed to rebuild! Under this agreement, Gaza will finally be in the hands of a new Palestinian government that serves its PEOPLE. CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL ON THIS AMAZING DEVELOPMENT, THAT EVERYBODY SAID COULD NEVER BE ACHIEVED!" Attached File |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
US President Donald Trump has ordered fresh strikes on Iran that could begin as soon as this weekend, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing US officials, as he warned Tehran would face heavy military action unless it returned to negotiations. Trump said during a cabinet meeting at Camp David on Friday that the United States would be "hitting them very hard," adding that Iran would eventually reach a point where it could no longer withstand the pressure. Full WSJ article President Trump has ordered a fresh attack on Iran aimed at getting Tehran to surrender that could begin as soon as this weekend and would last a few days, U.S. officials said. Earlier on Friday, he told reporters that he planned to resume heavy military strikes to force the regime to come to the negotiating table. He predicted that if the U.S. hit Iran hard enough, the hard-line regime would eventually “peter out.” “We will be hitting them very hard,” Trump said Friday at the televised cabinet meeting. “And you know at some point, they’re going to say, ‘We just can’t take it anymore.’” His comments, made during a cabinet meeting at the Camp David presidential retreat, were in contrast to his insistence earlier this week that “very friendly negotiations” were under way, enabling a pause on military operations. Since then, Iran launched a surprise attack on troops in Jordan, triggering a U.S. retaliatory attack on Wednesday. For weeks behind closed doors, Trump has been telling aides that the Iranians are “crazy,” according to U.S. officials. He also has complained to confidants that the interim peace deal was ultimately meaningless, officials said, and that he always knew it wasn’t going to work. His frustration was on full display during the meeting at Camp David when the president accused Iranian diplomats of being “very dishonorable” to deal with and suggested more violent military strikes were needed to break Tehran’s will. “Well, they always want to talk, but they break their words so often,” Trump said, later adding, “All they do is make me angry.” The frustration is mutual. Iranian diplomats have expressed exhaustion at the multiple times negotiations broke down with the U.S. From their perspective, officials say, there is a lack of trust between the two countries and that the relations and prospect of diplomacy worsen every time Trump threatens military force. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard on Thursday vowed to renew its attacks following the U.S. retaliatory strikes. As the Iran war enters its sixth month, neither side appears any closer to softening its positions. Trump continues to insist that Iran must relinquish its nuclear program and abandon its control of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has dug in on both counts. Among Trump’s options is a proposed two-week campaign of intensive airstrikes intended to blunt Iran’s missile capabilities. Dwindling munitions, however, have been cited by Trump’s military advisers as a potential risk, The Wall Street Journal reported. Some U.S. officials believe Iran will continue to drag out negotiations, banking that Trump will abandon his war efforts in the long term in the face of mounting domestic political opposition.
A Hamas commander who invaded Israel on October 7, 2023, and held Israeli hostages Romi Gonen and Cpl. Noa Marciano in captivity in the Gaza Strip was killed in an airstrike yesterday, the military and Shin Bet announce. The Thursday strike in Gaza City killed Abd al-Rahim Abd al-Hay Youssef Kardi, a deputy commander of a Hamas cell, who also served as a doctor at Shifa Hospital, according to the military. "Kardi infiltrated Israeli territory during the October 7 massacre," the military says. The IDF says that at the start of the war, Kardi was involved in holding Gonen hostage in Gaza City, including at Shifa Hospital, and he was also involved in holding the body of Marciano, a surveillance soldier, after she had been murdered in captivity until her remains were recovered by the army. The military justifies the strike amid the ceasefire by saying that Kardi had been recently planning attacks on troops and Israeli civilians. "The terrorist posed a threat to the troops and was eliminated in an aerial strike," the army says. |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Originally Posted By michigan66:
Full WSJ article
Also Trump: "We're going to bomb you until you negotiate!" |
Coyote with 40 people crammed into a minivan gets into a chase with DPS, Paco over estimates his driving abilities and *whmmo!* the Astrovan of Immigration becomes a Pinata of Pain, hurling broken bodies like so many tasty pieces of cheap candy...
Hamas to Al Arabiya: What we agreed upon with the mediators is storing the weapons, not handing them over |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
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Originally Posted By michigan66:
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Coyote with 40 people crammed into a minivan gets into a chase with DPS, Paco over estimates his driving abilities and *whmmo!* the Astrovan of Immigration becomes a Pinata of Pain, hurling broken bodies like so many tasty pieces of cheap candy...
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Attached File Attached File
Kuwait's army said on Saturday it had detected and destroyed hostile drones in its airspace since dawn, while an Iranian attack struck several vital facilities. A government facility in northern Kuwait and civilian property belonging to a company on Bubiyan Island were hit, while falling debris caused material damage but no casualties, the army said.
Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Rezaei warned on Saturday of sweeping retaliation across the region if the United States attacks Iran’s energy infrastructure. “If Iran is struck, we will send the entire region and its facilities back to the Stone Age,” Rezaei, a member of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, wrote on X. “It is in your interest not to do anything foolish.” Rezaei said Washington believed it could deliver a swift blow over the weekend and force Iran to surrender, calling that an “illusion” he said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had planted in US President Donald Trump’s mind.
Sounds like perfect targets for Operation Economic Fury: One of the world’s largest illegal gambling networks sends millions of dollars worth of crypto through an office in Dubai, part of a $4 billion #Iran sanctions evasion operation. With a cameo appearance by Sasha Sobhani. Long Reuters article detailing how the IRGC laundered the gambling money inside spoiler link to Reuters site Click To View Spoiler
BREAKING: Iran announces it will strike the world's most important energy facilities, located in Arab countries and Israel, all within range of Iran's precision missiles, in response to any new US and Israeli strikes, per Fars: 1. Ghawar Oil Field, Saudi Arabia, backbone of Saudi production, disruption puts 5%+ of world oil supply at risk 2. Abqaiq + Khurais, Saudi Arabia, 7M+ bpd throughput, world's largest oil stabilization plant 3. Ruways Refinery + Zakum Oil Field, UAE, 2nd largest offshore oil field, 1M+ bpd 4. North Ghadir Gas Field + Ras Laffan LNG, Qatar, world's largest gas field with 25% of proven reserves, 20% of global LNG trade 5. Burgan Oil Field, Kuwait, 67B barrel reserves, 2M bpd 6. Sitrah Refinery + Al-Mihaj, Bahrain 7. Leviathan + Tamar Gas Fields, Israel, Israel's largest + 2nd largest gas fields Iran adds that during the 40-day war Iran bombed Qatar's most important gas refinery in response to a strike on South Pars facilities, with Trump apologizing on Truth social promising "it will not happen again." |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
U.S. EMBASSIES URGE AMERICANS TO BE READY TO LEAVE MIDDLE EAST AMID IRAN TENSIONS U.S. embassies across Israel and the Middle East are warning Americans to “consider departing, or be prepared to depart should there be escalation” as tensions with Iran rise. Officials say “the security environment remains complex with the potential for unforeseen escalation” and caution that “Americans outside the Middle East should seriously reconsider travel to and through the region.” Embassies remain open for routine services.
Link to article Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the head of U.S. European Command, sent written notification to senior Pentagon officials saying that without another Navy destroyer he will be forced to choose defense of the United States “homeland” over that of Israel, said the officials, who like some others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the correspondence. A U.S. defense official said Grynkewich’s notification appears consistent with past outreach to the Pentagon from the military’s top generals when they see certain risks that require Washington’s consideration. This can occur, the official said, as commanders compete for finite resources and weapons. The Pentagon declined to comment. U.S. European Command did not respond to requests for comment. A spokesperson for the Israeli Embassy in Washington could not be reached for comment. The general’s warning comes at a tenuous moment in the five-month conflict, as near-daily attacks have resumed following the collapse of peace talks between Washington and Tehran and the operation’s intensity has drained U.S. supplies of key defensive weapons. The Navy has been particularly taxed, as the Trump administration has directed a blockade of Iranian ports in response to Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The standoff has stymied the movement of Middle Eastern oil and other commodities through the narrow waterway, upending the global economy. U.S. naval destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean Sea have been employed as a part of Israel’s defense for many years. The vessels, equipped with powerful radar and armed with an array of missiles, have downed missiles aimed at Israel not only by Iran, but by Houthi militants in Yemen that are equipped by Tehran. European Command is central to this mission, as it coordinates military operations in the Mediterranean. At the same time, its forces must remain ready for any Russian incursion into territory protected by the NATO military alliance. Russia also poses a ballistic missile threat to the United States, with missiles capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. The Navy has five destroyers that deploy from a U.S. port in Rota, Spain, with a sixth expected to arrive there later this year, Pentagon officials have said. But maintenance issues have piled up due to the Iran war’s tempo, complicating matters for Grynkewich, officials said. The Washington Post withheld specific details about the ships’ availability at the request of military officials, who cited security concerns. As The Post reported in May, Pentagon assessments conducted earlier in the war showed that U.S. forces have shouldered the brunt of defending Israel from Iranian ballistic missiles. The assessments found that American weapons, including the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense and naval interceptors launched from the eastern Mediterranean, were used far more frequently than Israeli air defense weapons. Two destroyers, the USS Paul Ignatius and the USS Roosevelt, were in the Mediterranean Sea on Friday, a U.S. official said. Three destroyers were in Rota: the USS Arleigh Burke, the USS Bulkeley and the USS Oscar Austin. Closer to Iran, an armada of additional vessels was in the Arabian Sea, including two aircraft carriers, the USS George H.W. Bush and USS Abraham Lincoln, and at least 15 other warships, this official said. Eleven are destroyers. The fleet has been central to the Trump administration’s blockade of Iranian ports. It also has been involved in an effort called “Project Freedom,” in which the U.S. military has helped protect vessels in the contested Strait of Hormuz. Another destroyer, the USS Gonzalez, is in the Red Sea, where Yemen’s Houthis have attempted to enforce their own blockade of commercial shipping in a bid to further the economic pressure facing the U.S. and its allies in the region. Saudi Arabia, a key U.S. partner, has sought to thwart the Houthis, a longtime adversary, by developing a military coalition to ensure freedom of navigation. The Iran war is increasingly unpopular among the U.S. public, and members of Congress — from both political parties — have grown frustrated with the administration as top officials struggle to articulate a plan for ending the conflict on terms deemed favorable to the United States. There is a deepening worry among many Republicans, particularly, that the war’s impact on the price of gas, food and other goods will cost the party in November’s midterm elections. Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank, said the warning issued by Grynkewich highlights the scope of the Pentagon’s challenges. “Being on a wartime footing is going to take a toll in terms of readiness and munitions inventory levels,” he said. “Now the question is: What’s the strategy here?” |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Tensions with Iran are at a “boiling point,” and US President Donald Trump is closer than ever to approving a significant strike, though no final decision has been made, N12 reported Saturday, citing an Israeli official. The official said Israel had raised its alert level and was unsure whether Trump wanted it involved from the outset. According to the report, intelligence presented to Trump included a limited, targeted strike on energy facilities that could significantly affect the Iranian public without triggering a broader rise in global energy prices.
Senior advisor to the Iranian government Marandi: “Based on statements from the Trump regime, it seems quite possible that after months of barbaric threats, tonight will be the last night of normality in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, and possibly Oman. If strikes are carried out against Iran's civilian infrastructure, the critical infrastructure of these complicit regimes - along with that of the Zionist regime and perhaps Jordan- will be demolished. People in these regimes should immediately prepare for evacuation.”
Syria informed Iraq that it had detected movements by Iran-backed militias near the border between the two countries, Al Arabiya reported Saturday, citing an unnamed Iraqi source. The source said Syrian officials contacted their Iraqi counterparts directly and warned that any attack launched from Iraqi territory “would not go unanswered.” The report came after Jordan warned Iraq that it would target Iran-backed militias if they carried out attacks against Jordanian territory.
Two senior IRGC officials to the New York Times: During the ceasefire, Quds Force commanders held online conference calls with the leaders of Hezbollah, the Houthis, and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, while commanders and advisers operated on the ground alongside the militias. To fill the void in Hezbollah's ranks, Iran placed IRGC commanders as direct members of the group's leadership council and now holds greater control over its operations. Complete article A drone attack sent smoke billowing from a giant Saudi oil facility, the largest such plant in the world. Two gas tankers burst into flames at an Egyptian port near the Suez Canal, a crucial choke point in global trade. Fireballs erupted over Jordan as missiles flew toward a base housing U.S. personnel. War has enveloped a widening circle of targets across the Middle East in recent days, as Iran and its phalanx of proxy militias have sought to strike at U.S. allies, roil global markets and push the United States to halt its campaign against the Islamic Republic. The attacks are part of what two senior Iranian officials depicted as a step-by-step plan, devised in secret during a fleeting cease-fire this spring, that would use Iran’s allies to escalate attacks if the United States intensified its assaults. The goal, the officials said, was to make the war as costly as possible for President Trump. Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Iran’s chief negotiator, even crowed on social media about the strategy with the proxy forces, which are known in the region as the “Axis of Resistance.” “The rules of the conflict are changing and being rewritten, we are creating new conditions and platforms in the war,” Mr. Mohammadi said. “The fronts are multiplying from different directions in the region; they are of course coordinated but act independently. A new axis of resistance is emerging with new players.” Iran and its allies have taken powerful blows since 2023, when the militant group Hamas attacked Israel. Recent events, however, have shown their capacity to regroup, stir chaos and gain Iran leverage. Still, analysts do not consider the proxy forces — each with its own agenda — mere puppets of Tehran, though Iran’s level of coordination and control varies among them. The Houthis in Yemen, for instance, are seen as the most autonomous of the groups that make up the alliance. Hezbollah coordinates the most closely with Iran, while Shiite militias in Iraq are somewhere in the middle in the degree of their willingness to act as a direct arm of Iran. But the groups still find common cause against the United States and Israel. During the short-lived cease-fire, Iranian generals covertly strategized with proxy militia commanders on how to expand the war and raise its cost for Washington, according to the two officials, both familiar with the planning as members of the Guards, and both speaking anonymously to discuss sensitive internal deliberations. Senior commanders from the Quds Force, the external arm of the Guards that fosters proxy militias, held virtual conference calls with commanders from Hezbollah, the Houthis and Shiite armed groups in Iraq, the officials said. Quds Force commanders and advisers have also been working closely with the militias on the ground, according to the two officials. The Guards have tried to fill the void in Hezbollah’s ranks, which have been decimated by war with Israel, while also serving in Iraq on bases operated by Shiite militias. A wave of U.S.-Saudi airstrikes targeted militias in Iraq early Wednesday, and Iranian media published photographs of four men killed in the attacks, all wearing the distinctive olive uniforms of the Quds Force, their coffins draped with Iran’s flag. “We are playing a grand game of chess; the militias are Iran’s chess pieces to be moved wisely at the right time and place, for maximum impact,” Mehdi Rahmati, an analyst in Iran and an expert on the regional militias, said in a phone interview. Aside from lobbing missiles and drones at military bases housing U.S. troops, the attacks have been calibrated to avoid direct confrontations with American or Israeli forces, which could lead to harsh retaliation against Iran, analysts said. Igniting a fire at the Saudi oil facility drew the kingdom into the war, but the Saudi response targeted Iraqi militias accused of the attack rather than Iran. Iran mobilized its proxy forces for a variety of reasons, analysts said. First and foremost, the strategy aims to limit oil exports from the region, driving up gas prices in the United States ahead of the U.S. midterm elections and reducing revenue for Washington’s Arab allies. Tehran senses that severe economic damage might make its neighbors more amenable to Iran’s ambition to control all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, analysts said. About 20 percent of the world’s oil supply transited the strait before the war. “Iran thinks that its neighbors are vulnerable,” said Afshon Ostovar, the author of a history of the Middle East in the 21st century. “They are basically just trying to twist the arm of the Saudis and gain some concessions.” With its oil exports largely blocked in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has been shipping much of its oil through a pipeline across the kingdom. It is then exported out of a Red Sea port and through the Bab al-Mandab, the narrow strait separating Yemen from Africa. The Houthis, who had largely sat on the sidelines after the United States and Israel attacked Iran, announced a naval blockade against Saudi shipping on July 20 and began missile and drone attacks to enforce it. Then another, far longer route to Asia, through the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean, came under threat on Wednesday as unidentified drones hit tankers in Egypt — opening a new front. Iran rejected accusations that it was responsible. The Houthis have their own reasons for putting pressure on their neighbor, Saudi Arabia, especially finding an end to Yemen’s long-running civil war, in which the kingdom had played a devastating role. “They are coordinating with Iran, but they are not necessarily acting on behalf of Iran,” said Firas Maksad, the managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group, a risk consultancy. “It’s a calibrated escalation and it’s part of this negotiation by fire that is ongoing between the Houthis and the Saudis.” Another reason that Iran’s allies are attacking is more ideological, analysts said. Iran developed its proxy network with two primary goals: to help drive the United States military out of the region and inflict harm on Israel, and to use the militias as a shield against attacks on Iran itself. Neither strategy fully worked, especially after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the linchpin of the axis. Hamas, too, is a mere shadow of its former self. “Iran’s proxies are participating in the war because they, alongside Iran, are desperately trying to hold onto their claimed status as revolutionary forces against the U.S. and Israel,” said Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at Chatham House, a London research group. Absent their original intent, the militias have instead become “a force for disruption,” she said. Hezbollah, once Iran’s powerful partner on Israel’s doorstep, feels newly threatened by an Israeli-Lebanese peace deal, brokered by Washington in June, that includes the unlikely goal of disarming the militia. The group has been attempting to rebuild after war with Israel, which assassinated the militia’s longtime leader and killed dozens of top commanders and thousands of foot soldiers. Iran has tried to buttress those efforts, deploying Revolutionary Guards commanders to serve directly on Hezbollah’s leadership council, according to both Lebanese government officials and analysts. Senior Lebanese officials have expressed surprise that Iranian commanders turned out to be longstanding residents of buildings that Israel attacked far from traditional Hezbollah strongholds. “One of the unintended consequences of destroying or degrading Hezbollah’s leadership is that the I.R.G.C. is now even more effectively in control of Hezbollah and its actions,” Mr. Maksad said. Similar conditions hold true for Iraq, where a dizzying patchwork of militias emerged after the American invasion in 2003. At the urging of Washington, Iraq has been incorporating militias into its armed forces, but some smaller groups are resisting. Unleashing Hezbollah and the Iraqi militias is an effort by Iran to thwart such American efforts. “They see that their footprint is diminishing, and they want to reaffirm their presence in the region and their regional role,” said Randa Slim, the head of the Middle East program for the Stimson Center in Washington. Although the various militias have their own reasons for attacking, there is a unity of purpose, analysts said — and a shared sense that Mr. Trump and his Arab allies are reluctant to pursue war, leaving Tehran and its proxies with an opportunity. “They see a moment,” Mr. Ostovar said. “They smell blood in the water, and they are pushing their advantage.” Truth Social Attached File Attached File |
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
|
"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday
Robert A. Heinlein, Friday