Posted: 8/11/2025 12:30:20 PM EDT
 Is MSTR a Ponzi? | Lyn Alden & Andy Constan It is a bit long, I know. It is a good debate though. Good points on both sides, though I do believe Lyn is winning. |
| Made it to the 1hr mark before I lost interest. I share lots of Andy’s concerns and that’s why don’t have interest in treasury companies. Ponzi scheme might not be the right phrase but I see what he’s getting at to pay preferred dividends by issuing more stock. Lyn made lots of good points on various things but none of them made me want to buy MSTR. |
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I don’t buy MSTR either, unless my short puts are exercised. I think many people make the mistake of looking at MSTR by itself, rather than as part of a premium selling strategy. I believe Andy is wrong big time about MSTRs counting BTC appreciation as being fraudulent. It might feel fraudulent to him, but the rules have changed. (Doesn’t mean you can’t lose, though). Those conventional earnings he thinks so highly of can also evaporate quickly. I also don’t understand his “rainy day fund” comments. Or his Ponzi adjacent comments. To my way of thinking it is either a Ponzi, or it is not. |
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Originally Posted By grendelbane: What is your definition of a Ponzi scheme? I didn’t agree with Andy’s definition. Originally Posted By grendelbane: Originally Posted By heavily_armed: About 1/2 way through. Lyn is smart, I have her book. But she hasn't convinced me yet MSTR is not a ponzi scheme. What is your definition of a Ponzi scheme? I didn’t agree with Andy’s definition. I'm not getting over my skis and providing definitions of things I'm not an authority about. People can define things narrowly to exclude MSTR in this case, and it sounds like this is what you are after. If I was Saylor and actually wanted to pull off a ponzi scheme, I'd obfuscate whatever I could to make it difficult to identify. Saylor et al may be completely above board but there is obfuscation IN MY OPINION of what they are doing. Maybe if I study this more (which I am doing) my opinion will become more charitable. I tried to get grok to spit out a transcript but it failed. |
| I bought 1000 shares at $60. Listened to all Saylor had to say and all the criticisms. I still don't know what the hell he's up to. It seems like everyone is happy with his plan whether it be leveraged ETFs, subscribers to his share offerings, and investors. Who knows how long that will last though. I sold 90% when it became a meme stock in every other thread on WSB at $465. |
| I don't think it is necessarily a ponzi scheme, but it is certainly a house of cards. Valuing the company far in excess of the bitcoin it holds make no sense. If you think the companies value is justified because the bitcoin it holds will worth so much more at some point in the future, why not just buy bitcoin directly, or a least a bitcoin etf, and skip paying the Saylor premium now. |
So Amit had Tom Lee discussing a few things. Around 29:30 Tom explains the treasury company idea in terms of 5 options they provide over holding the asset.
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Originally Posted By heavily_armed: So Amit had Tom Lee discussing a few things. Around 29:30 Tom explains the treasury company idea in terms of 5 options they provide over holding the asset.
Interesting, he brings up gov’ts buying treasury companies. I don’t know about other countries, but I think that would be a non-starter in the US. (I could be wrong though). Qatar might be able to do it. Not something I am expecting, though. |
Moderate-Length Barrel Evangelist
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Originally Posted By grendelbane: Timing is everything. IBIT is looking good pre-market, though I think it is too early to get back in. Since IBIT is up almost 11% today, I will admit I was was wrong about it being too early to get back in, at least for short term speculators. 
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Originally Posted By grendelbane: Well, it is impossible to discuss anything without a clear definition. Some believe that gold is a Ponzi. Saylor is very transparent about what MSTR is doing. For me, this takes it out of Ponzi territory. A Ponzi scheme, by definition, requires the falsification of returns. That's the key unique element. One that people who routinely misuse the term always leave out. |
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Originally Posted By 1168RGR: I sure wish I’d have gone short on MSTR instead of long on IBIT hahaha. Originally Posted By 1168RGR: Originally Posted By woodsie: MSTR is going to be a phenomenal vehicle for betting against Bitcoin at some point if this current halving cycle closes out similar to previous ones. I sure wish I’d have gone short on MSTR instead of long on IBIT hahaha. LOL, right? I'll double down though and say that as long as Mr. Saylor's scheme doesn't implode through this current bear market, MSTR will once again be a monster of a bet going into the next bull market. It was certainly the case after the LAST bear market. Bitcoin is nowhere near as deflated as it has been in previous bear markets though so I wouldn't have any particular confidence right now that this is the time to re-enter the MSTR trade. Bitcoin's last bottom was about 21% of it's prior peak. It's currently at 56% which if that held as the ultimate bottom would be the mildest bear market it ever went through. |