Foxtrot08 makes an oil thread! (Page 41 of 160)
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Originally Posted By thederrick106: Chat GPT is summarizing it as this with publicly available information which is not much at the moment. According to what Foxtrot08 has posted it's worse than being reported. I decided to error on the side of caution and added a few extra gallons of what I use in my stuff, so I am good on oil changes well beyond 2026 at this point. |
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The American Petroleum Institute (API) is opening Emergency Provisional Licensing (EPL) in response to the Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association’s request for emergency relief under the Engine Oil Licensing and Certification System, F+L Daily has learned. In the next few days, API is expected to open the EPL provisions of API 1509, acknowledging an industry-wide disruption of Group III base stock availability — EOLCS licensees affected by the shortage in Group III Base Stocks, will be able to apply individually for relief under Section 6.9 of API 1509. ILMA formally asked API earlier this month to invoke these provisions following missile and drone attacks on energy infrastructure across the Middle East — including facilities operated by ADNOC, Bapco, and Shell’s Pearl GTL plant — that have severely curtailed global Group III base oil production and effectively halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Spot availability has largely disappeared, with the remaining supply allocated and prices rising sharply, leaving many lubricant manufacturers unable to maintain approved formulations. What API 1509, Section 6.9 provides Section 6.9 of API 1509 — titled “Emergency Provisional Licensing” — exists precisely for unforeseeable events, natural disaster, explosion, fire, or act of terrorism which leads to a shortage of base stock or additive components. It allows EOLCS licensees to apply for short-term, 90-day, emergency provisional license when the supply of base oils or additives used to formulate API-licensed engine oils is disrupted. The relief permits licensees to temporarily substitute base oils or adjust formulations while remaining in compliance with their API licensing obligations during the crisis period. API has made clear in prior activations of Section 6.9 that the system-wide triggering of the provision does not automatically protect individual companies. Each EOLCS licensee that has been — or expects to be — impacted by the supply disruption must independently review the requirements of Section 6.9, document the disruption affecting their specific formulations, and contact API directly at [email protected] to initiate their own emergency provisional licence application. How individual companies can apply Licensees seeking relief under Section 6.9 are expected to: Demonstrate that their supply of a specific base oil or additive component has been disrupted due to the current Middle East crisis Identify the affected formulation(s) and the intended substitute component(s) Submit their application to the API, which will review each request on a case-by-case basis Comply with any conditions attached to the provisional licence, including timelines for reverting to the original formulation or completing a formal Management of Change process once the disruption has passed. Once a disruption is no longer in effect and API has formally communicated this to provisional licensees, each company holding an emergency provisional licence will typically be given a minimum of six months to obtain passing test results for their approved formulation and submit them to API for review. Hurricane Katrina as a precedent The lubricants industry has faced analogous situations before. When Hurricane Katrina struck the U.S. Gulf Coast in August 2005, it triggered widespread disruptions to refining and petrochemical infrastructure across the U.S. state of Louisiana and the surrounding region — cutting off supplies of base oils, additives, and other lubricant components at short notice. The crisis underscored the need for a formal emergency mechanism within the EOLCS framework, and the experiences of that period contributed to shaping the emergency provisional licensing provisions in API 1509 today. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 was the most recent precedent for a full activation of Section 6.9, when API urged all EOLCS licensees to apply for emergency provisional licence in the event that pandemic-related shutdowns disrupted their component supply chains. That activation carried a 120-day effective period, with provisions to extend, and required all products to revert to their original approved formulations within 90 days of expiry, or complete a formal Management of Change within 180 days. Industry observers expect a similar structure to govern any relief granted in the current situation, with the duration likely tied to the evolving conditions in the Middle East and the pace at which Group III supply chains can be restored. https://www.fuelsandlubes.com/fl-daily-exclusive-responding-to-ilmas-emergency-request-api-will-announce-emergency-provisional-licensing/ |
The flow of memes cannot be stopped
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I made this mandatory reading for my entire sales team, in preparation of tomorrow's meeting. https://jobbersworld.com/2026/03/24/group-iii-tightens-as-prices-surge-and-supply-constraints-deepen/ This was also sent out: https://www.ttnews.com/articles/gulf-energy-recover-iran-war Most of the first article is what has already been covered, however - key take aways: 55% of the US Group III base oils comes through the Strait. Shell's Pearl plant could be down for a year or more. Product on the spot market is going to cease to exist. Current index's just don't show how bad this is going to be. Group III markets probably won't stabilize until Chevron and XOM bring their Group III / III+ production online in Q4. Shell is also bringing Group III/III+ production to Germany, in 2027. On top of all this. Nutrien, Lima Ohio - One of the largest production facilities for fertilizer and DEF in the U.S., went offline today for emergency maintenance issues. It is expected to be down for 14 days. So now the midwest will probably face urea shortages, as everyone including me, is on allocation. Currently unhinged, Foxtrot08 (also my new email signature. Just with my name and VP of Sales.) |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
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OK, so I'm just gonna be the dumb guy here and spell this out. I only use full synthetic every 5K. I pay a local small independant shop for all needs including oil on my 2 vehicles out of warranty. I have light truck getting an oil change tommorrow- I drive it 3 seasaons. I have a sedan I drive in winter and then only on Saturdays spring, summer, and fall- 2,500 left until next change. I have a three year old vehicle that gets it's oil changed on a time basis, only 2,400 miles on it right now, only at the Mazda dealership. Next change coming up first week in October. What do I need to do? Talk 2 me like I am a Golden Retreiver. Thanks!!!!!!!!! |
To err is human, to forgive was not SAC policy.
NorCal call sign "Dystopia"
NorCal call sign "Dystopia"
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Originally Posted By GoGo: OK, so I'm just gonna be the dumb guy here and spell this out. I only use full synthetic every 5K. I pay a local small independant shop for all needs including oil on my 2 vehicles out of warranty. I have light truck getting an oil change tommorrow- I drive it 3 seasaons. I have a sedan I drive in winter and then only on Saturdays spring, summer, and fall- 2,500 left until next change. I have a three year old vehicle that gets it's oil changed on a time basis, only 2,400 miles on it right now, only at the Mazda dealership. Next change coming up first week in October. What do I need to do? Talk 2 me like I am a Golden Retreiver. Thanks!!!!!!!!! You’re probably fine. The next ~3-6 months will be the tough part. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
|
Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: I made this mandatory reading for my entire sales team, in preparation of tomorrow's meeting. https://jobbersworld.com/2026/03/24/group-iii-tightens-as-prices-surge-and-supply-constraints-deepen/ This was also sent out: https://www.ttnews.com/articles/gulf-energy-recover-iran-war Most of the first article is what has already been covered, however - key take aways: 55% of the US Group III base oils comes through the Strait. Shell's Pearl plant could be down for a year or more. Product on the spot market is going to cease to exist. Current index's just don't show how bad this is going to be. Group III markets probably won't stabilize until Chevron and XOM bring their Group III / III+ production online in Q4. Shell is also bringing Group III/III+ production to Germany, in 2027. On top of all this. Nutrien, Lima Ohio - One of the largest production facilities for fertilizer and DEF in the U.S., went offline today for emergency maintenance issues. It is expected to be down for 14 days. So now the midwest will probably face urea shortages, as everyone including me, is on allocation. Currently unhinged, Foxtrot08 (also my new email signature. Just with my name and VP of Sales.) How much of an impact on industrial products like slideway, gear and hydraulic oils? I’ve had a hard enough time sourcing Shell Tonna S2MX68 lately. I know there are alternatives like Vactra #2 but several of my machines specify the Shell products. |
Life's battles don't always go to the stronger or faster man. In the end, the one who wins is the one who thinks he can! - SCI, NRA
Team Ranstad
Team Ranstad
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Originally Posted By TinSpinner: How much of an impact on industrial products like slideway, gear and hydraulic oils? I’ve had a hard enough time sourcing Shell Tonna S2MX68 lately. I know there are alternatives like Vactra #2 but several of my machines specify the Shell products. Originally Posted By TinSpinner: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: I made this mandatory reading for my entire sales team, in preparation of tomorrow's meeting. https://jobbersworld.com/2026/03/24/group-iii-tightens-as-prices-surge-and-supply-constraints-deepen/ This was also sent out: https://www.ttnews.com/articles/gulf-energy-recover-iran-war Most of the first article is what has already been covered, however - key take aways: 55% of the US Group III base oils comes through the Strait. Shell's Pearl plant could be down for a year or more. Product on the spot market is going to cease to exist. Current index's just don't show how bad this is going to be. Group III markets probably won't stabilize until Chevron and XOM bring their Group III / III+ production online in Q4. Shell is also bringing Group III/III+ production to Germany, in 2027. On top of all this. Nutrien, Lima Ohio - One of the largest production facilities for fertilizer and DEF in the U.S., went offline today for emergency maintenance issues. It is expected to be down for 14 days. So now the midwest will probably face urea shortages, as everyone including me, is on allocation. Currently unhinged, Foxtrot08 (also my new email signature. Just with my name and VP of Sales.) How much of an impact on industrial products like slideway, gear and hydraulic oils? I’ve had a hard enough time sourcing Shell Tonna S2MX68 lately. I know there are alternatives like Vactra #2 but several of my machines specify the Shell products. Non-synthetic way oils (slideway), gear oils and hydraulic oils won’t be super affected. They’re generally all straight group 2 products. Gear oils even being group 1. Which, group 1 is tight right now because the ARG fire. But they should be back up and running in a week or two. That being said, group 2s are going up in price. Between 65 cents and a dollar a gallon right now. Certainly not as dramatic as group 3s. Group 3s will affect your high efficiency hydraulic oils. Some full synthetic (non PAO) based gear oils, and of course the hardest hit will be your engine oils and transmission fluids. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
|
Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: I made this mandatory reading for my entire sales team, in preparation of tomorrow's meeting. https://jobbersworld.com/2026/03/24/group-iii-tightens-as-prices-surge-and-supply-constraints-deepen/ This was also sent out: https://www.ttnews.com/articles/gulf-energy-recover-iran-war Most of the first article is what has already been covered, however - key take aways: 55% of the US Group III base oils comes through the Strait. Shell's Pearl plant could be down for a year or more. Product on the spot market is going to cease to exist. Current index's just don't show how bad this is going to be. Group III markets probably won't stabilize until Chevron and XOM bring their Group III / III+ production online in Q4. Shell is also bringing Group III/III+ production to Germany, in 2027. On top of all this. Nutrien, Lima Ohio - One of the largest production facilities for fertilizer and DEF in the U.S., went offline today for emergency maintenance issues. It is expected to be down for 14 days. So now the midwest will probably face urea shortages, as everyone including me, is on allocation. Currently unhinged, Foxtrot08 (also my new email signature. Just with my name and VP of Sales.) What are you saying? We are going to have to go down the damn road at 50 mph with the truck peeping every 30 seconds that we’re out of def! |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Non-synthetic way oils (slideway), gear oils and hydraulic oils won’t be super affected. They’re generally all straight group 2 products. Gear oils even being group 1. Which, group 1 is tight right now because the ARG fire. But they should be back up and running in a week or two. That being said, group 2s are going up in price. Between 65 cents and a dollar a gallon right now. Certainly not as dramatic as group 3s. Group 3s will affect your high efficiency hydraulic oils. Some full synthetic (non PAO) based gear oils, and of course the hardest hit will be your engine oils and transmission fluids. Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By TinSpinner: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: I made this mandatory reading for my entire sales team, in preparation of tomorrow's meeting. https://jobbersworld.com/2026/03/24/group-iii-tightens-as-prices-surge-and-supply-constraints-deepen/ This was also sent out: https://www.ttnews.com/articles/gulf-energy-recover-iran-war Most of the first article is what has already been covered, however - key take aways: 55% of the US Group III base oils comes through the Strait. Shell's Pearl plant could be down for a year or more. Product on the spot market is going to cease to exist. Current index's just don't show how bad this is going to be. Group III markets probably won't stabilize until Chevron and XOM bring their Group III / III+ production online in Q4. Shell is also bringing Group III/III+ production to Germany, in 2027. On top of all this. Nutrien, Lima Ohio - One of the largest production facilities for fertilizer and DEF in the U.S., went offline today for emergency maintenance issues. It is expected to be down for 14 days. So now the midwest will probably face urea shortages, as everyone including me, is on allocation. Currently unhinged, Foxtrot08 (also my new email signature. Just with my name and VP of Sales.) How much of an impact on industrial products like slideway, gear and hydraulic oils? I’ve had a hard enough time sourcing Shell Tonna S2MX68 lately. I know there are alternatives like Vactra #2 but several of my machines specify the Shell products. Non-synthetic way oils (slideway), gear oils and hydraulic oils won’t be super affected. They’re generally all straight group 2 products. Gear oils even being group 1. Which, group 1 is tight right now because the ARG fire. But they should be back up and running in a week or two. That being said, group 2s are going up in price. Between 65 cents and a dollar a gallon right now. Certainly not as dramatic as group 3s. Group 3s will affect your high efficiency hydraulic oils. Some full synthetic (non PAO) based gear oils, and of course the hardest hit will be your engine oils and transmission fluids. Thanks for the reply. My supply issues to date have been due to consolidation, my local supplier was bought out then that new company just got bought out. I’m not even sure where they are shipping from now but my original supplier was 15 minutes away. |
Life's battles don't always go to the stronger or faster man. In the end, the one who wins is the one who thinks he can! - SCI, NRA
Team Ranstad
Team Ranstad
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Originally Posted By TinSpinner: Thanks for the reply. My supply issues to date have been due to consolidation, my local supplier was bought out then that new company just got bought out. I’m not even sure where they are shipping from now but my original supplier was 15 minutes away. Originally Posted By TinSpinner: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By TinSpinner: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: I made this mandatory reading for my entire sales team, in preparation of tomorrow's meeting. https://jobbersworld.com/2026/03/24/group-iii-tightens-as-prices-surge-and-supply-constraints-deepen/ This was also sent out: https://www.ttnews.com/articles/gulf-energy-recover-iran-war Most of the first article is what has already been covered, however - key take aways: 55% of the US Group III base oils comes through the Strait. Shell's Pearl plant could be down for a year or more. Product on the spot market is going to cease to exist. Current index's just don't show how bad this is going to be. Group III markets probably won't stabilize until Chevron and XOM bring their Group III / III+ production online in Q4. Shell is also bringing Group III/III+ production to Germany, in 2027. On top of all this. Nutrien, Lima Ohio - One of the largest production facilities for fertilizer and DEF in the U.S., went offline today for emergency maintenance issues. It is expected to be down for 14 days. So now the midwest will probably face urea shortages, as everyone including me, is on allocation. Currently unhinged, Foxtrot08 (also my new email signature. Just with my name and VP of Sales.) How much of an impact on industrial products like slideway, gear and hydraulic oils? I’ve had a hard enough time sourcing Shell Tonna S2MX68 lately. I know there are alternatives like Vactra #2 but several of my machines specify the Shell products. Non-synthetic way oils (slideway), gear oils and hydraulic oils won’t be super affected. They’re generally all straight group 2 products. Gear oils even being group 1. Which, group 1 is tight right now because the ARG fire. But they should be back up and running in a week or two. That being said, group 2s are going up in price. Between 65 cents and a dollar a gallon right now. Certainly not as dramatic as group 3s. Group 3s will affect your high efficiency hydraulic oils. Some full synthetic (non PAO) based gear oils, and of course the hardest hit will be your engine oils and transmission fluids. Thanks for the reply. My supply issues to date have been due to consolidation, my local supplier was bought out then that new company just got bought out. I’m not even sure where they are shipping from now but my original supplier was 15 minutes away. Private equity is literally taking over this industry. And it generally sucks for the end user. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
|
I'm mostly set for engine oil for the next couple of years. I need to pick up another couple of jugs of transmission fluid, though. I've been stocking up on gear oil since it sounds like it's going to take a hit as well. I guess it's hard to say how long this is going to go on and how bad it will truly get? It sounds like few people have a clue what's going on behind the scenes right now. |
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Originally Posted By TheLASwamp: I'm mostly set for engine oil for the next couple of years. I need to pick up another couple of jugs of transmission fluid, though. I've been stocking up on gear oil since it sounds like it's going to take a hit as well. I guess it's hard to say how long this is going to go on and how bad it will truly get? It sounds like few people have a clue what's going on behind the scenes right now. I don’t expect group 3 based products to normalize / stabilize until 2027 at this rate. But it’s really hard to tell with the damage done over there. And how crunched everything is. Once supply starts running dry. It’s going to go pretty nuts. Lubricants is a very very small, niche part of the oil industry. So it’s very over looked. And a lot of people shrug it off. The problem with that is, there’s no plan b. As for transmission fluids. At least PAO / Ester products won’t be super affected. We make those in the U.S. Just group 3s have sky rocketed in popularity in the last ~20 years. And are used in everything. The supply chain just hasn’t shifted to the U.S… yet. In 2027 it will. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
|
Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: I don't expect group 3 based products to normalize / stabilize until 2027 at this rate. But it's really hard to tell with the damage done over there. And how crunched everything is. Once supply starts running dry. It's going to go pretty nuts. Lubricants is a very very small, niche part of the oil industry. So it's very over looked. And a lot of people shrug it off. The problem with that is, there's no plan b. As for transmission fluids. At least PAO / Ester products won't be super affected. We make those in the U.S. Just group 3s have sky rocketed in popularity in the last ~20 years. And are used in everything. The supply chain just hasn't shifted to the U.S yet. In 2027 it will. I went to Wal Mart on my lunch break and picked up a few more jugs of oil and some transmission fluid since I have a change coming up. What's the story on grease? Will there be shortages of that? If so, I guess I need to pick up a few tubes for the grease guns the next time I'm at WM. I still need to pick up another two quarts of gear oil, although I'm not really close to the next change. |
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Originally Posted By TheLASwamp: When people start going to Wal Mart and Auto Zone and there's no oil on the shelves, it's going to be bad. I expect panic buying if word gets out that oil is going to experience major shortages. That's what's scariest. Not that it will be expensive, but that you can't get it because it's unavailable. I went to Wal Mart on my lunch break and picked up a few more jugs of oil and some transmission fluid since I have a change coming up. What's the story on grease? Will there be shortages of that? If so, I guess I need to pick up a few tubes for the grease guns the next time I'm at WM. I still need to pick up another two quarts of gear oil, although I'm not really close to the next change. Grease is immune from a base oil perspective. However if you are using lithium or lithium complex greases expect continued price escalation and supply tightening. Lithium is out of balance globally along with other precious metals. |
The flow of memes cannot be stopped
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Originally Posted By Manchu65: Grease is immune from a base oil perspective. However if you are using lithium or lithium complex greases expect continued price escalation and supply tightening. Lithium is out of balance globally along with other precious metals. I've told family and friends to stock up on oils they know they are going to need in the next year or two. Now is the time to get it on the shelf. |
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Originally Posted By TheLASwamp: I use moly greases in my two guns. For things like the zerks on the mower, the trailers, and my floor jacks. I have a stash of lithium grease but I don't use it often. I saw Mobil 1 grease in the store and it reminded me to ask about it. I've told family and friends to stock up on oils they know they are going to need in the next year or two. Now is the time to get it on the shelf. Originally Posted By TheLASwamp: Originally Posted By Manchu65: Grease is immune from a base oil perspective. However if you are using lithium or lithium complex greases expect continued price escalation and supply tightening. Lithium is out of balance globally along with other precious metals. I've told family and friends to stock up on oils they know they are going to need in the next year or two. Now is the time to get it on the shelf. As he said, which is absolutely correct. Grease is pretty much immune. Greases generally don’t use group 3 base stocks… for anything. I mean there’s probably some exotic formulation that Zie Germanz make that has it. But every day stuff is fine. No shortage there. The shortage of grease in 2021 was because 50% of the grease manufacturing capacity in the U.S. burned down. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
|
completely unrelated to current events but after 9 years motorcraft is now selling 55gallon drums of ULV. w/ 8 month shelf life. i know we talked about this before with regards to additive drop out, not sure if it was in this thread or not. we'd definitely go through a drum in that time span. worth it for us? also i can definitely haze the lube bay dorks into stirring it with a stick if that makes it last longer. |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: I don’t expect group 3 based products to normalize / stabilize until 2027 at this rate. But it’s really hard to tell with the damage done over there. And how crunched everything is. Once supply starts running dry. It’s going to go pretty nuts. Lubricants is a very very small, niche part of the oil industry. So it’s very over looked. And a lot of people shrug it off. The problem with that is, there’s no plan b. As for transmission fluids. At least PAO / Ester products won’t be super affected. We make those in the U.S. Just group 3s have sky rocketed in popularity in the last ~20 years. And are used in everything. The supply chain just hasn’t shifted to the U.S… yet. In 2027 it will. Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By TheLASwamp: I'm mostly set for engine oil for the next couple of years. I need to pick up another couple of jugs of transmission fluid, though. I've been stocking up on gear oil since it sounds like it's going to take a hit as well. I guess it's hard to say how long this is going to go on and how bad it will truly get? It sounds like few people have a clue what's going on behind the scenes right now. I don’t expect group 3 based products to normalize / stabilize until 2027 at this rate. But it’s really hard to tell with the damage done over there. And how crunched everything is. Once supply starts running dry. It’s going to go pretty nuts. Lubricants is a very very small, niche part of the oil industry. So it’s very over looked. And a lot of people shrug it off. The problem with that is, there’s no plan b. As for transmission fluids. At least PAO / Ester products won’t be super affected. We make those in the U.S. Just group 3s have sky rocketed in popularity in the last ~20 years. And are used in everything. The supply chain just hasn’t shifted to the U.S… yet. In 2027 it will. This is a weird question and may be difficult to answer; With that article about the API and emergency provisional licensing, would that potentially increase the potential of sub-par product? Especially with many owners getting used to long OCIs (especially if prices spike AND availability gets spotty), it would suck even more if there’s a slew of engine failures in the next year. |
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Originally Posted By Keekleberrys: completely unrelated to current events but after 9 years motorcraft is now selling 55gallon drums of ULV. w/ 8 month shelf life. i know we talked about this before with regards to additive drop out, not sure if it was in this thread or not. we'd definitely go through a drum in that time span. worth it for us? also i can definitely haze the lube bay dorks into stirring it with a stick if that makes it last longer. If you’re going to use it, absolutely. We sell a few large transmission shops that otherwise we’re buying pallets of ULV for us. Completely game changing that they put it in drums. As for hazing them… tell them to get together and shake it. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
|
Originally Posted By bluemax_1: This is a weird question and may be difficult to answer; With that article about the API and emergency provisional licensing, would that potentially increase the potential of sub-par product? Especially with many owners getting used to long OCIs (especially if prices spike AND availability gets spotty), it would suck even more if there’s a slew of engine failures in the next year. Originally Posted By bluemax_1: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By TheLASwamp: I'm mostly set for engine oil for the next couple of years. I need to pick up another couple of jugs of transmission fluid, though. I've been stocking up on gear oil since it sounds like it's going to take a hit as well. I guess it's hard to say how long this is going to go on and how bad it will truly get? It sounds like few people have a clue what's going on behind the scenes right now. I don’t expect group 3 based products to normalize / stabilize until 2027 at this rate. But it’s really hard to tell with the damage done over there. And how crunched everything is. Once supply starts running dry. It’s going to go pretty nuts. Lubricants is a very very small, niche part of the oil industry. So it’s very over looked. And a lot of people shrug it off. The problem with that is, there’s no plan b. As for transmission fluids. At least PAO / Ester products won’t be super affected. We make those in the U.S. Just group 3s have sky rocketed in popularity in the last ~20 years. And are used in everything. The supply chain just hasn’t shifted to the U.S… yet. In 2027 it will. This is a weird question and may be difficult to answer; With that article about the API and emergency provisional licensing, would that potentially increase the potential of sub-par product? Especially with many owners getting used to long OCIs (especially if prices spike AND availability gets spotty), it would suck even more if there’s a slew of engine failures in the next year. There is absolutely a potential for that. But the API is currently going to evaluate it on a case by case basis. Not universally. So I’m not sure how much impact that really will have, as the main issue right now? There’s just not enough base oil. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
|
Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: There is absolutely a potential for that. But the API is currently going to evaluate it on a case by case basis. Not universally. So I’m not sure how much impact that really will have, as the main issue right now? There’s just not enough base oil. Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By bluemax_1: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By TheLASwamp: I'm mostly set for engine oil for the next couple of years. I need to pick up another couple of jugs of transmission fluid, though. I've been stocking up on gear oil since it sounds like it's going to take a hit as well. I guess it's hard to say how long this is going to go on and how bad it will truly get? It sounds like few people have a clue what's going on behind the scenes right now. I don’t expect group 3 based products to normalize / stabilize until 2027 at this rate. But it’s really hard to tell with the damage done over there. And how crunched everything is. Once supply starts running dry. It’s going to go pretty nuts. Lubricants is a very very small, niche part of the oil industry. So it’s very over looked. And a lot of people shrug it off. The problem with that is, there’s no plan b. As for transmission fluids. At least PAO / Ester products won’t be super affected. We make those in the U.S. Just group 3s have sky rocketed in popularity in the last ~20 years. And are used in everything. The supply chain just hasn’t shifted to the U.S… yet. In 2027 it will. This is a weird question and may be difficult to answer; With that article about the API and emergency provisional licensing, would that potentially increase the potential of sub-par product? Especially with many owners getting used to long OCIs (especially if prices spike AND availability gets spotty), it would suck even more if there’s a slew of engine failures in the next year. There is absolutely a potential for that. But the API is currently going to evaluate it on a case by case basis. Not universally. So I’m not sure how much impact that really will have, as the main issue right now? There’s just not enough base oil. 😬 Glad I’m a nutter. My oil stash covers the vehicles for the next 2 years at current use rates 😅 |
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AZ, USA
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: I don’t expect group 3 based products to normalize / stabilize until 2027 at this rate. But it’s really hard to tell with the damage done over there. And how crunched everything is. Once supply starts running dry. It’s going to go pretty nuts. Lubricants is a very very small, niche part of the oil industry. So it’s very over looked. And a lot of people shrug it off. The problem with that is, there’s no plan b. As for transmission fluids. At least PAO / Ester products won’t be super affected. We make those in the U.S. Just group 3s have sky rocketed in popularity in the last ~20 years. And are used in everything. The supply chain just hasn’t shifted to the U.S… yet. In 2027 it will. If we see issues with buying retail packaged oil at Walmart, Autozone, etc., how bad will this affect places like dealership service centers, oil change places etc. that buy their oil wholesale? Do they get better access to the product thats available because of their volume purchase, or is it going to be equally felt across people that take their vehicles in to get the oil changed vs. the folks that do it in their garage? |
Welcome to wherever you are.
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Quick Question: Looking at a "fun car" for the summers. I found one I really like, but it has sat in the garage for the last 2 years and only driven about 100 miles. The owner admitted he hasn't changed the oil because it still hasn't reached the milage requirement. Fully synthetic if that matters. I plan on changing the oil ASAP if I decide to pull the trigger, but my question is: would it be safe to pick it up and drive it home (100 miles or so) to change the oil? |
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Originally Posted By drewptwo: Quick Question: Looking at a "fun car" for the summers. I found one I really like, but it has sat in the garage for the last 2 years and only driven about 100 miles. The owner admitted he hasn't changed the oil because it still hasn't reached the milage requirement. Fully synthetic if that matters. I plan on changing the oil ASAP if I decide to pull the trigger, but my question is: would it be safe to pick it up and drive it home (100 miles or so) to change the oil? Did it start up fine? Most of the wear is on startup or hard use. During normal operation, lubrication is mostly with the hydrodynamic layer (parts aren’t really making contact. They’re separated by a microscopic layer of fluid). TBN and oxidation; whatever’s happened, has happened. I wouldn’t think the extra 100 miles is going to make much difference. I’d think taking it easy on the drive home, should be fine. |
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Originally Posted By LV1976: If we see issues with buying retail packaged oil at Walmart, Autozone, etc., how bad will this affect places like dealership service centers, oil change places etc. that buy their oil wholesale? Do they get better access to the product thats available because of their volume purchase, or is it going to be equally felt across people that take their vehicles in to get the oil changed vs. the folks that do it in their garage? Originally Posted By LV1976: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: I don’t expect group 3 based products to normalize / stabilize until 2027 at this rate. But it’s really hard to tell with the damage done over there. And how crunched everything is. Once supply starts running dry. It’s going to go pretty nuts. Lubricants is a very very small, niche part of the oil industry. So it’s very over looked. And a lot of people shrug it off. The problem with that is, there’s no plan b. As for transmission fluids. At least PAO / Ester products won’t be super affected. We make those in the U.S. Just group 3s have sky rocketed in popularity in the last ~20 years. And are used in everything. The supply chain just hasn’t shifted to the U.S… yet. In 2027 it will. If we see issues with buying retail packaged oil at Walmart, Autozone, etc., how bad will this affect places like dealership service centers, oil change places etc. that buy their oil wholesale? Do they get better access to the product thats available because of their volume purchase, or is it going to be equally felt across people that take their vehicles in to get the oil changed vs. the folks that do it in their garage? It’s going to be really hit and miss. I think XOM and P66 will probably be “okay.” That’s Toyota, GM, Ford and Honda. I think idemtisu will probably be okay. That’s Mazda and Subaru. Shell / Pennzoil is fucked. That’s everything Fiat / Mopar, BMW and VW group. As well as jiffy lube. Private shops are going to be however good their distributors are. I’m going to make sure that my customers don’t run out of oil. And I’m going to leverage every connection I have for supply. But it’s going to get really damn weird for a while. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
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Originally Posted By drewptwo: Quick Question: Looking at a "fun car" for the summers. I found one I really like, but it has sat in the garage for the last 2 years and only driven about 100 miles. The owner admitted he hasn't changed the oil because it still hasn't reached the milage requirement. Fully synthetic if that matters. I plan on changing the oil ASAP if I decide to pull the trigger, but my question is: would it be safe to pick it up and drive it home (100 miles or so) to change the oil? Okay so check list: Does the dipstick have oil on it? Does the oil on the dipstick look like oil? Or chocolate syrup? If it doesn’t have oil. That’s gonna be a problem. If the “oil” looks like brownie batter. That’s also a problem. If it has oil and looks like oil, you’re probably gonna be good. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
| Thanks for the responses guys. Oil looked good on inspection of the stick. Car fired right up and sounded fine. It has pneumatic lifters, so I was worried that might be an issue. No tick or anything. No smoke on startup or any of that. Everything mechanically looked sound. Was more concerned about the oil lasting the trip, but nothing during the test drive gave me concern. |
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Originally Posted By drewptwo: Thanks for the responses guys. Oil looked good on inspection of the stick. Car fired right up and sounded fine. It has pneumatic lifters, so I was worried that might be an issue. No tick or anything. No smoke on startup or any of that. Everything mechanically looked sound. Was more concerned about the oil lasting the trip, but nothing during the test drive gave me concern. 
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Originally Posted By xd341: It has hydraulic lifters, but we know what you meant. Lol, yes my bad. Going through with it, will pick it up tomorrow. Everything checks out. Thankfully brother is a master mechanic and teaches at a college. Sent him a bunch of videos and such. He wasn't to concerned for the short trip. My wife on the other hand is not thrilled. The last vehicle I bought I was told "do you want something with wheels or do you want to be married?". Pray for me. |
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Originally Posted By drewptwo: Lol, yes my bad. Going through with it, will pick it up tomorrow. Everything checks out. Thankfully brother is a master mechanic and teaches at a college. Sent him a bunch of videos and such. He wasn't to concerned for the short trip. My wife on the other hand is not thrilled. The last vehicle I bought I was told "do you want something with wheels or do you want to be married?". Pray for me. Originally Posted By drewptwo: Originally Posted By xd341: It has hydraulic lifters, but we know what you meant. Lol, yes my bad. Going through with it, will pick it up tomorrow. Everything checks out. Thankfully brother is a master mechanic and teaches at a college. Sent him a bunch of videos and such. He wasn't to concerned for the short trip. My wife on the other hand is not thrilled. The last vehicle I bought I was told "do you want something with wheels or do you want to be married?". Pray for me. Should’ve just told her, “I’m an arfcommer, now. Our motto is ‘Get Both’ ” 
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Originally Posted By boolzi: What are you saying? We are going to have to go down the damn road at 50 mph with the truck peeping every 30 seconds that we’re out of def! https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/trump-administration-announces-latest-action-address-diesel-exhaust-fluid-def-system?_aem_ByyqDnPaOrhHiO2lNI4SlA |
"Everything popular is wrong."
-Oscar Wilde
-Oscar Wilde
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Originally Posted By FedDC: Maybe DEF is dead…with the AK cold climate law they are working on. in the past some of the Mode 06 OBD drive cycles and procedures required to clear forced idle and speed limited modes on SCR equipped rigs require the temperature to be above a certain temperature. ive always wondered what they do in alaska, probably just delete them but whats the alternative. Come back in summer? lol. |
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Originally Posted By Fallen: Not an oil question but you’ll probably have an answer. How can the Casey’s and Fuel Mart at I75, exit 118 be charging 50 cents a gallon less than everyone else. I filled up at $3.19/ gal. Every where else was $3.67+ There’s a number of pricing structures that would make them do that. But, primarily they’re probably just trying to get market share currently. So they price substantially lower than the competition. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
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Originally Posted By dirtyboy: Antifreeze is circulated through the def tank to warm it. In Alaska, I doubt they shut diesels off. I don’t know the specific details, but they were claiming that DEF cold weather failures account for something like 80% of their fleet downtime and cost huge money. |
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Originally Posted By FedDC: I don't know the specific details, but they were claiming that DEF cold weather failures account for something like 80% of their fleet downtime and cost huge money. |
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DEF is not going away. One of my customers just had the EPA show up last week. 12 trucks deleted. He’s looking at 7-8+ figures in fines once the court battle settles. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: DEF is not going away. One of my customers just had the EPA show up last week. 12 trucks deleted. He's looking at 7-8+ figures in fines once the court battle settles. |
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Originally Posted By TheLASwamp: Typical of the left, I'm sure the entire purpose behind forcing DEF use is to make diesel use as difficult, expensive, onerous, and red-taped up as any bureaucracy can make it. |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: DEF is not going away. One of my customers just had the EPA show up last week. 12 trucks deleted. He's looking at 7-8+ figures in fines once the court battle settles. |
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Originally Posted By xd341: i saw the announcement but not any details, what did they actually change? Originally Posted By xd341: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: DEF is not going away. One of my customers just had the EPA show up last week. 12 trucks deleted. He's looking at 7-8+ figures in fines once the court battle settles. Basically double nox sensors vs def quality sensor. And the final ruling on derate hasn’t come yet. But they’re going to extend derate time and how much it’s actually limited. But 2027 engines are in full swing. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.