Foxtrot08 makes an oil thread! (Page 37 of 160)
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Originally Posted By theskuh: Thanks, Ah I was confused. They were talking about overall reserves. I was thinking like a strategic reserve or something that was easily accessible. Its crazy they have more oil than most of the middle east and screwed themselves out of the wealth. They should have planes for their falcons not bread lines. Long term incompetence. When you have 30+ years, really 50+ years of incompetent leadership when it comes to oil production. This is what you get. Then add in government incompetence. We’ve been a City Service distributor since the 1930s? If i remember right. They made our oil in WW2. I have a pretty cool WW2 era oil can, with our logo on it from back then. City Services became Citgo. As they were purchased by PDVSA. Back in the 90s was when the incompetence started. They had their moments in the late 90s of being a good oil company. But after 2000-2002… yeah it fell off hard. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
|
Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Proven vs Recoverable are very, very different numbers. What is actually Recoverable, is an enormous question. They have absolutely enormous proven reserves. But I don’t think I’ve ever seen an accurate recoverable estimate. Or even a ballpark accurate estimate. Like, I’ve heard a number that in the field they’re in, the Orinoco Belt, has up to 1.4T barrels of oil, in theory. But could be as low as 303 billion barrels of oil. But to be recoverable, you have to take economics into consideration. How much does it cost to produce the barrel of oil? Is it technically possible to recover it? Can it be refined / is actually useful? Like a lot of questions there that I can’t answer. I’m not a petroleum engineer in Venezuela, nor can I predict the future of oil economics. As the more we look, the more we find. There was just a test well drilled literally across the street from me. I could see the rig from my house. It was .63 miles from my front door by air. And just a single leg blew the doors off of every other exploratory well in Ohio. So… great question. But generally I would say the numbers being touted by the media are… high~ish. Historically it’s been between 30-40% recoverable depending on the field. So 303 billion barrels, would be around 121B. But, if they take the 1.4T number…. That would be 484B. And I’m being kind at 40% with a heavy sour crude. Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By theskuh: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: High. Like guaranteed, high. If they can get their shit together. They have the second largest refinery in the world. And it hasn't even recently been updated. Last time it was updated it had the ability to process 955,000bpd ~ish. They also have other refineries. They currently produce ~230,000bpd. So there's about 2-2.5m bpd capacity sitting offline depending on who you ask. Maybe more after updates, debottlenecking, technology upgrades, export updates, etc etc etc. I mean they probably have the ability to turn on even more than that, depending on who you ask. General consensus I've always seen is they're running between 7-10% capacity vs *2012* production numbers. Which, could have been low as well. Especially when factoring in upgrades and updates. What about their reserves? worth as much as they are saying? Proven vs Recoverable are very, very different numbers. What is actually Recoverable, is an enormous question. They have absolutely enormous proven reserves. But I don’t think I’ve ever seen an accurate recoverable estimate. Or even a ballpark accurate estimate. Like, I’ve heard a number that in the field they’re in, the Orinoco Belt, has up to 1.4T barrels of oil, in theory. But could be as low as 303 billion barrels of oil. But to be recoverable, you have to take economics into consideration. How much does it cost to produce the barrel of oil? Is it technically possible to recover it? Can it be refined / is actually useful? Like a lot of questions there that I can’t answer. I’m not a petroleum engineer in Venezuela, nor can I predict the future of oil economics. As the more we look, the more we find. There was just a test well drilled literally across the street from me. I could see the rig from my house. It was .63 miles from my front door by air. And just a single leg blew the doors off of every other exploratory well in Ohio. So… great question. But generally I would say the numbers being touted by the media are… high~ish. Historically it’s been between 30-40% recoverable depending on the field. So 303 billion barrels, would be around 121B. But, if they take the 1.4T number…. That would be 484B. And I’m being kind at 40% with a heavy sour crude. Wait until you all see Trump negotiate an exclusive use for Guyana light crude as Diluent for the Venezuelan crude to make a medium sour... for sole use at Gulf Refineries... while also cutting off Europe/India/China from 900k BPD of light crude and simultaneously cutting off exports to V of Russian naptha for diluent. So many 2nd and 3rd order effects underway. 2026 is gonna be lit. |
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Originally Posted By PointBlank82: Wait until you all see Trump negotiate an exclusive use for Guyana light crude as Diluent for the Venezuelan crude to make a medium sour... for sole use at Gulf Refineries... while also cutting off Europe/India/China from 900k BPD of light crude and simultaneously cutting off exports to V of Russian naptha for diluent. So many 2nd and 3rd order effects underway. 2026 is gonna be lit. Originally Posted By PointBlank82: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By theskuh: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: High. Like guaranteed, high. If they can get their shit together. They have the second largest refinery in the world. And it hasn't even recently been updated. Last time it was updated it had the ability to process 955,000bpd ~ish. They also have other refineries. They currently produce ~230,000bpd. So there's about 2-2.5m bpd capacity sitting offline depending on who you ask. Maybe more after updates, debottlenecking, technology upgrades, export updates, etc etc etc. I mean they probably have the ability to turn on even more than that, depending on who you ask. General consensus I've always seen is they're running between 7-10% capacity vs *2012* production numbers. Which, could have been low as well. Especially when factoring in upgrades and updates. What about their reserves? worth as much as they are saying? Proven vs Recoverable are very, very different numbers. What is actually Recoverable, is an enormous question. They have absolutely enormous proven reserves. But I don’t think I’ve ever seen an accurate recoverable estimate. Or even a ballpark accurate estimate. Like, I’ve heard a number that in the field they’re in, the Orinoco Belt, has up to 1.4T barrels of oil, in theory. But could be as low as 303 billion barrels of oil. But to be recoverable, you have to take economics into consideration. How much does it cost to produce the barrel of oil? Is it technically possible to recover it? Can it be refined / is actually useful? Like a lot of questions there that I can’t answer. I’m not a petroleum engineer in Venezuela, nor can I predict the future of oil economics. As the more we look, the more we find. There was just a test well drilled literally across the street from me. I could see the rig from my house. It was .63 miles from my front door by air. And just a single leg blew the doors off of every other exploratory well in Ohio. So… great question. But generally I would say the numbers being touted by the media are… high~ish. Historically it’s been between 30-40% recoverable depending on the field. So 303 billion barrels, would be around 121B. But, if they take the 1.4T number…. That would be 484B. And I’m being kind at 40% with a heavy sour crude. Wait until you all see Trump negotiate an exclusive use for Guyana light crude as Diluent for the Venezuelan crude to make a medium sour... for sole use at Gulf Refineries... while also cutting off Europe/India/China from 900k BPD of light crude and simultaneously cutting off exports to V of Russian naptha for diluent. So many 2nd and 3rd order effects underway. 2026 is gonna be lit. Yeah there’s a ton of moving parts / nuances in all this. And a lot of “well, maybe…” But, at the end of the day. They need a friendly, stable government first. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
|
Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Yeah there’s a ton of moving parts / nuances in all this. And a lot of “well, maybe…” But, at the end of the day. They need a friendly, stable government first. Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By PointBlank82: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By theskuh: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: High. Like guaranteed, high. If they can get their shit together. They have the second largest refinery in the world. And it hasn't even recently been updated. Last time it was updated it had the ability to process 955,000bpd ~ish. They also have other refineries. They currently produce ~230,000bpd. So there's about 2-2.5m bpd capacity sitting offline depending on who you ask. Maybe more after updates, debottlenecking, technology upgrades, export updates, etc etc etc. I mean they probably have the ability to turn on even more than that, depending on who you ask. General consensus I've always seen is they're running between 7-10% capacity vs *2012* production numbers. Which, could have been low as well. Especially when factoring in upgrades and updates. What about their reserves? worth as much as they are saying? Proven vs Recoverable are very, very different numbers. What is actually Recoverable, is an enormous question. They have absolutely enormous proven reserves. But I don’t think I’ve ever seen an accurate recoverable estimate. Or even a ballpark accurate estimate. Like, I’ve heard a number that in the field they’re in, the Orinoco Belt, has up to 1.4T barrels of oil, in theory. But could be as low as 303 billion barrels of oil. But to be recoverable, you have to take economics into consideration. How much does it cost to produce the barrel of oil? Is it technically possible to recover it? Can it be refined / is actually useful? Like a lot of questions there that I can’t answer. I’m not a petroleum engineer in Venezuela, nor can I predict the future of oil economics. As the more we look, the more we find. There was just a test well drilled literally across the street from me. I could see the rig from my house. It was .63 miles from my front door by air. And just a single leg blew the doors off of every other exploratory well in Ohio. So… great question. But generally I would say the numbers being touted by the media are… high~ish. Historically it’s been between 30-40% recoverable depending on the field. So 303 billion barrels, would be around 121B. But, if they take the 1.4T number…. That would be 484B. And I’m being kind at 40% with a heavy sour crude. Wait until you all see Trump negotiate an exclusive use for Guyana light crude as Diluent for the Venezuelan crude to make a medium sour... for sole use at Gulf Refineries... while also cutting off Europe/India/China from 900k BPD of light crude and simultaneously cutting off exports to V of Russian naptha for diluent. So many 2nd and 3rd order effects underway. 2026 is gonna be lit. Yeah there’s a ton of moving parts / nuances in all this. And a lot of “well, maybe…” But, at the end of the day. They need a friendly, stable government first. Well I for one expect Onshore to tank, especially the high lift basins. If another 1-2 million BPD can be brought online, we might see $50 crude, which will be used to beat the shit out of the russian economy. In a year or two with lower rig count, we'll see natural gas prices climb, especially with all the power gen coming online for datacenters. Lots of interesting stuff coming up this year! |
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Originally Posted By PointBlank82: Well I for one expect Onshore to tank, especially the high lift basins. If another 1-2 million BPD can be brought online, we might see $50 crude, which will be used to beat the shit out of the russian economy. In a year or two with lower rig count, we'll see natural gas prices climb, especially with all the power gen coming online for datacenters. Lots of interesting stuff coming up this year! Originally Posted By PointBlank82: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By PointBlank82: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By theskuh: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: High. Like guaranteed, high. If they can get their shit together. They have the second largest refinery in the world. And it hasn't even recently been updated. Last time it was updated it had the ability to process 955,000bpd ~ish. They also have other refineries. They currently produce ~230,000bpd. So there's about 2-2.5m bpd capacity sitting offline depending on who you ask. Maybe more after updates, debottlenecking, technology upgrades, export updates, etc etc etc. I mean they probably have the ability to turn on even more than that, depending on who you ask. General consensus I've always seen is they're running between 7-10% capacity vs *2012* production numbers. Which, could have been low as well. Especially when factoring in upgrades and updates. What about their reserves? worth as much as they are saying? Proven vs Recoverable are very, very different numbers. What is actually Recoverable, is an enormous question. They have absolutely enormous proven reserves. But I don’t think I’ve ever seen an accurate recoverable estimate. Or even a ballpark accurate estimate. Like, I’ve heard a number that in the field they’re in, the Orinoco Belt, has up to 1.4T barrels of oil, in theory. But could be as low as 303 billion barrels of oil. But to be recoverable, you have to take economics into consideration. How much does it cost to produce the barrel of oil? Is it technically possible to recover it? Can it be refined / is actually useful? Like a lot of questions there that I can’t answer. I’m not a petroleum engineer in Venezuela, nor can I predict the future of oil economics. As the more we look, the more we find. There was just a test well drilled literally across the street from me. I could see the rig from my house. It was .63 miles from my front door by air. And just a single leg blew the doors off of every other exploratory well in Ohio. So… great question. But generally I would say the numbers being touted by the media are… high~ish. Historically it’s been between 30-40% recoverable depending on the field. So 303 billion barrels, would be around 121B. But, if they take the 1.4T number…. That would be 484B. And I’m being kind at 40% with a heavy sour crude. Wait until you all see Trump negotiate an exclusive use for Guyana light crude as Diluent for the Venezuelan crude to make a medium sour... for sole use at Gulf Refineries... while also cutting off Europe/India/China from 900k BPD of light crude and simultaneously cutting off exports to V of Russian naptha for diluent. So many 2nd and 3rd order effects underway. 2026 is gonna be lit. Yeah there’s a ton of moving parts / nuances in all this. And a lot of “well, maybe…” But, at the end of the day. They need a friendly, stable government first. Well I for one expect Onshore to tank, especially the high lift basins. If another 1-2 million BPD can be brought online, we might see $50 crude, which will be used to beat the shit out of the russian economy. In a year or two with lower rig count, we'll see natural gas prices climb, especially with all the power gen coming online for datacenters. Lots of interesting stuff coming up this year! Gas is the key driver up in my neck of the woods. A well up here has to have the trifecta. Crude, Condensate and Gas. Otherwise it’s not drilled. Gas I think will generally keep the U.S. O&G industry going. But crude fields will certainly suffer hard. But I’m with you. I see sub $50 / bbl prices. Which means the Saudis are probably going to cut. I mentioned the opec aspect with Venezuela earlier. If they bail from OPEC… that opens a huge can of worms geopolitically. If they can actually tap their fields successfully. It’s going to be not only a new chapter in O&G history. But an entire new book. The Quest, The Prize, The New Map… Well, the new map ran till the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (And even mentioned it was going to happen.) So now we need another book to predict the future and tell the nuanced history. Daniel Yergin better get busy. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
|
Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Gas is the key driver up in my neck of the woods. A well up here has to have the trifecta. Crude, Condensate and Gas. Otherwise it’s not drilled. Gas I think will generally keep the U.S. O&G industry going. But crude fields will certainly suffer hard. But I’m with you. I see sub $50 / bbl prices. Which means the Saudis are probably going to cut. I mentioned the opec aspect with Venezuela earlier. If they bail from OPEC… that opens a huge can of worms geopolitically. If they can actually tap their fields successfully. It’s going to be not only a new chapter in O&G history. But an entire new book. The Quest, The Prize, The New Map… Well, the new map ran till the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (And even mentioned it was going to happen.) So now we need another book to predict the future and tell the nuanced history. Daniel Yergin better get busy. Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By PointBlank82: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By PointBlank82: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By theskuh: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: High. Like guaranteed, high. If they can get their shit together. They have the second largest refinery in the world. And it hasn't even recently been updated. Last time it was updated it had the ability to process 955,000bpd ~ish. They also have other refineries. They currently produce ~230,000bpd. So there's about 2-2.5m bpd capacity sitting offline depending on who you ask. Maybe more after updates, debottlenecking, technology upgrades, export updates, etc etc etc. I mean they probably have the ability to turn on even more than that, depending on who you ask. General consensus I've always seen is they're running between 7-10% capacity vs *2012* production numbers. Which, could have been low as well. Especially when factoring in upgrades and updates. What about their reserves? worth as much as they are saying? Proven vs Recoverable are very, very different numbers. What is actually Recoverable, is an enormous question. They have absolutely enormous proven reserves. But I don’t think I’ve ever seen an accurate recoverable estimate. Or even a ballpark accurate estimate. Like, I’ve heard a number that in the field they’re in, the Orinoco Belt, has up to 1.4T barrels of oil, in theory. But could be as low as 303 billion barrels of oil. But to be recoverable, you have to take economics into consideration. How much does it cost to produce the barrel of oil? Is it technically possible to recover it? Can it be refined / is actually useful? Like a lot of questions there that I can’t answer. I’m not a petroleum engineer in Venezuela, nor can I predict the future of oil economics. As the more we look, the more we find. There was just a test well drilled literally across the street from me. I could see the rig from my house. It was .63 miles from my front door by air. And just a single leg blew the doors off of every other exploratory well in Ohio. So… great question. But generally I would say the numbers being touted by the media are… high~ish. Historically it’s been between 30-40% recoverable depending on the field. So 303 billion barrels, would be around 121B. But, if they take the 1.4T number…. That would be 484B. And I’m being kind at 40% with a heavy sour crude. Wait until you all see Trump negotiate an exclusive use for Guyana light crude as Diluent for the Venezuelan crude to make a medium sour... for sole use at Gulf Refineries... while also cutting off Europe/India/China from 900k BPD of light crude and simultaneously cutting off exports to V of Russian naptha for diluent. So many 2nd and 3rd order effects underway. 2026 is gonna be lit. Yeah there’s a ton of moving parts / nuances in all this. And a lot of “well, maybe…” But, at the end of the day. They need a friendly, stable government first. Well I for one expect Onshore to tank, especially the high lift basins. If another 1-2 million BPD can be brought online, we might see $50 crude, which will be used to beat the shit out of the russian economy. In a year or two with lower rig count, we'll see natural gas prices climb, especially with all the power gen coming online for datacenters. Lots of interesting stuff coming up this year! Gas is the key driver up in my neck of the woods. A well up here has to have the trifecta. Crude, Condensate and Gas. Otherwise it’s not drilled. Gas I think will generally keep the U.S. O&G industry going. But crude fields will certainly suffer hard. But I’m with you. I see sub $50 / bbl prices. Which means the Saudis are probably going to cut. I mentioned the opec aspect with Venezuela earlier. If they bail from OPEC… that opens a huge can of worms geopolitically. If they can actually tap their fields successfully. It’s going to be not only a new chapter in O&G history. But an entire new book. The Quest, The Prize, The New Map… Well, the new map ran till the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (And even mentioned it was going to happen.) So now we need another book to predict the future and tell the nuanced history. Daniel Yergin better get busy. I think they're going to increase production regardless of cost. This isn't just about money, this is a power move by the Trump admin. With this decapitation/annexation he picked up producible assets, but also the means to back the petro dollar (at least the perception of it being backed) which doesn't involve OPEC (no way the replacement Venezuelan government is allowed to stay in OPEC). That means there better damned well be a positive response to all the political capital he just burned. Sub $50 crude means we stay at $2-3 gasoline thru the midterms too. Maybe even less than that in lower tax regions. At least until the local governments jack up tax rates again to take advantage of the situation. Frankly, I'm glad I've diversified my business away from O&G. I think a lot of Bakkan, DJ and PRB stuff is going to be sidelined soon. Fun GOT reference to the Lanisters pillaging the High Garden, lol: https://x.com/AnalyticaCamil1/status/2007359722924773461 |
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Originally Posted By PointBlank82: I think they're going to increase production regardless of cost. This isn't just about money, this is a power move by the Trump admin. With this decapitation/annexation he picked up producible assets, but also the means to back the petro dollar (at least the perception of it being backed) which doesn't involve OPEC (no way the replacement Venezuelan government is allowed to stay in OPEC). That means there better damned well be a positive response to all the political capital he just burned. Sub $50 crude means we stay at $2-3 gasoline thru the midterms too. Maybe even less than that in lower tax regions. At least until the local governments jack up tax rates again to take advantage of the situation. Frankly, I'm glad I've diversified my business away from O&G. I think a lot of Bakkan, DJ and PRB stuff is going to be sidelined soon. Originally Posted By PointBlank82: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By PointBlank82: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By PointBlank82: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By theskuh: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: High. Like guaranteed, high. If they can get their shit together. They have the second largest refinery in the world. And it hasn't even recently been updated. Last time it was updated it had the ability to process 955,000bpd ~ish. They also have other refineries. They currently produce ~230,000bpd. So there's about 2-2.5m bpd capacity sitting offline depending on who you ask. Maybe more after updates, debottlenecking, technology upgrades, export updates, etc etc etc. I mean they probably have the ability to turn on even more than that, depending on who you ask. General consensus I've always seen is they're running between 7-10% capacity vs *2012* production numbers. Which, could have been low as well. Especially when factoring in upgrades and updates. What about their reserves? worth as much as they are saying? Proven vs Recoverable are very, very different numbers. What is actually Recoverable, is an enormous question. They have absolutely enormous proven reserves. But I don’t think I’ve ever seen an accurate recoverable estimate. Or even a ballpark accurate estimate. Like, I’ve heard a number that in the field they’re in, the Orinoco Belt, has up to 1.4T barrels of oil, in theory. But could be as low as 303 billion barrels of oil. But to be recoverable, you have to take economics into consideration. How much does it cost to produce the barrel of oil? Is it technically possible to recover it? Can it be refined / is actually useful? Like a lot of questions there that I can’t answer. I’m not a petroleum engineer in Venezuela, nor can I predict the future of oil economics. As the more we look, the more we find. There was just a test well drilled literally across the street from me. I could see the rig from my house. It was .63 miles from my front door by air. And just a single leg blew the doors off of every other exploratory well in Ohio. So… great question. But generally I would say the numbers being touted by the media are… high~ish. Historically it’s been between 30-40% recoverable depending on the field. So 303 billion barrels, would be around 121B. But, if they take the 1.4T number…. That would be 484B. And I’m being kind at 40% with a heavy sour crude. Wait until you all see Trump negotiate an exclusive use for Guyana light crude as Diluent for the Venezuelan crude to make a medium sour... for sole use at Gulf Refineries... while also cutting off Europe/India/China from 900k BPD of light crude and simultaneously cutting off exports to V of Russian naptha for diluent. So many 2nd and 3rd order effects underway. 2026 is gonna be lit. Yeah there’s a ton of moving parts / nuances in all this. And a lot of “well, maybe…” But, at the end of the day. They need a friendly, stable government first. Well I for one expect Onshore to tank, especially the high lift basins. If another 1-2 million BPD can be brought online, we might see $50 crude, which will be used to beat the shit out of the russian economy. In a year or two with lower rig count, we'll see natural gas prices climb, especially with all the power gen coming online for datacenters. Lots of interesting stuff coming up this year! Gas is the key driver up in my neck of the woods. A well up here has to have the trifecta. Crude, Condensate and Gas. Otherwise it’s not drilled. Gas I think will generally keep the U.S. O&G industry going. But crude fields will certainly suffer hard. But I’m with you. I see sub $50 / bbl prices. Which means the Saudis are probably going to cut. I mentioned the opec aspect with Venezuela earlier. If they bail from OPEC… that opens a huge can of worms geopolitically. If they can actually tap their fields successfully. It’s going to be not only a new chapter in O&G history. But an entire new book. The Quest, The Prize, The New Map… Well, the new map ran till the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (And even mentioned it was going to happen.) So now we need another book to predict the future and tell the nuanced history. Daniel Yergin better get busy. I think they're going to increase production regardless of cost. This isn't just about money, this is a power move by the Trump admin. With this decapitation/annexation he picked up producible assets, but also the means to back the petro dollar (at least the perception of it being backed) which doesn't involve OPEC (no way the replacement Venezuelan government is allowed to stay in OPEC). That means there better damned well be a positive response to all the political capital he just burned. Sub $50 crude means we stay at $2-3 gasoline thru the midterms too. Maybe even less than that in lower tax regions. At least until the local governments jack up tax rates again to take advantage of the situation. Frankly, I'm glad I've diversified my business away from O&G. I think a lot of Bakkan, DJ and PRB stuff is going to be sidelined soon. I agree with the increased production. But I think it’s going to take some time for them to hit the 2m bpd mark. But the cost depends all on what’s going to happen in the ME. Who’s going to cut, if they can afford to cut. But it’s going to be extremely inexpensive to operate in Venezuela for a while. If they get a friendly government. So that will be another factor when looking at production numbers. But we are still looking at 12-24 months out for them to get to 2m bpd or more. But that should be enough to get their refining capacity back up to a good level. That’s going to crimp Mexico particularly and others with importing refined product into the U.S. and around South / Central America. But yeah, I think the Texas stuff is going to take a hit. It’s a real interesting time. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
|
This guy makes a good point. Canada may lose out as the US uses Venezuela oil. https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTELx87ktk1/?igsh=MW1xc3R6cDRqYXJwag== |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: If I was picking an off the shelf oil, for your application. Out of those two choices, I would pick the ESP European Car formula 5w30. But, I run 5w30 in everything gasoline that I have. Would you run that same ESP Euro in a 5.0 Coyote F-150?  |
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Originally Posted By Metonymy: Would you run that same ESP Euro in a 5.0 Coyote F-150? [url]/images/smilies/icon_smile_big.gif] Originally Posted By Metonymy: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: If I was picking an off the shelf oil, for your application. Out of those two choices, I would pick the ESP European Car formula 5w30. But, I run 5w30 in everything gasoline that I have. Would you run that same ESP Euro in a 5.0 Coyote F-150? [url]/images/smilies/icon_smile_big.gif] Yes. I’m running Kendall Euro 5w30 in one of my Mustang 5.0s right now. Which is very equivalent to the Mobil product. I also put it in my father’s brand new 2026 7.3 F250 platinum. So yep. I’m not a Mobil distributor, thus I don’t use mobil products. But I would be a fucking retard if I sat here and tried to say they’re not one of the best easily accessible, off the shelf oils out there. Mobil and Pennzoil platinum / ultra platinum are probably the two non-boutique, commercially produced brands out there. |
Direction, not intention, determines destination.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
|
Awesome. This seems like an amazing price too ($28/ 5qt jug) https://www.walmart.com/ip/Mobil-1-ESP-European-Car-Formula-Full-Synthetic-Motor-Oil-5W-30-5-Quart/492328178 |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Yes. I’m running Kendall Euro 5w30 in one of my Mustang 5.0s right now. Which is very equivalent to the Mobil product. I also put it in my father’s brand new 2026 7.3 F250 platinum. So yep. I’m not a Mobil distributor, thus I don’t use mobil products. But I would be a fucking retard if I sat here and tried to say they’re not one of the best easily accessible, off the shelf oils out there. Mobil and Pennzoil platinum / ultra platinum are probably the two non-boutique, commercially produced brands out there. Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Originally Posted By Metonymy: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: If I was picking an off the shelf oil, for your application. Out of those two choices, I would pick the ESP European Car formula 5w30. But, I run 5w30 in everything gasoline that I have. Would you run that same ESP Euro in a 5.0 Coyote F-150? [url]/images/smilies/icon_smile_big.gif] Yes. I’m running Kendall Euro 5w30 in one of my Mustang 5.0s right now. Which is very equivalent to the Mobil product. I also put it in my father’s brand new 2026 7.3 F250 platinum. So yep. I’m not a Mobil distributor, thus I don’t use mobil products. But I would be a fucking retard if I sat here and tried to say they’re not one of the best easily accessible, off the shelf oils out there. Mobil and Pennzoil platinum / ultra platinum are probably the two non-boutique, commercially produced brands out there. |
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Originally Posted By FlashMan-7k: What has come of the weddel sea oil fields find? Has anyone drilled to see if they can tap into it? I saw it stated at possibly 511 billion barrels. If it turns out to be real and argentina or chile tap it that could be interesting. It’s a discovery that was discovered without ever drilling a well. I mean is there oil there? Sure. Is it financially viable to recover it? Probably not at this time. Nothing has happened to it. There’s even a lot of speculation over if it’s real, as they’ve never even drilled a well. It’s just theoretical. |
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So, since Woodford doesn't sell Kendall, What should I go for in a synthetic 5w30 (looking for 55 gallon drum) to cover all my gas engines? Attached File |
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Originally Posted By Atropian_Defector: So, since Woodford doesn't sell Kendall, What should I go for in a synthetic 5w30 (looking for 55 gallon drum) to cover all my gas engines? https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/523616/Screenshot_2026-01-05_112921_png-3688637.JPG They probably have Havoline in stock. I can text the president of lubricants and ask. He’s a friend of mine. |
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Originally Posted By PhuzzyGnu: Word on the street is a PM could get you a barrel of something LTL to you.  I mean… yeah. $80-120 for LTL anywhere in the U.S basically. My new pricing on Kendall PCEO products is extremely competitive. I spent most of last quarter getting new pricing done. (Yes, I do actually work… and not just shit post on arfcom.) |
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Curious on your thoughts of running Sheetz 88 Octane (15% Ethanol) in a modern, twin turbo engine. It's routinely 30 cents cheaper a gallon in Virginia than 87 E10. I get that it 88 (E15) has less BTUs and gets worse mileage than standard 87 (E10) but is it that much of an issue? Secondarily, should I use a PEA fuel injector cleaner more frequently? |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Gas is the key driver up in my neck of the woods. A well up here has to have the trifecta. Crude, Condensate and Gas. Otherwise it’s not drilled. Gas I think will generally keep the U.S. O&G industry going. But crude fields will certainly suffer hard. But I’m with you. I see sub $50 / bbl prices. Which means the Saudis are probably going to cut. I mentioned the opec aspect with Venezuela earlier. If they bail from OPEC… that opens a huge can of worms geopolitically. If they can actually tap their fields successfully. It’s going to be not only a new chapter in O&G history. But an entire new book. The Quest, The Prize, The New Map… Well, the new map ran till the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (And even mentioned it was going to happen.) So now we need another book to predict the future and tell the nuanced history. Daniel Yergin better get busy. @Foxtrot08 Would you mind elaborating on the bolded portion of your post, please? What do you mean by "an entire new book"? Price-wise? Technology-wise? Supply-wise? Economics-wise? Thanks! 
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Ever heard of API grades MM ML and MS? Also DG DM and DS for diesels? I have an application calling for an API MS 10W30. I think the ultimate answer is to use something CK-4 flavored in that grade like Rotella. Curious your thoughts. It's a 57 Chevy with an original (but overhauled) engine. Still has flat tappets. What about the new Mobil classic car formula? That one seems interesting as well. |
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Originally Posted By ImpulseTaco: Ever heard of API grades MM ML and MS? Also DG DM and DS for diesels? I have an application calling for an API MS 10W30. I think the ultimate answer is to use something CK-4 flavored in that grade like Rotella. Curious your thoughts. It's a 57 Chevy with an original (but overhauled) engine. Still has flat tappets. What about the new Mobil classic car formula? That one seems interesting as well. Yes I have! Working out. Will reply back in a bit. |
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Originally Posted By W202fan90: @Foxtrot08 Would you mind elaborating on the bolded portion of your post, please? What do you mean by "an entire new book"? Price-wise? Technology-wise? Supply-wise? Economics-wise? Thanks! Originally Posted By W202fan90: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Gas is the key driver up in my neck of the woods. A well up here has to have the trifecta. Crude, Condensate and Gas. Otherwise it’s not drilled. Gas I think will generally keep the U.S. O&G industry going. But crude fields will certainly suffer hard. But I’m with you. I see sub $50 / bbl prices. Which means the Saudis are probably going to cut. I mentioned the opec aspect with Venezuela earlier. If they bail from OPEC… that opens a huge can of worms geopolitically. If they can actually tap their fields successfully. It’s going to be not only a new chapter in O&G history. But an entire new book. The Quest, The Prize, The New Map… Well, the new map ran till the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (And even mentioned it was going to happen.) So now we need another book to predict the future and tell the nuanced history. Daniel Yergin better get busy. @Foxtrot08 Would you mind elaborating on the bolded portion of your post, please? What do you mean by "an entire new book"? Price-wise? Technology-wise? Supply-wise? Economics-wise? Thanks! So there’s 3 “main” books about the history of the oil industry and its economic impact, with slight projections forward. All by Daniel Yergin. The Prize, the Quest and The New Map. The new map essentially predicted Russias invasion of the Ukraine. However, that’s where the New Map stops. When I said a new book, I mean it literally like…. Daniel Yergin is going to need to write a new damn book. |
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Integrity is the essence of everything successful.
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Originally Posted By ImpulseTaco: Ever heard of API grades MM ML and MS? Also DG DM and DS for diesels? I have an application calling for an API MS 10W30. I think the ultimate answer is to use something CK-4 flavored in that grade like Rotella. Curious your thoughts. It's a 57 Chevy with an original (but overhauled) engine. Still has flat tappets. What about the new Mobil classic car formula? That one seems interesting as well. So MM, ML and MS, along with DG, DM and DS were quality rankings for oil. Think of like gasoline grades. So you have 87 / 91 / 93 octane ratings. With the 3 oil grades you has good / better / best, basically. That all went away in 1952 when we went to the modern specifications rating. So it all predates the S and C ratings. Essentially, yeah. Use anything you want. Anything will be better basically. I personally hate rotella. But it would be better than pre 1952 oil specs. But Mobil classic car oil. Or valvoline vr1. Tons of good choices. |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: So there’s 3 “main” books about the history of the oil industry and its economic impact, with slight projections forward. All by Daniel Yergin. The Prize, the Quest and The New Map. The new map essentially predicted Russias invasion of the Ukraine. However, that’s where the New Map stops. When I said a new book, I mean it literally like…. Daniel Yergin is going to need to write a new damn book. I liked The Prize movie series on DVD. They didn't predict how big the shale revolution would be. |
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Originally Posted By ImpulseTaco: Why the hate for Rotella? (You've probably said elsewhere and I missed it). I don't like Shell all that much as a company but their oil seems to work well in the old car and my bikes that need a JASO MA for the clutches. Junk oil, premium prices. It shears, it foams, and it generally falls apart. Foaming can be independently verified by anyone who rides a dirt bike. But also a third party lab has a video on YouTube of it failing foam tests. |
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Originally Posted By ImpulseTaco: I liked The Prize movie series on DVD. They didn't predict how big the shale revolution would be. Originally Posted By ImpulseTaco: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: So there’s 3 “main” books about the history of the oil industry and its economic impact, with slight projections forward. All by Daniel Yergin. The Prize, the Quest and The New Map. The new map essentially predicted Russias invasion of the Ukraine. However, that’s where the New Map stops. When I said a new book, I mean it literally like…. Daniel Yergin is going to need to write a new damn book. I liked The Prize movie series on DVD. They didn't predict how big the shale revolution would be. Yeah it’s really hard to predict the unknown. That being said. It’s why things are always moving. I mean, I read *every day* oil industry news. Even though I’m so far down stream none of this is actually going to affect my little super specialized, niche world of lubricants. But, part of my background is - I have a degree in international studies and another in history. And *another* in economics. I’m one of those overly educated idiots that has too many good ideas and terrible execution. So the oil industry is sorta my tism. Some people get trains. I got an entire damn industry. |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Junk oil, premium prices. It shears, it foams, and it generally falls apart. Foaming can be independently verified by anyone who rides a dirt bike. But also a third party lab has a video on YouTube of it failing foam tests. You know...I have seen it bubble in the little sight glass on the side of the crankcase now that you mention it. Bike is a Suzuki Marauder 800 - nothing special - but I was putting Suzuki oil in it until I read the label and saw it said it was made and sold by SOPUS (Shell Oil Products US) so I figured I was probably getting something pretty similar with Rotella. |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: So there’s 3 “main” books about the history of the oil industry and its economic impact, with slight projections forward. All by Daniel Yergin. The Prize, the Quest and The New Map. The new map essentially predicted Russias invasion of the Ukraine. However, that’s where the New Map stops. When I said a new book, I mean it literally like…. Daniel Yergin is going to need to write a new damn book. lol. Gotcha. Well, thanks for the explanation, anyways. |
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Originally Posted By ImpulseTaco: Since you mentioned trains....do you have any customers that need steam cylinder oil? Something like Valvata J 460 or 680. That's what you'd recommend for a real steam locomotive right? I sell a shitload of Citgo Cylinder oil 680. Fun fact. It’s still made with tallow. As it’s a compounded gear oil. We normally sell it into worm gear applications in super heavy industry. As we supply a lot of old steel mills, steel slitting applications, cold and hot roll, etc. Timkin, Vallourac, NLMK, Cleveland Cliffs (tier 3 supplier, but none the less), etc. We sponsor the historical construction equipment Association as well. And the hit and miss engine association in Ohio. They buy a little bit of it. But it’s a rarity anymore. We do sell a little 11 TBN LMAO Gen 7 rail road engine oil. ARG primarily, but I’ve bid citgo and P66. I’m imagining at this point in this thread, the majority of people who wanted to opsec me could. I’m pretty obvious who I am at this point, lol. |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: So MM, ML and MS, along with DG, DM and DS were quality rankings for oil. Think of like gasoline grades. So you have 87 / 91 / 93 octane ratings. With the 3 oil grades you has good / better / best, basically. That all went away in 1952 when we went to the modern specifications rating. So it all predates the S and C ratings. Essentially, yeah. Use anything you want. Anything will be better basically. I personally hate rotella. But it would be better than pre 1952 oil specs. But Mobil classic car oil. Or valvoline vr1. Tons of good choices. I'm amazed at the number of people running Rotella in their high strung modern 4 stroke dirtbikes. $10 to $12k bike, $2- $3000 suspension upgrades, Ti exhausts, $1500 in riding gear and then Rotella oil. I guess they think since it carries a JASO rating it's fine in a 10,000 RPM motor with 1200 CC to lube the gearbox and top end. Rekluse clutch company used to recommend Rotella, not sure which one, then supposedly the formulation changed and they don't recommend it anymore. |
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Originally Posted By smarquez: I'm amazed at the number of people running Rotella in their high strung modern 4 stroke dirtbikes. $10 to $12k bike, $2- $3000 suspension upgrades, Ti exhausts, $1500 in riding gear and then Rotella oil. I guess they think since it carries a JASO rating it's fine in a 10,000 RPM motor with 1200 CC to lube the gearbox and top end. Rekluse clutch company used to recommend Rotella, not sure which one, then supposedly the formulation changed and they don't recommend it anymore. Originally Posted By smarquez: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: So MM, ML and MS, along with DG, DM and DS were quality rankings for oil. Think of like gasoline grades. So you have 87 / 91 / 93 octane ratings. With the 3 oil grades you has good / better / best, basically. That all went away in 1952 when we went to the modern specifications rating. So it all predates the S and C ratings. Essentially, yeah. Use anything you want. Anything will be better basically. I personally hate rotella. But it would be better than pre 1952 oil specs. But Mobil classic car oil. Or valvoline vr1. Tons of good choices. I'm amazed at the number of people running Rotella in their high strung modern 4 stroke dirtbikes. $10 to $12k bike, $2- $3000 suspension upgrades, Ti exhausts, $1500 in riding gear and then Rotella oil. I guess they think since it carries a JASO rating it's fine in a 10,000 RPM motor with 1200 CC to lube the gearbox and top end. Rekluse clutch company used to recommend Rotella, not sure which one, then supposedly the formulation changed and they don't recommend it anymore. We were a Shell distributor until 2009-2010 era. The formulation changed in 2005-06 era for significantly worse. They’ve been coasting on their name sake and shelf space for years. My working theory is the fact it’s JASO MA/Ma2 has an inherit additive incompatibility with the diesel additive package. Thus the foaming and shearing. JASO MA / MA2 is designed off of gasoline engine oil specs so SP, SO, SN, etc. It’s not designed off of a C formula for diesel engines. This is from the JASO handbook. So diesel engines, since they don’t see the high RPMs, don’t utilize the same anti foaming agents that gasoline engines do. Thus, leads to foaming. Foaming leads to shearing. Note, I have no proof of this. It’s just my working theory since I know it foams and shears. |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: I sell a shitload of Citgo Cylinder oil 680. Fun fact. It’s still made with tallow. As it’s a compounded gear oil. We normally sell it into worm gear applications in super heavy industry. As we supply a lot of old steel mills, steel slitting applications, cold and hot roll, etc. Timkin, Vallourac, NLMK, Cleveland Cliffs (tier 3 supplier, but none the less), etc. We sponsor the historical construction equipment Association as well. And the hit and miss engine association in Ohio. They buy a little bit of it. But it’s a rarity anymore. We do sell a little 11 TBN LMAO Gen 7 rail road engine oil. ARG primarily, but I’ve bid citgo and P66. I’m imagining at this point in this thread, the majority of people who wanted to opsec me could. I’m pretty obvious who I am at this point, lol. Yeah we know who you are. You are Sisyphus. Eternally debunking drunken boomer uncle oil lore myths. |
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Originally Posted By Bogdan: Yeah we know who you are. You are Sisyphus. Eternally debunking drunken boomer uncle oil lore myths. Originally Posted By Bogdan: Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: I sell a shitload of Citgo Cylinder oil 680. Fun fact. It’s still made with tallow. As it’s a compounded gear oil. We normally sell it into worm gear applications in super heavy industry. As we supply a lot of old steel mills, steel slitting applications, cold and hot roll, etc. Timkin, Vallourac, NLMK, Cleveland Cliffs (tier 3 supplier, but none the less), etc. We sponsor the historical construction equipment Association as well. And the hit and miss engine association in Ohio. They buy a little bit of it. But it’s a rarity anymore. We do sell a little 11 TBN LMAO Gen 7 rail road engine oil. ARG primarily, but I’ve bid citgo and P66. I’m imagining at this point in this thread, the majority of people who wanted to opsec me could. I’m pretty obvious who I am at this point, lol. Yeah we know who you are. You are Sisyphus. Eternally debunking drunken boomer uncle oil lore myths. Fortunately for me. As of 01/01/2026 I received my last promotion. I work for my sister now And, will until either I hang it up. Or she hangs it up. And I know she’s not going to run this company without me. We’ve already had that conversation. So my arfcom shit postings are fine. When I stop replying to oil threads on arfcom. You know I either 1. Got banned. Or 2. Decided to leave the industry. |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: I'm imagining at this point in this thread, the majority of people who wanted to opsec me could. I'm pretty obvious who I am at this point, lol.  In my case I responded with my own real world unique email to show a little good faith for taking the time to have a brief exchange on a simple question from someone you don't know, never met & likely never will meet. You're a good dude Foxtrot08. |
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If changing oil viscosity from manufacturer’s recommendation, would the filter need to change to something else as well? Was changing the oil on my newer chevy, grabbed a couple filters from the workshop and noticed I was holding two identical filters with different model numbers. Fram 10060 (older chevy truck) and 12060 (newer chevy car). Apparently GM changed the filter specs when thinner oils were put into play. I’ve done a few hours of research on this and the correlation is between the bypass valve on the filter and the oil viscosity. The 12060 bypass valve is ~22psi (0w-20) and 10060 is ~12psi (5w-30). Fram statement |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: ...I’m imagining at this point in this thread, the majority of people who wanted to opsec me could. I’m pretty obvious who I am at this point, lol. Yes, we know who you are. You are... OIL MAN! Attached File |
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Originally Posted By mursalot: If changing oil viscosity from manufacturer’s recommendation, would the filter need to change to something else as well? Was changing the oil on my newer chevy, grabbed a couple filters from the workshop and noticed I was holding two identical filters with different model numbers. Fram 10060 (older chevy truck) and 12060 (newer chevy car). Apparently GM changed the filter specs when thinner oils were put into play. I’ve done a few hours of research on this and the correlation is between the bypass valve on the filter and the oil viscosity. The 12060 bypass valve is ~22psi (0w-20) and 10060 is ~12psi (5w-30). Fram statement Sounds to me more like an engineering over sight on the filter, more than a viscosity change. At the end of the day, the viscosity differences between 5w30 to a 0w20 in the eyes of the pump, are very minimal and really, temperature driven. Sorta napkin maff, the oil will basically cycle through around 3x? More with the new filter design. Which I think is the more important part. I’m guessing at such a low pop off number, they weren’t getting the flows through the oil filter they wanted. Regardless of the viscosity. |
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Originally Posted By Foxtrot08: Junk oil, premium prices. It shears, it foams, and it generally falls apart. Foaming can be independently verified by anyone who rides a dirt bike. But also a third party lab has a video on YouTube of it failing foam tests. Well crap. I was going to buy an assload of Rotella T6 for my old 2000 f350 7.3 piggy. Anyone know a page in this thread where other good choices are talked about and why? |
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Originally Posted By FlashMan-7k: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Oil-Production-and-Reserves-by-Country_Site-2.webp There’s an enormous difference between proven reserves and recoverable, as I said. Venezuela, Greenland, Antarctica, etc. can have shit loads of oil. And probably do, theoretically. But unless it’s economically, politically and physically feasible. Then it just doesn’t matter. Greenland does have reserves too. But at current technology, it doesn’t appear to be viable to tap until oil hits closer to $200 / bbl. Venezuelan crude probably makes economical sense. I’m guessing it would be break even around $25-30/bbl. But, politically right now, it’s not possible. Tapping Antarctica, realistically isn’t feasible right now. Technology wise, I don’t think we could do it. And if we could, it would be ungodly expensive. Which is why the U.S. and the M.E. Are powerhouses. Whether you like it or not, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, etc. are economically stable enough to produce oil. We are highly economically stable. So we can produce a ton of oil and gas. We are just more expensive at production than third world countries. But you trade off costs. Sure it’s more expensive to poke a hole here. But, your shit ain’t gonna get stolen. You don’t have retards shooting at you. And you have a pipeline to put it in, generally. So it’s a trade off. |
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Here, foxtrot. A roughneck tale, for late at night with the lights off.  "The Thing on the Fourble Board" [remastered] One of Radio's Greatest Horror Stories! |
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@Foxtrot08 What do you think about Mobil 1’s hybrid specific oil? Supposedly the formulation addresses the issue of hybrid engines not getting hot enough to burn off moisture that can build up in the engine due to lower operating temps.  It Turns Out, Hybrids Are Really Hard On Engines |
Change is the only constant. - Heractilus
| Just had a shop do a cam swap and dod delete on my 2017 L83 5.3L. I only ran Mobil 1 0W-20 through it stock. They put Lucas hot rod and classic conventional in it and said change after 1k miles. Said use 5W-30 here on out. IDK. Another guy said use 15W-30 for another 1k miles with Lucas oil treatment replacing a quart for another 1k miles then go to 5W-30. Seems dumb. Why not go straight back to regular oil changes after 1k miles? Just a stage 1 cam and headers. |
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Originally Posted By urbankaos04: @Foxtrot08 What do you think about Mobil 1’s hybrid specific oil? Supposedly the formulation addresses the issue of hybrid engines not getting hot enough to burn off moisture that can build up in the engine due to lower operating temps.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eC5FFoCq4sFrom the video, that seems less like a hybrid problem, and more like a "they were stupid enough to make the engine start-stop in driving conditions" problem. |
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Originally Posted By FlashMan-7k: From the video, that seems less like a hybrid problem, and more like a "they were stupid enough to make the engine start-stop in driving conditions" problem. Quick tangent. All electric car with an ICE generator should have been the real "hybrid" from the get go. |