Quoted: So, what is the likelihood that this thing will suffer catastrophic failure and kill it's operator?
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I'm jumping the gun before someone knows better posts, so I may end up looking like a fool.
I don't believe anyone can give you an accurate statement of likelihood of failure. A handful of anectdote stories do not make real statistics.
Some people don't believe in statistics but I do, and it is possible to determine failure stats with analysis of a large number of units. Its done with alot of things, which is why in the military you conviniently are told how long spare parts are supposed to last before needing changing.
That of course wont happen to the Hesse Suici.. i mean 50BMG, so I think your best bet is to find an materials engineer friend and see if he can analyse it for problems.