Have you guys noticed how many incredible collector grade M16s are on the market right now?

I did an inquiry with a couple of big dealers and apparently a collector* has been sitting on a big pile of NIB M16s for a few decades and has been recently flooding the market with them.

Go to gunbroker and take a look, it's an M16-a-palooza

Pretty amazing sometimes how these big stashes of collector guns come up for sale when a collector dies or decides to dump his collection.



* - Note

Nope, it's not me

and

nope, I'm not selling any M16s.

like this one

http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=507803299

when have you ever seen a dozen rare guns like this for sale all at the same time?

I noticed the same thing. I've seen some other exotic M16 variants. I was also shown a picture of a very early M16 for some ridiculous amount of money (I forget which variant, but in the end, to me it was still an M16).


There's also the port firing weapon currently on GB.




I was also offered a Stoner gun about a month ago.




There does seem to be a lot of M16s on the market, and probably as a consequence of the supply, I've also noticed that the price of M16s has dropped a bit lately.  About a year ago, Ruben was moving NIB M16A2 for $39,000. I had a friend buy a NIB and still bagged M16A2 for $29,900. He cut open the bag and turned the A2 into a carbine and plans on shooting it.




 

I like that H&R A1 that guy has listed!

Wish I had the cash for one.

When it comes to buying MGs there is not better time to buy than right now...unless you have a time machine, then pre-86 would be the best time to buy.

I am buying everyone I see.

Yeah, I need DIAS!

Looks like you may be out another $32k!

I do not believe a word in that ad.

Pass.

Ha, yeah, agreed.  Looks to be ran quite a bit for being "test" fired.

Yep, quite a few.

Set screw is non-standard too. And front pin looks replaced, as well as the trip,  though photo is not good enough to be sure.

This is going to be just like the FNC sear situation back 3 or 4 years ago.

FNC sears were selling brand new for $2750 in 2011 because somebody put about 150 of them out on the market.

Everyone said that there was an endless supply of FNC sears, more sears than host guns, etc

Now they dried up and you cannot find one for sale and the price of full auto FNC guns is climbing into the clone m16 territory.


This big clot of A2s and NIB collector M16s is going evaporate away and then these pristine guns will be worth $40k and we'll all be kicking ourselves for not buying.

I would take bets on this happening, I've seen it happen with too many other types of guns and gun parts before.

I too am buying every DIAS that I see. I have a pair of steel RDIASes, and they are extremely fun toys. I just love 'em!

Speaking of which, I just scored a pair of unfired DLO registered boxes. I had a hypothetical posed to me that if I had someone trade me a RDIAS for a DLO box, if I would do it. Answer: no. Would you make the trade?


What if you had a RDIAS, would you trade for a NIB M16A2? I'd say hell no, that's not even a close decision.


Talk about sky rocking prices...there is a dealer on subguns asking $35,000 for a registered trigger box. Yikes! The average gun enthusiast is being priced out of MG ownership.

Being?

More like long been.

The MG market fascinates me.


I wouldn't buy any kind of sear or any sort of "shooter" type MG for over $30k right now

Go over $30k, you're into hardcore high end collector gun territory.

The people funding the over-30K market aren't shooters, they're diehard collectors with a lot of money.

That's a different breed of gun buyer.


Most M16s are not considered collectable, I've seen them sell for a high price even after the original parts were swapped off and tacticool parts put on.

But these mint A2s on the market right now represent the top of the pyramid of gun collecting in the classic sense, these are guns that richy rich guys will covet in the future.

That's the thought that struck me when I first saw them, that they are bona-fide high end collectables, the hemi convertables of M16s.


When I look at the MG market, I think there are certain undervalued guns relative to the rest of the market.

I think these mint collector M16s are grossly undervalued and I think WWII Thompsons are undervalued.  I think FNCs are also undervalued.

I think MACs have plenty of room to go up over 10K and I think they will if another democrat gets elected as president

We shall see what we shall see.

I do not mind paying 2017 prices for a gun I will sell at immense profit in 2025.

I cannot tell you how many times I paid over-market price on something, only to sell it for 2/3/4x a few years later. The fact I "overpaid" $3000 5 years ago does not matter. I am not a collector, and EVERY MG I sold I made a profit that also covered all the ammo I shot through it. As I and TONY_K have stated, it is like being paid to shoot a MG.

Honestly, I am glad so many folks sit on the sidelines and do not buy. But they will run out and get a $60K Ford Raptor, which will lose 75% value in 5 years, while complaining MG prices are too high. Whatever.

I never bought a gun in my life with the idea of making money off it.

Just churned my collection a little from time to time, sold a Luger to buy a Garand, that kind of thing.

The guys who made a lot of profit in gun collecting are the "true believers", the guys who were passionately collecting a gun that everyone else was ignoring.  Then one day the prices took off.


I think that the MG market is going to split into two groups, the shooter market and the collector market.

That already exists with non-NFA guns, a mint fancy version of a gun will sell for 10x what a common one does.

A high end dealer told me that people will fly to the big auctions and spend several million dollars sometimes.

Guys like that don't buy stuff like Lightning Links, they buy mint 21 Thompsons and guns that Teddy Roosevelt owned.

Collectors don't care about shooting, they care about collecting, they want exotic and noteworthy guns.

Agreed. The rare collector grade guns are treated like find works of art. But unlike art they can never be reproduced and each comes with their own serial number.

With that being said all MGs will continue to increase in value. If i had the cash I would pick up a few extra extra but that would be hard to convince the wife. And even the best of MGs dont compare to a 401K if you have a company match, It like getting a instant 50% ROI.

You can not afford me.  I promise.

I need to sell one of mine.  $50k, and it's yours.

Agreed on the Ford Raptor!

That's why I still drive my 07 Chevy Colorado with 130k on it and just picked up a Sendra last year.

I've only sold one MG, a M11/9 and regret doing so.  But I agree with you.  The old adage I've heard repeated since I started following transferable MGs around 1996 was "you never pay to much, you just pay that amount too soon".  And it has been true since I started following the market.  While it hurts to pay the high prices, if it is something I want and can afford it, I wouldn't mind paying the price for the item I want.

wish it would trickle down more into the Colt A1s and RRs.   Back when M16A1s were $15k, A2s were $25k easy.   Now A2s are $28k and the A1s are still $23k.   I have seen a couple 614s at around $20k though...

A2 is probably the best deal for an M16 right now, but between that and a decent RR, $16k may be a lot of money, but damn $28k is real money.

I think the most undervalued MG are AKs.   Its an iconic design and there are far fewer of them compared to M16s.

The cool thing about the M16s and RDIAS is that you can just slap the lower on a new upper. Voila...basically a new legal machine gun with all the modern designs and AR trends.

The RDIAS has even more options. New upper and new lower!


When I see a semi auto AR, I just see sadness.

Well my point was that there is a large supply of A2s on the market right now

which is holding the price down

but when they're all bought up and go into collections, the price is going to rise and everyone will be kicking themselves.

most guys don't realize that collectors sit on high end guns for decades

so it's not like there is going be this flood of guns around forever

AK's lack of modularity ='s lower value, regardless of relative rarity.

very good point

I have my eyes balls on what is to me the Holy Grail of M-16's.
Priced stupid cheap for what it is.
I currently have WAY to much money wrapped up in class 3 stuff and would just die if Obama or Shillary pulls some kind of executive order banning them.


When collectors dump huge collections it means one of two things to me;
1 ; they are getting ready to pass on to the big shooting gallery in the sky
Or
2 : They see something coming I don't.

Just prior to 2008 a car collector I know dumped all of his multi million dollar collection. Lucky ? I dont think so.

Another financial collapse I can live with but a ban would kick my teeth in.

So what has changed?

Has there been a single day since 1950 that liberals didn't want to ban all guns?


In order to get the Brady Bill to pass, the democrats had to nuke themselves politically, they lost control of the senate over it.

If they had to slit their throat and bleed out just to get post-ban featured ARs, just imagine what kind of political push it would take to ban all ARs.

Plus they used up all their clout on the brady bill.  The whole thing was a flop politically.


When they did the Brady Bill, did they even mention MGs or suppressors?


Sell off some of your MGs if you feel nervous but I think you'll still be shooting them all in 20 years.

These guns are rich man's toys nowadays, they are being priced to the point of political irrelevancy.

You might see an increase in restrictions, like maybe fingerprints to accompany trusts.

But I think the libtards would be unwilling to spend any political coin to ban a $45,000 Thompson sitting in a rich guy's gun safe like the crown jewels.


I have no doubt that Her Royal Highness would love to ban every gun in the USA but that's not something a president can just sign into law.

Anyway, mark my words -

This little tidal wave of collector M16s is going to disappear into collections and then everyone will be kicking themselves for not buying them at these prices.

I remember one time there was a dealer in Florida who was selling FNC sears for $2700.

Everyone chitter chattered about it on the net but nobody jumped to buy them.

Everyone said there was an inexhaustible supply of sears, more sears than hosts.

Try to find one for sale now.

When a dealer has 10 or 20 sears, there is a big supply on the market.

When 10 or 20 collectors buy the sears, they go into gun safes and then one comes up for sale every 3 years.

 
Collections can also be dumped for other reasons like divorce and personal financial difficulties.

I was informed by two dealers that the owner of most of these guns is in poor health and cashing out his collection for that reason.

Thats only true if you have unlimited funds....I passed on plenty of MG 'deals' not because they were not 'deals' but if I bought every time something cool poped up, I would be in the poor house.

I remember the FNC $2700 sears, I almost bought one.  I ended up paying $4500 3 years ago.  Still happy, as I had $4500 3 years ago, but not $2700 extra 7 years ago.

Medical expenses requiring loads of cash are probably the biggest reason for a collector to dump their collection, short of a collection's dissolution upon death of the collector.

Biggest non-medical/death reason for dissolution is a divorce where the non-collector spouse's attorney is aware of the value of the collection, and demands half the value - usually requiring the collection to be at least partially liquidated to raise the necessary funds. A collector with a $200k MG collection probably doesn't have an extra $100k on hand to keep the collection intact through the divorce, alongside the partition of other assets.

This is a good discussion to have, so I thought I'd throw out my $0.02.

As for "non-ban" (& similar) reasons to liquidate-- all the ones given are valid:
Getting older--I wouldn't want my wife to be stuck trying to value my MG's; and, it's a fairly common
dealer trick (any hobby, not just guns) to try and swindle an aggrieved spouse...  
Divorce-- absolutely, especially if the couple is up to their eyeballs in consumer debt
and transferrables are possibly the only significant tangible asset they have.

In addition, interests change; for example, a few transferrables might go a long way to
ownership/part-ownership in an airplane; or, a down payment on a condo.  One well-known
local Class III told me he sold off *some* of his MG's to fund the purchase of a building... etc.

- - - - - -

The political reasons (to liquidate) are always going to be more speculative.  At present, an
outright ban might be tricky, but why couldn't they "update" the NFA?  E.g., changing the
transfer tax to, say, $10K (or more) would seem to pass constitutional muster from the
start, and IMO would really hurt the resale value of the low & mid-tier MG's.

As for "it doesn't make sense" to go after MG's, I agree but still say-- it never has to make sense.
A stand-alone bill to ban/further regulate MG's is admittedly unlikely, just because *legal*
MG's are off the radar; but what if there's another Sandy Hook event but with Dem majorities
in both houses of Congress?  (think if SH happened in '09 or '10)   I think we could see
the liberals piling on, trying to outdo each other, if they thought their moment had *finally*
come... there's at least 40+ years of liberal "payback" saved up for the NRA...
and adding a Machinegun ban into an "Omnibus Gun Control Act" would be something they
likely wouldn't pass up.  Sure, there would be years of Judicial appeals but conceivably all
transfers might be halted until the appeals are resolved.

Another angle not talked about much are ammo restrictions-- what if non-dealers could only purchase
1,000 rounds per year, and possess only 100 rounds at any one time?  (*primers included)
There wouldn't be much "full auto" shooting (although collector interest would persist).

- - - - - - -

So, my personal bottom line, as far as value tied up in MG's:
#1.  It's always risky to tie a significant portion of one's net worth up in any single asset-- best not to do it,
if avoidable.
#2.  I enjoy owning MG's for shooting, historical & collecting reasons.  However, If they were taken away from
me tomorrow, I might be pretty teed-off... but I wouldn't be anywhere near financially ruined.

YMMV.

There is way too much stuff coming out of the pipeline...not even the SAR show in Phoenix can open up the pandoras box of interesting stuff coming.

Agreed.

I think a lot of people look at MG owners and think they are crazy for having so much wealth tied up in a risky asset. What they dont realize is for most people who own MGs their collection is a drop in the bucket compared to their total net worth. There are days when I gain or loose the value of a MG just based on stock market fluctuations. If some crazy new law was passed banning/confiscating MGs most owners would be more mad about the loss of their freedom than the financial impact.

And as a side not this is why MG values continue to rise, honestly i dont think we are anywhere near the top. People act like $10k or $20k is an insanely amount of money, yet they probably have a motor cycle and some sort of water craft sitting in their garage (loosing value)

I'm getting to the point where I may have to face this dilemma myself (I'm 70 years old).

Think of the tax considerations. If you're sitting on a hugely appreciated asset (and most MG collections fall into that category), you'll be faced with a large capital-gains tax bill if you sell while you are still alive. If you die while still owning them, they'll go into your estate at a stepped-up basis (fair market value at date of death), and then your heir can sell them with little or no capital gain.

The trick, I think, is to make all the arrangements to sell ahead of time (lining up a dealer or other buyer, etc.) but have them take effect after your death. This would involve leaving detailed written instructions to your widow, etc.

as stated above, there are so many political angles to make these things lose value, ammo restrictions or insurance requirements.  Or just loss of ranges where you can shoot them.   Anyway people always trot out the car, boat or cycle angle.  Yeah they lose value and often the owners don't have the time to use them, but if you do have the time to use them and can involve friends and family they can provide a lot of enjoyment.

End of day, before the 1986 ban, machine guns sold for same or less than the semi auto equivalent.   A machine gun doesn't really provide a lot of value on its own.   They are fun toys and just that.  Plus don't forget all those boats and cycles are available over the counter with 6 year financing.   If those toys required cash up front, the market for boats and cycles would crater to less than half its current size.

Anyway, alot of this isn't necessarily aimed at current prices but some folk's lofty expectations about the future market.    Unless we start having machine gun regattas or concurs events with lots of pretty ladies in fancy hats, don't expect your machine guns to increase 10x the rate of inflation forever.

I do agree with this.  Very well put and true.

Hey man, 70 is the new 50 man. You could still be enjoying those toys for 10-20-more years. Don't start looking at gravestones yet!

i buy what i want, when i feel like it. the price is what it is at the time. i dont dream about yesteryear... i just look Foward.  

I don't agree with this assessment.


I do think that guns are a hobby, not a retirement vehicle.  

I don't think people should have their savings tied up in MGs.  Put it into a low-load Vanguard S&P500 fund or real estate or something like that.

All my money that I have locked up in my guns is my 'fun" money accumulated over the years.


The price of machineguns is the result of two things -

1. A severely restricted supply as a result of the 86 cap.

2. An explosion of interest in these guns among people with plenty of money to spend.


Back when these guns cost $200, nobody wanted them or gave a crap about them.

Now they are considered the most valuable and exotic collector guns you can own.

That's night and day difference in attitude among gun collectors.


Also, the prices are getting too high for the "average guy" to pay.

So what?

The supply is so small that the market doesn't need average guys.

How many $50,000 Thompsons will come up for sale this year?  One?  Two?


I really don't care if the prices continue to rise, I'm not planning on selling anything.

But I think the market has a long way to go yet before it levels off.

i just love to shoot... the cost is what it is