I've been thinking in October 2004 what will become the dominant caliber/gun.  Remember back in the 80s when the high tech wonder nines were all the rage.  Then came the 10mm and 40 S&W.  But then that ten round limit came into play.  Companies like Wilson Combat, STI, and Para-Ord brought back the classic John Browning design.  Shooters flocked to these guns in the hard hitting .45.

When the Crime Bill expires(I hope) will shooters go back to the wonder nine's.  Maybe to the 1911 style high-cap 45s?  Could we see a rebirth of the 10mm?  Engineering has come a long way since it's first introduction.  Maybe someone could come out with a gun that can reliably handle the brute without the hazard of KBs.

What do you think it will be?

I think it will be a compromise at .40 cal. High cap, good power.

I don't really care what the caliber will be.  I like the 9mm and .45 ACP, thats just my preference, everyone has one they should just shoot what they like and not care about what seems to be the most popular.  All I want is new pre-ban rifles, accessories, and high capacity magazines

But really we should be afraid of not only the possible renewal of the 1994 Crime Bill but also the Assault Weapons Ban and Law Enforcement Protection Act of 2003.  Read more about it here: frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=108_cong_bills&docid=f:h2038ih.txt.pdf
Be worried about the future but be scared of the present.

If dominant is defined by number of sales - 22LR as always.

I don't think anyone can predict how dominant any one cartridge can get but I think we can take a educated guess at who is going to go up or down.

Going up, 10mm Auto and 9mm Parabellum.

Going down, .40 S&W and .45 ACP.

10mm Auto fits better into high caps than a .45ACP as well as being more powerful than standard velocity .45 ammo. .40S&W will take it from both ends. 10mm Auto guns can hold just as many rounds, and can be downloaded, and doesn't have the sensitivity to pressure fluxuations that is probably behind the various .40cal Kaboom stories. 9mm guns will also squeeze them because they hold even more rounds, bullet performance has improved, and again a wider range of pressures can be fired safely. And with 20+ round magazines available again, people will generally be less sensitive to cartridge power issues, and just count on shooting a badguy  3 or 4 times each instead of 1 or 2.

Since there are more bad shots than good ones out there, .45 ACP will loose popularity at least in full size guns. People will want the high capacity, 10mm gives it without a loss of power. As milsurplus .45 ammo stocks dry up the price difference between 10mm and .45 ammo will disappear. Compact .45 handguns, Officers models and such, will probably remain strong because 10mm cant really use a barrel that short and the magazine capacity of 9mms is reduced too much.

People will try to make .40 S&W guns in a family like Glock has done and try to sell them as guns that can handle any task and you only need one kind of ammo and one set of magazines. Instead they will find that it does none of the jobs well enough. LE Organizations accountants will be attracted to this more than the public-but even there it will face pressure from the cost advantage of all that M882 ammo, and remanufactured ammo loaded on LC M882 brass.

Quoted:

Going up, 10mm Auto and 9mm Parabellum.

Going down, .40 S&W and .45 ACP.



#1: Yes. Many that did not get theirs prior to 94 have held off on 10mm because of the prohibitive cost of magazines, & nobody would carry a 9mm with a 10 round magazine... it's not enough stopping power.

#2 NO!!! One of the things the ban did was convert many to the .45 since 10 rounds of .45 beats the shit out of 10rds of 9mm. I find it hard to believe that those who made the .45 commitment will compromise that stopping power for 3-5 additional rounds of 9mm. ???? Well instead of the 9mm Glock they get the .45. Instead of the Beretta they go with a Para Ordnance. The .45 craze is an institution, a fixture. Evidence of this is the addition of 2 staggered magazine guns (Kimber and Springfield Armory) DESPITE the avalibility of any more legal magazines on the market. As to .40 S&W I cannot say.

I think the 9mm will make a big comeback.

The future of 10mm will be interesting, at the gun store I frequent, 10mm is already becoming pretty popular. I have resisted the temptation so far.

I think the .32 acp will make a Come back in a new 25 round pistol. Followed by a new .45 GAP round.

Quoted: Followed by a new .45 GAP round.

I'll STILL be carrying 9 shots of .45ACP.

I won't place any bets.
What if the gunmakers decide not to offer any higher cap mags? (political pressure)
Or you have a lot invested in what you already have?
I do think anyone with 10 round 9MM mags will try to get the higher cap mags for their guns, same with the .40 cal. and wide body .45s.
.22 pistols generally are 10 rounds, but rifles like the 10/22 could always use the 25-30 and up capacity to increase the fun factor.
Either way, it will be interesting.

My bet is that .22 LR, 9mm, and .40 S&W pistols will increase in popularity simply because they were the hardest hit by the 1994 ban.  As for service pistols, 9mm will make the biggest comeback for two reasons: 1) 9mm performance has made great strides over the past decade, 2) many people won't be able to resist the allure of carrying a sidearm with 15-17+ rounds of ammo in the (now inexpensive) magazine.

I think .45 enthusiasts will always be .45 enthusiasts, and this won't change.  I do think newbies will steer clear of the .45 ACP due in large part to #2 above.  The number of .45 owners will not grow and will proportionately decrease.

Just my two cents.

I would bet that with the scarcity of .40/.357Sig hicaps, that the .357 Sig will take off and the .40 will become a has-been.

I think .45 enthusiasts will always be .45 enthusiasts, and this won't change. I do think newbies will steer clear of the .45 ACP due in large part to #2 above. The number of .45 owners will not grow and will proportionately decrease.

I know that there are a goodly number of M1911 affecionados out there, but 1911 sales were down in the 80's and early 90's. When they had to face hi-cap 9mm competition. Now hi-cap 45. pistols were just begining to come on the market, when the crime bill took effect. Their sales will pick up. But, its easier to build a Hi-cap 10mm that has a slimmer grip and holds more rounds. Ultimately, therefore .45cal sales will dip, as high cap 10mm pistols-including double wide 10mm 1911's- take over more of the market for serious "social purposes".

It could take the next decade for the market to shake out to its final form.

Quoted: I think .45 enthusiasts will always be .45 enthusiasts, and this won't change. I do think newbies will steer clear of the .45 ACP due in large part to #2 above. The number of .45 owners will not grow and will proportionately decrease. I know that there are a goodly number of M1911 affecionados out there, but 1911 sales were down in the 80's and early 90's. When they had to face hi-cap 9mm competition. Now hi-cap 45. pistols were just begining to come on the market, when the crime bill took effect. It could take the next decade for the market to shake out to its final form.

So the 1911ers are static. Well the point that hi-cap 45s coming into existence JUST before the crime bill only proves my point that .45s will go up. Everybody that wanted a 9mm got one between 1995 and 2003 because there was little shortage in hi-caps. Despite these continual 9mm sales, both 1911s AND .45s (Glock, HKs, & Paras) that you couldn't get mags for (without paying an arm & a leg) still sold & sold well. Those that have staggered .45s will make a mad dash for new mags. 10 mm will go up but the lion's share of big caliber auto shooters will NOT favor the 10 mm. They never have.

A full capicity Glock 17 mag holds 17 rounds. Glock now makes a +3 factory mag extension. A 21 shot (20 +1)9mm is kinda nice <G> especially when it weighs less fully loaded than an EMPTY M1911-A1

Quoted: I would bet that with the scarcity of .40/.357Sig hicaps, that the .357 Sig will take off and the .40 will become a has-been.

Most Hi-CAp 40/.357 sig mags only hold 11 Rounds. So the ban didnt have much of an effect on the guns in that caliber.

BTW: I would definately buy a 30 shot .32 acp glock, or maybe a 25 round 38 super.

Well, I'm buying one of those .45 milimeter armor piercing sniper assault handguns that the media is always talking about.

I like the 9mm and 45ACP.

Its true that you could download the 10mm but thats how we got the 40S&W.

I don't really put that much emphasis on the magazine capacity for self defense. 7-8 round of 45ACP is fine for me. If you can't stop an attacker with 7 round of 45 ACP you may as well use round #8 on yourself.