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Posted: 5/14/2016 12:41:19 PM EDT
Efficient Estimators
Relative Efficiency of Extreme Spread estimation by group size. If our goal is to characterize a range statistic using the least number of shots then we should pick our group size carefully. Kolbe et. al. noted that for any desired error and confidence level it looked like 7-shot groups produced a significant estimate using the lowest number of total shots fired. Using our more extensive simulations of the coefficient of variation we can see now that 6-shot groups are actually the most efficient, and that 5-shot groups are practically as efficient (and for many scenarios identical). 4- and 8-shot groups are almost as efficient, but if you're shooting 3-shot groups or groups larger than 9 shots then you are wasting bullets. http://ballistipedia.com/index.php?title=Range_Statistics#Efficient_Estimators |
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No Offense intended at all.... but your quoted first sentence is not my goal...."If our goal is to characterize a range statistic using the least number of shots then we should pick our group size carefully"
I actually will stay with 10 shoots, I have found 10 shoots to be beneficial to my training. While statistically speaking... 7 shoots might be optimum mathematically.... I have rarely seen a mathematical formula translate into real world, everyday performance. As a matter of fact, I just had a repeated shot 7 or shot 8 issue, ( IMHO, scope related ) that I may not have been able to detect the "defect" with just 7 shots groups. I am glad I was shooting 10 shot groups, and I feel, with an AR15, it is a better reflection of the overall accuracy of the type of rifle action, ( semi auto ) and the variables and idiosyncrasies associated within it. I mean would that mathematical formula apply to all rifle actions ? ... Single shot ? Bolt action ? S/A , Full Auto ?... or is that formula better suited to a bench rest 28lb rifle ? .... I hope that makes sense. Those are variables to consider as well.....maybe not statistically.... but certainly in the world of the Semi-Auto. I truly believe there are different appropriate "shots" fired group sizes for different uses of a rifle.... for deer-sized + hunting a 3 shot group is probably the most practical... when the rifle is used as intended, you would rarely fire it more then 3 times, and it almost always will be from a cold bore....on the other end is the 28lb Bench rifle... its purpose is completely different then a LtWt Hiking rifle....... those are variables that should be considered. So..... 10 shots is a suitable indication of what your semi-automatic action AR15 is capable of when compared to other AR15's. 10 shots will have warmed up the action / rifle / barrel enough to show what it can do. Just my 2 cents, and I truly respect your ( Happy2Shoot ) looking into the question so thoroughly.... but I still think 10 shots is better suited to the semi-auto rifles and all the banging around parts. You made me think about something I had never considered.... and honestly, I probably would have just skipped over the Handloader magazine article, also enlightening. I really am not trying to argue or disprove your point....I just think 10 shoots is worthwhile. Happy2Shoot ( for that matter, anyone ), seriously , if I am the wrong track, please tell me, and if you could explain..... Because I would like to be better educated about shooting. ( Truly no sarcasm intended ) |
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OP, cool info and confirms my observations about shooting far-from-useless 3 shot groups.
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Umm, the OP says, in the last line of text, that 3 shot groups are a waste of bullets. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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OP, cool info and confirms my observations about shooting far-from-useless 3 shot groups. Umm, the OP says, in the last line of text, that 3 shot groups are a waste of bullets. Yep, umm, he's got his opinion about the info and I got mine, mine based in shooting a metric shit-ton of outgoing rifles and my outright domination of the 1MOA/SPR board. |
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Yep, umm, he's got his opinion about the info and I got mine, mine based in shooting a metric shit-ton of outgoing rifles and my outright domination of the 1MOA/SPR board. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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OP, cool info and confirms my observations about shooting far-from-useless 3 shot groups. Umm, the OP says, in the last line of text, that 3 shot groups are a waste of bullets. Yep, umm, he's got his opinion about the info and I got mine, mine based in shooting a metric shit-ton of outgoing rifles and my outright domination of the 1MOA/SPR board. I'm aware of your position, Mark, believe me. Just saying that the info in the OP doesn't really support it. And I'm looking for an opportunity to reshoot the MOA challenge now that I have my MBT (thank you for that). |
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I'm aware of your position, Mark, believe me. Just saying that the info in the OP doesn't really support it. And I'm looking for an opportunity to reshoot the MOA challenge now that I have my MBT (thank you for that). View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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OP, cool info and confirms my observations about shooting far-from-useless 3 shot groups. Umm, the OP says, in the last line of text, that 3 shot groups are a waste of bullets. Yep, umm, he's got his opinion about the info and I got mine, mine based in shooting a metric shit-ton of outgoing rifles and my outright domination of the 1MOA/SPR board. I'm aware of your position, Mark, believe me. Just saying that the info in the OP doesn't really support it. And I'm looking for an opportunity to reshoot the MOA challenge now that I have my MBT (thank you for that). 90% doesn't support what ? |
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Keep this on topic - Eric802 View Quote Sir: With respect to you............ my comments were on topic. The OP is fixed on questioning the issue of Extreme Spreads and the number of shots used for that. In the article he quotes from (and misrepresents) it explains the difference between range statistics (ie Extreme Spreads) and Invariant Data (ie Mean Radius). I pointed out that posters like Molon, use both to address this issue................ |
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Just to be clear.
None of the words in the original post are mine. The OP is a quote from the link provided. The link is from a web page created by PhD level scientists and professional statistitions. I provided the information for 2 reasons. 1) Accidemic knowlage. If you have ever wondered how many shots does it take? Should I shoot 3? 10? 5 groups of 5? 2)How many boxes of ammo do I need to find a good deer hunting load? Well if it is you and your son and you are poor you only need to buy one box of each type of ammo you want to try. 6 for dad, 6 for son with 8 left over to hunt with if they shoot well in both rifles. If not, on to the next type of ammo. |
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^^^
Thanks, I did think those were all your words. No worries, neat stuff and thanks again for posting. |
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OP:
No offense but I didn't think those were any of your words at all. You snipped and cut from an article over theories that you haven't proven yourself. If you want to help out that poor father/son combo.............. instead of posting theories, start posting your results. Posters, like Molon, take the time to carefully post results of ALOT of different ammunition. Some posters do so in a way which gives a good idea of how precise various ammunition is. If you feel there is a better way of testing............start testing ammunition in the real world and post it. That might actually help the poor father/son, instead of posting a theory. |
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OP: No offense but I didn't think those were any of your words at all. You snipped and cut from an article over theories that you haven't proven yourself. If you want to help out that poor father/son combo.............. instead of posting theories, start posting your results. Posters, like Molon, take the time to carefully post results of ALOT of different ammunition. Some posters do so in a way which gives a good idea of how precise various ammunition is. If you feel there is a better way of testing............start testing ammunition in the real world and post it. That might actually help the poor father/son, instead of posting a theory. View Quote Let's welcome as much info as we can get. Keep in mind Molon has long ago hung his hat on 10-shot groups and is constantly hellbent to justify 10-shot groups. Molon found it back in his heart to grace us with his presence after I shot and ate his sacred 10-round cow with 3 well placed shots. 3-round groups tell me whether a rifle is shippable enough to land a spot on the 1MOA SPR ladder. ETA - and the OP's 90% probability chart is what I already knew. |
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Yes.............. The more "data" the better.
I personally use 10shot groups for a reason and don't need to justify them to myself. But instead of talking........... shoot. The OP, like most of us, needs the practice and theories are great and all but results are what matter. |
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Nobody sees more daily shooting results of brand new rifles than me.
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I use 10 shot groups as well, both for velocity measurement and accuracy/precision of the particular load. I'm nowhere near the sophistication of Molon's tests but I do post my results when I compile them.
10 shots sure seem to bring out any inconsistencies in a load that would be missing from some 6-7 round and lower tests. |
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I use 10 shot strings for one thing, and that's chrono data. If I'm testing reloads, I use 5 shot groups. Zeroing an optic, three & adjust.
There is, IMHO, a difference between what's required for laboratory-grade statistical analysis and what is "plenty damn good enough". I used to use 10 shot groups when I was testing reloads; then I found I was going through a lot of components trying to arrive at a decent load, and at some point, shooter fatigue becomes an issue. I went to 5 shot groups and you know what? My reloads shoot just fine. Good enough to make the cut on the MOA challenge. Molon does his thing with 10 shot groups and that's great. He's doing the next best thing to lab-condition shooting and his results are unquestionable. Mark LaRue test shoots his rifles with 3 shot groups and the MOA All Day results show that his guns also do just fine with larger groups. I hate imagine how much ammo he'd go through if he tested every upper with 10 shots. 3 works for him and that's fine. Honestly, I really wish folks in my beloved Ammo forum would worry less about how many shots are in someone else's groups. Shoot more, worry less. My .02. |
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Nobody sees more daily shooting results of brand new rifles than me. View Quote Mark? ... no offense but whoever you are............. You are clearly confident about the products you sell. Which is good. You should be. You got that way by repetition and knowing the product involved- the rifle, ammo and shooter. Most of us don't have that luxury. When I buy new-to-me ammunition or a rifle, I don't have that confidence in it. Yes- manufacturers make promises etc but I won't KNOW what something will do until I test it. I test ammunition by shooting it- clean barrel, dirty, warm cold. Once I've done that- I know what it will do. I shoot Service Rifle and we shoot 10shot strings, so I shoot 10 shot strings. I don't have the time or money to buy every type of ammunition out there. Posts, like Molons, which are well done help me screen what I might purchase. Instead of dogging him, you should recognize how he helps you.....If I were to buy one of your rifles, I'd want to test it with good ammunition. His, and others, tests help me know what good ammunition is out there and when I put it your rifle and get a good outcome........... it's because of both my selection of a good rifle and ammunition. Eric: Yes........... shoot more.......talk less.............. |
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Mark? ... no offense but whoever you are............. You are clearly confident about the products you sell. Which is good. You should be. You got that way by repetition and knowing the product involved- the rifle, ammo and shooter. Most of us don't have that luxury. When I buy new-to-me ammunition or a rifle, I don't have that confidence in it. Yes- manufacturers make promises etc but I won't KNOW what something will do until I test it. I test ammunition by shooting it- clean barrel, dirty, warm cold. Once I've done that- I know what it will do. I shoot Service Rifle and we shoot 10shot strings, so I shoot 10 shot strings. I don't have the time or money to buy every type of ammunition out there. Posts, like Molons, which are well done help me screen what I might purchase. Instead of dogging him, you should recognize how he helps you.....If I were to buy one of your rifles, I'd want to test it with good ammunition. His, and others, tests help me know what good ammunition is out there and when I put it your rifle and get a good outcome........... it's because of both my selection of a good rifle and ammunition. Eric: Yes........... shoot more.......talk less.............. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Nobody sees more daily shooting results of brand new rifles than me. Mark? ... no offense but whoever you are............. You are clearly confident about the products you sell. Which is good. You should be. You got that way by repetition and knowing the product involved- the rifle, ammo and shooter. Most of us don't have that luxury. When I buy new-to-me ammunition or a rifle, I don't have that confidence in it. Yes- manufacturers make promises etc but I won't KNOW what something will do until I test it. I test ammunition by shooting it- clean barrel, dirty, warm cold. Once I've done that- I know what it will do. I shoot Service Rifle and we shoot 10shot strings, so I shoot 10 shot strings. I don't have the time or money to buy every type of ammunition out there. Posts, like Molons, which are well done help me screen what I might purchase. Instead of dogging him, you should recognize how he helps you.....If I were to buy one of your rifles, I'd want to test it with good ammunition. His, and others, tests help me know what good ammunition is out there and when I put it your rifle and get a good outcome........... it's because of both my selection of a good rifle and ammunition. Eric: Yes........... shoot more.......talk less.............. 10-shot groups shot out of a single barrel someone happened to get off a barrel line somewhere tells us what that and only that barrel will do, not whether or not a groundhog is in mortal danger from a bullet flung from a barrel other than the one in the test. |
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10-shot groups shot out of a single barrel someone happened to get off a barrel line somewhere tells us what that and only that barrel will do, not whether or not a groundhog is in mortal danger from a bullet flung from a barrel other than the one in the test. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Nobody sees more daily shooting results of brand new rifles than me. Mark? ... no offense but whoever you are............. You are clearly confident about the products you sell. Which is good. You should be. You got that way by repetition and knowing the product involved- the rifle, ammo and shooter. Most of us don't have that luxury. When I buy new-to-me ammunition or a rifle, I don't have that confidence in it. Yes- manufacturers make promises etc but I won't KNOW what something will do until I test it. I test ammunition by shooting it- clean barrel, dirty, warm cold. Once I've done that- I know what it will do. I shoot Service Rifle and we shoot 10shot strings, so I shoot 10 shot strings. I don't have the time or money to buy every type of ammunition out there. Posts, like Molons, which are well done help me screen what I might purchase. Instead of dogging him, you should recognize how he helps you.....If I were to buy one of your rifles, I'd want to test it with good ammunition. His, and others, tests help me know what good ammunition is out there and when I put it your rifle and get a good outcome........... it's because of both my selection of a good rifle and ammunition. Eric: Yes........... shoot more.......talk less.............. 10-shot groups shot out of a single barrel someone happened to get off a barrel line somewhere tells us what that and only that barrel will do, not whether or not a groundhog is in mortal danger from a bullet flung from a barrel other than the one in the test. Yes and that is exactly my point and the difference between what you are trying to accomplish and the average shooter. I can only shoot one rifle (barrel) at a time and I only bought that one barrel, not a whole line of them. So yes, it is very important for me to know what that one barrel does................. You can make or buy a whole series of barrels to test at once. I don't and can't. Instead the question of the quality of a barrel (or rifle or ammunition) is answered by quality posts from numerous posters (like from Molon) which then help to confirm or deny my testing.................. |
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I make my barrels with a certain precision process, a process that I know produces highly likely results. I don't have to shoot my barrels to see if they'll shoot, I only shoot them to head off doubts the new owner will naturally have. |
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AGAIN, let's keep this on topic. If you want to discuss all things LaRue Tactical, they have a forum here - Eric802
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so now Internet posting are as good as "proven/objective math sciences"???? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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my outright domination of the 1MOA/SPR board. so now Internet posting are as good as "proven/objective math sciences"???? Hmmm, your descibing Molon's internet postings as "internet postings" was, well, unexpected. |
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I don't understand what all the hard feelings are about? Science is science. The facts and the proof are posted. A group of professionals gave you all the results of the equivalent of millions of rounds of ammo shot. If you don't want to hear it, fine. But it's still true. Go play the lottery if you think you know statistics better. As for the guy that posts a lot about the ammo he shoots. Great job, thank you for the time and info. But, facts are facts. He hates 3 round internet commandos and 6 rounds is all you need to shoot.
While we are at it, his work is not sophisticated. Well documented? Yes. Pretty to look at? Absolutely. Good info so we can compare ammo? Yes! He shoots 10 rounds out of a very nice rig, that's all. Not a sophisticated test. I'll save some one the post. Why don't I post some work? Because what I do or don't do doesn't change reality. It's not a contest. it just is. |
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LaRue_Tactical:
You heard the man.... start shooting 7rd groups....... listen to him, he knows. Your 3rd groups are useless........... This thread was revived why? Noone has posted anything new............ |
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LaRue_Tactical: You heard the man.... start shooting 7rd groups....... listen to him, he knows. Your 3rd groups are useless........... This thread was revived why? Noone has posted anything new............ Public service announcement. Yes..... courteousy of Happy2shoot....... So you'll start shooting 7rd groups for your rifles? Sweet! ... |
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Yes..... courteousy of Happy2shoot....... So you'll start shooting 7rd groups for your rifles? Sweet! ... View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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LaRue_Tactical: You heard the man.... start shooting 7rd groups....... listen to him, he knows. Your 3rd groups are useless........... This thread was revived why? Noone has posted anything new............ Public service announcement. Yes..... courteousy of Happy2shoot....... So you'll start shooting 7rd groups for your rifles? Sweet! ... Maybe I'll start shooting 0-shot groups, you know, just like the big name high end barrel makers. |
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Happy2Shoot wont be happy with that at all............... not at all.................
That answer isn't even on his chart..... |
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