Im here in somewhere in Texas and see that preban prices are absolutely smoking at my local shops.

SP1s for $1099
Colt Preban AR15s for $1200
PWA for $1100
Bushy Prebans for $1100

Man, I dont know what to do!
I can wait, or buy now just in case...

It would mean putting off the laptop.

Anyone else seeing hot prices??

I too have noticed prices coming down.  Soon they will be lower.

I got a Blue label pre-ban for $950 and a buddy got an SP-1 for $1050 in Oct/Nov.  I think the panic has begun.  We were buying insurance, but if the ban expires those are probably $600 rifles.

Yeah, I hedged my bets and got one, just in case it does not sunset...

It an interesting lesson in economics.

SOME of the  "preban" rifles will become "old" AR15s.

SOME of the "preban" rifles will become "collectables" due to inherent desirability in the model/brand.

For example, I believe the SP1 will always have a higher value than a brand new AR15 with identical features.  Even if the AWB ends tomorrow, unless Colt begins remaking these there is a sentimental attachment to the model type.

But PWA and OLY lowers made before 1994 will be worth - $250.  Why more when you can get a brand new one for that?

Gonna be interesting to see who blinks.  My bet is by  summer prebans will be worth a tiny bit more than new rifles.  

Your economics model is based on the assumption that the ban will indeed sunset as planned. I hope you are right, but I am not 100% certain that it will.

I'm new to all this so forgive me.
What is the difference b/n the pre-ban and post-ban receivers. If there is a difference, why did they make the change? What is it in the AWB 1994 that stopped the making of those certain receivers?

_DR

You are correct sir.  I based my comments assuming the ban will sunset.  And I guarantee it will.  It MUST by law.  They could pass a similar or worse ban before it dies but this one WILL die.




The difference in function, fit, and design is ZERO.  The difference is only in the eyes of the law.

If the reciever was configured in an evil Assault Rifle configuration before the 1994 Assault Weapon Ban (AWB), then it is grandfathered and allowed to keep the evil features.  If it was made AFTER the 1994 AWB then it may not have the evil features.

Basically, the preban recievers may have uppers on them that include bayonet lugs and flash suppressors.  Postban recievers must have permanently attached somethings on the end of the barrel and no bayonet lug.

To make this really clear, put two rifles side by each with exactly the same function, caliber, magazines, etc.  One can have the bayo lug and threaded flash suppressor, one must not have the bayo lug and the supressor whatever it is must be welded on.

Functionally, you could swap the two uppers and they would both still work on their new lowers.  But  you would be commiting a felony by doing so.

No one on this board is really clear on why this makes America safer, but  we are all sure it must or our beloved leaders wouldn't have passed the law in the first place.  Would they?

The receivers are exactly the same. The only differece is the serial # on a pre-ban can be looked up and if your rifle left the factory a complete firearm, you can have such "evil" features such as a bayonet lug, telestock, flash suppressor. The AWB banned the manufacture of new assault weapons, but the writers of the bill defind an assault weapon as follows
An assault weapon is
a weapon with a detatchable magazine and two or more of the following
bayo lug
flash suppressor/threaded muzzle
folding/telestock
pistol grip
All the major manufactures of ARs simply left out the threaded muzzle, flash suppressor, telestock, and bayo lug which made new AR type firearms in complyence with the AWB.

Oh yeah, the Colt AR15 was banned by name so the name AR15 will not be seen on a post ban. I think that is the only way the receiver is different.
I believe that all my info is correct but if it's not I'm sure someone will point out my errors.
Sorry for the crappy spelling,
Ants

Any law can be amended. Any clause can be removed by the legislature. If they remove the sunset clause before it sunsets, it will not sunset.

It this likely? No. Is it possible? Of course.

The same legislative bodies that passed the law in the first place can modify it at anytime. It is unlikely congress and the senate will raise the majority needed to introduce amendments to the GCA enacted in 1994, but it is possible nevertheless. And the president has said he would sign such legislation.

It is not GUARANTEED to sunset.

IF the ban does sunset, those pre-bans will be just "old rifles" in some states, but the states where there is a permanant AWB, they will be cheap prebans

I think that the Colts are safe bets to hold their value regardless of what happens, but anything else is a bit of a gamble.  Post-ban Colts aren't exactly cheap.  I'd think that anything close to $1k for a pre-ban Colt isn't too shabby.