So, like a good boy scout, we all want to be prepared for whatever comes out way. My question is what do you think is the most likely scenario of SHTF and I am not talking about a couple days from natural disaster.

1) Our country is invaded
2) Our government turns on the citizens
3) Government collapses (Monetary reasons or otherwise)
4) Zombie attack

The dollar is going to collapse, it's been going down since 1913, when the Fed Reserve farce was created. The dollar was worth about .04 cents last year, down from $1.00 in 1913. Now with the bailouts and stimulus garbage, the dollar is dropping very fast. They are printing money causing what we have to lose value like a rock off a cliff. It's almost as if they are doing it on purpose, it's hard to believe they can see what's happening and still go foward. One world gov't or at least monetary system, must be their goal.

I seriously think they take the American people for granted, there might be another "revolution" of some kind. I hope not, but I see a tidal wave coming......

1) Radical islamists (did not capitalize due to disrespect) still hate us and know we are weak due to leadership.  Another coordinated attack could be in the making.  It's real.  Our leadership can't even keep the president safe.  Dirty bombs, truck bomb, some super explosive the Rads have developed and tested could all help cause 3#
2) happening now. the prep is information and the fix is exercising the right to vote. Do It!  Maintain the Constitution and continually dog our elected officials. We can change this.  Losers will cry and stamp their little insignificant feet and create a self fulfilled prophecy by not having any voice in American politics by NOT voting.  If the other team recovers a fumble and has 4 downs to go does not make a victory.
3) this one, scary as it sounds, is one big natural disaster or terrorists dirty bomb away.
4) there is a place in ARFCOM devoted to this nonsense

#3

TJ speaks the truth...

5 years ago my GF's car was broken into on christmas night. she'd spent christmas morning with my family and i before going to work, after work she stopped by the bar where i work to visit with me before we went home. she'd not had time to go back to her house and dropp everything off, and the jackasses broke into her car and stole everything i'd gotten her for christmas, the stuff  family got her, all her CDs, some other random stuff, and even the clothes she;d worn to my parents prior to changing into her hospital scrubs... police report was filed nothing ever came of it...

4 years ago my buddy ArmedSuspect and i were haveing a late night chitchat at the local waffle house, we ended up leaving about 20-25 minutes before they were robbed at gun point two days before christmas... i honestly can't remember if they ever caught the guy or not...

two mornings later, the morning of christmas eve. the GF's and my roomate had seen me sleeping in the living room when she left for work so she didn't bother to relock the door when she left. three girls in addition to my GF lived in the apt. and i was staying there for a bit as my lease on my place had ended and the new my new apt. wasn't un-occupied yet. the girls were all college students(and i usually slept on the couch int he living room as the GF's housing supplied bed was just a twin and the GF though a small girl is a fucking bedhog), so they wre in and out a lot at odd times and i had grown accustomed to sleeping through folks coming and going. that night i'd fallen asleep in the big love seat by the door after having been awake for about two days and having worked two very long shifts. two of the girls had gone home for christmas and i never heard the last roomate leave, muchless whomever the POS thief was open the door a bit later, walk right by me, and snatch six christmas presents from the living room before closing the door on their way out... police report was filed and nothing ever came of it...

christmas time is a bitch, be on high alert this time of year...

K.

2) has already happened

^^^^^
i agree and yet i don't...

i think in reality the citizens(en masse, not the arfcoms types for the mostpart and certainly not most of the SF regular types) have turned on what the government used to stand for...

the politicians are pieces of shit, but the majority of the citizens did vote them in and they are doing what they want, AND what the citizens want... we've been betrayed by our complcient, lazy, and gimme-gimme, bretheren whom have most certainly out bread and now out number us...

K.

I don't care, I just wanna kill something.

More like

1) Natural catastrophe, earthquake, Katrina part two, floods etc
2) Massive civil disorder due to perceived injustice  economic, legal, racial, H1N1 outbreak etc.
3) WMD, EMP Dirty bomb etc
4) Government collapses (monetary reasons)

Like a lot of people I live within a 4-8 miles walking distance of a large population that is panicky and completely unprepared for any disruption in the food/water/entertainment supply.

Natural disasters, such as the New Madrid Fault going.

Collapse of the dollar.

Job loss, etc.

Hey now, let's not be talkin about the New Madrid fault!  Just keep quite about it and it won't get angry! WE DON'T NEED THE MISSISSIPPI FLOWING BACKWARDS AGAIN!  Besides, I just can't cope with any more BS!

I agree with number 2 here.  It doesn't take much these days for certain elements of society to go into rioting and looting mode, especially with the economy in the dumps.   A nationwide situation, caused by an unusual court case (think OJ Simpson) or an attempted assassination of any prominent minority leader could set it off.  Such a scenario would likely last less than 48 hours, but the aftermath would linger for years.

Stopped at a rest stop recently at night with the family. I took the kids in, then the wife went in alone. As soon as she walked in I suddenly realized she'd be there alone...and then a pick up stopped and a BIG guy got out and basically walked in a minute after she did. I was just about to leave the kids in the car when I saw 2 other guys get out - all tough looking, all shady character types. That's when it suddenly occurred to me that 911 or the trunk gun might be needed. Just then she came out and the other two noticed her then noticed me pulling the SUV closer to pick her up.

No adrenaline dump, no blading at 45 degrees, no brandishing etc. but it made me think about what might have happened. It also made me realize that if seconds mattered the trunk gun was out of the question - a machete was closer than anything. Would I have been ready to use a machete on 3 big guys? No. I'd have pulled the SUV off the curb all the way to the front door.... I was driving the best weapon.

But then what? If they were criminals and armed.... I'd jeapordize the wife, myself and all our kids for not having an immediate means to defend ourselves.

Slow global economic collapse due to extraction of liquid fuels decreasing and export land model eating up exports.
A collapse caused by this would most likely lead to "extremist" politics. I find it to be highly probable for this to be occurring within a few years.

I believe this will cause massive social disorder similar to the Rodney King Riots in 1992 but on a much larger scale all across the country.

I agree that natural disaster is the most likely cause of social order disruption, but this will be localized and very short duration. As bad as Katrina was, it was ho hum on compared to real SHTF.

I think that the US is in deep trouble with the debt we are carrying. Inflation is coming. Part of what makes America so great is also what sets us up for trouble. We, in general, all are very specialized in labor. How many people do you know could take care of themselves past a few days? Someone grows all their food, someone else fixes their car, another one makes all their clothes and so on. Worse yet, most people don't even know people who can do those tasks.

I avoid rest stops like the plague.  I use the restrooms at fastfood restaurants.  I am not criticizing you.  Just a thought.

Number 2 causes number 3 so they are one and the same.  Number 1 and 2 are in progress as we type.

I have a feeling that we are heading towards a "natural" event of extreame preportion.  The kind of thing that will effect almost everyone to a degree.    Like the book says, "in the twinkling of an eye"

Gov't turning on its people - it's happening (in my opinion) and picking up speed.

what makes you thing #1 & #2 arent in progress>?  

This area is buried in illegals.  But hey when they can buy cars , get drivers licenses tests in their language , buy houses , get utilitys and have schools to teach their american born non english speaking kids school in the form of ESL ( english second language) classes and no one to stop them WHY NOT???????


The town next to us which is actually in NY is SO beyond loaded they for every 1 non latino you see 50 latinos.   Funny story. One day we were headed to lunch and a friend who was in the service for years and recently home was riding with me. He said hey its wednesday whats with all the kids out of school. I said DUDE thoose arent kids!   He didnt notice I guess even tho they were all the hight of parking meters they they were infact hundreds of adults out and about walk on the sidewalks with in the few mile strech. Not to mention almost every woman is pushing a baby carrige with a toddler or 2 in tow. Its beyond rediculas.

Number 1 is unlikely in my opinion. "The United States cannot be invaded, because there would be a rifle behind every blade of grass" - Admiral Yamamoto Japanese Naval Fleet Admiral (1941)

Number 2 (Again in my opinion) is already happening to a certain degree. You have corrupt politians that are not listening to their citizens, not doing their jobs, and creating senseless chaos.

Number 3 is already happening to a certain degree as well. Our debt is out of control. We're outsourcing jobs, un-employment is thru the roof, and our left-winged controlled congress is spending money we just don't have. The financal reserve is tanked. Medicare is a joke. Medicaid is a joke. Social Security is a joke. FEMA is worthless. Inflation is a lurking problem. We have a Socialist President that even Al-Quida agrees is a "Good Guy". We have a Secretary of State that is completely psycho. We have a Speaker of the House that only looks out for numero uno, and piss on anyone else. Can we have any more problems?

Number 4 I don't think so.

Prepare for the worst. Hope for the Best.

Live Debt Free.
Stockpile Food, Water, Medical Supplies, Pet Supplies, Firearms, Ammo, Gas, and other Necessities.
Keep a Firearm on you AT ALL TIMES (where legal by Law).
Keep your family safe.
"Prepping" or "Survialist" or whatever you want to call us is a lifestyle/mindset.
Stay Safe. Be Safe.

Listed in order of probability of affecting me:

Natural disasters
Economic downturns
Civil insurrection
Terrorist attacks

That, 10X in TX.  We used to say "thank God we're in Texas...." now we say "oh shit, we're in TX" because when they broadcast the secret coded message on Univision for "reconquista", we are screwed.  I'm guessing that the message will likely be imbedded in an episode of "Dora the Explorer"  since the kids seem to be the only literate illegals (thanks to the rest of us working to pay for educating them...)

I never use rest stops. Use a restroom at a truck stop or restaurant.

It's less of what we think is likely and what's more applicable to you and your location.

The most likely scenario for most people is a financial problem.  Car needs new X, Y or Z and it's your daily driver to work and you don't have $ to fix it, for instance.  Or you get your hours cut or you get laid off and can't make your mortgage/rent payment.  Or you have your debit card compromised and fraudsters drain your account and you get into a pissing match with your bank and don't have access to your money.  This is why you should have checking accounts at more than one bank.  Hell, the first order of checks are free at most banks and if you get fee-free accounts, you're a fool not to.  (Short story:  Guy I know is an attorney and he got in a pissing match with one of the big banks in town over a returned check.  It got so bad that he couldn't open another checking account at any other bank in town for a couple of months until he saw things their way.)  

Want another reason for having cash at home?  If there's a power outage or the Internet goes down for whatever reason, stores usually won't do credit or debit transactions (to include checks).

Common sense dictates that you'll have a couple weeks of food and water at your house in case of storms, strikes, transportation problems (yours or others) or other issues.

I'm not too worried about the U.S. being invaded.  I'm not too worried about the government turning on its citizens (not the place for those reasons).  Government collapse?  Possible.  But then again, I could win the lottery.  Zombies, well, as much as I hope and pray, I don't think that's going to come to pass.

Use some common sense and read up on it as much as possible.

I recommend Listening to Katrina, the (as yet) unfinished but outstanding website put together by Shane S., a fellow Arfcom SFer.  Link here.

John