Quoted:
Has anyone ever really gotten money back after filing a USPS fraud complaint, or do you personally know someone who has?
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Sure do...ME! About 2 years ago had a deal to purchase a number of coins for my collection. Sent the man a personal check and never got any coins, or responses to letters, email or phone calls. Filed a fraud complaint...USPS apparently had a few other complaints concerning this individual and went a-knocking on his door. I heard nothing for about a year then all of a sudden, coins show up. Apparently, the contact by the USPS investigators shook the seller up and either refunded money or sent coins to everyone to get the USPS off his back.
Do not confuse the use of USPS MO with fraud. As far as I know there are only a few reasons that the USPS will refund the amount of a MO, which include things like theft of MO, loss, forgery and the like. IIRC, fraud is not included as a reason for a refund, as is the case with many MO vendors. It would be the same as sending cash or a personal check. Your bank won't care if it was fraud or not, as long as theft, loss or forgery were not involved.
There are many instances of just threatening to file a fraud complaint is enough to cause the seller to come clean, as well as sellers coming clean shortly after the complaint is filed.
If you're screwed, why wouldn't you take advanteage of it? It only takes a few minutes and doesn't preclude you from taking other actions. It seems that USPS takes these things seriously, however, realistically it depends on the amount of $$ and the number of complaints. But who knows, the seller may have other complaints and yours is the one that puts it on the list to do something about.