Good article, not necassarly good news though...

Collapse in Demand for Large SUVs Leaves Owners in a Bind
by Joseph B. White
Sunday, June 1, 2008
provided by Wall Street Journal on Line

Most people who buy a new car or truck don't think they are making a risky bet on the commodity futures market. But they are. Just ask someone who's trying to unload a large sport-utility vehicle purchased in the last two or three years.

The market for large, second-hand SUVs is going through its own version of the mortgage market's meltdown -- and for some of the same reasons. GM Hummer H2s and Chevy Tahoes and Toyota's Sequoias were adjuncts to a lifestyle built on cheap energy. Because gas was cheap, living farther from work in order to buy a larger home in a former corn field (or desert) was a reasonable economic decision. Shuttling 100 miles a day from school to work to mall to Costco was a trivial expense -- $10 or so when gas was $1.50 a gallon. You could spend more supplying all your passengers with 20-ounce bottles of Coca-Cola.

Gasoline at $4 a gallon has burst the super-sized American lifestyle. The proof: The fizz has gone out of sales of those 20-ounce sodas, in part because after the shock of filling up at the pump, people aren't in a mood to buy anything else at the quickie mart.

More seriously, lots of big homes far from town suddenly aren't worth what's owed on them, and the SUVs that ferried people around the sprawl are also "underwater" on their loans.

About 36% of the people who tried to trade in a large SUV in May owed more on the truck than it was worth, according to data from the Power Information Network. That's up from just under 33% a year ago. (It's worse for large pickups. Recent PIN data suggests 40% of large pickups traded during May fetched less than the loan balance.)

A three-year-old large SUV today is worth about $2,000 to $3,000 less at trade-in than a three-year-old large SUV would have been in 2007, before gas prices began to soar, according to Marc Cannon of Inc., the largest U.S. auto retailer. A three-year-old Chevy Tahoe that might have fetched $19,700 in September 2007, he says. Today, a three-year-old Tahoe might be worth $16,400 at trade-in.

In other words, folks who bought a big SUV in 2005 are discovering that they were making a bet that oil prices would remain stable. They were wagering $30,000 to $40,000, not the billions certain U.S. auto makers stand to lose from making a similar wager. But the pain of losing that bet is still real. There hasn't been such a significant collapse in demand for a class of vehicles since the oil embargoes and inflation of the 1970s slaughtered muscle cars.

For the past several weeks, I have passed an increasingly common sign of the times: a Hummer H2 parked at the front of the owner's driveway with a "For Sale" sign in the window. I don't know the seller's motives, but it's doubtful they'll get what they want for the truck, given that Hummer dealers have a glut of unsold new vehicles that will probably leave their lots at fire-sale prices.

Within the past few days, a number of experts in the used-car market have recommended that owners of large SUVs should probably just hang on to their rigs rather than sell into the current collapse.

"If you've got one two- to three-years-old and you're working on a five-year loan, you will be upside down," says Jack Nerad of Kelley Blue Book/KBB.Com. "That's exacerbated by the fact the dealer doesn't want that vehicle right now. It's going to be an ugly scene."

Mr. Nerad's reasoning is that right now could be a trough for large SUV demand. Winter usually brings an uptick in demand for four-wheel-drive vehicles, which would make late model used SUVs more desirable for people who want them.

It's true, as Mr. Nerad points out, that the incremental expense of driving a large SUV for another year -- as opposed to buying a Ford Focus -- is almost certainly less than the financial hit a consumer will take trading in a big SUV right now.

A Toyota Sequoia costs about $1,700 more to drive for a year than a Ford Focus, based on the government's mileage calculations and average gasoline prices of $3.79 per gallon. Even adjusting the calculation to $4 a gallon, you'd likely lose less in a year by keeping the big rig.

This is a perennial debate in financial markets: When do you close out a losing hand? No one would or should pay attention to what a journalist has to say about that. (If we knew….)

The bind of what large SUV owners should do with their rides illustrates the bigger problem confronting the U.S. car business. Vehicle strategies -- the mix of small and large, cars and trucks -- take years to develop. Consumers, likewise, buy vehicles they intend to keep for several years -- as evidenced by the fact that so many people choose to take five- or six-year car loans. The economic environment that makes a vehicle choice look rational can change far more quickly.

What remains to be seen is how consumers will choose to cope with the fallout.

Some big SUV owners may decide that their big truck is worth keeping, provided it is used for tasks only a big truck can do -- such as hauling a trailer. A big SUV that is driven only about 8,000 miles a year costs no more to fuel than a Ford Focus driven 15,000 miles a year. Daily commuting in a big SUV never really made a lot of sense. But now, high gas prices make it economical to get the right tool for that job.

The collapse of the SUV market presents a huge challenge for auto makers. The financial problem is well documented. But this goes beyond red ink. Auto makers will have to reorient their marketing. To sell SUVs, car makers convinced consumers that they needed one vehicle capable of performing every conceivable task from climbing a cliff to negotiating left turns across traffic to get to Nordstroms.

Now, auto makers will have to tell consumers they need a number of vehicles designed for specialized tasks – the SUV for the family vacation, the Mini or the Honda Fit for the slog to work, the luxury sedan for the night out with business associates.

It will be a tough sell. But they may find that many customers are already ahead of them.

Send comments about Eyes on the Road to [email protected].

Copyrighted, Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All rights reserved.

i love my SUV.  Its paid off and a hybrid wont tow my boat

That echoes what I have been saying for months now.

Funnier still is a friend of mine who is selling his home $20,000 less than what he owes on it, so he can take out a $20,000 so he can rent an apartment 20 miles closer to work so he saves money on gas.  In short, he will put himself $20,000 in debt to save $2,000 a year in gas.

I experienced this when I looked at trading our Aviator in on a Camry. I couldn't believe what they offered me, I mean it makes sense, just depressing. We just kept it.

Three more payments on our Ford Explorer. Best vehicle we've ever owned. 22mpg hwy, 17city.

Yeah, we'll keep it.

I really think the whole rush to own a small car is also partly a fad.  Many people think that when people see them driving an SUV or a truck  that they are some how "stupid" for driving a vehicle that sucks on gas mileage. Same reason people rushed out to buy SUV's "hey look at me, I have the money for one too"

Herd mentality at work.

I give props to the author for calling it a GM Hummer H2, instead of just "HUMMER".  There is only one HUMMER.

Full size trucks etc. are fine as long as you do not have a $3-400 payment.
Big payments plus 16mpg = financial suicide.

It's likely the same folks in a bind, who sucked out the inflated equity in their houses and whine when they are upside down and can't sell when the market dropped....

Same/Same with their vehicles. The lesson is: Don't be upside down on ANY loan, or you're stuck. DUH!

My xterra is the same deal. I dont like the mileage with it but Ill be damned if Im going to try and sell it now.  $600 left on the loan and its all mine so I guess Ill just drive the company car more and leave it sit if I have to

Quoted: i love my SUV.  Its paid off and a hybrid wont tow my boat

Exactly. For those of us that need an SUV on a weekly or even daily basis, this article is actually encouraging.

Quoted: Full size trucks etc. are fine as long as you do not have a $3-400 payment. Big payments plus 16mpg = financial suicide.

$627.86/mo.

Nine more months to go.

(forgot my truck doesn't show up anymore...ie, no more avatar)

Quoted: Full size trucks etc. are fine as long as you do not have a $3-400 payment. Big payments plus 16mpg = financial suicide.

$430+ per month an 12.5 MPG, and enjoying my truck.

Quoted: I really think the whole rush to own a small car is also partly a fad.  Many people think that when people see them driving an SUV or a truck  that they are some how "stupid" for driving a vehicle that sucks on gas mileage. Same reason people rushed out to buy SUV's "hey look at me, I have the money for one too" Herd mentality at work.

Well $100 fill ups with no relief in sight might have something to do with it too. I am not into fads I drive a 13 year old 4 banger pick up truck myself. My wife drives about 50 miles a day though and at 14 MPG and $4 gas it has got  to the point where you'd be crazy not to consider and alternative.

That's awesome!

I'll be in the market for a used SUV or truck at the end of the year, so I hope there are still some desparate people trying to unload their behemoths at below market prices.

A local used dealer here recounted a recent story about this.
He said a guy got behind on his Expedition and the bank repossessed it. He still owed $15K on it and let it go to the bank. Ouch.

The bank wanted to sell it to recover money of course so they let this used car guy do it. He started out trying to get $5k for it (you know who has to pay the difference right...the former owner) and he went down down down on the price and couldn't sell it.  Finally they took it to auction and got $2k for it.  BIG OUCH.

You know how much gas you have to be using to offset the sale of a big SUV to get a small car?  Probably take you 100,000 miles to even catch up. Thats like 4-5 years for many peopple

Now, auto makers will have to tell consumers they need a number of vehicles designed for specialized tasks – the SUV for the family vacation, the Mini or the Honda Fit for the slog to work, the luxury sedan for the night out with business associates.

So very true , I have already done the conversion to the above.

I drive my cars a LONG time.  I don't really care how hard it would be to sell.  By the time I'm ready for something new, I wouldn't get much for it anyway.

Quoted: Quoted: I really think the whole rush to own a small car is also partly a fad.  Many people think that when people see them driving an SUV or a truck  that they are some how "stupid" for driving a vehicle that sucks on gas mileage. Same reason people rushed out to buy SUV's "hey look at me, I have the money for one too" Herd mentality at work. Well $100 fill ups with no relief in sight might have something to do with it too. I am not into fads I drive a 13 year old 4 banger pick up truck myself. My wife drives about 50 miles a day though and at 14 MPG and $4 gas it has got  to the point where you'd be crazy not to consider and alternative.

If it is paid off, why bother?  If you truly NEED a new car, then yeah it may make sense, but if the car is reliable and paid off, it makes no financial sense to chunk $10,000 + for a new car just so you save a $1,000 a year in gas.

I paid cash for my used 1999 Suburban, and I'll drive it until the wheels fall off.

The article also neglects a few other expenses associated with new(er) cars, such as higher insurance premiums (I only carry liability coverage, not collision) and the personal property taxes paid to the county each year, which are based on blue book value.  Since the value of the used SUV's is dropping, at least the tax bills will fall for those vehicles as well.

Quoted: Quoted: Full size trucks etc. are fine as long as you do not have a $3-400 payment. Big payments plus 16mpg = financial suicide. $430+ per month an 12.5 MPG, and enjoying my truck.

You are in denial.

I don't have much sympathy for people suffering financially now who bought unneeded gargantuan vehicles as status symbols.

That said, a lot of the sedans on the market these day's don't get much better mileage than some of the SUVs and trucks from the late 80s early 90s. WTF is up with that?

Quoted: I don't have much sympathy for people suffering financially now who bought unneeded gargantuan vehicles as status symbols. That said, a lot of the sedans on the market these day's don't get much better mileage than some of the SUVs and trucks from the late 80s early 90s. WTF is up with that?

Our wonderful government became concerned about the emissions.  So they tightened up on the standards, at the expense of fuel mileage.

Quoted: Quoted: I really think the whole rush to own a small car is also partly a fad.  Many people think that when people see them driving an SUV or a truck  that they are some how "stupid" for driving a vehicle that sucks on gas mileage. Same reason people rushed out to buy SUV's "hey look at me, I have the money for one too" Herd mentality at work. Well $100 fill ups with no relief in sight might have something to do with it too. I am not into fads I drive a 13 year old 4 banger pick up truck myself. My wife drives about 50 miles a day though and at 14 MPG and $4 gas it has got  to the point where you'd be crazy not to consider and alternative.

OK, go trade in your 13 year old pickup for something that gets twice (or even three times) the fuel economy. After the dealer gives you $300 for your truck, how much money are you going to save when you plunk down $20-$25K for a new car?

$25,000 buys a lot of gas...and you don't have to spend it all now.

You'd be better off keeping your truck and investing that $25K.

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: I really think the whole rush to own a small car is also partly a fad.  Many people think that when people see them driving an SUV or a truck  that they are some how "stupid" for driving a vehicle that sucks on gas mileage. Same reason people rushed out to buy SUV's "hey look at me, I have the money for one too" Herd mentality at work. Well $100 fill ups with no relief in sight might have something to do with it too. I am not into fads I drive a 13 year old 4 banger pick up truck myself. My wife drives about 50 miles a day though and at 14 MPG and $4 gas it has got  to the point where you'd be crazy not to consider and alternative. OK, go trade in your 13 year old pickup for something that gets twice (or even three times) the fuel economy. After the dealer gives you $300 for your truck, how much money are you going to save when you plunk down $20-$25K for a new car? $25,000 buys a lot of gas...and you don't have to spend it all now. You'd be better off keeping your truck and investing that $25K.

I don't think you understood my post. I plan on keeping my truck, it was her 2005 Lincoln Aviator with 25k miles on it that we considered trading in. We didn't because of the low trade in value they were offering.

Quoted: I don't think you understood my post. I plan on keeping my truck, it was her 2005 Lincoln Aviator with 25k miles on it that we considered trading in. We didn't because of the low trade in value they were offering.

Why on Earth did you buy that vehicle in the first place?  Sounds like you were into fads when you bought that behemoth.

A Toyota Sequoia costs about $1,700 more to drive for a year than a Ford Focus, based on the government's mileage calculations and average gasoline prices of $3.79 per gallon. Even adjusting the calculation to $4 a gallon, you'd likely lose less in a year by keeping the big rig.

The fact that small cars are no longer selling at a discount also adds to the cost disparity. Toyota is actually increasing prices.

Quoted: The lesson is: Don't be upside down on ANY loan, or you're stuck. DUH!

With the huge depreciation of some domestic models, sometimes that's a tough thing to avoid.

Quoted: Quoted: I don't think you understood my post. I plan on keeping my truck, it was her 2005 Lincoln Aviator with 25k miles on it that we considered trading in. We didn't because of the low trade in value they were offering. Why on Earth did you buy that vehicle in the first place?

Gas wasn't as much then and that is what she bitched and moaned that she wanted. I wanted her to get a Toyota Camry from the start, but if you are married you know how it goes sometimes. It actually has been a good vehicle just bad on fuel.

Quoted: Quoted: The lesson is: Don't be upside down on ANY loan, or you're stuck. DUH! With the huge depreciation of some domestic models, sometimes that's a tough thing to avoid.

Don't buy new, pay cash, and someone else takes that depreciation hit.

Now is a great time to buy an SUV or large pickup for limited uses like hauling and towing.  Unfortunately for me, the raising fuel, food and ammo prices are eating up my disposable income.  I guy offered me his 1993 Ford Explorer for $1500.  A good deal but I just don't have the money to blow right now.

I hope the same happens to the modern muscle cars as well. I'll scoop some of them up in a heartbeat and sit on them til about 2030.

Also, a lot of houses are starting to look attractive now because of prices.

The economy isn't going to tank as bad as the scare media is making it out to be. I see one opportunity after another and I'm sure that I'm not alone.

Im SO thankful that we traded in the wifes gas hog for a gas miser back on 2005. I still have my paid for truck to haul my car to the track and she saves a TON in fuel.

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: I don't think you understood my post. I plan on keeping my truck, it was her 2005 Lincoln Aviator with 25k miles on it that we considered trading in. We didn't because of the low trade in value they were offering. Why on Earth did you buy that vehicle in the first place? Gas wasn't as much then and that is what she bitched and moaned that she wanted. I wanted her to get a Toyota Camry from the start, but if you are married you know how it goes sometimes. It actually has been a good vehicle just bad on fuel.

We actually keep things like that seperate.   She buys the vehicle she wants and what she can afford and I do the same.

Quoted: With the huge depreciation of some domestic models, sometimes that's a tough thing to avoid.

That is why you make a down payment.

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Full size trucks etc. are fine as long as you do not have a $3-400 payment. Big payments plus 16mpg = financial suicide. $430+ per month an 12.5 MPG, and enjoying my truck. You are in denial.

No I ain't.

The other factor would be how many miles I drive it per year.

If you get 20 mpg and drive 12,000 miles per year

you are in better shape than

The person getting 30 mpg and driving 50,000 per year.

I am also paying for a car too.

Quoted: i love my SUV.  Its paid off and a hybrid wont tow my boat meet the needs for which I have it.

Ditto. Also, I bought it USED but in near-new shape. It (a 2000 Isuzu Trooper LS) used to go for upwards of $30K. I bought mine in 2003 with less than 20K miles on it for about half that.

I don't think I'll ever purchase a brand-new vehicle again. The loss by depreciation is simply too great. The only reason I considered one recently is because my next vehicle will be a hybrid, and I'm not comfortable buying one of those used, yet. Still, since the savings in gas wouldn't pay off the car for years, if not more than a decade, compared to my current 4-banger, I'm going to keep driving my little Civic until it dies and can't be repaired. That won't be for at least another 200K miles.

Quoted: You know how much gas you have to be using to offset the sale of a big SUV to get a small car?  Probably take you 100,000 miles to even catch up. Thats like 4-5 years for many peopple

You are forgetting to factor in the fact that all vehicles die eventually.  Not everybody is willing to spend a lot of free time keeping a vehicle alive.  As a purely math play, buying a new small car to save fuel is not wise.  However, getting a small/efficient car when replacing a a vehicle at the end if its life span is an excellent financial play.

I've got a Prius on order, rather, Toyota has 'accepted' my order.  Apparently, this means that they've matched my request to a physical vehicle, and have assigned this vehicle to my dealers alotment.  Thus, I should have it within a month.  I'm a two car guy, and I now have a 1994 GMC K1500, and a 1999 4Runner.  The '94 has been an excellent truck, but is high mileage and is on its way out (burns oil, various issues).  It will be replaced with the Prius, and I'll use the 4Runner as the 'utility' vechile instead of the commuter I've used it as in the last 8 years.  Sure, I could have purchased an 'cheaper' small car that got good mileage, but most don't have the cargo space, or appointments that I wanted.  I spend a lot of time my vehciles, so I want them to be pretty nice, an am willing to pay more for that luxury.  

Many arfcommers forget that a lot of people turn vehicles over every 3-4 years.  It's these people who are getting toasted by high fuel prices making their current vehicles not very desirable.

Guess this would be a good time to sell my Home Depot-weekend truck-1995 4 cyl. S-10 (25 mpg)

We have a 98 Tahoe and a 01 Suburban in our driveway.

Both vehicles are owned and paid for.  

If I had to make payments on them AND put expensive gas in them...  well.. then I might consider selling one of them...  but in the meantime, I'll enjoy driving a nice heavy, safe vehicle that can haul my car trailer, family and toys around.

The only changes I've made in my household to adjust for fuel prices... is to drive less.
We don't go out on joyrides to the farmers market or the ice cream store anymore.
Our vehicles don't leave the driveway unless it's driving to/from work or the grocery store.

My Yukon is paid for so I think I'll keep it !

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Full size trucks etc. are fine as long as you do not have a $3-400 payment. Big payments plus 16mpg = financial suicide. $430+ per month an 12.5 MPG, and enjoying my truck. You are in denial.

If they guy can afford it, who are any of us to question it? It's his money.

The problem is the people who CAN'T afford it, either by circumstances or stupidity (maybe both).

Quoted: Full size trucks etc. are fine as long as you do not have a $3-400 payment. Big payments plus 16mpg = financial suicide.

+1

My paid-for truck get shitty mileage but at least I don't have a payment.

Also, cars aren't investments they are transportation.  

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Full size trucks etc. are fine as long as you do not have a $3-400 payment. Big payments plus 16mpg = financial suicide. $430+ per month an 12.5 MPG, and enjoying my truck. You are in denial. If they guy can afford it, who are any of us to question it? It's his money. The problem is the people who CAN'T afford it, either by circumstances or stupidity (maybe both).

Oh, I'm affording it, and banking money every month.

Quoted: Why on Earth did you buy that vehicle in the first place?  Sounds like you were into fads when you bought that behemoth.

Why are you so concerned about how the man wants to spend HIS money?? Behemoth? It's about the same size as a Ford Explorer.

Quoted: Quoted: With the huge depreciation of some domestic models, sometimes that's a tough thing to avoid. That is why you make a down payment.

Down payment?  Fail.

This is why if you can't write a check for it, you can't afford it.  

Quoted: Oh, I'm affording it, and banking money every month.

Congrats!

Wish I could say the same.

If I had a car payment right now it would be CATASTROPHIC.

So I will get 3k less on my Z71 suburban if I trade it in?

Guess what, Im not trading it in. The only people who are getting fucked are the jackasses who couldnt afford to drive the damm things inthe first place.

Why are people so concerned about someone elses money?

We will still load the rug rats up in two weeks and make the trip to Flordia for one of our vacations. Im guessing it will cost us an extra 300.00 to take this vacation in gas.

I think we will be all right

Quoted: Quoted: Why on Earth did you buy that vehicle in the first place?  Sounds like you were into fads when you bought that behemoth. Why are you so concerned about how the man wants to spend HIS money?? Behemoth? It's about the same size as a Ford Explorer. upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/ff/Lincoln_Aviator.jpg/800px-Lincoln_Aviator.jpg

I am not.  I was merely responding to his post where he said he didn't subscribe to fads, yet it seems pretty clear he did.  Also when you buy a $40,000 luxury SUV but some how can't afford the gas, it stands to reason that he shouldn't have bought the vehicle in the first place.  Just the cold hard truth.

Quoted: I hope the same happens to the modern muscle cars as well. I'll scoop some of them up in a heartbeat and sit on them til about 2030. Also, a lot of houses are starting to look attractive now because of prices. The economy isn't going to tank as bad as the scare media is making it out to be. I see one opportunity after another and I'm sure that I'm not alone.

You won't be buying a Vette then, nobody is crying to sell. They get decent mileage if you keep your foot out of it.

I'm sure everyone loves their gas guzzling tank.  The Yukon, Tahoe, Sequoia sure their roomy, comfortable, etc.  But we all knew this was coming for years anyone that didn't was in denial.  There were and have been plenty of vehicles that gave utility and got decent mileage but noone wanted to buy them because they weren't "chic".  Where I live in Texas the large SUV was/is a bigtime status sybol.  I have to admit that now I do think many of these people were stupid and I tried to warn many people I work with but I always heard;  " I can't get rid of mah Truck!"  Everyone will be driving a Civic or Corolla eventually whether they like or not.  I own a Mazda 5 van built on a 3 chassis has third row seating, sliding side doors etc.  All of the seats lay flat for an ass load of cargo space.  Great for those trips to the range w/ all of my gear.  I drive it to work 48 miles a day 5-6 days a week and I get about 24 mpg on the commute.  On the open road it gets 28-29.  There are alternatives people just have to think outside of the box.  I spend about 180-200 per month on gas.

Quoted: I really think the whole rush to own a small car is also partly a fad.  Many people think that when people see them driving an SUV or a truck that they are some how "stupid" for driving a vehicle that sucks on gas mileage. Same reason people rushed out to buy SUV's "hey look at me, I have the money for one too" Herd mentality at work.

Yeah, I'm sure everyone will dump them and buy back their 4x4 SUVs when gas hits $5/gal next year.

It might be a herd mentality, or it might be people tired of dropping a benjie a week to fill up.  If you drive a lot (not the 10k miles a year dealers and the government estimate) you can actually make up the car payment, plus fuel costs, buying a 50+ mpg car over a 16mpg truck.