2-4 weeks?  Workers stay home?  Heck, that right there will bring the economy to a screeching halt without a terror threat at all.

I wonder how many would chance it to make the bucks they're accustomed to...I'll be a lot.

HH

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Bird-Flu Pandemic Would Likely Start in California

03.30.06, 12:00 AM ET

THURSDAY, March 30 (HealthDay News) -- If a bird-flu pandemic does hit the United States, it may well start in California and spread across the country in just two to four weeks.

And the best way to slow its spread would be to have workers stay at home.

That's the scenario drawn from results of a computer model created by researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health's Fogarty International Center. And while the results of that computer model should be interpreted with caution, it is based on data from ordinary flu epidemics for the last three decades, said study author Dr. Mark A. Miller, associate director for research at the center.

"The unique feature of this model is that it challenges conventional wisdom, which says that flu is spread by children bringing it back to the household," Miller said. "That may be true at the household level, but regionally it is spread by adults."

That's why measures to keep people at home could slow the spread of infection, Miller said. Another finding in the study is that states with large populations, such as California, are more likely to reach epidemic levels of the flu at the same time than less-populous states, where transmission tends to be more erratic, he said.

So California, the most populous state, would be the most logical place for a pandemic to start, Miller said. Another factor pointing toward California is that bird -- also called avian -- flu is expected to arrive from Asia, he said.

As for the speed of spread, the estimate is based on ordinary epidemics. "What we see is that epidemics with more pathogenic viruses spread more quickly, two to four weeks versus five to seven weeks for less pathogenic viruses nationwide," Miller said.

The findings appear in the March 31 issue of the journal Science.

The Fogarty researchers used epidemiological data on seasonal flu epidemics that have occurred yearly in the United States since 1972. They connected that information with data from the Census Bureau and the federal Department of Transportation, looking at variations in yearly epidemics from state to state and links with local flows of people to workplaces.

Bird flu is pathogenic, but it does not yet spread easily from person to person; close exposure to an infected bird is needed to cause a human infection. The danger will come when, and if, a mutation makes human-to-human transmission easy.

Since 2003, the H5N1 bird flu virus has been detected in 45 countries in Africa, Asia, and Europe. More than 100 people have died after coming into contact with infected poultry.

The model developed by the Fogarty researchers can go just so far in predicting what might happen if such a mutation occurs, Miller said. This model notably doesn't include previous pandemics, just ordinary epidemics, and a pandemic might have different characteristics, he said.

Still, the model can help plan for ordinary, predictable epidemics by showing how they start and spread, Miller said. It's also not the first of its kind, he said: "We did a similar model to explain the spread of measles."

have a link?

Quoted: have a link?

No...I made it up.



www.forbes.com/lifestyle/health/feeds/hscout/2006/03/30/hscout531827.html

HH

Quoted: 2-4 weeks?  Workers stay home?  Heck, that right there will bring the economy to a screeching halt without a terror threat at all. I wonder how many would chance it to make the bucks they're accustomed to...I'll be a lot. HH And the best way to slow its spread would be to have workers stay at home.

I can completely get behind THAT!  Especially so, if it stops the flu.  

That is, IF and when it goes from human to human.  

So maybe Bush did create the bid-flu after all.  Dang that guy is smart.   Katrina takes out NOLA, Bird flu takes out Cali, now we need a Nor-easterner like no other to hit s few select states over there.

G   O  O  D   !

I'm pretty sick of this bird flu junk.

Interesting fact: I misspelled 6 of the above 8 words as I was typing them.

Quoted: Quoted: have a link? No...I made it up. www.forbes.com/lifestyle/health/feeds/hscout/2006/03/30/hscout531827.html HH

LOL, I am asking as it is easier to send direct links to non arf.comers.  Thanks for the reply!

No surprise here, it's what I expected all along.

I suppose it is possible it could get going anywhere for a varitey of reasons but Kali is where the smart money would go.

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: have a link? No...I made it up. www.forbes.com/lifestyle/health/feeds/hscout/2006/03/30/hscout531827.html HH LOL, I am asking as it is easier to send direct links to non arf.comers.  Thanks for the reply!

I was just playin' with ya, JC!



HH

Quoted: Quoted: 2-4 weeks?  Workers stay home?  Heck, that right there will bring the economy to a screeching halt without a terror threat at all. I wonder how many would chance it to make the bucks they're accustomed to...I'll be a lot. HH And the best way to slow its spread would be to have workers stay at home. I can completely get behind THAT!  Especially so, if it stops the flu.   That is, IF and when it goes from human to human.

Mike, at what point do companies order their people back to work?  And WHEN will those people go BACK to work?

I'd say the econony-Wall Street in particular-will suffer major losses.  It'd be a catastrophe.

HH

Migration patterns tend towards Alaska... Canada is the likely cantidate.

If reporters spent half the time they spend reporting, on research - things would be alot cooler.

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: 2-4 weeks?  Workers stay home?  Heck, that right there will bring the economy to a screeching halt without a terror threat at all. I wonder how many would chance it to make the bucks they're accustomed to...I'll be a lot. HH And the best way to slow its spread would be to have workers stay at home. I can completely get behind THAT!  Especially so, if it stops the flu.   That is, IF and when it goes from human to human.   Mike, at what point do companies order their people back to work?  And WHEN will those people go BACK to work? I'd say the econony-Wall Street in particular-will suffer major losses.  It'd be a catastrophe. HH

Well, to be honest, my tongue was partially in my cheek.  And to be fair, I was partly being honest.

When do workers go back to work?  When they are healthy, and not before.

If you are worried about Wall Street's losses if workers stay home for a few weeks, consider Wall Street's losses if they do not and 10% of the population DIES and 90% of the population is sick.  Consider the ability of many/most of us to work from home via computer and telephone, albeit at lower efficieny.  Compare that reduced efficiency to now output at all if we are all ill.

Like I said, I can support staying home to slow/stem/stop the spread of the bird flu.  I could even argue that failure to do so is suicidal, or worse, just plain stupid (from a business perspective, of course).

Well, we know how much those crazy mexicans love to eat chicken...

Maybe the bird flu will kill a couple of million of them, because there is no strength left in the American character to deport them.

So maybe that disease will save our country

I would guess Vancouver and San Francisco first. Lots of Chinese coming and going every day.

Quoted: I would guess Vancouver and San Francisco first. Lots of Chinese coming and going every day.

It's all a conspiracy.  This guy named General Tso is running a chicken farm, and is weaponizing the virus.  It will be spread through the food chain. Symptoms will start with a very full feeling only to be replaced by feelings of hunger a short time later.  Sometimes you will be very thirsty hours following ingestion; some have experienced headaches from a pathogen known as MSG.  The delivery method has proven very effective and has lured victims in to known production facilities.  The production facilities are also know to deploy carriers utilizing low tech methods of delivery such as bicyle mounted troops.  General Tso's chicken experiment has been prooven to be deployed nationwide.