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Posted: 3/20/2006 11:21:27 PM EDT
The Sino-Russian superpower
By Edward Lanfranco Mar 20, 2006, 21:18 GMT BEIJING, China (UPI) -- Vladimir Putin`s trip to Beijing Tuesday for the opening ceremony of the 'Year of Russia in China' is a key evolution in the geopolitical economy America faces. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union 15 years ago, neither Russia nor China by itself could effectively compete with the United States. Besides its military and economic might, the soft power projection of U.S. culture, and a widespread perception abroad as a force for good, made America a Teflon-coated colossus. The alliance began when presidents Jiang Zemin and Boris Yeltsin, leaders of unsavory regimes trying to keep respective lids on domestic discontent, ran scared into each others` arms and forged a 'strategic partnership of cooperation' in 1996 as a form of mutual support. The momentum of ex-empires looking for ways to maintain control over restive territories hearkens back to China`s Qing and Russia`s Romanov dynasties when the two first met in the 17th century. A plethora of officials from both sides have averred that the alliance is 'not directed against any third country,' since its inception. However one would have to live in denial to not see the tangible benefits that accrue to China and Russia acting in concert as a strategic counterweight to the U.S. At the same time one of the primary objectives stated in the Sino-Russian alliance is to promote the creation of a multi-polar world, meaning America shares the limelight rather than act as the unilateralist starring role. Policymakers in Washington grapple with trying to figure out how to deal with China`s rise and Russia`s role helping both its neighbor and ultimately itself to regain respect competing with the U.S. Putin`s stay in Beijing contains several tripwires to watch as the 'strategic partnership of cooperation' enters its second decade. Most analysts will be surprised if a true sea change agreement to the status quo is publicly achieved any the following areas. Number one on everyone`s radar screen is energy. The question here is mutual commitment to pipeline construction that culminates in a deal. Last week Russia`s ambassador to China promised his country would ship 15 million tons of crude oil in 2006, slightly more than a tenth of the PRC`s needs by imports in 2005. Transneft and China National Petroleum Corporation have talks underway, but finalization depends on several factors: the point where the pipeline crosses the Chinese border; estimated construction time; the volume of crude at capacity once completed; and most importantly, financing. Russia has kept China dangling on tenterhooks for years over sealing this strategic deal. If Putin and his people call for more 'research' citing environmental or scope of the scheme reasons, it means China still needs to sweeten the pot. The next area to look for anything significant in Sino-Russian cooperation is with ongoing nuclear diplomacy. China and Russia have long fuelled North Korean and Iranian nuclear ambitions. Both countries have pocketed myopic profits in deals boosted by technical training which had application beyond peaceful energy purposes. This issue illustrates equal partnership component of the Sino-Russian partnership quite well. Russia takes the lead on Iran with China`s support. The roles are reversed with North Korea as China assumes the dominant role with Russia happily takes a secondary stance. One area to watch where both countries` penchant for imperfect transparency will be apparent is military cooperation. In 2005 China and Russia held groundbreaking joint military exercises. Their defense ministers spun the event as efforts to combat terrorism. Most defense analysts view it as China taking new weapons systems for a test drive, not unlike when one drives a car out of the dealers` showroom. The PRC only has one source for sophisticated military hardware: Russia. Europe and the U.S. have embargoed China since it turned army guns against its own people in 1989. There are plenty of other facets in the long-standing Sino-Russian relationship worth keeping an eye on: movement for new membership on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization which China sponsors in Central Asia (and Russia is in); any joint statement regarding Japan, a country both have territorial disputes with mired in history; plus anything mentioning greater bilateral trade that doesn`t involve Russia sending more natural resources to China. China, despite rhetorical claims to the contrary, waits in the wings gagging to regain its historical position as the predominant power on the planet. The PRC`s nervous Communist leadership sees its survival as the ruling party predicated on an ability to combine cheap quiescent labor, continued infusion of unquestioning foreign capital, and newfound nationalist ideology based on exploiting resources (human and natural) with a view towards 'scientific development.' While China continues to claim leadership of the third world as a developing country, it is a nation with priorities and enough wealth to afford a manned space program. Russia`s partnership with the U.S. leads many to wonder what it shares with China, and at what price. At the end of the day Putin is the one facing the most delicate balancing act. China wants to challenge the United States for pre-eminence on the planet, but after Mongolia, Russian territory is the final frontier. Lenin once said that capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them; Russia might ultimately confront this same question in their partnership with the Chinese. Copyright 2006 by United Press International http://news.monstersandcritics.com/asiapacific/article_1148704.php/The_Sino-Russian_superpower |
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They dont like each other. Insofar they do, China like Russia weapons, Russia likes China's money.
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After china gets what it wants from Russia then what? That will be when things get intresting.
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This reminds me of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact between the USSR and Nazi Germany. I reckon that this one will end MUCH worse. Neither side had nukes back then
Russia just doesn't get it. |
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I agree. |
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Oh I don't know so much… Russia wants to be the big kid on the block in Europe… China wants to be the big player in the Pacific Rim… Mutually beneficial to both sides to put a split in spheres of influence in place. ANdy |
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OMG! It's the commies all over again! quick learn 'duck and cover' again! quick pump out hollywood reels about the 'yellow peril' and the 'red menace', dominoes i tells ya! dominoes! I never liked the idea of fighting "islamic terrorists" anyway. Now the commies, THAT was an enemy! I actually kinda missed 'em Come back stalin, come back! come back now and we'll even give you Mexico and Japan as "soviet satelites"! Red dawn baby, red dawn! Without the "evil empire" we reaganites got nutin'. We spent billions on missle defense only to get knocked in the balls by some dickheads with box cutters (boy was our face red). Why oh why did you let us down?? Crying about how Liberals and Cuba are "commies" just does'nt have the same fear factor effect that it had before on the sheeple! orders placed on my conservative book club "anti-commie" books have plunged, now everyone wants to know about Saw-die ay-raabia. you go through all the time and trouble to write a 10000 page book about the evil of Sino-Soviet domination and ya get the rug pulled out from under ya! please come back, Please!
Love always, t-stox. |
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Pentagon would sure like them to get together. Would get us more F22s.............
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yep, a new & significant long term alliance against the U.S. , |
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So you're thinking more along the lines of an Axis then? Given that China has nothing that Russia wants, bar money, and that Russia has everything that China wants, what happens when the marriage of convienience breaks down. These guys hate each other, and couldn't even get along when they were on the same ideological page. Sure its mutually beneficial for them to work together, but I give it about as much chance of success as I do France and Germany, or maybe France and Britain living inder the same roof. |
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Where have we heard that before? Japan had the "Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere" & I can't remember what the Nazi hemisphere was going to be called. |
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You read my mind. Not kidding. TRG |
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The Chicoms and the Soviets always hated eachother, and Mao was a major-league asshole to Khrushchev.
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So ... what would you have us do? Just sit on our hands and wait until someone (Russia or China, or both...) decides we are taking up too many resources (oil for example) and decide to • invade an oil-rich nation and appropriate it all for themselves, or • nuke the US preemptively to keep us out of their affairs (see first bullet), or... • both You MUST think 10 and even 20 years ahead strategically. Even if it comes out to be totally wrong... If you don't think Russia and China are thinking that far ahead, you are sadly mistaken. By way of allegory, Russians are chess players... they're thinking not one or two moves ahead, but five or more moves ahead. |
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Indeed, you are right, and IMHO that is all the more reason why they would want such an 'arrangement'. Yes, they are idealogically oppossed, but I see this as more of a means of keeping each other busy mischief making in their own spheres and avaoiding any 'upleasantness' between them until it suites them. ANdy |
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Thank goodness someone gets it. |
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So your timeline would be Russia and China make friends Russia and China make trouble One or the other partner decides that "unpleasantness" suits them and makes trouble with the other I would vote on China making trouble with Russia. Like I said, sounds like Molotov-Ribbentrop all over again, this time with canned sunshine. |
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Recommended (fictional) reading on this topic: Tom Clancy's "The Bear And The Dragon"
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Have you been watching deep space 9 reruns?? What are they? the new dominion? I just dont buy this whole "fighting yesterdays battles" thing. The most that Russia and China represent is econmic cooperation, CAPITALIST style! China is People rich, resource poor, Russia is people poor (sort of, they have a declining birth rate and a low density ratio) but resource rich. But i dont see them in any way threatening our geo-political plans, more so now that i belive that Muslim Coutries are the threat now NOT china or Russia. In fact a "tri-partitie" Axis of the US, China and Russia against Islamic theocracy is virtually undefeatable. I'd like to include Europe in that pact but they are useless talk-o-crats. The only thing i dont like about China is thier hogging up of a lot of resources but they have that right! to piss them off for buying too much oil and copper will only make things bad and for what? WE've been hogs for a long time too. Now we know how it feels. In fact both China and Russia historically (1776-1945) have always been 'For' the US, or at least have been at odds with the same people that we are at odds with now (muslims), they are a natural ally, Saudi arabia and pakistan ARE NOT! Then you gotta throw India into the mix, Bush visting them to cement "agreements" was the best thing he could do. Again they are a natural ally against Islamic expansionism. This is a scenario we have to consider in the future in which a Indo-Russo-Sino pact (<-- hey you like that wording? i just made it up) would become inevitable. Here it is, #1 the US and Isreal do nothing about Iran and she gets the bomb. All the appeasers thought she would act "reasonable" once she got it and would take "M.A.D" serious enough, but she does'nt, she Begins saying that the palis must have the right of return or ELSE, The Shiite in the South of Lebanon suddenly have "uber rockets" (supplied by iran) and begin lobbing them into Isreal, Isreal retaliates BUT Iran says that if one IDF soldier steps foot on "soverign Lebanese soil" they will nuke Tel aviv. In iraq The shia Militia begin attacking US troops with Iranian intel officers behind it. Iran calls for withdrawal of us immediatly. What can we do about it? nothing. And finally, a resurgent Taliban manages to assassinate Musharref, riots erupt all over pakistan led by radical Imams, They manage to sieze power! Now a new taliban govt in pakistan revokes all agreements with the US calling them "satan". They will no longer aid us in the GWOT. Although they deny it, it seems that Osama bin laden is alive and well in pakistan and because the paki army is now taliban controlled they leave him alone, he begins setting up all new terror camps in Pakistan. The US can do nothing because Pakistan has the bomb. These new camps train fighters who end up in Afghanistan. Pakistan turns to India and makes demands that Kashmir be turned over to them OR else! The also ebgin flooding terrorists into India to attack for kashmir. With Pakistan and Iran as belligerent islamic nuclear powers the shit truly will hit the fan, we'll need friends and not act unilaterally like some neo-con idiot. |
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that is scary plausible |
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Russia NEEDS all that disposable income China has & Russia has plenty of oil, gas, metals, & weapons technology to sell |
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I think it's as simple as "keep your friends close.... but your enemies closer."
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Sure, I agree with that. However, what happens when Russia decides that China is becomming too powerful, and decides to limit the sale of those resources or weapons for geopolitical reasons? The Russians and the Chinese, but especially the Russians, are creatures of politics, not profit. Sure, they like money, but power is much more important. How happy do you think Russia will be with a giant, prosperous, well-armed historical enemy right next door who's eyes are looking for opportunities both East and West? What will China do when told "no"? |
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Interesting assessments. Thanks for keeping it civil as well. I agree with you for the most part. I just see things stacking up a little differently than you do. Frankly I hope you're right. |
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