Good timing! I'm sure this will ahve a lot of the "end of the mayan calendar" types freaking out.Damnit, misread the year.


www.newscientistspace.com/article.n...line-news_rss20


New asteroid at top of Earth-threat list

   * 11:52 01 March 2006
   * NewScientist.com news service
   * Kimm Groshong

Asteroid 951 Gaspra was the first to be examined close up, by the Galileo spacecraft on 29 October 1991 – it is just 19 kilometres long (Image: NASA)
Enlarge image
Asteroid 951 Gaspra was the first to be examined close up, by the Galileo spacecraft on 29 October 1991 – it is just 19 kilometres long (Image: NASA)

Observations by astronomers tracking near-Earth asteroids have raised a new object to the top of the Earth-threat list.

The asteroid could strike the Earth in 2102. However, Don Yeomans, manager of NASA's Near Earth Object Program at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, US, told New Scientist: "The most likely situation, by far, is that additional observations will bring it back down to a zero."

He adds: "We're more likely to be hit between now and then by an object that we don't know about."

On 23 February, new observations allowed researchers to more accurately calculate the orbit of the asteroid, named 2004 VD17, which was originally detected by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's LINEAR project. Since the improvement did not rule out a potential collision with the Earth on 4 May 2102, they increased the asteroid's rating to level 2 on the Torino Scale, a relatively rare event.
Degrees of danger

The Torino Scale, adopted in 1999, is akin to a Richter scale for asteroid impacts. The vast majority of the 4000 or so near-Earth objects (NEOs) detected so far have been assigned to level zero on the Torino scale, meaning they have "no likely consequences".

Level 1, colour-coded green, suggests a possible impact that "merits careful monitoring". Beyond that, the risk continues to rise along the scale – levels 2, 3 and 4 are yellow; 5, 6 and 7 are orange; while 8, 9 and 10 earn red.

The highest level ever reached by an asteroid was level 4 by Apophis (2004 MN4) in December 2004, but subsequent calculations downgraded that concern to a level 1. So VD17 currently claims the top spot on NASA's online list of potential asteroid impacts.

Despite the rarity of the yellow designation, Yeomans says "Torino 2 is not very alarming." He notes that the scale does not take account of how soon an impact may occur, unlike its rival, the Palermo Scale.

Based on current observations, he says the asteroid has a 1 in 1600 chance of striking the Earth in 2102 and a 1 in 500,000 chance of hitting two years later. But further observations will soon refine the orbit calculation for VD17 – and hopefully ease minds.

NEO hunter, Andrea Milani Comparetti of the University of Pisa, Italy, says VD17 "is a serious problem, but not for our generation". He also notes that VD17 is dim and distant and is not projected to pass close by the Earth before 2102. "You will need fairly powerful telescopes to see it before it arrives," he told New Scientist.
Smaller threats

Since 1998, NASA has had a US Congressional mandate to locate 90% of all NEOs of 1 kilometre or larger by 2008. Yeomans says that 830 out of a predicted 1100 have been found so far, along with thousands of smaller objects.

In the NASA Authorization Act of 2005, Congress directed the space agency to study and report back on the best way to cost-effectively locate 90% of all asteroids down to a diameter of just 140 metres. Yeomans says there are likely to be about 100,000 such NEOs.

Yeomans and Bill Bottke of the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colorado, were both members of a team that reported in 2003 that a survey to locate such small asteroids would be cost-effective, considering the damage an impact could cause. Bottke says the group found that to find 90% of the remaining hazard would cost roughly $300 million.

2004 VD17 is estimated to have a diameter of about 580 metres. An asteroid of that size would produce an impact crater about 10 kilometres wide and an earthquake of magnitude 7.4 if it struck land.

with my luck it'll be burned down to the size of a pea entering the atmospher and hit me right on the head.

Dude Sir, the year in your title is way off...


- BG

EDIT:  Taken care of.  

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2102 dude sir.

So are we all going to die in 2102 or 2012?  

Sweet!  That means we don't have to take care of the environment anymore!!!

Ahhh damn it ...

Reading comprehension is not working ... I read what I wanted to read.

This is like DUPE but not really.

We've been down this road before not more then a couple of years ago.

My underground bunker will be completed and stocked by 2010, so I'm ok.

ETA: Ah, I read 2012 at first.

Rae oyu lysdexic?

Quoted: ETA: Ah, I read 2012 at first.

Looks like I'm not the only one  who thinks it would be kind of cool to see the end of the world.

One thing that irks me is how we will spend BILLIONS for fucking debit cards and hotel stays for Katrina victims, but NASA has to struggle with a tiny budget for this study.

Quoted: Rae oyu lysdexic?

Apparently when typing. I have a bad habit of flipping teh order of letters around.

Someone call Bruce Willis, Ben Afleck, and that hobbit guy.

Quoted: Quoted: ETA: Ah, I read 2012 at first. Looks like I'm not the only one  who thinks it would be kind of cool to see the end of the world.

Think it would be cool? What do you think I bought all this ammo for?

Quoted: Someone call Bruce Willis, Ben Afleck, and that hobbit guy.

No. We'll send Mexicans. They will destroy the asteroids we are too lazy to destroy.

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: ETA: Ah, I read 2012 at first. Looks like I'm not the only one  who thinks it would be kind of cool to see the end of the world. Think it would be cool? What do you think I bought all this ammo for?

To fend off the bands of insane religeos zealot cannibal zombies who will roam the earth after the hammer falls?

2112 would make sense.

Quoted: Quoted: ETA: Ah, I read 2012 at first. Looks like I'm not the only one  who thinks it would be kind of cool to see the end of the world.

Think of it as the ultimate pickup line:

"Hey baby, the world is coming to the end and I have a fully stocked bunker to keep me and a few special people alive and safe. Lucky for you I think you're special."

Quoted: Quoted: Someone call Bruce Willis, Ben Afleck, and that hobbit guy. No. We'll send Mexicans. They will destroy the asteroids we are too lazy to destroy.

That'd never work.  We need to send up a probe and have it carve an insulting image of the prophet mohammed on it.  The rest should take care of itself.

2102, dont know bout you but I'll still be here.

Oh well, not going to be my problem I'll be dead by then. ahhahahahahahhahahhaha

Fox News Neureal Net Report, May 43rd 2114, New Avalon, Mars

Today marked the close passage of the Silicate type asteroid Asteroid 951 Gaspra to Earth, passing within Lunar orbit. This asteroid would have struck Earth if left uninterupted, but the discovery of stratigic platnium group metals on it by LockMinerals in 2032 and the subsequent mining of metals and volitiles from the asteroid has disrupted aproximently 5% of it's masss, it's orbit was slightly altered by this and then again in 2072 when pulse fusion rockets were used to slightly change it's obit so that it reached farther into the main belt to allow for easier transit of goods from the growing gold rush towns on Ceres.

Talks continue between the Free Mars movement and the United States in New Avalon today as the buy out of Mars by it's local inhabitants continue. The United States is arguing for compensation of the full asset and real estate value of Mars while Free Mars is arguing for simply repaying exploration and colinization expense +10%.

First child born in an off world colony turns 75 today, Virginia Dare Armstrong of Port Clarke, Mars is continuing her ground breaking research in automated nano-medical diagnostics. Her early work led to the now famous (or infamous) work on sybiotic genome repair and telemerase fixing, the so called aging vacine. Asked about her current plans she said, "Mars used to be the frontier and now there are 30 million people living here, I'm currently signed up to go into cold sleep next year and leave on the Conestoga to start the Epsilon Erandi colony".

Surviors in the former United Nations province of North Western Europe again claimed today to their US military govenor that the denial of Europeans and other former UN citizens of emigration to the colony worlds is a violation of the treaty of Liverpool which ended the soverignty war 35 years ago. In other European news radiation levels in Paris have fallen enough that there are once again people living in the city of lights.

Won't matter...we won't be here after December 21st, 2012.

all the protection I need for random comet strikes

i'll have been dead for 20 or so some odd years already so doesn't bother me one bit...

Quoted: Won't matter...we won't be here after December 21st, 2012.

Ok I'll bite, what going to happen?

end of myan calander,  or plante X one of the 2.

Ronald

Quoted: with my luck it'll be burned down to the size of a pea entering the atmospher and hit me right on the head.

That's the size of a Chiuaua's head.

Quoted: ETA: Ah, I read 2012 at first.

Yo tambien.

So was the date 19 kilometers ?

So what do you guys think is the best cartridge to use against one of these?

Quoted: So what do you guys think is the best cartridge to use against one of these?

A hot-loaded Barrett .50 will knock it out of its current orbit easily.

The ultimate SHTF, worse than zombies on crack!

Quoted: Quoted: Won't matter...we won't be here after December 21st, 2012. Ok I'll bite, what going to happen?

End of the Universe.

Quoted: www.newscientistspace.com/article.n...line-news_rss20 New asteroid at top of Earth-threat list    * 11:52 01 March 2006    * NewScientist.com news service    * Kimm Groshong <Snip> He adds: "We're more likely to be hit between now and then by an object that we don't know about."

Yup.  If it comes from the direction of the sun we're fucked.  No advance warning at all, not that it would matter anyway.

OMG.    

I better get my will updated.    

96 to 106 years will be here before you know it.    




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Well....I'll be dead by then, so who cares?

Well...not to hijack the thread...but what do you think would really happen if we came to find an astroid that will hit the earth at, say, 9:17:06 july 16th 2012 and there isn't anything we can do to stop it? It will destroy the Earth.

Now that we know the precise second of our demise...what do you think would happen?

Quoted: Well....I'll be dead by then, so who cares?

You aren't selfish at all.

Quoted: Quoted: Well....I'll be dead by then, so who cares? You aren't selfish at all.

Nope.....not my problem to worry about...I mean, shit, we're talkin 90+ years from now...By then, who's to say that Hadji hasn't already blown up the Earth?

Quoted: Well...not to hijack the thread...but what do you think would really happen if we came to find an astroid that will hit the earth at, say, 9:17:06 july 16th 2012 and there isn't anything we can do to stop it? It will destroy the Earth. Now that we know the precise second of our demise...what do you think would happen?

Already have this figured out.

1. Have sex with Traci Lords.

Just wake me up when it is time to start looting, ok?

"ALL WE ARE IS DUST IN THE WIND........
DUST IN THE WIND,
ALL WE AR IS DUST IN THE WIND......"

Quoted: Well...not to hijack the thread...but what do you think would really happen if we came to find an astroid that will hit the earth at, say, 9:17:06 july 16th 2012 and there isn't anything we can do to stop it? It will destroy the Earth. Now that we know the precise second of our demise...what do you think would happen?

We retain the ACLU to sue the asteroid for future violation of our civil rights?

So the mayans just made a typo in thier calander?

Quoted: So the mayans just made a typo in thier calander?

Woot!!!! I'll be worm shit.

Quoted: Quoted: with my luck it'll be burned down to the size of a pea entering the atmospher and hit me right on the head. That's the size of a Chiuaua's head.

Chihuahua

We'll get hit by something evnetually and I doubt we'll even know it is coming.  Odds are the .gov might know a day or two in advance and will tell us nothing.

That's my take on it.