Report Warns of Chinese Military Machine    www.newsmax.com/scripts/printer_friendly.pl?s=pf&page=www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2005/12/18/130057.shtml
www.softwar.net/
   Charles R. Smith
   Monday, Dec. 19, 2005

China Will Fight for 'Living' Space

According to a recently released report from a top-level Washington think tank, China plans to win a war over Taiwan within a week.

"PLA authorities have pledged that they can capture Taiwan within seven days," states the report.

The report, "China's Great Leap Forward," published by the Hudson Institute, outlines a chilling view of China's evolving "military juggernaut."

There are many in Washington who believe that the Chinese leadership will not engage in active combat for fear of losing trade dollars and ruin the scheduled Olympic games in Beijing.

In contrast, the report is filled with quotes from top-level Chinese officials that have not been published in the U.S. mass media. For example, Chinese President Hu Jintao, often viewed in the Western press as a moderate in PRC politics, is clearly cited as confident that waging war in the Pacific will not affect China's global trade.

According to General Secretary Hu Jintao, "We believe that the war will not obstruct the holding of the 2008 Olympic Games."

The Hudson report outlines a terrifying scenario of a Chinese invasion force landing "between 200,000 and 400,000 troops" on Taiwan. The Chinese air force (PLAAF) will then use "mammoth forces" to overwhelm Taiwan's small air forces. The PLAAF will mobilize 3,000 aircraft to "annihilate" Taiwan's air defenses.

"We must capture Taiwan, even if that means we have to sacrifice the lives of tens of thousands of soldiers!" notes the report, quoting an unnamed Chinese general.

Reunification of the Motherland

Beijing is solidly on the path of forcing Taiwan to "return to the Motherland" even if it means war with the United States. The Hudson Institute report concludes that the Chinese military is not afraid to fight America.

"Beijing is also prepared to fight the United States if such a confrontation proves unavoidable. The PLA [People's Liberation Army] will mobilize its destroyers equipped with SSN-22 anti-ship cruise missiles, Kilo-class submarines, and Chinese Aegis warships to clash with the Seventh Fleet, and will use information warfare to destroy U.S. satellites and command-and-control systems," states the Hudson report.

The conclusions of the Hudson report mirror statements issued by the Chinese army that trade and economic growth are secondary issues. According to an official report by the CMC (Central Military Command), China is confident that it must overwhelm Taiwan and deal with American military forces within the next few years.

"Taking into account of possible intervention by the U.S. and based on the development strategy of our country, it is better to fight now than future – the earlier, the better. The reason being that, if worst comes to worst, we will gain control of Taiwan before full deployment of the U.S. troops. In this case, the only thing the U.S. can do is fighting a war with the purpose of retaliation, which will be similar to the Gulf War against Iraq or the recent bombing of Yugoslavia," notes the Chinese army report.

The Chinese army also makes it clear that it has fought U.S. forces before and prevailed. According to the PLA report, the "strategic superiority" of the U.S. military forces has not been tested in a war against a large country.

"In contrast, using the Vietnamese War as an example, our forces do have the experience of fighting the U.S. forces under modern warfare conditions. In that war, the Chinese forces were mainly responsible for air defense and accumulated a whole set of experience in this regard," notes the Chinese army report.

The Chinese leadership is also confident about fighting a nuclear war with America. The Chinese military makes it clear that it is willing to go to nuclear war with America.

"In comparison with the U.S. nuclear arsenal, our disadvantage is mainly numeric, while in real wars the qualitative gap will be reflected only as different requirements of strategic theory. In terms of deterrence, there is not any difference in practical value. So far we have built up the capability for the second and the third nuclear strikes and are fairly confident in fighting a nuclear war. The PCC has decided to pass through formal channels this message to the top leaders of the U.S."

War With Russia

The Hudson report also notes that Washington and Taipei are not alone in worrying about the emergence of Chinese global military power. Recent events inside Moscow show growing concern inside the Kremlin about the monster on Russia's eastern border. Russian military experts now warn, "Thanks to Russia, Chinese military might is growing even faster than its economic might."

"According to General-Major V. Slipchenko, the ultimate goal of Chinese military reform consists in the creation of a military establishment that guarantees 'living space' within 'strategic borders.'

These 'strategic borders' must shift according to the expansion of China's Integrated State Power, the primary components of which are economic and military might," warns the Hudson report.

"Nor should it be forgotten that China's geopolitics as formulated by Mao gave priority to expanding the country's borders, especially by annexing Russian territories," states the report.

"According to Russian military scientists, the process of settling Chinese people in the Far East is proceeding almost unchecked. Even now it is acquiring a massive character which creates the preconditions for a conflict situation and the use of force."

"In January 2005, General-Lieutenant V.I. Ostankov, director of the General Staffs Military-Strategic Studies Center, warned that the strengthening of China's economic might and its growing population require tremendous resources. Because the repository of the world's natural resources has already been divided up, it seems logical that the vector of Chinese expansion will be directed toward the abutting regions of Russia (above all, Siberia and the Far East) as well as of Kazakhstan and other countries of Central Asia."

"Some Russian analysts have gone so far as to charge that Russian nuclear weapons are in fact a 'non-deterrent' against China. The Chinese leadership is said to be willing to sacrifice 'hordes' of its citizens in pursuit of its geostrategic objectives," concludes the Hudson report.

"Some Russian analysts have gone so far as to charge that Russian nuclear weapons are in fact a 'non-deterrent' against China. The Chinese leadership is said to be willing to sacrifice 'hordes' of its citizens in pursuit of its geostrategic objectives," concludes the Hudson report.

Hooray for freedom of the press.  Do these "hordes" know they're about to be sacrificed?

Quoted: Report Warns of Chinese Military Machine    www.newsmax.com/scripts/printer_friendly.pl?s=pf&page=www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2005/12/18/130057.shtml    Charles R. Smith    Monday, Dec. 19, 2005 China Will Fight for 'Living' Space According to a recently released report from a top-level Washington think tank, China plans to win a war over Taiwan within a week. <snip> " According to General Secretary Hu Jintao, "We believe that the war will not obstruct the holding of the 2008 Olympic Games." <snip>

"A" war or "the" war?  "Would" or "will"?

Of course, there is the small matter of oil tankers going through the Indian Ocean, or the Straits of Molucca.  Don'tt the Indians have some sort of historical "difference of opinion" with the Chinese over some territory?  Pipelines from Russia?  What just happened in the Ukraine?

The Chinese leadership is also confident about fighting a nuclear war with America. The Chinese military makes it clear that it is willing to go to nuclear war with America.

for those who skimmed it.

Quoted: Quoted: Report Warns of Chinese Military Machine    www.newsmax.com/scripts/printer_friendly.pl?s=pf&page=www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2005/12/18/130057.shtml    Charles R. Smith    Monday, Dec. 19, 2005 China Will Fight for 'Living' Space According to a recently released report from a top-level Washington think tank, China plans to win a war over Taiwan within a week. <snip> " According to General Secretary Hu Jintao, "We believe that the war will not obstruct the holding of the 2008 Olympic Games." <snip> "A" war or "the" war?  "Would" or "will"? Of course, there is the small matter of oil tankers going through the Indian Ocean, or the Straits of Molucca.  Don'tt the Indians have some sort of historical "difference of opinion" with the Chinese over some territory?  Pipelines from Russia?  What just happened in the Ukraine?

According to General Secretary Hu Jintao, "We believe that the war will not obstruct the

I would say it says "the war"

Whats with all this "tough talk" from China, Iran, Venezuela, etc.

A lot of countries are sure flexing their muscles lately....anytime now there's gonna be a BIG problem.

I'm guessing May.

HH

Quoted: A lot of countries are sure flexing their muscles lately....anytime now there's gonna be a BIG problem. I'm guessing May. HH

Its coming whether we like it or not.

Quoted: Whats with all this "tough talk" from China, Iran, Venezuela, etc.

the top dog always gets tested from time to time.

I don't believe even the Chinese could absorb a massive nuclear strike from the Russians.  Depending on where and the height (or lack there of) and the pervailing winds, what the blasts didn't kill, the radiation/fallout will do the rest.   Given how densely packed the Chinese population is, the effects would be devastating and that is an understatement.

Quoted: Whats with all this "tough talk" from China, Iran, Venezuela, etc.

there is no crystal ball in politics...let's wait and die.

Quoted: Quoted: A lot of countries are sure flexing their muscles lately....anytime now there's gonna be a BIG problem. I'm guessing May. HH Its coming whether we like it or not.

I understand very clearly what you're saying...my guess is that the May-timeframe is when I'm thinking it's all going to start.

HH

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: A lot of countries are sure flexing their muscles lately....anytime now there's gonna be a BIG problem. I'm guessing May. HH Its coming whether we like it or not. I understand very clearly what you're saying...my guess is that the May-timeframe is when I'm thinking it's all going to start. HH

What is the significance of May?

"We believe that the war will not obstruct the holding of the 2008 Olympic Games."

Glad to see that we will be at war with China within the next year.

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: A lot of countries are sure flexing their muscles lately....anytime now there's gonna be a BIG problem. I'm guessing May. HH Its coming whether we like it or not. I understand very clearly what you're saying...my guess is that the May-timeframe is when I'm thinking it's all going to start. HH What is the significance of May?

None that I know of...just a hunch that all heck's going to break loose, and I give it until May.

That's all.

HH

Who cares? There are uniform regulations to change and sensitivity programs to implement.

Where did this article make any references whatsoever to "buying cheap Chinese junk"?

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Report Warns of Chinese Military Machine    www.newsmax.com/scripts/printer_friendly.pl?s=pf&page=www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2005/12/18/130057.shtml    Charles R. Smith    Monday, Dec. 19, 2005 China Will Fight for 'Living' Space According to a recently released report from a top-level Washington think tank, China plans to win a war over Taiwan within a week. <snip> " According to General Secretary Hu Jintao, "We believe that the war will not obstruct the holding of the 2008 Olympic Games." <snip> "A" war or "the" war?  "Would" or "will"? Of course, there is the small matter of oil tankers going through the Indian Ocean, or the Straits of Molucca.  Don'tt the Indians have some sort of historical "difference of opinion" with the Chinese over some territory?  Pipelines from Russia?  What just happened in the Ukraine? According to General Secretary Hu Jintao, "We believe that the war will not obstruct the I would say it says "the war"

That was the point.  

One issue might be will vs. would since the Chinese language is a bit odd with tenses.  But, I don't think it makes much difference since the intent is clear.

I pray for war with somebody, Id rather go anywhere than Iraq, just cause I dont like going the same place twice.  China or bust!

"In January 2005, General-Lieutenant V.I. Ostankov, director of the General Staffs Military-Strategic Studies Center, warned that the strengthening of China's economic might and its growing population require tremendous resources. Because the repository of the world's natural resources has already been divided up, it seems logical that the vector of Chinese expansion will be directed toward the abutting regions of Russia (above all, Siberia and the Far East) as well as of Kazakhstan and other countries of Central Asia."

This is what China wants from Russia - Siberia, for its largely untapped oil supply.

China will play Russia off us, us off Russia, talk and deal with our enemies and confound our allies in the region.  If they can get what they want through intimidation or through the fear of lost trade revenues, fine, they'll take it.

But the Chinese are very patient.  They are also very smart in their planning.  They will determine every weakness and every strength we posses and act accordingly.  The sad fact is they will do it with American and Russian technology - all bought for a price.

In the end, we, or the US and Russia, will prevail.  But it will probably be the nastiest thing the earth has ever seen.

Anyone else think that this might all be just "big talk"?

The Chinese economy is chugging along pretty well, and I dont' think they want to disrupt that right now.

I mean, they've talked tough in the past right? Why would now be any different?

I will believe it when I see it.
Why would China's leaders risk nuclear war to get oil they can buy easily?

Japan went to war because of an American oil embargo, but I don't see a pending embargo.

And I just bought a 1940's Mauser holster imported from China.

Quoted: I don't believe even the Chinese could absorb a massive nuclear strike from the Russians.  Depending on where and the height (or lack there of) and the pervailing winds, what the blasts didn't kill, the radiation/fallout will do the rest.   Given how densely packed the Chinese population is, the effects would be devastating and that is an understatement.

No kidding. They can bluster all they want about "sacrificing their hordes", but Russia will not have any problem launching ICBMs with multiple nuclear warheads in defense of their country. Unless the Chicoms intend to move their society underground, they are doomed in that scenario. Russia, while taking some heavy damage in Moscow from nuclear strikes, has a far more dispersed population given its landmass.

I think a Chinese attack on Russia will become more of a "necessity" than a "because we can" attack on Taiwan.

Quoted: "In January 2005, General-Lieutenant V.I. Ostankov, director of the General Staffs Military-Strategic Studies Center, warned that the strengthening of China's economic might and its growing population require tremendous resources. Because the repository of the world's natural resources has already been divided up, it seems logical that the vector of Chinese expansion will be directed toward the abutting regions of Russia (above all, Siberia and the Far East) as well as of Kazakhstan and other countries of Central Asia." This is what China wants from Russia - Siberia, for its largely untapped oil supply. China will play Russia off us, us off Russia, talk and deal with our enemies and confound our allies in the region.  If they can get what they want through intimidation or through the fear of lost trade revenues, fine, they'll take it. But the Chinese are very patient.  They are also very smart in their planning.  They will determine every weakness and every strength we posses and act accordingly.  The sad fact is they will do it with American and Russian technology - all bought for a price. In the end, we, or the US and Russia, will prevail.  But it will probably be the nastiest thing the earth has ever seen.

Taking Siberia would be no cakewalk.   Not many roads or civilization, about 3 months of temps above freezing, the rest at temps in excess of -60 C.  There is a section of Siberia not super far from the China boarder that averages nearly -100 C for the entire month of January.

The short summer months are no fun either as the top layer of permafrost turns to mud.

Hope the Chinese bring the long Johns, temps that cold can wipe out an entire army.

hmmm, sign me up, Ill fight some commies.

Lookin good on selling Japan F22s

I think the US knows what we are doing and Japan knows why they need the F22's. I have heard Charles Smith war game the Taiwan scenario and it escalated real quick. Smith used to be a war-gamer for the pentagon. Japan is quickly involved and Okinawa in the conflict. One thing that screws up the Chinese is that since Iraq war it freed up several carrier battle groups which were tied down in that area according to Smith.

As of last spring there were several million chinese squatters living in Russia.  

I have long said there is more chance of a Russia-China war over land or natural resources (same thing...) than a US-China war, but we will see.  

Quoted: "Some Russian analysts have gone so far as to charge that Russian nuclear weapons are in fact a 'non-deterrent' against China. The Chinese leadership is said to be willing to sacrifice 'hordes' of its citizens in pursuit of its geostrategic objectives," concludes the Hudson report. Hooray for freedom of the press.  Do these "hordes" know they're about to be sacrificed?

The Chinese hordes watch military game shows on TY. It is still a very strange society. Pardon the crappy photo, but I found this on Chinese TV when I was there a few weeks ago, and had to take a picture. It was some kind of game show shot on a Chinese airbase starring Chinese soldiers. That same channel seemed to show lots of videos of military parades and chinese war movies.

Quoted: Quoted: "Some Russian analysts have gone so far as to charge that Russian nuclear weapons are in fact a 'non-deterrent' against China. The Chinese leadership is said to be willing to sacrifice 'hordes' of its citizens in pursuit of its geostrategic objectives," concludes the Hudson report. Hooray for freedom of the press.  Do these "hordes" know they're about to be sacrificed? The Chinese hordes watch military game shows on TY. It is still a very strange society. Pardon the crappy photo, but I found this on Chinese TV when I was there a few weeks ago, and had to take a picture. It was some kind of game show shot on a Chinese airbase starring Chinese soldiers. That same channel seemed to show lots of videos of military parades and chinese war movies. www.refugepics.com/members/Pennswoods/Chicom%20Show.jpg

WTH are those, glorified MiG 19s?

Has the US stated that it would defend Taiwan if it were invaded?

Tag for gloriously ignorant comments about war with the PRC.

G

Comments:

1) Anyone who has not heard of the history of the Chosin Reservoir needs to look it up.  Or even better, talk to one of the "Chosin Few" who lived through that hell.  IIRC the M-16 was adopted in part with full-automatic capability as a direct result of the experience with  "human wave attacks".  

2) India or Israel could make some easy money selling a few nukes to Taiwan and make their (and our) situation easier to defend.  (?)

Quoted: Has the US stated that it would defend Taiwan if it were invaded?

I think I heard that somewhere before, or maybe it was the Chinese threatening us if we did?  But I think we should back the Ruskies as a matter of principle, jumping in at the last minute to their aid.  That way they don't get too uppity with us too soon after they win.

Although I am quite sure that Russia will have no problems vaporizing/dispatching said Chinese squatters with the vast nuclear arsenal they were supposed to dismantle according to the treaties they signed with other nations.  Now where is that tinfoil hat?

Quoted: Tag for gloriously ignorant comments about war with the PRC. G