User Panel
Posted: 2/10/2006 7:33:17 PM EDT
From the Los Angeles Times
Would Iranians rally 'round the flag? Various ethnic and religious factions might see little to gain in supporting Tehran if the country's nuclear facilities were bombed. By Edward N. Luttwak EDWARD N. LUTTWAK is a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. February 10, 2006 www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-luttwak10feb10,0,3661131.story?coll=la-news-comment-opinions THERE MAY BE good reasons to oppose an air attack on Iran's nuclear installations at this time, but one of the arguments that is advanced most often is seriously flawed. The argument is based on a familiar axiom that ruling regimes, even unpopular ones, are strengthened by such attacks because the bombarded nation rallies around its rulers. But this does not apply to Iran. It's true that when Germans, Japanese and Serbs, among others, were bombed, they did indeed support their leaders all the more because the attacks increased their sense of national solidarity. Iran, however, is not a nation-state but rather a multinational empire dominated by Persians, much as the Soviet Union was once dominated by Russians. Except that in this case, the Persians only account for just over half the population of Iran (making them a smaller proportion than the Russians were even in the final days of the Soviet Union). No scholar who studies Iran would dispute that there is a very strong Persian identity and pride of ownership in ruling Iran among the Persians, but only a very weak sense of Iranian participation among non-Persians. Iran is not like Lebanon, where the different communities often fight each other. Instead, Iran's minorities each resist the Persian-dominated central government. Just in the last month, guerrillas of Baluch nationality kidnapped soldiers in southeast Iran. Arabs of Khuzistan province next to Iraq detonated bombs in Ahwaz, and Kurds clashed with the rural police. To the extent that the different nationalities each have their own identities and oppose the essentially Persian regime, they are likely to applaud external attacks on the nuclear installations rather than rally to the defense of their rulers. So how does factional solidarity in Iran break down? The Kurds, who account for about 9% of the population, have been encouraged by the example of virtual Kurdish independence in Iraq next door. Their demands for autonomy are becoming more forceful, and something of an insurgency seems to have started. Very few Kurds are likely to rally around their Persian overlords. Smaller nationalities that are known to be disaffected because of recent examples of violent resistance include the Arabs at 3% of Iran's population and the Baluch at 2%. Little is known of the intensity of the national sentiments of the Turkmen and Lurs (2% each), and still less of the Gilaki and Mazandarani (8% in all), who may be politically more assimilated simply because they speak Persian dialects. Along with the Kurds, all the smaller nationalities amount to only a quarter of Iran's population; but Turkic-speaking Azeris add another 24% all by themselves. Many Azeri families in Tehran especially are believed to be thoroughly assimilated, but the more numerous Azeris farther north are not, and national revival and separatist groups have become increasingly active among them. Since Azerbaijan just across the border gained its independence from the Soviet Union, the Azeris have a national home of their own, and it is not Iran. The religious extremism of Iran's regime has further fractured the nation's solidarity by discriminating not only against the non-Muslim Bahais, Christians, Jews and Zoroastrians who amount to only 2% of the total population, and are of yet smaller political significance, but also against the 9% or more who are Sunnis (who are not even allowed to have their own mosque in Tehran, where 1 million of them live). So, all in all, at least half the population is unlikely to be motivated by feelings of solidarity with their rulers. Only among the Persians are many likely to react to an attack as the axiom prescribes; others might welcome the humiliation of their oppressors. The bombing of Iran's nuclear installations may still be a bad idea for other reasons, but not because it would strengthen the hold of its rulers. One may hope that Iran's rulers are not misled by their own propaganda and will therefore accept a diplomatic solution rather than gamble all on an irrelevant axiom. |
|
They'll rally round the family...with a pocket full of shells...
|
|
Quite insightful. Really adds to the thread. Maybe this will work better for your hick ass. "We's might be able to bomb em' ragheads after all bubba". |
|
|
dirka dirka, muhammad jihad |
||
|
You going back "home" to visit during all this? |
||
|
Well... since I was born and raised in California... I already am back home you dumb hick. |
|||
|
Ok, then go visit your family in iran ya dumb camelhumper. |
||||
|
damn hippies |
||||
|
Yes... I'm the one trolling my own thread. Interesting concept dumbass. |
|||
|
I think he was referring to DU, your other home, you dumb fucking troll. |
||||
|
my first thought |
|
|
I'd rather pay your family a visit and show your wife what a real man is. |
|||||
|
You still carry that pic of me in your wallet? Your wives all have one of me in their purses too. Ask them what they all named their dildos. |
||||||
|
The article gives the point of view that bombing Iran may not lead to the negative consequences most believe. That means it is pro bombing. How is that a DU position???? Dumbass! |
|||||
|
May I suggest "Making friends for dummies"? |
||||
|
LoL. I don't have a wife. Me and my friends share yours. |
|||||||
|
Don't look now, but I think he likes you! |
|||||
|
Speaking of your wives, I saw one of them at the store the other day talking thru her burka to another one.
She said do these remind you of glockguys nut? The second one said, hell no they aren't that big, but they sure are that dirty. |
|
Yeah, and the good thing is...most of these guys are too old to know what the hell we are talking about |
||
|
Who gives a fuck what they do?
Only fools and morons believe there is any chance for reform from within Iran. |
|
So everyone who isnt from Kommiefornia, and says something you dont like is a hick? Speak for yourself, dumbass. |
||||||
|
Ummm... like I said... I'm not married. Your wife, and several other toothless, loose women serve me just fine. |
|
|
He was trolling my thread. Was I supposed to thank him? |
|||||||
|
That's not my wife you dumb goat herder, there goats. Your breath smells of goat cum and the ayatollah's dick. |
||
|
Yes. He is a team member, and he graced your thread with his presence. You should be very thankful. |
||||||||
|
LOL. I've never even seen a goat in person in my life. I know your wife has a slight beard, but even I am not mean enough to confuse her with a goat. How did she ever marry a man like you. LMAO. P.S. I've never seen an ayatollah in real life either. |
|||
|
You suck at insults, stick to iranian dick. |
||||
|
I prefer your ugly wife's pussy. I'm not a homo.... you can keep the dick for yourself. |
|||||
|
Too bad The Pit is closed. This is kinda funny. Alas, I fear a lock.
|
|
I owned his ass in the pit and then he wouldn't show back up. Sissy iranian. |
|
|
Bring it on you inbred cocksucker. Was your sister your grandmother too? |
||
|
That's as weak as your best erection goatfucker. |
|||
|
Ask your wife why she is missing those front teeth. I jabbed her teeth a little too hard with one of those erections. She didn't open up fast enough. |
||||
|
So basically you are saying that you can't find your own pussy and prefer ugly toothless women? Yep, your a goatfucker alright. |
|||||
|
No... I just like fucking your wife to spite you. I've never liked your cock sucking ass... so I figured pleasing your wife is the least I could do. |
||||||
|
I killed a guy with a trident. IBTL |
|
|
When Saddamned invaded Iran while the revolution was in full swing, the mullahs were able to rally the country with enough force to resist the invasion forces. A long stalemate came about because Iran killed off the officers who knew how to fight, and because, well, we know Saddamned, now don’t we?
So, in short, Iranians just might rally enough to be a major problem. |
|
None of us like your pro mideast ass, so go fuck yourself. |
|||||||
|
LOL. That hurt. Now who sucks at insults you fucking weak piece of shit. Is that the best you got you non-wife pleasing, limp dick, inbred hick? |
||||||||
|
|
|||||||
|
This fucked, I've never seen Mr Clean throw down. quite entertaining.
|
|
I can +1 that |
||||||||
|
Guess you missed me in the pit |
|
|
Also, how is it pro-mideast to post an article that underminds a key argument against bombing Iran. This article gives factual evidence that underminds critics of bombing Iran. How the fuck is that Pro-Iran or pro-mideast? |
||||||||
|
Sign up for the ARFCOM weekly newsletter and be entered to win a free ARFCOM membership. One new winner* is announced every week!
You will receive an email every Friday morning featuring the latest chatter from the hottest topics, breaking news surrounding legislation, as well as exclusive deals only available to ARFCOM email subscribers.
AR15.COM is the world's largest firearm community and is a gathering place for firearm enthusiasts of all types.
From hunters and military members, to competition shooters and general firearm enthusiasts, we welcome anyone who values and respects the way of the firearm.
Subscribe to our monthly Newsletter to receive firearm news, product discounts from your favorite Industry Partners, and more.
Copyright © 1996-2024 AR15.COM LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Any use of this content without express written consent is prohibited.
AR15.Com reserves the right to overwrite or replace any affiliate, commercial, or monetizable links, posted by users, with our own.