Edit:  what i'd like to focus on is, with each specific threat below, how can we take steps now to safeguard against them?

Each of the scenarios below are ones you guys came up with -they are just compiled here.  This is some scary stuff.  the scenarios you guys came up with is enough to keep a guy awake at night...

In my analysis, 100 points is the standard for a significant impact (more than 5 years to recover) on American Civilization.  The points I have asigned to your scenarios are subjective.    Please note I think that any single event by itself, though weighty in points, is something we Americans probably can recover from.  *It would take the synthesis and conjoining of two or more events that tip the scales and bring us to the point of no return.*

Primary-stand alone events
1. contamination of public water supplies in at least three major cities, (with the obligatory broadcast by the networks,) terror level goes up.  They don't have to be effective with this one, just the rumor of bad water will cause significant impact:  
25 points.  

2.  Influenza/Bird flu/smallpox/Ebola variant that is persistant and controlled, and with the effect of disabling/making bedridden, more than 20% of american adults and children.  this is scary, since it is very doable - an aerosolized attack on multiple high traffic hubs (like a bug bomb).  the danger here is we may discover the aerosolized delivery vehicles many hours after they have discharged.  one in each major airport would be a tragedy.
50 points.

3. Disabled power grid.  Catastrophic failure, cascading failure of key regions, (You heard on the news your water may be unsafe, you and your kids are sick from the aerosolized agent, and now your T v is out, you can't track the attack) No power= no fuel pumps = get your horse and buggy/bicycle.
35 points.

Stop here: if these three events happen within a two week period, i'm not sure how we could recover.  A private well is a safeguard any individual can take.  Maybe someone familiar with pathogens can chime in on whether immunizations are available for those bugs.  As far as grid going out, I feel we would be surprisingly OK unless it was winter, with the cold killing old or weak.

4.  Mass Evacuation duplication of New Orleans , but caused by event at Yellowstone, Nuclear reactor incident, Mt. St. Helens, or SF earthquake, Tsunami.
15 points.

5.  Terror attack of moderate success and scale, but not exceeding 9/11
10 points

6.  Terror attack exceeding 9/11 - nuclear attack against high value/high payoff american targets
50 points

7. Meteor (however likelihood is unknown) that causes worldwide climate change.
speculative points - this in and of itself could disproportionately weight the point system

8. race riots over a trigger event (event of your choice, NBA game, trial decision, republican sweep in 08)
15 points

9.  computer virus that results in over half of networked computers malfunctioning at a predetermined time.  I think we are still within memory of Y2K to handle this lightweight problem.
5 points

10.  coordinated refinery attacks that start fires of a significant magnitude that the refineries would have to be allowed to burn themselves out -- there isn't the staff to fight 30 fires like that at once.
30 points.

11.  Hydro electric power attack.  One poster says "it would just not be that hard to hit a decent number of dams across the US -- you don't need to blow them up, just open the gates and drain the lakes at full speed. The dams downstream will not be able to release the water that fast and at best you have flooding problems, at worst damage, and either way you will not have any hydroelectric power until you have enough of a head behind the dam. Do this with a few dams (like Glen Canyon, Hoover, Davis, Parker or Buchanan, Inks, Granite Shoals, Starcke, Mansfield, Tom Miller, and Longhorn) at the same time, and the refilling alone, apart from the flood damage, would be a major pain and would take a decently long time, especially in mid-summer." just my twocents, but with so many other high payoff targets for the bastages to focus on, I don't see them taking this option.
15 points.
Events which probably require a trigger, or precurser Primary event
8.  Chinese action (Invade Taiwan, embargo, attack the US , whatever they do will affect us and seal the fate of a second "great" depression)
25 points

9. Isreal attacked by Iran or other similar sovereign.
20 points

1) New Madrid fault decides to "Shake it up"
2) Yellowstone decides to blow it up.

Dirty bomb.

1. Nuclear attack form either missles, dirty bomb, attack reactor.
2.Chemical attack

1.  Natural Disaster that brings a halt to America for more than 2 weeks, leaving us open to terror attacks.

2.  Terror Attack.

3.  China Declares War on USA.

4. Aliens find and attack Earth.

5.  Zombies attack.

Hillery win's 2008

Major widespread power blackouts.
BTW when Yellowstone blows it will be EOTWAWKI

1,000 women with PMS at a 1 hour sale at Macy's with limited stock on hand

Chemical Plant explosions down here could be devastating.

HH

Quoted: 10. All major and minor breweries are destroyed, hence no booze. Panic ensues, world is destroyed.

1. The Chinese stop making those delicious "Fortune Cookies".
2. Jerry Curles around the country go dry when the "Leonard Jenkins Hair Grease" factory is blown up.
3. Laguna Beach is canceled sending teens, and pre-teens, into a nation-wide rampage.

earthquake.

All of these have the potential for full-on mayhem

1) An NBA team from a major city wins/losses the championship
2) A hate crime trial in a major city results in acquittal
3) Another Republican president is fairly elected in 2008

Quoted: Hillary win's 2008

Definitely number one.

After that, everything a terrorist could do pales in comparison.

Somebody tells my wife that she looks fat.

Obvious:
Small nuke in densely populated area*
Dirty bomb in densely populated area*
Biological release in densely populated area*
Contaminated water supply leading to densely populated area*+
*Densely populated area shall mean only the most densely populated areas of the US: NYC, LA, SF (I think those are the top three?)
+I wouldn't be surprised if there's continuous/computerized testing going on, and supply gets shut off immediately. Another possibility is an inside job; such as a few workers of one of NYC's new aquaducts leaving a surprise (eg, a bomb. if one of those breaks, it could cause major flooding).

Not as obvious:
-Blasting open and setting fire to a gas line directly underneath a heavily populated building, quickly incinerating the first few levels and leaving everyone above SOL, probably a major building or durring an importaint meeting in a * area.
-French-resistance style operations, blowing up railroad tracks and re-railing trains containing food/supplies heading for a * area.

Quoted: 1.  Natural Disaster that brings a halt to America for more than 2 weeks, leaving us open to terror attacks. 2.  Terror Attack. 3.  China Declares War on USA. 4. Aliens find and attack Earth. 5.  Zombies attack.

why two weeks?  interesting qualification you put on that....and do you really think china will lauch a sneak attack?  thanks for the responses.

Quoted: 1. The Chinese stop making those delicious "Fortune Cookies". 2. Jerry Curles around the country go dry when the "Leonard Jenkins Hair Grease" factory is blown up. 3. Laguna Beach is canceled sending teens, and pre-teens, into a nation-wide rampage.

4.  It comes out that 6 of the top 10 female sex symbols were formerly men, causing thousands of American Male Youth to become violently nauseous and causing the sales of skin lotion to plummet.

The cocain supply is cut off to Baltimore(or insert you "favorite" big city).

Major earthquake in a large California city.

Quoted: The cocain supply is cut off to Baltimore(or insert you "favorite" big city).

I think they would just switch to meth.
alot of crack heads already are,

Quoted: Quoted: 1.  Natural Disaster that brings a halt to America for more than 2 weeks, leaving us open to terror attacks. 2.  Terror Attack. 3.  China Declares War on USA. 4. Aliens find and attack Earth. 5.  Zombies attack. why two weeks?  interesting qualification you put on that....and do you really think china will lauch a sneak attack?  thanks for the responses.

I really dont know where the 2 weeks came from, and yes, almost every member of the SF board thinks there will be a Chinease attack, not nessicarily a sneak attack, but an attack period.


But i truly did pull most of these attacks out of my ass to see if i could make at least 5 things.

In no particular order...

1. N/B/C attack on a minor city to test, then on a major city for effect(devistating)
2. Water supply contaminated in a major city(immediate threat/panic)
3. Nulcear power station hit by an aircraft(dirty bomb/cloud)
4. Selective destruction of oil refineries along the coast or offshore platforms(supply/ecology)
5. Flooding of vast areas (Hoover dam/aircraft hit or NY tunnels)
6. Computer hacking focused in financial/electric grid control areas.
7. Use of magnetic pulse bomb types for data disruption
8. Fiber optics location/destruction to kill data transmission/commerce
9. China/N. Korea event of some type.
10. Republican sweeping wins in 2006/2008  (the only positive SHTF situation  lol...)

1. Biological attack / disease outbreak

All the MREs, water, and bullets in the world won't help one bit unless you have an airtight room with decontamination, air filtration, and the right meds.

definitly Biological outbreak

we as common folk cant do anything against that

1.  I catch my little toe on a chair leg in the kitchen.
2.  I discover I have no flour to make those tasty banana bran muffins I had my heart set on.
3.  With the defrosted steak all ready to go, I discover I am all out of propane for my grill.

The horror....the horror...

In no particular order:

1.  A nasty airborne virus that has a high (>10%) fatality rate and a long period of illness.

2.  A serious multi-year drought in North America.

3.  An economic depression (as opposed to recession).

4.  Meteor impact or volcanic event dumping massive amounts of particles into the atmosphere causing massive climate change.

5.  A tsunami hitting the east coast of the US.

6.  Major earthquake in California.

7.  Extended nationwide power grid problems.  Localized problems could also be severe (imagine the city of Chicago without power for 2 weeks during deep winter).

8.  A terrorist attack (or natural disaster) that interrupts the ability of the US government to pay social security and other welfre checks for an extended period of time.

a rock from space the size of manhattan will hit Yellowstone and cause the mother of all seismic event

In Maine if SHTF it will be because of one of the following:

Ice Storm

Fuel Shortages

Water Contamination

Governor Baldacci

Or a mix of all four.

But no matter what, I'm 100% that it'll involve the influx of hundreds of thousands of  SUV's boasting Massachusetts liscense plates.

Hopefully, they log jam the highway in Kittery and don't get past Sanford.

Terrorist attacks - Wide spred car/suicide bombings.

I have always thought that car bombs would be the next phase of the attack against america. Mutliple attacks accross the country in various cities and suburb areas would certainly put this country into panic mode. Imagine what would happen if say 5-10 bombs went off the day after thanksgiving in large family filled malls accross the states? Or a highschool football stadium at a homecoming game?

We have for the most part been lucky. I am not downplaying 9/11 BY ANY MEANS, just pointing out that here stateside we have not seen the up close type of attacks that have become common place around the world. Suicide bombings, assasinations, car bombs and such.

CH

Quoted: Terrorist attacks - Wide spred car/suicide bombings. I have always thought that car bombs would be the next phase of the attack against america. Mutliple attacks accross the country in various cities and suburb areas would certainly put this country into panic mode. Imagine what would happen if say 5-10 bombs went off the day after thanksgiving in large family filled malls accross the states? Or a highschool football stadium at a homecoming game? We have for the most part been lucky. I am not downplaying 9/11 BY ANY MEANS, just pointing out that here stateside we have not seen the up close type of attacks that have become common place around the world. Suicide bombings, assasinations, car bombs and such. CH

It's the scenario we all know is coming but still pretend doesn't exist.

Biological has been mentioned a few times...specifically, ebola generally kills too fast and burns itself out before being spread fast enough.  Smallpox though...that's a biggie.  Also a deadly variant of influenza would be harsh...very harsh.  During some parts of WWI, more people were dying from influenza than the war.  We pretty much have a flu epidemic every year, it's just not deadly like some of the variants have been.

Also a quake somewhere besides California.  Certainly California is a more likely scenario, but a quake can happen anywhere.  And engineering in California at least tries to take earthquakes into consideration when building.  Put a major 8.2 quake in say....uh...Baltimore or something...not nice.

I catch one of my employees surfing ARFCOM during business hours.

X

Arfcom server goes down.


That is our achiles heel, we have just about gamed everything else out, zombies, ammo shortages, gas shortages.
Without Arfcom there will be no "getting both", gun pics of the day, nor "range reports" yup teotwawki, no doubt.


On the upside my lawn will get cut and my time shooting may surpass my time talking about it.

Here in the Rocky Mountain region these are the most likely SHTF:

1.  Earthquake.  It's no secret that there are fault lines here, they just hasn't been as active as the ones in California (lately).  Newer housing and buildings should do pretty well, but older buildings are in trouble.

2.  Dam breaks.  There are dams all over the place.  I remember that one broke in Idaho a few decades ago.  With the population becoming more dense, the potential for serious loss of property and life has increased over the past few years.

1. Breakdown in the monetary system.
2. Failure of the power grid.
3. Failure of the food delivery system.
4. Failure of the fuel delivery system.
5. Hurricanes
6. Earthquakes
7. Blizzards
8. Large scale terrorist attacks in more than one venue with conventional weapons.  
9. Small scale terrorist attacks in more than one venue with conventional weapons.
10. Terrorist attacts using WMD.
11. Pandemic.

Katrina has shown us that for all the prep we've done over the past 4 years, we're still WAY behind the curve in terms of being able to handle one major crisis.  

What would .gov do if the terrs struck LA and NYC tomorrow? Or, a dozen, or two, smaller cities accross the continent?   What if another hurricane hits Miami next week?

Now is the time to prepare your personal survival kits and supplies. If you trust fed.gov to save your ass when SHTF....you're an idiot...or a democrat.

Quoted: ...Smallpox though...that's a biggie.  Also a deadly variant of influenza would be harsh...very harsh.  During some parts of WWI, more people were dying from influenza than the war...

Smallpox is a serious issue and so is influenza.  The so-called "Spanish Flu" pandemic of 1918-19 killed, according to which estimate you go by, upwards of 500,000 people in the U.S. alone (keep in mind how much smaller our population was back then).  Worldwide, the final death toll of the pandemic was greater than the number of people killed during WWI (it certainly killed more Americans than were lost during the war).

Influenza can be a frighteningly efficient killer and modern science to this day has no real clue what made this particular virus so deadly.  The freaky thing about it was that it was most dangerous to those one would think of as least succeptible: adults between the ages of 18-40.  Diseases often prey upon the very young or very old.  Not so this strain of flu: it was quite common for men in the prime of life to fall ill and die within days whereas their elderly parents would survive as would young children.

Influenza and Smallpox are some scary shit.

LINKY HERE

Wow smallpox, now that's scary shit!

1. Terrorist Nuke
2. Foreign central bank panic causing sudden collapse of the dollar
3. Terrorist attacks on saudi oil
4. Earthquake in CA or WA
5. North Korean missile attack
6. Another Hurricane in Gulf does more damage to oil and natural gas
7. Rowdy demonstration heads down wrong street
8. Big volcano sends up ash and messes up weather
9. China invades Taiwan
10. meteor or tsunami affecting the US

Quoted: Quoted: Terrorist attacks - Wide spred car/suicide bombings. I have always thought that car bombs would be the next phase of the attack against america. Mutliple attacks accross the country in various cities and suburb areas would certainly put this country into panic mode. Imagine what would happen if say 5-10 bombs went off the day after thanksgiving in large family filled malls accross the states? Or a highschool football stadium at a homecoming game? We have for the most part been lucky. I am not downplaying 9/11 BY ANY MEANS, just pointing out that here stateside we have not seen the up close type of attacks that have become common place around the world. Suicide bombings, assasinations, car bombs and such. CH If there ever was an emergency that everybody needs to understand emergency response, that's it right there.

Agreed and at the same time, how does joe blow prepare for that?

Think about the implacations of this and let me as a question.....

If there were such attacks, widespread and in rapid concession, what would you do?
How would you react?

Not to hijack this thread...I think another is in order.
CH

keep em coming people

"The Big One" hits Southern California in late summer.  Most freeway interchanges are destroyed, and effectively all freeways into the LA basin are impassable.  Most airport runways are damaged to some extent.  The California Aquaduct is severed.  Several fires break out as a result of the earthquake.  Due to the difficulty of moving over damaged streets and the lack of water due to the shattered mains, the fires burn out of control.  By day 2 most poor people are out of water and civil order start to break down.  Rioting and looting starts.  Arsonists start setting more fires, some of which hit the hillsides and rage out of control.  Because of the damage to communication and transportation infrastrucure, emergency supplies of water can't get into LA in large enough quantities.  By day 7 even the well prepared are running out of water.  Water riots ensue everywhere.  The rot of corpses starts to become a major health issue and contributes to further panic and civil break down.
By day 10 LA is postapocalyptic with roving gangs fighting for food and water.  The sky is red/black with smoke from the out of control fires.  Those with fuel, off road vehicles, weapons, and ammo fight their way out.

Quoted: "The Big One" hits Southern California in late summer.  Most freeway interchanges are destroyed, and effectively all freeways into the LA basin are impassable.  Most airport runways are damaged to some extent.  The California Aquaduct is severed.  Several fires break out as a result of the earthquake.  Due to the difficulty of moving over damaged streets and the lack of water due to the shattered mains, the fires burn out of control.  By day 2 most poor people are out of water and civil order start to break down.  Rioting and looting starts.  Arsonists start setting more fires, some of which hit the hillsides and rage out of control.  Because of the damage to communication and transportation infrastrucure, emergency supplies of water can't get into LA in large enough quantities.  By day 7 even the well prepared are running out of water.  Water riots ensue everywhere.  The rot of corpses starts to become a major health issue and contributes to further panic and civil break down. By day 10 LA is postapocalyptic with roving gangs fighting for food and water.  The sky is red/black with smoke from the out of control fires.  Those with fuel, off road vehicles, weapons, and ammo fight their way out.

That is just a matter of time.

Quoted: Quoted: "The Big One" hits Southern California in late summer.  Most freeway interchanges are destroyed, and effectively all freeways into the LA basin are impassable.  Most airport runways are damaged to some extent.  The California Aquaduct is severed.  Several fires break out as a result of the earthquake.  Due to the difficulty of moving over damaged streets and the lack of water due to the shattered mains, the fires burn out of control.  By day 2 most poor people are out of water and civil order start to break down.  Rioting and looting starts.  Arsonists start setting more fires, some of which hit the hillsides and rage out of control.  Because of the damage to communication and transportation infrastrucure, emergency supplies of water can't get into LA in large enough quantities.  By day 7 even the well prepared are running out of water.  Water riots ensue everywhere.  The rot of corpses starts to become a major health issue and contributes to further panic and civil break down. By day 10 LA is postapocalyptic with roving gangs fighting for food and water.  The sky is red/black with smoke from the out of control fires.  Those with fuel, off road vehicles, weapons, and ammo fight their way out. That is just a matter of time.

That's why Arizona has so many guns.

any issues with the ranking system?

Quoted: "The Big One" hits Southern California in late summer.  Most freeway interchanges are destroyed, and effectively all freeways into the LA basin are impassable.  Most airport runways are damaged to some extent.  The California Aquaduct is severed.  Several fires break out as a result of the earthquake.  Due to the difficulty of moving over damaged streets and the lack of water due to the shattered mains, the fires burn out of control.  By day 2 most poor people are out of water and civil order start to break down.  Rioting and looting starts.  Arsonists start setting more fires, some of which hit the hillsides and rage out of control.  Because of the damage to communication and transportation infrastrucure, emergency supplies of water can't get into LA in large enough quantities.  By day 7 even the well prepared are running out of water.  Water riots ensue everywhere.  The rot of corpses starts to become a major health issue and contributes to further panic and civil break down. By day 2 LA is postapocalyptic with roving gangs fighting for food and water.  The sky is red/black with smoke from the out of control fires.  Those with fuel, off road vehicles, weapons, and ammo fight their way out.

Fixed it for ya.

Quoted: Quoted: "The Big One" hits Southern California in late summer.  Most freeway interchanges are destroyed, and effectively all freeways into the LA basin are impassable.  Most airport runways are damaged to some extent.  The California Aquaduct is severed.  Several fires break out as a result of the earthquake.  Due to the difficulty of moving over damaged streets and the lack of water due to the shattered mains, the fires burn out of control.  By day 2 most poor people are out of water and civil order start to break down.  Rioting and looting starts.  Arsonists start setting more fires, some of which hit the hillsides and rage out of control.  Because of the damage to communication and transportation infrastrucure, emergency supplies of water can't get into LA in large enough quantities.  By day 7 even the well prepared are running out of water.  Water riots ensue everywhere.  The rot of corpses starts to become a major health issue and contributes to further panic and civil break down. By day 2 LA is postapocalyptic with roving gangs fighting for food and water.  The sky is red/black with smoke from the out of control fires.  Those with fuel, off road vehicles, weapons, and ammo fight their way out. Fixed it for ya.

Yeah, I was being conservative.  I consider this scenario more a matter of "when" than "if".  We have riots here when the Lakers win a championship; I shudder to think how bad it will get when this happens.  Fortunately I live up in the foothills and will be spared the worst due to elevation and upper-middle class neighbors.  Still, I'm taking a hard look at my B.O.B. and emergency supplies.

You forgot space aliens invading.