severe weather threat areas


Tornado risk areas

...CAROLINAS/TN VALLEY NWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE   ATLANTIC STATES...     AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PER NHC AND GFS GUIDANCE...REMNANT KATRINA   CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NEWD FROM SW OF BNA INTO CNTRL KY BY   LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG AND JUST TO THE W OF OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL   BAROCLINIC ZONE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SRN MIDDLE TN NEWD INTO ERN   PA.  ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF LOW WILL   MAINTAIN BACKED SURFACE WINDS AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1   KM SRH OF 200-500 M2/S2/ FROM LOW TRACK EWD INTO THE LEE OF THE   APPALACHIANS.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED   WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION IN CLOSE   PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW.  HOWEVER...OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION AND   ATLANTIC COAST...COMPARATIVELY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED   WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER /LOW TO MID 70 SURFACE DEWPOINTS/   WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF   1000-2000 J/KG.     OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION...SUPERPOSITION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND   MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER LOW AND   MID-LEVEL SHEAR INDICATE AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND   TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AS WAS THE CASE ON   TUESDAY...STORMS SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY   BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AS BOUNDARY-LAYER SLOWLY COOLS AND   STABILIZES.  NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS   ALONG AND E OF LOW TRACK...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND   THREAT WILL DEVELOP NEWD OVERNIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES.

www.spc.noaa.gov/products/

Public Severe Weather Outlook


  ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
  WOUS40 KWNS 301010
  MDZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-301815-
 
  PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0510 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005
 
  VALID 301010Z - 301815Z
 
  ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
  CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA TODAY
  AND TONIGHT.
 
  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
  DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
  APPALACHIANS INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA LATER TODAY AND
  TONIGHT.
 
  THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
 
         MARYLAND PANHANDLE
         WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
         WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
         WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
         EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
 
  SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
  CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC.
 
  AS REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WEST OF THE
  CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...ASSOCIATED ENHANCED WIND FIELDS WILL
  OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
  CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA.  TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR
  THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH
  CAROLINA THIS MORNING ONCE THE SUN RISES AND HEATS THE SURFACE.  AS
  FURTHER HEATING AND AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS NORTHEAST OF
  THERE...WE EXPECT TORNADOES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY.  THOUGH THESE
  STORMS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SMALL...INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE
  OF AFFECTING SEVERAL COUNTIES GIVEN THE FAST STORM MOTIONS.  THE
  MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO
  EXTEND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM
  THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
 
  THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
  SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
  RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
 
  ..EVANS.. 08/30/2005
 
  $$        

Great, replay of Ivan from last year.  I think Ivan spawned something along the lines of 25 tornados here in Virginia.  Two of them crossed in front of my parents house.