User Panel
Posted: 8/10/2005 8:22:26 AM EDT
Not sure if this article is from a liberal source, but doesn't paint the economy as too great.
http://www.vdare.com/roberts/050808_crumble.htm August 08, 2005 Watching the Economy Crumble By Paul Craig Roberts The US continues its descent into the Third World, but you would never know it from news reports of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July payroll jobs release. The media gives a bare bones jobs report that is misleading. The public heard that 207,000 jobs were created in July. If not a reassuring figure, at least it is not a disturbing one. On the surface things look to be pretty much OK. It is when you look into the composition of these jobs that the concern arises. Of the new jobs, 26,000 (about 13%) are tax-supported government jobs. That leaves 181,000 private sector jobs. Of these private sector jobs, 177,000, or 98%, are in the domestic service sector. Here is the breakdown of the major categories: 30,000 food servers and bartenders, 28,000 health care and social assistance, 12,000 real estate, 6,000 credit intermediation, 8,000 transit and ground passenger transportation, 50,000 retail trade and 8,000 wholesale trade. (There were 7,000 construction jobs, most of which were filled by Mexicans.) Not a single one of these jobs produces a tradable good or service that can be exported or serve as an import substitute to help reduce the massive and growing US trade deficit. The US economy is employing people to sell things, to move people around, and to serve them fast food and alcoholic beverages. The items may have an American brand name, but they are mainly made off shore. For example, 70% of Wal-Mart’s goods are made in China. Where are the jobs for the 65,000 engineers the US graduates each year? Where are the jobs for the physics, chemistry, and math majors? Who needs a university degree to wait tables and serve drinks, to build houses, to work as hospital orderlies, bus drivers, and sales clerks? In the 21st century job growth in the US economy has consistently reflected that of a Third World country—low productivity domestic services jobs. This goes on month after month and no one catches on—least of all the economists and the policymakers. Economists assume that every high productivity, high paying job that is shipped out of the country is a net gain for America. We are getting things cheaper, they say. Perhaps, for a while, until the dollar goes. What the cheaper goods argument overlooks are the reductions in the productivity and pay of employed Americans and in the manufacturing, technical, and scientific capability of the US economy. What is the point of higher education when the job opportunities in the economy do not require it? These questions are too difficult for economists, politicians, and newscasters. Instead, we hear that "last month the US economy created 207,000 jobs." Television has an inexhaustible supply of optimistic economists. Last weekend CNN had John Rutledge (erroneously billed as the person who drafted President Reagan’s economic program) explaining that the strength of the US economy was "mom and pop businesses." The college student with whom I was watching the program broke out laughing. What mom and pop businesses? Everything that used to be mom and pop businesses has been replaced with chains and discount retailers. Auto parts stores are chains, pharmacies are chains, restaurants are chains. Wal-Mart, Home Depot, and Lowes, have destroyed hardware stores, clothing stores, appliance stores, building supply stores, gardening shops, whatever—you name it. Just try starting a small business today. Most gasoline station/convenience stores seem to be the property of immigrant ethnic groups who acquired them with the aid of a taxpayer-financed US government loan. Today a mom and pop business is a cleaning service that employs Mexicans, a pool service, a lawn service, or a limo service. In recent years the US economy has been kept afloat by low interest rates. The low interest rates have fueled a real estate boom. As housing prices rise, people refinance their mortgages, take equity out of their homes and spend the money, thus keeping the consumer economy going. The massive American trade and budget deficits are covered by the willingness of Asian countries, principally Japan and China, to hold US government bonds and to continue to acquire ownership of America’s real assets in exchange for their penetration of US markets. This game will not go on forever. When it stops, what is left to drive the US economy? Dr. Roberts, [email him] a former Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal and a former Contributing Editor of National Review, was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury during the Reagan administration. He is the author of The Supply-Side Revolution and, with Lawrence M. Stratton, of The Tyranny of Good Intentions : How Prosecutors and Bureaucrats Are Trampling the Constitution in the Name of Justice. Click here for Peter Brimelow’s Forbes Magazine interview with Roberts about the recent epidemic of prosecutorial misconduct. COPYRIGHT CREATORS SYNDICATE, INC. |
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It reads as if the author has no clue how the economy works. |
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Pretty much what I have been saying for the last 15 years.
We are screwing up bad and will pay for it. GM |
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No nation has ever been impoverished by free trade - this is economics 101. I think most of the concern with trade gaps, ect... tends to be overly alarmist. In addition, what is the solution going to be? Tarriffs? We know that those hurt the economy. As long as we have a skilled workforce that produces marketable goods and services we will be fine.
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errrrr..... he is a conservative and has this experience: Dr. Roberts, [email him] a former Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal and a former Contributing Editor of National Review, was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury during the Reagan administration. He is the author of The Supply-Side Revolution and, with Lawrence M. Stratton, of The Tyranny of Good Intentions : How Prosecutors and Bureaucrats Are Trampling the Constitution in the Name of Justice. Click here for Peter Brimelow’s Forbes Magazine interview with Roberts about the recent epidemic of prosecutorial misconduct. ETA: this is why I bitch about how as a country we no longer strive for great things... Moon landings, railroads across the country, interstate highway systems, oil exploration, etc.. The things that drive a country to grow and do better are gone. Right now the money is just shifting around the boat, in a very flat circular motion with no actual growth. |
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No real conservative would blame free trade and large sucessful businesses for some impending economic doom that has been predicted for 30 years and never shows up. |
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SO let me get this straight.
House prices are still climbing Inflation is in check. Jobs are increasing. And we now have more free trade. But the economy sucks? SGatr15 |
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What a crock. When you get a payraise, are you stealing someone elses money? Just because we don't manufacture clothing and most consumables anymore doesn't mean we are not producing anything. The ignorance around here is just astounding. |
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I don't recall liberals complaining when Clinton "created jobs" with his Americorps tripe.
The only people complaining about the economy right now are liberals. I did hope that the Dow would top out over 12,000 by now but since it didn't, it's not exactly a recession. I do agree that we shouldn't be sending jobs overseas. If we continue sending our manufacturing base out of this nation we'll discover how many of us will make it in our new "entertainment" based economy. |
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It's hardly free trade when you have anti-trust laws in this country and keiretsu encouraged in others (to say nothing of unequal tariffs institutionalized in many of our trading "partners" systems, and currencies which were (until a few weeks ago) held artificially low to fund a growing economy) In 50 years we went from the world's largest creditor to the world's largest debtor. We produce only a fraction of what we used to, but if you think we can gamble & litigate our way to prosperity, then more power to you. |
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You need to think your statement through before posting. His point is that since most of the jobs are service, they don't make a real product. When the economy takes a serious turn of the worse, service jobs disappear very quickly. Look at our country's recent history during the depression. The jobs that didn't go away were the ones that produced a real product. The jobs that are being created now don't.
That's a good question. I know three EE's (two great-nephews and my great-niece's husband) that haven't been able find a job in their field for over five years. One graduated from Clemson and the other two from Ga Tech. One was laid-off from IBM, another from NCR, and the third from Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command. Admittedly there's some jobs in Austin, TX and CA, but they haven't found a single thing within an hour or so drive. Colleges keep pumping-out engineers at a faster rate than there are jobs. Also, I've worked in IT on and off (mostly on) for 35 years, and the best job I've been able to find pays $8/hour. Almost no one has the money to do R&D or invest in large software systems any longer.z |
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btw, the ONLY time when the economy is bad is when I am out of work.
When I AND my neighbor is out of work it is a depression. Sgat1r5 |
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That's not it. Everyone in America thinks that they should make $100k a year. Everyone is a specialist or a Guru and they think their time is worth it. People like garbage collectors, retail, service industry, anyone with out a 4 year degree (and even that is worthless in many places). Its the mentality of the people of America that will hurt us more than anything else. The laziness of the American people is what is going to bite us in the ass! The other thing that is going to hurt us is Corp greed. There are people out there making money but only a select few. The owners of these big companies are pushing their employees to work much more overtime and wear many hats. This is where people are working say 2 peoples job and only being compensated for one. The employee cant say anything because they might be out of a job. America has no real big goals like stated above. The dreamers are gone and we just go through the motions now. Everyone wants to cut budget for funding such dreams. And without a goal or a dream we have lost! |
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Exactly my point again, thank you. |
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Mom and pop businesses are overrated. They charge way more, usually in an inconvienent location, Pop is old and cranky, and mom can't tell the difference between a spark plug and heater hose. |
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For a crumbling economy, my economy had record earnings. The economy is changing and people just have to get used to it. Wages aren't rising that fast, but many prices, especially in electronics are falling.
Inflation is legally dead, and interest rates are low, sounds good to me. On the trade imbalance, we are giving other countries paper, and they are giving us goods. I think we are ahead. |
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Well that's it. Mom and Pop want to be the "Jones's" They think their homemade pickles should be worth $5 a piece because its a speciality! Its still a freaking pickle. The people that market products have really led America into believing that anyone can drive a Porsche and live in the Ritz. I live in Miami FL and I see it worse here than most of you all. Every other car here is a BMW M or Porsche that. I can count at least 10 lambo's a day going into work. But say you buy a new BMW M3 sticker is $50k+. Finance that for say 5 years and you put $2k down. Your payment is still going to be around $800 to $900 a month. If you work for say $10 per hour 40 hours a week you get before taxes $400 a week. You almost need to work 4 weeks just to make the payment on the car. Then you got insurance and tires gas etc.... What about a house and family and so on? People are going off of credit and leases. They are not getting anywhere in life. Just looks like they are. Just like the Economy! |
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+1 The economy is doing pretty darn good right now. This guy is full of shit. Even unemployment is starting to head down, and it is not even very high right now.One of the main things you really need to watch for is an accumulation of inventories. That is a big warning sign for an economy heading down. |
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So long as Congress (and the Courts) keep their hands off the economy, everything will work out perfectly in our free market economy.
Free markets are always the hallmark of economic prosperity. All we have to do is to make certain that the 'Chicken Littles' don't convince Congress that it needs to step in and 'direct' our economy. Yep, the 'Mom & Pop' stores of the past are somewhat rare...but what would you expect? What 'Mom & Pop Grocery', which may have been great when the population of Wylie, Texas, was around 500 souls, can supply the food needs of 28,000 souls who now reside in Wylie? Thank God, and Sam Walton (God Rest His Soul), that we have a Wal-Mart Supercenter here! And it's packed 24/7! BTW, Mom & Pop can be found wearing those familar Wal-Mart vests in the Bakery Department and as the 'Greeter', respectively. Eric The(TimesChange,SometimesForThBetter)Hun |
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You will never see inventory like back in the day. No one wants to carry that on their books and America does not want to pay for places to store it. Everything is now JIT "just in time". So you cant go by watching peoples inventory as a marker for the economy.
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Eric,
Even though walmart is a great place to find cheap goods, it is also fueling the fire in China. China is a powerhouse in which America does not even want to fight. We would lose if that ever happened! |
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Engineers are in very high demand over here, we just can't find enough. You just have to give up your rights |
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I'm certainly not an economic expert by any means. But my paycheck and stock portfolios are growing, My brand new house has smaller payments than the old one that preceded it, and there are two 2003 trucks paid for in the driveway.
Of course it helps that the wife makes twice my salary. |
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True (I think), but what standard of living can be maintained? |
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So Target Sears Macy's WalGreens HomeDepot Lowes and so on only sale american made goods while only WalMart sells china crap? Sgat1r5 |
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The last time we had a serious depression was "back in the good old days" when we had a manufacturing economy. The shift to a service economy has insulated ourselves from the severe cycle of recession.
Let the goods be produced cheaper elsewhere. We'll buy them for less and do what we are better at doing. The sky isn't falling. Trade deficits don't matter very much. Mom and Pop stores are dead ends. It's reality. Shake hands and say hello. |
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Sgar1r5 I hear what you are saying and there is really nothing we can do about it but make nicer stuff and sell it cheaper than they do. But then everyone would not be making what they make right now. |
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Yep, its on a bubble now. Unless manufacturing comes back, it doesn't look good to me, anyway. Guess you have to look ahead and ask where it will come from. I can't really see anything on the horizon-
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Hey look at it this way. We are throwing money at China for goods, they are building infrastructure to support it, and buying cars, and burning more and more fuel to do both. This drives up the price of oil, which costs us MORE money, which forces us to buy cheaper and cheaper goods, (all made in China) which causes the Chinese to build more infrastructure....... Until we have our own oil this is going to be a MAJOR economic problem. Oil exploration and infrastructure creation could be our salvation and allow us to build products in the US once more. (once we are rid of unions of course) |
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that is true but America has its own oil mines. My father once owned Poole Oil Services in Oklahoma. They capped many wells because of the price to pump it. But there are still tons of wells in America that still hold million's of barrels of oil. Another problem we have is all the tree hugger that protest and lobby against drilling in America. America's stance is to use up everyone else's then we will have our own. |
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None of the Engineers I know want to have anything to do with California (or Massachusetts, since we are calling states out) - relative in Silicon Valley (Engineer) is GTFOOC next month and cannot wait - too many people, housing prices insane - money's good but quality of life sucks (unless you enjoy being a lab rat) |
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You are certainly correct about America being Red China's Number One Trading Partner...and a place to dump its cheaply-made goods. Which, as far as I'm concerned, is great! Lincoln once said, 'When I make my enemy my friend, I have utterly destroyed my enemy', which could be paraphrased into 'When we make our enemy our largest trading partner, we have utterly destroyed our enemy.' The Chinese 'elite', the so-called 'Princes', who are the children of the ruling Communist clique, live in high-rise apartments in Shanghai and Hong Kong, and invest heavily in Hungry Chinese peasants could support a War with the US. Fat and sassy 'Red' capitalists will not. So, the more we raise the standard of living in Red China, the less likely it will be that we ever have to engage in a war with them. And having the Internet available in Red China will help considerably....as 'censored' as it may be! Eric The(LookingAtTheBigPicture)Hun |
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They have an employers market. There are plenty of candidates to choose from. Of course they want the person who does the work of two people. Why hire two people to do what one can do? Those who are able to make the work happen at a lower cost are valued higher by the organization. This is why managers who successfully cut budgets are treated well by the company. This part of the cycle will never change. I'm one of the people with several different hats, so I know I'm providing a lot of value to my employer. I get paid for the time I work, so I don't think they owe me anything. I've got a job for as long as my employer sees the cost of my time as a good investment for the services I provide. I expect to have to continue to work for their benefit to continue to get paid. I may do more than I have to do for my employer, but this leaves me with a job when there are a lot of other cuts. One problem I've observed is that there are people who fluff up their work to make it look like they're heroic when they're throwing truckloads of money in the trash. These people are creating the need for budget cuts in other areas. There are also those who do the bare minimum necessary to not get fired. They tend to find they're not quite doing the minimum, then complain that they're out of a job. I have a hard time feeling sympathy for these people. Feeling entitled to someone else's money is greed. Whether it's suits screwing over the little guy or the little guy trying to mooch off the company, it's still greed. Companies want people to work, people want to have jobs. If you can find a balance where both parties are in agreement, you're set. Otherwise, everyone's going to be miserable. There is no get rich quick plan that everyone can follow. Be yourself. If I start a cult to teach people how to live within their means, how many will join? |
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Yep, for every two manufacturing jobs that are lost we hire a new waiter, busboy, and prison guard. |
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EricThe Hun, that was a good post . Never kill the golden egg layer. i mean't payer.
If ya do your doomed. |
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Well the other manufacturer job should then take away a job from an illegal immigrant. If illegals are coming here to do the jobs Americans dont want to do, then there's jobs Americans can do |
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i graduated as a mechanical engineer in the fall of 2001. many of my firends graduated with similar degrees (physics, EE, ME, etc.), most of whom still work in the service industry because that's all they could find. i'm no economist or anything, nor do i play one on TV, but when your highly educated can only find jobs that a high-school drop out could have gotten, well, that's not a good indicator in my book. |
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Sounds like you're a good team player........................ |
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Lots of people are good team players, until their turn to bend over comes... |
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And that is exactly the problem. Their jobs are leaving. New workers aren't stupid enough to train in a career area where the jobs are all going out of the country. Jim |
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Exactly.... |
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Many of the engineers I know over 40 cannot find a job, period. |
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That could explain why accounting is now a "hot" major again. That's real added value. |
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First of all, the Bureau does not put those numbers out. I know this because I have many years in the investment industry and called one day to ask where the heck the numbers came from as they didn't make any sense.
The woman I spoke to told me that they don't have numbers at hand. She had no idea what the numbers were but could give me numbers from over 6 months back. All the numbers are made up, much the same way as the budget. www.restoretherepublic.org |
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I must admit I don't understand our economy. If I try to simplize it I suppose it would be like this. ABC auto buys spare parts from China to fix Charlie's car. Charlie works at the restaurant as a waiter. But he used to work at the factory that made auto parts. It closed cos the Chinese ones are cheeper. ABC used to fix all the factory workers cars, but they had to move away. Charlie was lucky to get the job at the restaurant. There used to be two restaurants, but the other one closed when the auto parts factory shut down. Charlie gets his hair cut at the Super Cuts, but this week he can't because business was slow at the restaurant and he needs to get his car fixed. The barber at the Super Cuts had an accident at work and and cut her finger, but she don't have healt care to pay for the stitiches. So, she uses the emergency room and ABC auto's ins premiums go up another 20% that year.
That's the way it looks to me. I sure like it better when we were the preffered supplier of food and goods to the world. Stuff was cheap then and my dad had a good job at the factory to afford it. |
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