Greetings Citizen:  

This is the day we all have been waiting for. We are sharing  
these results with you BEFORE the polls close. Only a few more  
hours to see how this experiment plays out. We thought long  
and hard about whether to release these numbers prior to the  
polls closing. Obviously we decided to send it to our loyal  
community, but not release this to the press.  

We did not want to influence voting behavior and news of a  
landslide might depress voting turn out.  

Believe it or not, there are still some undecided voters as  
of last night. We were up all night crunching the numbers.  
Over 23,000 people participated in this week's national poll.  
Thank you all.  

The winner by a significant margin will be George Bush.  

When it is all said and done, Kerry will have lost for one  
basic reason; HE COULD NOT HOLD ONTO HIS BASE! Black voters  
practically were unanimous for Clinton. But Bush doubled his  
support amongst this group. Even the life-long Democratic black  
mayor of East St. Louis, Carl Officer switched over to Bush.  

As we have said all along, due to overwhelming responses, we  
have decided to keep the community intact. We will have a special  
issue outlining how we can all participate in meaningful ways  
in the near future.  

We have a lot of information to get to you today, so here we  
go. One last VERY warm and personal word of appreciation to  
each and every one of you who have helped make this such  
a wonderful community. We have enjoyed beyond measure working  
with you and look forward to moving forward.  

Total number of polls filled out for dates 10/22-11/1:  

     N = 23,468 Margin of error, +/- .2%  

........ Dem ........Ind ........  Rep .... Total  
Bush ....1445 ...... 3932 ........ 7466 .... 12,843  
Kerry ...7349 ...... 2446 ........  231 .... 10,026  
Nader ...  26 ......  155 ........   13 ....    194  
Undec. ..  97 ......  274 ........   34 ....    405  


Below we have the trends covering the last 4 weeks.  

         4 Weeks ...3 Weeks...2 Weeks. This Week    Change  

Bush  ..... 48.7% .. 51.9% .. 54.0% ... 54.7% ...  +  .7%  
Kerry ..... 47.8% .. 44.6% .. 42.0% ... 42.7% ...  +  .7%  
Nader .....  1.0% ..   .8% ..  1.0% ...   .8% ...  -  .2%  
Undecided .  2.5% ..  2.8% ..  3.0% ...  1.7% ...  - 1.3%  

You can see that Kerry's high watermark was 4 weeks ago after  
the first debate. He has proceeded to implode, almost as if  
he was following a script to lose. Even if ALL of the undecided  
voters break for Kerry at the last minute, he cannot win.

Now we are going to take you a bit behind-the-scenes with  
the numbers. We are taking the party-balanced numbers above  
and re-balance them for CELL PHONE USE.  

It is illegal to poll by cell phone and there are 6 million  
households that EXCLUSIVELY use them. This means that  
they do not have land lines and no poll EXCEPT THIS one will  
balance for CELL PHONE users.  

We also will predict below how the undecideds will break and  
combine this with OTHER third parties (Libertarian, Constitution  
Party, Green, etc.) Cell phone users break FOR Kerry as do  
undecided voters.  

Here is what we found. After balancing all of these factors:  
cell phone users, other third parties, and undecided, below is  
our prediction for the NATIONAL numbers:  

************** Bush  .... 51% of the national vote  
************** Kerry .... 47% of the national vote  
************** Nader ....  1% of the national vote  
************** OTHER ....  1% of the national vote  


        The next President of the United States:  

                     George W. Bush  

One MAJOR Caveat: There are an estimated 30 million NEW  
registered voters in the country. We did NOT poll or  
balance toward this huge pool. IF these break for Kerry in  
a major way, we could be wrong.

We are predicting a significant win for Bush in the popular  
vote. We also will be going on the limb and predict the  
following states will go for Bush:  

Pennsylvania .... Ohio ... Florida ... Iowa ...Arizona  

Many of these are needed for Kerry to win the electoral  
vote.  

Kerry has the following states safely in the win column:  

Illinois ... New York ... Massachusetts ... Delaware  

We are not calling every state. Some of our numbers by  
state are too small to really predict. California is  
closer than many think, but will slide for Kerry.  

The electoral vote for Bush will exceed 300.  

Only Zogby is predicting a Kerry win. We shall soon see.  


        Reader Comments

The Bookies usually predict the outcome better than the  
polls taken.  Bookies have more to lose if they are wrong.  
The polls have nothing to lose. Latest line in the USA-Bush  
59% Kerry 41%; London Bookies have Bush 2 to 1. I've never  
bet nor played a lottery but I know Bookies don't like to  
lose money and don't care who wins the election as much at  
a pollster does.  Let's see who has it right this year, the  
Bookies say Bush! -Dave